preparing for deely closure - cps energy...dec 28, 2018 · 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 w)...
TRANSCRIPT
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PREPARING FOR DEELY CLOSURE
INTRODUCTION BY :Paula Gold-Williams
President & CEO
PRESENTED BY :Benny Ethridge
Senior Vice President, Power Generation
December 28, 2018
I n f o rma t i ona l Upda t e
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AGENDA
• DECISION IN 2011
• ALIGNMENT WITH FLEX PATH
• PREPARING FOR CLOSURE
• RESERVE MARGIN
• YEAR-END ACCOUNTING ENTRY
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OUR DECISION IN 2011
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After years of intensive strategic & financial analysis, management decided to retire 2 older coal units. The PRIMARY REASONS:
• $600M required SO2 scrubber upgrade
• Future regulatory uncertainty & cost
• Competition from low-cost, gas generation, driven by the shale gas revolution
Data as of November 2018
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OUR JOURNEY
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SIGNIFICANT MILESTONES
2012 2013 2015 2018
Decommissioning Planning Begins
Engaging Employees
- Monthly Meetings- Work Groups
Notice to ERCOT of Intent
to Mothball Deely Units
Decision to Close
Deely Units
Purchased Rio Nogales Power Plant
(3 X 1 Combined Cycle Natural Gas)
2019
Begin Plant LayupEmployee Transitions
Dec. 31Cease
Generating Power
June 2019Unit
Layup Complete
Plant Preservation
Planning
2011
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PREPARING FOR CLOSURE
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2015 2018
Decommissioning planning begins
Engaging Employees
- Monthly meetings- Work groups
Dec. 31Cease
Generating Power
Temporary contractors, who have been used for
several years, will be reduced so that the Deely employees can move to other permanent jobs
across our organization.
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LOOKING AHEAD TO THE FUTURE
CPS Energy is also analyzing
potential future use of the
Deely footprint & the Calaveras site in general.
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Solar – 450 MWRio Nogales Plant – 800 MWSTEP & Distributed
Generation
We will continue to pursue diverse solutions going forward.
REPLACEMENT CAPACITYSTEP + GAS + RENEWABLES
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DIVERSE PORTFOLIOFLEX PATH
• Flexibility
• Diversity
• Dynamic
• Integrated
• Optimized
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29% 27% 33% 33% 14% 13% 15%
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Capacity (
MW
)
Year
CPS Energy Peak Load & Resources
Resources Peak Load Including Wholesale
Reserve Margin
Peak Load Requirements
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OUR RESERVE MARGIN
Although lower, we will continue to have solid reserves to meet obligations through 2024.
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ERCOTRESERVE MARGIN
ERCOT factored in the Deely deactivation years ago. Excluding any issues that may develop with transmission, ERCOT remains focused on allowing the market to function without regulatory
intervention, as was the case in 2018.
21.8%
15.9%12.1% 13.2% 13.8% 15.7% 16.5% 16.9%
9.3% 8.1%
11.0% *
13.75% Target
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Reserve M
arg
in (
%)
ERCOT Annual CDR Forecast - Calendar Year
ERCOT Reserve Forecasts
% Reserve 13.75% Target
* The May 2018 CDR forecast of 11.0% was decreased to 8.1% in the updated Dec 2018 CDR forecast.
Tighter reserve margin in ERCOT could result in higher wholesale
prices this summer.
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FINANCIAL IMPACT OF DEELY WRITE-OFF
• Given the decision to close the Deely units, it is appropriate for CPS Energy to write-off the projected $186 million book value as of 1/31/19 related to Deely
• The write-off would be treated as a Special or Impairment Item & would be written off below net income
• Additionally, the write-off would be a non-cash item
• Financial impact would be to increase the projected Debt Percent from 61.2% to 62.4% as of 1/31/19. No impact to Debt Service Coverage or Days Cash on Hand.
(1) Excl. impact of $186M write-off(2) Incl. impact of $186M write-off
PROJECTION: We will be slightly above the plan after the write-off, 0.2%, or 20bps.
The write-off will help to improve our financial performance in future years, as depreciation will be lower.
