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 23 MAY  27 MAY 2016 \ WE E K L Y R E P O R T Blow by Blow On Bullions, Base metals, Energy… WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM 

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23 MAY – 27 MAY 2016

\

W E E K L Y

R

EP

O

R

Blow by BlowOn

Bullions,

Base metals,

Energy… 

WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM 

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AJOR EVENTSold prices fell on Friday, reversing earlier gains as the U.S. dollar strengthened and

vestors weighed the possibility of an interest-rate increase next month. Gold for

ne delivery settled down 0.2% at $1,252.90 a troy ounce on the COMEX division of

e New York Mercantile Exchange, after trading as high as $1,261.20 earlier in the

ssion. Friday marked the precious metal’s third straight day of losses. 

old prices have suffered this week after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last

olicy meeting, released Wednesday, showed officials were considering raising

terest rates at their next meeting in June, if economic data displayed strong growth

the U.S. Higher rates generally weigh on gold prices, because the metal pays its

olders nothing and struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when borrowing

sts rise.

e precious metal has risen 18% year to date, as economic uncertainty has sent

vestors to haven assets. The Fed has also signaled that it will be slow to raise

terest rates this year, which further boosted gold prices.

ude prices remain steady, as the commodity touched a high of $49.20 on Friday, its

ghest level since October 2015. Crude Oil Inventories, a weekly release, have postedclines only twice since February, as US crude stockpiles remain at high levels.

vertheless, oil prices have remained climbed in recent weeks, in large part a result

production problems such as the massive wildfire in Alberta and disruptions in

ya and Nigeria. As well, the US economy appears to have recovered from a weak

st quarter, thus increasing demand for oil and boosting crude prices. The highly-

ticipated Federal Reserve minutes were more hawkish than expected. The minutes

dicated that a June rate hike remains firmly on the table, and the currency markets

ve reacted with strong volatility. According to the minutes, the Fed wants to see

onger growth in the second quarter as well as better numbers from the inflation

d employment fronts. If this is achieved, the Fed said it “likely would be

propriate” to raise rates at the June meeting. This message is somewhat hawkish in

mparison to recent statements by Fed chair Janet Yellen, which were more cautious

out the strength of the US economy.

Crude Touches

Month Highs, U

Housing Repor

Shines. 

Copper price fa

to 3-month lo

defies bullish

forecasts.

pper prices are likely to remain low for at least the next two years, as prices for the

dustrial metal fell to their lowest level since February. The market is likely to be in a

rplus of around 300,000 tons this year and next as growth in China’s demand slows

just over 2 per cent. Commodity prices have retreated from their March highs after

estimated $1tn surge in credit in China in the first quarter pushed up imports to

cord levels.

her metals from nickel to zinc and aluminum also dropped on Thursday as the

llar rebounded to a seven-week high against a basket of major currencies. Copper

ces have dropped by more than half since early 2011 when they peaked at over

0,000 a ton as miners struggled to meet demand. Strong imports of copper into

ina at the beginning of this year have led to a build-up of stocks in the country that

l take longer to draw down than for other metals. Stocks of copper in China have

en by around 300,000 tons this year.

e copper market is struggling with too much supply as miners from Chile to Africa

d China have kept up production. New mines in Peru have also started to ship

pper to the market just as demand weakens.

Gold Prices Dro

as Dollar

Strengthens.

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E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R

DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS

May 23 3:45pmFOMC Member Bullard Speaks

7:15pmFlash Manufacturing PMI 51.0 50.8

May 24 7:30pmNew Home Sales 521K 511K

7:30pmRichmond Manufacturing Index 9 14

May 25 6:00pmGoods Trade Balance -60.1B -56.9B

6:30pmHPI m/m 0.4% 0.4%

7:15pmFlash Services PMI 53.1 52.8

8:00pmCrude Oil Inventories 1.3M

May 26 2:45pmFOMC Member Bullard Speaks

6:00pmCore Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.3% -0.2%

6:00pmUnemployment Claims 275K 278K

6:00pmDurable Goods Orders m/m 0.3% 0.8%

7:30pm

Pending Home Sales m/m0.6% 1.4%

8:00pmNatural Gas Storage 73B

May 27 6:00pmPrelim GDP q/q 0.8% 0.5%

6:00pmPrelim GDP Price Index q/q 0.7% 0.7%

7:30pmRevised UoM Consumer Sentiment 95.7 95.8

7:30pmRevised UoM Inflation Expectations 2.5%

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S1 S2 S3 R1 R2

29600 29085 28570 30150 30550 3

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2

39450 38500 37500 40800 41650 4

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX GOLD showed sideways to

negative movement and trading

activity was also lower as compared to

last week. Gold is closed near to

important support level of 29600.

Now, if it continues bearish movement

then it may find strong support of

29150 and on higher side 30000 will

act as major resistance level above

which next resistance will be seen

around 30500.

S T R A T E G Y

Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy

above 30100 for the targets of 30600,

with stop loss of 29500.

PIVOT TABLE

G O L D

PIVOT TABLE

S I L V E R

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX SILVER last week showed bearish

movement and broke its important

weekly support level of 40500 and

closed below its psychological support

level of 40000. Now, for upcoming

sessions 39500 will act as strong

support level for it, if it sustains below

it then 38500 would be next supportlevel. On the other hand 41000 will act

as vital resistance level.

S T R A T E G Y

Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

point of time is to sell below 39400 for

the target of 37800, with stop loss of

41100.

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 C R U D E O I L

C O P P E R

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2

3200 3110 3025 3335 3450 3

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2

305.70 301 296.25  314.10 318.50 3

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Copper last week showed

sideways movement in all trading

session and traded around its daily

support level od 305. Now, 305 will act

as immediate support level for it,if it

sustain below this then 300 will act as

next support level. And on the other

hand 315 will be major resistance level

above which it may pull upto

resistance level of 325.

S T R A T E G Y

Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to

buy above 3350 for the target of 3500,

with stop loss of 3150.

PIVOT TABLE

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Crude oil showed strong bullish

movement last week and break its

important resistance level of 3200 on

daily chart and closed around 3300.Now, 3350 will act as vital resistance

for it above which it may find next

resistance around 3500. On lower side,

some correction will drag it towards

the support level of 3130.

S T R A T E G Y

Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to buy

above 315, with stop loss of 305 for the

target of 325.

PIVOT TABLE

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