presentation 2q15 - cpfl energia
TRANSCRIPT
2Q15 Results
2
This presentation may contain statements that represent expectations about future events or results according to Brazilian and international securities regulators. These statements are based on certain assumptions and analyses made by the Company pursuant to its experience and the economic environment, market conditions and expected future events, many of which are beyond the Company's control. Important factors that could lead to significant differences between actual results and expectations about future events or results include the Company's business strategy, Brazilian and international economic conditions, technology, financial strategy, developments in the utilities industry, hydrological conditions, financial market conditions, uncertainty regarding the results of future operations, plans, objectives, expectations and intentions, among others. Considering these factors, the Company's actual results may differ materially from those indicated or implied in forward-looking statements about future events or results. The information and opinions contained herein should not be construed as a recommendation to potential investors and no investment decision should be based on the truthfulness, timeliness or completeness of such information or opinions. None of the advisors to the company or parties related to them or their representatives shall be liable for any losses that may result from the use or contents of this presentation. This material includes forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties, which are based on current expectations and projections about future events and trends that may affect the Company's business. These statements may include projections of economic growth, demand, energy supply, as well as information about its competitive position, the regulatory environment, potential growth opportunities and other matters. Many factors could adversely affect the estimates and assumptions on which these statements are based.
Disclaimer
3
2Q15 Highlights
• Sales dropped 2.9% in the concession area - residential (-1.5%), comercial (+0.6%) and industrial (-5.4%)
• Investments of R$ 382 million in 2Q15 and R$ 713 million in 1H15
• RGE’s tariff adjustment on June 2015. The effect in parcel B is 2.84%.
• Standard&Poor’s reaffirmed the rating brAA+ with stable outlook for CPFL Energia and its subsidiaries
• CPFL Energia’s shares were down 2.9% on BM&FBOVESPA and 3.7% on NYSE in 2Q15
• Best company of the year on Power Market assigned by Época NEGÓCIOS 360º
• CPFL Santa Cruz took the first place in continuity services ranking in 2014, listed by ANEEL (large distributors – over 1TWh)
• Winner of Abradee Award 2015 in two categories: customer evaluation (CPFL Paulista) and social responsability (RGE)
Resid.
+0.6%
-5.4% -2.4% -2.9%
Commerc. Indust. Others 2Q14 2Q15
-1.5%
Sales in the concession area | GWh
Sales by consumption segment | GWh
14,621 14,191
-4.2%
TUSD
-2.9%
-2.4%
3,127 3,129 +0.1%
-2.2%
+5.7%
4
+2.1%
-1.4%
Generation Installed Capacity¹ | MW
Sales growth in the concession area | Comparison by region | %
Contracted Demand l MW
1) Take into account CPFL Energia’s 51.6% stake in CPFL Renováveis
Captive market (Distribution)
Renewable Conventional
2Q15 Energy Sales
Market Breakdown in the Concession Area| 2Q15
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2Q10 2Q11 2Q12 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15
82.983.9
80
100
120
140
Jan-1
0
May-1
0
Sep-1
0
Jan-1
1
May-1
1
Sep-1
1
Jan-1
2
May-1
2
Sep-1
2
Jan-1
3
May-1
3
Sep-1
3
Jan-1
4
May-1
4
Sep-1
4
Jan-1
5
May-1
5
Confiança do Consumidor
Taxa média 2008-2014
7.4
4.5
6.3
Jan-1
0
Apr-
10
Jul-10
Oct-
10
Jan-1
1
Apr-
11
Jul-11
Oct-
11
Jan-1
2
Apr-
12
Jul-12
Oct-
12
Jan-1
3
Apr-
13
Jul-13
Oct-
13
Jan-1
4
Apr-
14
Jul-14
Oct-
14
Jan-1
5
Apr-
15
67% 1Q
10
2Q
10
3Q
10
4Q
10
1Q
11
2Q
11
3Q
11
4Q
11
1Q
12
2Q
12
3Q
12
4Q
12
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
2.4
%
1.9
% 4.1
%
1.2
%
-0.2
%
0.6
%
2.9
%
-1.3
%
3.2
%
2.5
%
0.0
% 1.5
%
-0.4
%
0.8
%
0.8
%
0.5
%
1.3
%
0.4
%
-0.1
%
1.3
%
-2.7
%
-4.6
%
1) Source: PME/IBGE - New Metodology; 2) Economically Active Population 3) Quarter compared to the same quarter last year 4) Source: FGV