(1)
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SUMMARY• We are on track to cease commercial operation of our Deely Units on
12/31/18, as was originally planned in 2011
• Deely’s capacity has been replaced by that of our Rio Nogales, gas-fired units, strategically purchased in 2012
• On average, Rio Nogales has been & is projected to be very economical, especially since gas prices have been lower & less volatile for years
• We also control our community’s energy needs through our successful energy efficiency & conservation program (called STEP)
• We will continue to have notable excess energy capacity for 2019
As part of our Flexible Path, we are currently assessing future generation / energy supply options.
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Questions?
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GLOSSARYTerm
Acronym (if applicable) Definition
Basis Point Spread
bps
Basis point spread (BPS) refers to a common unit of measure for interest rates and other percentages in finance. One basis point is equal to 1/100th of 1%, or 0.01%, or 0.0001, and is used to denote the percentage change in the financial arena. The relationship between percentage changes and basis points can be summarized as follows: 1% change = 100 basis points, and 0.01% = 1 basis point.
Capacity, Demand & Reserves
CDRPeriodically, ERCOT issues a public report that projects these market metrics for future months.
Decommissioning -Planned shut-down and permanent removal from service of equipment, plant, etc.
Electric Reliability Council of Texas
ERCOTEntity that manages the flow of electric power on the Texas Interconnection that supplies power to Texas customers - representing 85% of the state's electric load.
Layup / Mothball -The deactivation and preservation of equipment / production facility to prevent corrosion damage and allow for future return to service.
Peak Load - The maximum periodic load demand imposed on a power supply system.
Save for Tomorrow Energy
PlanSTEP
CPS Energy’s energy efficiency and conservation program. It includes a highly effective demand response component that is successfully supported by a high level of customer participation.
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GLOSSARYTerm
Acronym (if applicable) Definition
Sulphur Dioxide SO2
A colorless gas or liquid with a strong odor. Sulfur Dioxide is produced by burning fuels that contain sulfur such as coal and oil. Power plants, steel mills, refineries, smelters, and paper mills are the largest producers. Sulfur Dioxide is a primary contributor to acid rain, contributes to regional visibility impairment, and in high concentrations may aggravate existing respiratory and cardiovascular disease. (CPS Energy uses low sulfur and ultra low sulfur Powder River Basin sulfur coals).
ResourcesElectrical Generation facilities available to meet Customer demand on an as-needed basis.
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TIMELINE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL/REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS FOR THE UTILITY INDUSTRY
Ozone
2010
MATS
proposed
PM-2.5
NAAQS
Revision
Ozone
NAAQS
Revision
SO2
Primary
NAAQS
SO2/NO2
Secondary
NAAQS
SO2/NO2/BART
New PM-2.5
NAAQS
Designations
Hg/HAPS
MATS Rule
FinalMATS
Compliance
Starts
CAIR/CSAPR
316(b) proposed
rule
316(b) final
rule issued
316(b) Compliance - Depends on
Permitting Authority discretion
Effluent
Guidelines
Proposed
Water
Effluent
Guidelines
Final Rule
Effluent Guidelines
Compliance 3-5 yrs
after final rule 2020 to
2023)
Begin Compliance
Requirements
under Final CCR
Rule
Ash
Proposed Rule for
CCRs Management
Final Rule for CCRs
Mgmt
Final CSAPR
Rule
CO2/GHGs
Revised
Ozone
NAAQS
cancelled
NSPS GHGs for New Units proposed
CSAPR remanded
CAIR still effective
Earlies compliance
date for Effluent
Guidelines
Limitations Rule
Ozone
Nonattainment
Designation for
Bexar County
Clean Power
Plan finalized
NO2
Primary
NAAQS
CAIR
Phase I
Proposed CAIR
Replacement
Rule (CSAPR)
PM
CSAPR Rule on
Hold/CAIR still
in place
CSAPR
Start
Proposed rule to
repeal Clean
Power Plan
Ozone
Nonattainment
SIPS/Compliance
for Marginal
areas
Texas removed
from CSAPR
Annual NOx
and SO2
Revised
CSAPR Ozone
Season
Program StartsRevised
CSAPR
Ozone Season
Final
BART/
Regional
Haze SO2
Trading
Proposed
Affordable
Clean
Energy Rule
Final Rule to
amend CCR
Rule
2020
Significant additional investment on the horizon.