presentation at the workshop economics of nuclear dr ... · dr tobias bischof-niemz chief engineer...

Dr Tobias Bischof-Niemz

Chief Engineer

Can renewables supply baseload?

Presentation at the workshop Economics of Nuclear

Dr Tobias Bischof-Niemz, CSIR Energy Centre Manager

Johannesburg, 9 March 2016

Cell: +27 83 403 1108

Email: [email protected]

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Dr Tobias Bischof-Niemz

Head of CSIR’s Energy Centre

Professional Experience

• Member of the Ministerial Advisory Council on Energy (MACE)

• Extraordinary Associate Professor at Stellenbosch University

• Jul 2014 – today: Centre Manager at the CSIR, responsible to lead the

establishment of an integrated energy research centre

• 2012 – 2014: PV/Renewables Specialist at Eskom in the team that developed the IRP;

afterwards 2 months contract work in the DoE’s IPP Unit on gas, coal IPP and rooftop PV

• 2007 – 2012: Senior consultant (energy system and renewables expert) at

The Boston Consulting Group, Berlin and Frankfurt, Germany

Education

• Master of Public Administration (MPA) on energy and renewables policies

in 2009 from Columbia University in New York City, USA

• PhD (“Dr.-Ing.”) in 2006 in Automotive Engineering from TU Darmstadt, Germany

• Mechanical Engineering at Technical University of Darmstadt,

Germany (Master – “Dipl.-Ing.” in 2003) and at UC Berkeley, USA

3

0.4

2.2

0.7 0.5

0.4 0.9

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.3

0.2

R/kWh

Diesel (OCGT)

3.1

0.1

Gas (OCGT)

2.2

1.1-1.4

0.1

Mid-merit Coal

1.3

0.2

Gas (CCGT)

1.3

0.8

0.1

Wind

Bid Window 1

0.0

Solar PV

Bid Window 1

0.1

Nuclear

0.8-1.1

1.1

0.10.1

Baseload Coal

0.1

Consequence of renewables’ cost reduction for South Africa:

Solar PV and wind are the cheapest new-build options per kWh today

Renewables Conventional new-build options

50%92% 50% 10%Assumed load factor �

Fuel cost @

92 R/GJ

Fuel cost @

110-140 R/GJ

10%

Lifetime cost

per energy unit

85%

Fuel (and variable O&M)

Fixed O&M

Capital

Note: Changing full-load hours for conventionals drastically changes the fixed cost components per kWh (lower full-load hours � higher capital costs and fixed O&M costs per MWh);

Assumptions: average efficiency for CCGT = 50%, OCGT = 35%; coal = 37%; nuclear = 33%; IRP cost from Jan 2012 escalated with CPI to Jan 2016; assumed EPC CAPEX inflated by 10% to convert

EPC/LCOE into tariff; Sources: IRP Update; REIPPPP outcomes; StatsSA for CPI; Eskom financial reports on coal/diesel fuel cost; CSIR analysis

0.80.6

CAPEX lower

than IRP

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Thought experiment: Build a new power system from scratch

Base load: 8 GW

� Annual demand: 70 TWh/yr (~30% of today’s South African demand)

Can a blend of wind and solar PV, mixed with flexible dispatchable power to fill the gaps supply this?

If yes, at what cost?

Assumptions/approach

• 15 GW wind @ 0.65 R/kWh (Bid Window 4 average tariff in Apr-2015-Rand)

• 7 GW solar PV @ 0.82 R/kWh (Bid Window 4 average tariff in Apr-2015-Rand)

• 8 GW flexible power generator to fill the gaps @ 2.0 R/kWh

• Hourly solar PV and wind data from recent CSIR study, covering the entire country

• Hourly simulation of supply structure for an entire year

Sources: CSIR analysis

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Side note: System load does not have “baseload” profileActual system load in the South African power system on 28 July 2015

30

15

35

5

25

10

20

0

GW

24h006h00 18h0012h00

Hour of the day

System Load


6

Thought experiment: assumed 8 GW of true baseload

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

GW

24h006h00 18h0012h00

Hour of the day

System Load


7

A mix of solar PV, wind and flexible power can supply this baseload

demand in the same reliable manner as a base-power generator

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

GW

Hour of the day

12h006h00 24h0018h00

Residual Load (flexible power)

Wind

Solar PV

Excess solar PV/wind

energy � curtailment

assumed (no value)


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On a low-sun, low-wind day the residual load is largeSimulated solar PV and wind power output for a 7 GW PV and 15 GW wind fleet on a day in May

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

12h00

Hour of the day

24h0018h006h00

GW

Wind


Solar PV


9

On a sunny and windy day, excess energy from PV and wind is largeSimulated solar PV and wind power output for a 7 GW PV and 15 GW wind fleet on a day in July

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

12h00

Hour of the day

24h0018h006h00

GW

Wind


Solar PV


10

On average, solar PV and wind supplies 82% of the total demandAverage hourly solar PV and wind power supply calculated from simulation for the entire year

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

12h00

Hour of the day

24h0018h006h00

GW

Wind


Solar PV


8 GW flexible fleet

runs at annual average

load factor of 19%

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The mix of solar PV, wind and flexible power costs 1 R/kWh – same

level as alternative new-build options that supply baseload

System Load Solar PV Wind

70

Residual

Load (flexible

power)

13

1

13

12

TWh/yr

6

52

46

Wind

Excess PV/wind

Solar PV

13 TWh/yr * 0.82 R/kWh

+ 52 TWh/yr * 0.65 R/kWh

+ 13 TWh/yr * 2.00 R/kWh

_______________________

70 TWh/yr

= 1 R/kWh

• No value given to 7 TWh/yr

of excess energy (bought and “thrown away”)

• Bid Window 4 costs for PV/wind

(no further cost reduction assumed)

• Very high cost for flexible power of

2.0 R/kWh assumed


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10% less load: excess energy increases, need for flexible power reducesAverage hourly solar PV and wind power supply calculated from simulation for the entire year

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

GW

Hour of the day

24h0018h0012h006h00


Wind

Solar PV10% reduced demand


13

Low sensitivity to changes in demand (-10%): unit cost stays constant

Wind

63

Residual

Load (flexible

power)

52

43

8

Solar PV

13

11

2

System Load

9

TWh/yr

Solar PV

Wind

Excess PV/wind

13 TWh/yr * 0.82 R/kWh

+ 52 TWh/yr * 0.65 R/kWh

+ 13 9 TWh/yr * 2.00 2.10 R/kWh

_______________________

70 63 TWh/yr

= 1 R/kWh

• No value given to 7 TWh/yr

of excess energy (bought and “thrown away”)

• Bid Window 4 costs for PV/wind

(no further cost reduction assumed)

• Very high cost for flexible power of

2.0 R/kWh assumed

10% reduced demand


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Thank you!

presentation at the workshop economics of nuclear dr ... · dr tobias bischof-niemz chief engineer...

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