preliminary study of the use of the dinamical...

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, 52 2008 2 PRELIMINARY STUDY OF THE USE OF THE DINAMICAL SEASONAL PREDICTIONS IN THE UPSTREAM OF THE TONE RIVER BASIN FOR DROUGHT MANAGEMENT 1 2 3 Tosiyuki NAKAEGAWA, Tamaki YASUDA, and Yuhei TAKAYA 1 ( ) ( 305–0052 1–1) 2 ( ) ( 305–0052 1–1) 3 ( ) ( 100–8122 1–3–4) This study preliminarily examines potential use of the dynamical seasonal prediction with an atmosphere–ocean coupled model for the drought management in the upstream of the Tone River basin. First, linkage between water storage in reservoirs for August and six accumulated-value predictors as precursor is revealed based on the observation data with non-parametric correlation test. In addition, correlation between drought and El Ni˜ no and Southern Oscil- lation phenomena years is examined to be not significant. The ensemble mean of the dynamical seasonal prediction outputs satisfactorily captures the drought years. This result suggests that the dynamical seasonal prediction may pro- vide significant information about improvement in the cost-eectiveness of the the weather modification operations to practitioners. Key Words: dynamical seasonal prediction, drought management, the Tone River basin, ENSO, weather modification 1. , , , 1) , . , , . , , , 2) . , , 30 9 , 2 ,3 1 . , , . , , . , , . , 1994 2002 14 , 3, 4) . , , 30 40% 5) . , , , , . , , , , , . , , , , . , , , , .

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Page 1: PRELIMINARY STUDY OF THE USE OF THE DINAMICAL ...library.jsce.or.jp/jsce/open/00028/2008/52-0517.pdf305–0052 \^]`_abc 1–1) 3 dZLM P (e) QZRgfihjZklCmonprq ([100–8122 sZtZuwvyx^zy{}|~g

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PRELIMINARY STUDY OF THE USE OF THE DINAMICAL SEASONALPREDICTIONS IN THE UPSTREAM OF THE TONE RIVER BASIN FOR

DROUGHT MANAGEMENT

2436587:9 1 ;=<?>A@CB 2 ;EDGFIH:J 3

Tosiyuki NAKAEGAWA, Tamaki YASUDA, and Yuhei TAKAYA

1 K�L�MON�P (��

) Q�RS�T�U6VXW�S�TZY ( [ 305–0052 \^]`_�a�b�c 1–1)2 dZL�MON�P ( e � ) Q�RS�T�U6VXW�S�TZY ( [ 305–0052 \^]`_�a�b�c 1–1)

3 dZL�M � P ( e � ) QZRgfih�jZk�lCmon�prq ( [ 100–8122 sZtZuwvyx^zy{}|�~g� 1–3–4)

This study preliminarily examines potential use of the dynamical seasonal prediction with an atmosphere–oceancoupled model for the drought management in the upstream of the Tone River basin. First, linkage between waterstorage in reservoirs for August and six accumulated-value predictors as precursor is revealed based on the observationdata with non-parametric correlation test. In addition, correlation between drought and El Nino and Southern Oscil-lation phenomena years is examined to be not significant. The ensemble mean of the dynamical seasonal predictionoutputs satisfactorily captures the drought years. This result suggests that the dynamical seasonal prediction may pro-vide significant information about improvement in the cost-effectiveness of the the weather modification operations topractitioners.

Key Words: dynamical seasonal prediction, drought management, the Tone River basin, ENSO,

weather modification

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PENSO

J( L ,–) y u P ¬ b ��e

y�Þ ¢ .M`N^] U v

, _ X ¿ e��6� �`� p 1994J °¶±

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J Î U�ê ~]} , ` ê e�Í`Î (2–8 � , 6–8 � )

e!²6³ Ú n   e�a�b�e=b=S ��Þ � } V p . ��e \k� eENSO

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e^u`e 5 °���v�w Å#Æ ¿ 14) y�� ~�}=~ p . x�t ��y�ze V � b , 1995

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J6J t 0 � ,

2 D J 14J t 7 �P ã p . El Nino

J v8J t 3,4 � ,

2 D J v 14J t 7,8

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�-4 2–8 ������������ ������������ 2–8 ����� SST ���������� �! "�#%$%& . :(;�'�' (1994–2005 $ ). *�,(*)+�, "�- –2 <�.0/ . 1�2�3 +�) 5% 4%5(-�6!" 0.55.

