presentation cardiff
DESCRIPTION
Presentation at a seminar at the Cardiff Business School.TRANSCRIPT
1
Detroit Industry, North Wall (Ford Plant at River Rouge). 1932-1933. Diego Rivera.
LONG-RUN CHANGES IN THE EMPLOYMENT STRUCTURE IN SPAIN
José-Ignacio Antón
University of Salamanca (Spain)
2
Contents of the presentation
1. Introduction
2. Methodology
3. Data
4. Results
5. Discussion
3
1. Introduction
Background
Relevant literature focused on inequalities in developed countries.
Explanations based on market forces -technology, international trade, returns to education- (versus institutional features) that refers to ‘unaivodable’ labour market issues.
Relevant amount of literature focusing on employment polarisation (David Autor, Alan Manning, Erik Olin Wright, Eurofound…) across Economics, Sociology, Industrial Relations, etc.
4
“Quality”
Employment
Computerization allows subsituting middle-skilled jobs (with high-routine content) by machines.
Low-skilled and high-skilled workers cannot be replaced in the same fashion.
5
1. Introduction
Background
Most work is centred on Anglo-Saxon countries (US, UK).
One fits all? Some say
polarisation is not widespread
polarisation is not likely to be explained by the technical change/routinisation hypothesis (degree of changes, types of jobs, timing).
6
1. Introduction
Aims of the paper
Part of a research contract with Eurofound.
Exploring long-run trends with an uniform methodology.
Informative for the evolution of labour market inequalities Spain, with very bad databases before mid 90s.
Some light on some aspects of the polarisation debate (plausibility of the explanation).
7
1. Introduction
Advancing some preliminary results
Since the late 70s, modernisation of Spanish economy and labour market: de-primarisation, de-industrialisation, rise of the Welfare State, rise of temporary work, housing bubble and financial crisis, labour market crisis.
Overall, the overall pattern is upgrading and polarisation is only relevant in economic crisis.
If polarisation is associated to small segments and periods. Is it really so relevant?
Should we be more cautious about deus ex machina explanations?
8
2. Methodology
The so-called ‘jobs approach’
Define the jobs: combination of an occupation (2-digit ISCO category) and a sector of activity (2-digit NACE).
Ranking (quintiles): rank the jobs according to earnings (or other variable proxying job quality) create quintiles taking a year as reference (this is not innocous).
Monitoring the changes: explore the pattern of changes, how they shape the employment structure and some features behind it.
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2. Methodology
Creation of a job matrix
Sector of activity (2 digits)
Act 1 Act 2 … Act N
Occupation (2 digits)
Occ 1 Job 1 Job 2 … Job N
Occ 2 Job N+1 … … Job 2·N
… … … …
Occ K Job (K-1)·N … … Job K·N
Mean/median wage
An example
10
2. Methodology
An example
11
2. Methodology
An example
12
2. Methodology
An example
13
2. Methodology
Many possible patterns
14
2. Methodology
Many possible patterns
15
2. Methodology
Many possible patterns
16
3. Data and periods of interests
o Periods of interest
o Breaks
o Databases
17
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
197
81
979
198
01
981
198
21
983
198
41
985
198
61
987
198
81
989
199
01
991
199
21
993
199
41
995
199
61
997
199
81
999
200
02
001
200
22
003
200
42
005
200
62
007
200
82
009
201
02
011
201
22
013
% o
f cha
nge
fro
m t
he 2
ndqu
arte
r of
the
pre
viou
s ye
ar
Annual change of employment in Spain (%, 1978-2013)
Source: Spanish Labour Force Survey.
1977-1985
1985-1991
1991-1994
1994-2008
2008-2011
18
1977
1985
Crisis & job destruction
Expansion & job growth
1991
1994
2008
2013
Crisis & job destruction
Expansion & job growth
Crisis & job destruction
Employment cycles Occupation Activity
National Classification of
Occupations 1979
National Classification of
Occupations 1994 (compatible with
ISCO-88)
National Classification of
Occupations 2011 (inspired by ISCO-
08)
National Classification of
Economic Activities 1974 (equivalent to
NACE)
National Classification of
Economic Activities 1993 (equivalent to
NACE rev. 1 and 1.1)
National Classification of
Economic Activities 2009 (equivalent to NACE rev. 2)
19
In sum, taking into account business cycles and breaks, we analyze
o 1977-1985 (job destruction)
o 1985-1991 (job growth)
o 1991-1992 (job destruction + break)
o 1992-1993 (job destruction + break)
o 1994-2008 (job growth)
o 2008-2010 (job destruction + break)
o 2011-2013 (job destruction)
Spanish Labour Force Survey
Basic Household Budget Survey
1990-1991
Wage Structure Survey 2006 + Survey of Living Conditions
2006
Wage Structure Survey 2010
Survey of Living Conditions 2009 & 2010
20
4. Results
Overall patterns
Modernisation, de-primarisation, de-industrialisation.