Unemployment Rate¹ | % of EAP²
Consumer Confidence Index4 Index Base Sep/2005 = 100
Income Mass³
Average price variation (%) | in R$/MWh Residential of the CPFL Energia
5
Unfavorable economic environment and strong higher tariffs inhibit residential consumption
Tariff Flags (Red)
48%
19%
RTE/RTA
Confidence Consumer
Average Rate 2008-2014
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15
4.3
1.8 2.03.0
1.6 2.3 2.2 1.7 2.1 2.13.2 3.7
6.0
2.3
-0.7 -0.3-1.3
-5.3
1) Number of days and temperature adjustmens
Consumption per residential customer | Quarter compared to the same quarter last year (%)¹
Residential costumers Evolution | In thousands
6
Breakdown of electrical equipment in total residential consumption | In % (2Q14)
2Q14 2Q15
6,638 6,828
+2.9% Others Ar/Ventilador
Lightining
Shower
Washing machine
Refrigerator/ Freezer
TV
Clothes Iron
Behavioral changes have led to a fall in consumption per residential customer in 2Q15
Delinquency Evolution R$ million in D90/Revenues (LTM)
Allowance for doubtful accounts R$ million
Delinquency
7
Energy Bills CPFL Energia
Energy Bills Group B
23 24
15
23 21
41
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15
75%
1) Excluding construction revenues.
-10.3% R$ 79 million
Net Income EBITDA Net Revenues¹
IFRS
EBITDA Net Income
2Q14 2Q15 2Q14 2Q15
Proportionate Consolidation of Generation (A) 22 6 18 35
Sectorial Financial Assets & Liabilities (B) 38 37
GSF and Energy Purchase (CPFL Geração and CPFL Renováveis) 59 141 46 99
Provision for asset write-off (Bio Pedra TPP) 6 6
Reallocation of costs with Basic Network Losses - CCEE 12 8
Labor contingencies 50 33
Non-recurring items (C) 71 197 53 139
Total (A+B+C) 131 191 109 173
2Q15 R$ 90 million
2Q14 R$ 145
million
2Q15 R$ 692 million
2Q14 R$ 772
million
2Q15 R$ 4,878 million
2Q14 R$ 3,677
million
32.7% R$ 1,201 million
-37.9% R$ 55 million
3.5% R$ 9 million
2Q15 R$ 264 million
2Q14 R$ 255
million
2Q15 R$ 884 million
2Q14 R$ 903
million
2Q15 R$ 4,817 million
2Q14 R$ 3,649
million
32.0% R$ 1,168 million
IFRS
Proportionate Consolidation of
Generation + Sectorial Financial
Assets & Liabilities + Non-recurring items
-2.1% R$ 19 million
8
Sector financial asset and liability (CVA)
R$ 881 MM
RTE/RTA5 +48%
Sales in the concession area (GWh)
-2.9%
Distribution
Resultados 1T15
9
-10.3%
2Q14 Adjusted EBITDA¹
Net Revenues²
Energy Costs and Charges
PMSO +PPF
Reg. A&L 2Q14
2Q15 Adjusted EBITDA¹
Non-Rec. 2Q14
2Q14 IFRS
EBITDA
Prop. Consol. 2Q14
-2.1%
EBITDA | R$ million
32.0% increase in Net Revenues2 (R$ 1.168 million)
Distribution +42.4% (R$ 1,199 million)
Renewable Generation +9.3% (R$ 13 million)
Commercialization and Services +0.2% (R$ 1 million)
Conventional Generation -16.4% (R$ 96 million)
Segments Elimination -12.0% (R$ 50 million)
56.1% increase in Energy Costs and Charges (R$ 1,187 million)
Distribution +64.9% (R$ 1,277 million)
Commercialization and Services +0.6% (R$ 2 million)
Conventional Generation -R$ 144 million
Renewable Generation -26.6% (R$ 7 million)
Segments Elimination -15.5% (R$ 58 million)
1) Proportionate consolidation of projects; 2) Disregard construction revenues; 3) Average PLD SE/CW; 4) Exchange rate (US$) - end of the period; 5) Average price variation (Residential class)
Prop. Consol. 2Q15
Non-Rec. 2Q15
2Q15 IFRS
EBITDA
R$/US$4
PLD (R$/MWh)3 680.82
2.20 3.10
382.82
2Q14 2Q15
Resultados 1T15
10
-10.3%
2Q14 Adjusted EBITDA¹
Net Revenues²
Energy Costs and Charges
PMSO +PPF
Reg. A&L 2Q14
2Q15 Adjusted EBITDA¹
Non-Rec. 2Q14
2Q14 IFRS
EBITDA
Prop. Consol. 2Q14
-2.1%
EBITDA | R$ million
) 0.1% increase in Operating Costs and Expenses ³ (R$ 1 million)
PMSO Services (R$ 7 million)
Acquisition of fuel oil for EPASA (R$ 70 million)
Personnel +7.0% (R$ 13 million) – labor agreement (R$ 9 million) and others (R$ 4 million)
Material +10.7% (R$ 2 million)
Services +3.1% (R$ 3 million)
Others + 35.6% (R$ 41 million)
Legal and judicial indemnities + 67.6% (R$ 30 million)
Allowance for Doubtful Accounts +75,6% (R$ 18 million)
Others -14.3% (R$ 7 million)
Private Pension Fund +35.8% (R$ 4 million)
1) Proportionate consolidation of projects; 2) Disregard construction revenues; 3) Including Private Pension Fund.
