Prepare For The WorstPrepare For The Worst

Hope For The BestHope For The Best

Potential and somewhat probable Potential and somewhat probable “worst case disasters” include:“worst case disasters” include:

EpidemicsEpidemics TerrorismTerrorism TsunamisTsunamis EarthquakesEarthquakes HurricanesHurricanes Flash FloodsFlash Floods Dam FailuresDam Failures

Science Advisory Working GroupScience Advisory Working Group

Provide information relevant to Provide information relevant to improvements in tsunami hazard improvements in tsunami hazard mitigationmitigation

Topic For The DayTopic For The Day

““REVISIONS TO EXISTING INUNDATION ZONES”REVISIONS TO EXISTING INUNDATION ZONES”

Data Used For Existing ZonesData Used For Existing Zones

1946 Aleutians1946 Aleutians 1952 Kamchatka1952 Kamchatka 1957 Aleutians1957 Aleutians 1960 Chile1960 Chile 1964 Alaska1964 Alaska

Figure 1

Question:Question:

Are existing zones adequate?Are existing zones adequate?

Keys To An Answer:Keys To An Answer:

Historical DataHistorical Data

ModelingModeling

TABLE 1TABLE 1Largest Runups and Other Runup Values of Interest in the Largest Runups and Other Runup Values of Interest in the

Hawaiian Islands for Large Pacific-Wide Tsunamis*Hawaiian Islands for Large Pacific-Wide Tsunamis*

TABLE 1 (Cont.)TABLE 1 (Cont.)Largest Runups and Other Runup Values of Interest in the Largest Runups and Other Runup Values of Interest in the

Hawaiian Islands for Large Pacific-Wide Tsunamis*Hawaiian Islands for Large Pacific-Wide Tsunamis*

TABLE 1 (Cont.)TABLE 1 (Cont.)Largest Runups and Other Runup Values of Interest in the Largest Runups and Other Runup Values of Interest in the

Hawaiian Islands for Large Pacific-Wide Tsunamis*Hawaiian Islands for Large Pacific-Wide Tsunamis*

ConclusionConclusion

Bays, streambeds, valleys, low lying Bays, streambeds, valleys, low lying areas, and other inland waterways areas, and other inland waterways may be especially dangerousmay be especially dangerous

Figure 2

TABLE 2TABLE 2Comparative Runup Values in Feet for Northern Facing Coastlines in Comparative Runup Values in Feet for Northern Facing Coastlines in

the Hawaiian Islands for Major Tsunamis Originating in the the Hawaiian Islands for Major Tsunamis Originating in the North Pacific*North Pacific*

Implications For ModelingImplications For Modeling

Model everywhere?Model everywhere?

Model many places?Model many places?

Model at all?Model at all?

TABLE 3TABLE 3Maximum Reported Runups of 15 or More Meters Near the Source Maximum Reported Runups of 15 or More Meters Near the Source

Locations of Large Earthquakes Along Margins of the Pacific, Locations of Large Earthquakes Along Margins of the Pacific, and Maximum Runups in the Hawaiian Islands for Those Tsunamis*and Maximum Runups in the Hawaiian Islands for Those Tsunamis*

Figure 3

ConclusionConclusion

WE NEED TO MODELWE NEED TO MODEL

What Model?What Model?

FaiFai MaderMader MOSTMOST KowalikKowalik JapanJapan OthersOthers

Essential RequirementsEssential Requirements Curved EarthCurved Earth Detailed BathymetryDetailed Bathymetry ReflectionsReflections RefractionsRefractions Multiple WavesMultiple Waves Waves on WavesWaves on Waves Inflow & OutflowInflow & Outflow Multiple SourcesMultiple Sources Variable FrictionVariable Friction Time FactorsTime Factors

Modeling LimitationsModeling Limitations

Earthquake Source Earthquake Source ≠ Tsunami Source ≠ Tsunami Source

Reasonable “Worst Case” Reasonable “Worst Case” Ocean Surface Displacement in the Ocean Surface Displacement in the

Source AreaSource Area

Table 4

Figure 4

Figure 5

Figure 6

Figure 7

Figure 8

Kowalik et al.Kowalik et al.Off-Shore Wave HeightsOff-Shore Wave Heights

LocationLocation Wave HeightWave Height

(meters)(meters)

Maximum Measured Maximum Measured Runups* (meters)Runups* (meters)

IndonesiaIndonesia 15.515.5 50.9, 48.9, 35.7, 34.950.9, 48.9, 35.7, 34.9

ThailandThailand 9.39.3 19.619.6

Sri LankaSri Lanka 8.18.1 11.311.3

E. AfricaE. Africa 3.33.3 9.59.5

* NGDC Data

TABLE 3TABLE 3Maximum Reported Runups of 15 or More Meters Near the Source Maximum Reported Runups of 15 or More Meters Near the Source

Locations of Large Earthquakes Along Margins of the Pacific, Locations of Large Earthquakes Along Margins of the Pacific, and Maximum Runups in the Hawaiian Islands for Those Tsunamis*and Maximum Runups in the Hawaiian Islands for Those Tsunamis*

ConclusionConclusion

Reasonable “worst case” source area sea Reasonable “worst case” source area sea surface displacement parameterssurface displacement parameters

Length:Length: 1000 km1000 km

Width:Width: 200 km200 km

Wave Height To Ocean:Wave Height To Ocean: 15 m15 m

Wave Height To Land:Wave Height To Land: 15 m15 m

Period:Period: 15 to 30 minutes15 to 30 minutes

Figure 9

Figure 10

Figure 11

Figure 12