Strategic sourcing in a tighter and more volatile market

Carel van der Hamsvoort, Rabobank International28 April 2012

Rabobank International

Tighter and more volatile markets

Rabobank International2Source: Bloomberg, CBOT, Rabobank 2011

Global F&A demand keeps rising fast …

Rabobank International

+34%

+29%

+25%

+23%

21%

30%

34%

40%

34% 25%

Source: Rabobank based on FAPRI, FAO, USDA, EC, OECD

40%

• Population growth 2020• China + 4%• India +12%• EU27 + 2%

• Economic growth 2020• China + 8% pa• EU27 + 2% pa

China Commodity Short

Rabobank International

… but supply is struggling to keep up

Rabobank International5Source: FAO, Rabobank 2011

Ha p

er

capit

a (

20

10

)

The battle for raw materials

Rabobank International

Commodity colonialisation

If you are not in, are you out?

Rabobank International

Application Knowledge

Access toConsumer

ProductionEfficiency

Controlled supply, not the end-game!

Rabobank International

FOOD FOOD

NATURAL RESOURCES

NATURAL RESOURCES

20102050

Thank you for your attention

28 April 2012

Rabobank International

Potential to increase yields

Rabobank International10Source: World Bank 2010

Best soils in the US (Midwest), Ukraine and Argentina

Rabobank InternationalSource: USDA

Climate also determines production potential

Rabobank International

Highest yields also determined by ‘enabling environment’

Rabobank International