Prop. Consol. 2Q15
Non-Rec. 2Q15
2Q15 IFRS
EBITDA
Disregarding the effects above, PMSO increased 14.7% (R$ 64 million)
11
P
MSO
2011 2012 2013 2014 LTM-2Q15
713 672 627 651 669
912846
714 738 708
R$ 248 million (-15.2%)
1,389 1,341
1,625
IGPM: 20.7%
1,347 1,330 1,248
1,362 1,518
P
MSO
1) June/15. Variation of IGP-M in the period 2015 x 2011= 20.7%; 2015 x 2012 = 14.7% and 2015 x 2013 = 7.5% and 2005 x 2014=2.0%. PMSO disregarding Private Pension Fund. Excludes non-recurring items, acquisition of fuel oil for EPASA power plants, PMSO of Services and CPFL Renováveis segments, Legal, Judicial and Indemnities and Personnel capitalization costs since January 2014, due to the new methodology established by Aneel.
Nominal Adjusted PMSO | R$ Million Real Adjusted PMSO¹ | R$ Million
+1.1%
-0.9%
1,377 1,377
Manageable expenses | Real adjusted PMSO LTM-2Q15 x 2011
2011 2012 2013 2014 LTM-2Q15
591 589 584 639 669
756 741 664723 708
12 12
2.1% decrease in EBITDA (R$ 19 million)
R$ 903 million in 2Q14 to R$ 884 million in 2Q15
16,7% decrease in Negative Net Financial Result (R$ 35 million)
Variation of concession financial asset (R$ 68 million)
Mark-to-market effect – operations under Law 4,131 – non-cash (R$ 24 million)
Restatement of Sector financial asset/liability (CVA) (R$ 17 milhões)
Itaipu currency variation (R$ 9 million)
Increase in CDI and debt (R$ 84 million)
Others (R$ 2 milhões)
6.6.% increase in Depreciation and Amortization (R$ 18 million)
Decrease of Income Tax and Social Contribution (R$ 11 million)
2Q15 Results
Net Income | R$ million
2Q14 Adjusted
Net Income¹
Depreciation Amortization
2Q15 Adjusted Net
Income¹
Non-Rec. 2Q15
2Q14 IFRS
Net Income
IR/CS EBITDA Financial Result
Non-Rec. 2Q14
Regul. A&L 2Q14
Prop. Cons. 2Q14
-37.9%
+3.5%
Prop. Cons. 2Q15
2Q15 IFRS
Net Income
10.6% p.a. 12,9% a.a.
2Q14 2Q15
CDI
R$/US$² 2.20 3.10
1) Take into account proportionate consolidation of projects 2) Exchange rate (US$) – end of the period
Leverage1 | R$ billion
Adjusted net debt1/ Adjusted EBITDA2
3,570 3,830 3,886 3,736 3,835 3,755 Adjusted EBITDA1,2 R$ million
1) Financial covenants criteria. 2) LTM recurring EBITDA. 13
Evolution of Cash Balance and CVA | R$ billion
CVA’s recivable (until 2Q15) has been deteriorating
the cash balance.