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J °± P=<8> ¢ p P , 1973, 78

J PLa Nina

J U m=n Q ~ ¦}#~ p.u#b

, 1996J v

La NinaJ`� v ã ~ Q , ? ~ La

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J U v m=n Q ~ ¦ ã ~ Vp ~ v, }�~BA]× Q âkã ~ P ~ �.e vDC�� � V � , ��eE ×Oe�Í`Î � v , µ�e J �!¥ ¦ E ×Oe qRr � }�~Ø�GF pP � { p e Q*H o � V p .Û

–4U

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��RS ð 5%

x È�n ¨ v 0.55� V p

. NINO.3 n|y�T�¬ , UV*W0X Å*Y P MNP v%Z � , � aOu � ë�ì�� } � b ENSO

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m�nke SST� ð#ñ _Haip ENSO >=Ý������ , �!e*c�n

e SSTP c�e ¢ Ô � P � { p °k�k� a ã ~ . �!eDc�n

e SST E0d`e�� �Qe w Pgfih e�j�kke�MhP Q å ~ � PvQl ��m�± a }#~ p Q , �+°�� , � a ±�eC� X������ vENSO >CÝ U �!� } ýQn _�a }Bo � , ENSO >�Ý|�����Z ~

. ¯�� } , � X P ~ �=p c °¶± , �!eDc�n�e SSTP

Ú n   e,P'Q|y�Ó�Ô } � x È�ñ�ã Y=Z v FÕ± a ã ~ .

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,x R ¢ p%y Etz i v , {#á8|�ã�}Q~ Ï y Egz

e b ¬ ,> Í�� X�U o�~R} v , ��Í ¿ U�æ uCaip�� u Q&t� _a, _ X � u E ×`e � u U �C� } ,

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SST�J� � , SST

��� � ��wa�Cü � � , ��� ���� eå ~ >#Ý�� ENSO

�g� p. ��e ENSO >#Ý � m=n � P

Q��CÙ ~ ��¢ a`� , 3�5�s6�7 � §Q� �(Á \(Â�\�Ã�Ä�ÅÆ,¢ ã ö �k��ðCìRs�ã�º#»��B� v {�D � ; � ~ � £Oö� p Fkã ~ .

��e`���Hã�� ¼ v , CGCM�

SST �D� À � �Q� _ab � � bCc=� � M�o ¢ p _g� SST y�� { b ü � À0N �k��,! Ä (AGCM)

¼�½ � ��Þ _+a }]~ p . Nakaegawa

± 17, 18, 19) e!Ö���e��t� � v ,f h n�e�nJ¡D¢ � P'Q ¢p

,Ú n   , £D¤�n Ï   ,

���� , ¥,� �R `v , Á \�Â�\Ã�ÄOÅ�Æ y`��� } �J� �+¢ p�c�� ,

� ü � � ÀJ¦ � e50%E × �°���� �R� ã ~ � � ��Þ _.a }�o � , Ë0§ �R Ô b ENSO >#Ý � m�n�e*? ~Q¨ � P4Q � Û –4

v, �

e � ì ¿ y%©8ª Ð p _g�8� ¼ �g� p .uB«, º=»��B� v , ¬ K e=>�Ý � ãN� , dD­ ±He Å�Æ y® ãC�Q����Ý ��¢ p e � , m=niy%¯t° ¢ p �|�ã , ±�²

E*³Õ� ~ Ë�á e w`ã�µ�`� « ± ¢ 1 ´JµRy , ��� ¢ p �� �%{�D � ; � ~ . ¬ K e=>�Ýke [ > � °Ø±ª «*¶�� ,

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ü � –m Y0È#� �! Ä y�� ~ « º=»��*�t� x �6ã �=� y� « ± ¢ ° ��ê ~�} §BÉ sRã SQÊ y���� « .u^B