Adjusting this cash balance, net debt / EBITDA would
3,23x in 2Q15.
4,930 4,929 4,999 4,370
5,023 4,459
+0%
+43%
-13%
With adjust of CVA in cash balance
Indebtedness | Control of financial covenants
14
Debt amortization schedule3,4 | Jun-15 | R$ million
Cash coverage: 1.84x short-term amortization (12M)
Average tenor: 3.74 years
Short-term (12M): 10.0% of total
CDI
Prefixed (PSI)
IGP
TJLP
Gross debt breakdown by indexer | 2Q15 4,2
Gross debt cost1,2 | LTM
Nominal
Real
1) Adjusted by the proportional consolidation since 2012; 2) Financial debt (+) private pension fund (-) hedge; 3) Considers Debt Principal; 4) Covenants Criteria; 5) Amortization from July-2016.
5l
Debt profile | on June 30, 2015
15
Commercial Start-up 2016-2020(e)
333 MW of installed capacity
183 average-MW of assured energy
Campo dos Ventos and São Benedito Wind Farms
Mata Velha SHPP Pedra Cheirosa Wind
Farms Boa Vista II SHPP
Commercial Start-up 20161 20161 20182 2020
Installed Capacity 231.0 MW 24.0 MW 51.3 MW 26.5 MW
Assured Energy 129.2 average-MW3 13.1 average-MW 26.1 average-MW3 14.8 average-MW
PPA4 ACL 20 years 16th LEN 20135
R$ 143.30/MWh until 2047
18th LEN 20145
R$ 133.00/MWh until 2037
21st LEN 2015 R$ 207.64/MWh
until 2049
Financing BNDES
(under analysis) BNDES
(under analysis) BNDES
(being structured) BNDES
(being structured)
Winner A-5
Auction
2015
Generation | Greenfield projects
1) Gradual commercial operation from 2Q16; 2) Gradual commercial operation from 1H18; 3) Assured Energy calculated in the P90; 4) Constant Currency (jun/15); 5) With the anticipation of work, a bilateral contract (Free Market) will run between 2016 and 2018, when the supply of LEN 2013 starts.
16
4rd Tariff Review Cycle | CPFL Piratininga (preliminary proposal)
Methodology Changes 4rd cycle
(R$ million)
Variation on 3rd cycle
(R$ million)
WACC from 7.50% to 8.09%
Capital Remuneration 210 +15
Creation of Special Obligations Remuneration
Special Obligations Remuneration 11 +11
Methodology Changes of Technical Losses
Technical Losses 143 +9
Other Revenues – Methodology Simplification
Other Revenues Sharing -36 +6
Extension of the aging from 49 to 60 months
Irrecoverable Revenue 24 -7
Xpd from 1,11% to 1,53%
Xpd Factor -6 -4
Total Effects +29
New methodology of the 4rd Tariff Review Cycle for CPFL Piratininga, generated a annual benefit of R$ 29 million (preliminary figures)
17
4rd Tariff Review Cycle | CPFL Piratininga
June July August September October
Schedule 4rd Tariff Review Cycle | CPFL Piratininga
Dia 19: Aneel submits preliminary proposal to CPFL
Dia 3: Aneel’s meeting Dia 21: Public Hearing Opening (technical notes release)
Dia 13: In-house public hearing (opportunity for unions, consumers, etc. give their opinions) Dia 27: End of in-house public hearing (deadline for contributions)
Dia 18: Aneel submits final proposal to CPFL Dia 25: Meeting with Aneel
Dia13: Meeting of Aneel’s Board of Directors Dia 23: Piratininga’s tariffs published
18 1) November/14 to April/15 average; 2) May/15 to August/15 average; 3) ONS forecast for August (RV1)
20.6 23.230.1 34.9 36.9
38.3
40.835.8
50.1
40.0
75.7
30.6
42.642.9
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2002
2012
2013
2014
ONS Forecast
2015
August, 12 (current): 39.5%
22.4
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Nov-1
2D
ec-
12
Jan-1
3Feb-1
3M
ar-
13
Apr-
13
May-1
3Ju
n-1
3Ju
l-13
Aug-1
3Sep-1
3O
ct-
13
Nov-1
3D
ec-
13
Jan-1
4Feb-1
4M
ar-
14
Apr-
14
May-1
4Ju
n-1
4Ju
l-14
Aug-1
4Sep-1
4O
ct-
14
Nov-1
4D
ec-
14
Jan-1
5Feb-1
5M
ar-
15
Apr-
15
May-1
5Ju
n-1
5Ju
l-15
Aug-1
5
ENA SE/CW LTA
Reservoir Levels and ENA
NIPS Reservoir Levels | %
Natural Inflow Energy (ENA) | SE/CW | GW average ENA | % LTA
19 1) Including real figures in the period Jan-Jul/15
2014 65.1 Gwavg
ONS (PEN 2015) 67.3 Gwavg +3.3%
ONS Aug-15 - Review¹
64.0 Gwavg -1.7%
CPFL 63.6 Gwavg -2.8%
NIPS Load Evolution | Load reduction contributes to the preservation of reservoirs levels
NIPS Load Evolution 2015
+2.7% -2.6%
-7.4%
-7.9% -7.6%
-5.5%
-4.6%
Deviance
68.1
66.6
63.9
60.9
59.9 60.1
61.1
63.6
65.2 65.0 64.5
67.8
69.9 69.9
67.6
65.8 65.0 65.1
66.5 67.1
67.9 67.7 67.2
60.6
61.4
63.0 62.6
62.6
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Real
ONS (Aug/15 - Review)
ONS (PEN jan/15)
CPFL
Dry Season Wet Season
20
15.0%
20.6%23.3%
30.2%
34.9%36.9% 38.3%
40.8%
25.0%
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15
Historical average (1997-2014):
74.7% Historical average
(1997-2014):
42.4%
ENA August:
91%
Scenarios for reservoir levels¹| Forecast for November is 25%
1) Probability considers the historical series
Scenarios for reservoir levels
ENA needed (Aug-Nov): 66%
Probability Lower ENA¹: 2%
ENA needed (Aug-Nov): 90%
Probability Lower ENA¹: 44%
2Q14 2Q15
24.5 28.9
14.9 14.7
-3.7%
2.7%
-0.9%
Fonte: Economatica; 1) with adjustment by dividends; 2) Until 06/30/15
Daily average trading volume on BM&FBovespa + NYSE2 | R$ million
43.6
Bovespa NYSE Daily average number of trades on BM&FBovespa
Shares performance on BM&FBovespa | 2Q151,2
Shares performance on NSYE | 2Q151,2
+1.9% 5,332 5,434
CPFE3 IEE IBOV
-2.9%
10.0%
3.8%
CPFL Energia is present in the main indexes
Desempenho das ações
21
39.4
Stock Market Performance
CPL Dow Jones Br20
Dow Jones Index
• CPFL Paulista was awarded in customer evaluation category among the distributors above 500 thousand customers.
• RGE was awarded in Social Responsability category
Abradee Award 2015
• Evaluation of the 250 best Brazilian companies
• CPFL Energia took the first place in the Utilities Sector
Company of the year 2015 | Época Negócios 360º Yearbook
22
• The ranking is divided in two groups: large distributors (eletric energy Market above 1TWh) and small distributors (eletric energy market up to 1TWh – including 1TWh)
• CPFL Santa Cruz was elected the best distributor in large distributor category
Ranking of Service Continuity 2014 | ANEEL
Awards and recognitions
Implementation
Feasibility
Opportunity
23
• Outlook 2020: 10 million of electric vehicles in activity
• Brazil owns the 4th largest vehicle market in the world
• CPFL Energia has surveilled the development of electric vehicles since 2007
Electric Mobility Program
• On June, CPFL Energia established a partnership with Rede Graal (Gas Station 67 - Jundiaí)
• Development of the first highway adapted to electric vehicles
• Target: up to 30 chargers covering public and private places
• Charging up to 80% in half hour
• Monthly average consumption of an electric vehicle: 146 kWh (increasing of 73%1)
• Savings of R$ 13.5 thousand2 by vehicle replaced
CPFL Experience 90 thousand km
1) Assumptions: 12,000km per year and efficiency of 0.15 kWh/km (ZOE of CPFL Energia). The customer’s consumption of CPFL Paulista is approximately 200 kWh/month. 2) Gas cost R$ 3.00/L; Energy cost (both including tax) R$ 0.62 (residential tariff); Usual vehicle consumption: 12 km/L; Electric vehicle consumption: 6.2 km/kWh
© CPFL 2015. Todos os direitos reservados.