, 8 �a Å#Æ�Ë0ÁR  ��Ì ­ ��Í � ¢ Æ |�º�°|±Gκ � ° Ð } ÂC�8�,f�g � Â�P4Q|y'_g� ¿ °�±kA�±+° �� « . sR�O°�± 8 ��Ï � Â�²�³ Ú ÁO aÐ , 8 � Å=Æ�ËgÁ  �

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»]��� ¼#½ È�Ò y�� ~=} ,{ º Á ¡�¢   Â!�*� ����Ó�ê ~]} S*Ê � « . Ï B , ù�ÔLÂ�Ç ÁQÕ � , ð � Ñ � [ >¸·

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. Ï « , 90ÕJæ�ç ÂDÇ Á ÂDÛ0�0è8é Ð , ê8ÔÀÂ��

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, Ç ÁBÕ � ENSOÕ Â �������������G­ «�ÈBÒ Ö��� á « � , �� Õ , El Nino

Õ, La Nina

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+gÜ Æ�� * �gÑJô Á������ Û� 3� á�ã 0�2�Ö , � ���� ��� á�6LÞ��12 äÓå�� 17, 18, 19).��� Õ

, � � Õ +���� ��� , �� "! ç�# +tÜ � � ��"� �%$�&('*)�+�/ � 2 , ,�- +�ô�õ�â � ��� 3�. /��0�132, 4�5Lô*6 �87:9�;=< 1 � +�> �?< 1@� . A�B %

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E ;�G B�H�3�ßJàgñ�o � 0 2�3�p�q < 1r� . s�t 7 , ! ç�uwv ç�# +NS � � ��N� ��$& G�x '�yYz 2Já�6� ��G�x +:{�� � E ; 2}|��*B�HY' , l��N��~��`�'��z*â%��� á , ��� M + C�I�5�+bJ�K 3%L í ��'b����/ �0 2�3 , T�� � 0 � í .

����� O�P�Q 7 , ����� 9�� � 9 ����W�� E ��� ��G�x�56 z��% �! çu�v ç�# +5�8/ ��� L M P�Q�� ( �� : UVP�Q��� �� � ) +�S �b ¡ 'b¢8nDâ�£3� 1 6 .

9�¤¥8¦�§ �*¨ \�[N© 7 , ª�«�¬�� � �*­�®�¯�®�¯��°"±���²��³3'b¢3n�6DC�� � , 0*� � i�´�µ + 7 ã�� 0 ( ¶ ) ·¸

, ¹ ¸�º» +%¼ 7 ã�6�.�ã�6 . o�6�����������½N¾+7 � 0��$����¿�À1+ GÂÁ â�Ã�Ä�Å M �8Æ�� � M # ô�ý) '*Çgã�6�ÈR�L É \Ê +�S � -X l���)�Ë 7 , U�VP Q��Ì�LÍ

�� �PNQ � ÷�U�Î�Ï�R�L�-�X�l���É \�Ê 2�|���Ð ^%Ñ^%Ò%Ê : ;���Ó ! + �'/ � P�Q�����Ô�� , Õ�Ö�U�×�P Qû�Ø �*-�X�l�Ù ©�Ú Û�Ü�Ý�[�Ú ( The WCRP Task Force

on Seasonal Prediction (TSFP)) ��ª�Þ�ß ë P Q�+:à�&�/� 6 z�+b£N� 1 6 .ëÓì ò�Ì�LÍ��� %P Q �âáãON�$(�

U V8��)�ä�åNæ�U�×"ç�è 2b���%¨ +��$/ � PNQ��"��Ô� , (� �U�V 2�� � ���:¨�þ +�é�ê�ë%W�ì�/ �mí�î '��6 . 0 0$+ , üQý�ïtô�ÿ��8' Á ëÀò�. < õ$6 , 0 1 �Fð"ñò ó Û�ô à&�õ�+bö ÷�ø Á o$/ .ù t�+ , 0��8����+ GúÁ ë�û�ü M ��éý�þLôNÿ�� ^?ô'�Ô < õ56 3 �Y��ì���õ�+bö�÷�ø Á o$/ .

�����1) IPCC, editor. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, chapter 11.

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