The rise and fall of housing.
The rise of the Welfare State.
The polarising effects of crisis.
Other issues worth mentioning.
21
Overall patterns
22Source: AMECO.
23Source: Spanish Labour Force Survey.
24
-60
0-4
00
-20
00
Tho
usa
nds
of w
orke
rs
I II III IV V
Absolute change in employment by quintile (1977-1985)
Average change
in employment:
-14.3%
25
-50
00
500
1,00
0
Tho
usa
nds
of w
orke
rs
I II III IV V
Absolute change in employment by quintile (1985-1991)
Average change
in employment:
+19.1%
26
-10
0-5
00
50
Tho
usa
nds
of w
orke
rs
I II III IV V
Absolute change in employment by quintile (1991-1992)
-10
0-5
00
50
Tho
usa
nds
of w
orke
rs
I II III IV V
Absolute change in employment by quintile (1991-1992)
Average change
in employment:
-1.4%
27
-20
0-1
50
-10
0-5
00
Tho
usa
nds
of w
orke
rs
I II III IV V
Absolute change in employment by quintile (1992-1993)
Average change
in employment:
-4.8%
28
050
01,
000
1,50
02,
000
Tho
usa
nds
of w
orke
rs
I II III IV V
Absolute change in employment by quintile (1994-2008)
Average change
in employment:
+59%
29
-60
0-4
00
-20
00
Tho
usa
nds
of w
orke
rs
I II III IV V
Absolute change in employment by quintile (2008-2010)
Average change
in employment:
-10.4%
30
-50
0-4
00
-30
0-2
00
-10
00
Tho
usa
nds
of w
orke
rs
I II III IV V
Absolute change in employment by quintile (2011-2013)
Average change
in employment:
-8.3%
31
32
Modernisation, de-primarisation, de-industrialisation
33Source: AMECO.
34Source: AMECO.
35Source: AMECO.
36
-60
0-4
00
-20
00
200
Tho
usa
nds
of w
orke
rs
I II III IV V
Absolute changes in employment by quintile and sector of activity (1977-1985)
Agriculture, forestry and fishing High-technology industry
Low-technology industry Construction
Knowledge-intensive services Less knowledge-intensive services
Non-manufacturing industries Total
37
-50
00
500
1,00
0
Tho
usa
nds
of w
orke
rs
I II III IV V
Absolute changes in employment by quintile and sector of activity (1985-1991)
Agriculture, forestry and fishing High-technology industry
Low-technology industry Construction
Knowledge-intensive services Less knowledge-intensive services
Non-manufacturing industries Total
38
-15
0-1
00
-50
050
Tho
usa
nds
of w
orke
rs
I II III IV V
Absolute changes in employment by quintile and sector of activity (1991-1992)
Agriculture, forestry and fishing High-technology industry
Low-technology industry Construction
Knowledge-intensive services Less knowledge-intensive services
Non-manufacturing industries Total
39
-50
00
500
1,00
01,
500
2,00
0
Tho
usa
nds
of w
orke
rs
I II III IV V
Absolute changes in employment by quintile and sector of activity (1994-2008)
Agriculture, forestry and fishing High-technology industry
Low-technology industry Construction
Knowledge-intensive services Less knowledge-intensive services
Non-manufacturing industries Total
40
-60
0-4
00
-20
00
Tho
usa
nds
of w
orke
rs
I II III IV V
Absolute changes in employment by quintile and sector of activity (2008-2010)
Agriculture, forestry and fishing High-technology industry
Low-technology industry Construction
Knowledge-intensive services Less knowledge-intensive services
Non-manufacturing industries Total
41
-50
0-4
00
-30
0-2
00
-10
00
Tho
usa
nds
of w
orke
rs
I II III IV V
Absolute changes in employment by quintile and sector of activity (2011-2013)
Agriculture, forestry and fishing High-technology industry
Low-technology industry Construction
Knowledge-intensive services Less knowledge-intensive services
Non-manufacturing industries Total
42Source: Fernández-Macías (2014).
Correlation between change in employment from 1997 to 2007 and routine and cognitive indices.
43
The rise of the Welfare State
44
-50
00
500
1,00
0
Tho
usa
nds
of w
orke
rs
I II III IV V
Absolute changes in employment by quintile and professional situation (1985-1991)
Private employees Public employees Employers
Self-employed workers Total
45
-10
0-5
00
50
Tho
usa
nds
of w
orke
rs
I II III IV V
Absolute changes in employment by quintile (1991-1992)
Employment in Welfare State services Total
46
-10
0-5
00
50
Tho
usa
nds
of w
orke
rs
I II III IV V
Absolute changes in employment by quintile and professional situation (1991-1992)
Private employees Public employees Employers
Self-employed workers Total
47
050
01,
000
1,50
02,
000
Tho
usa
nds
of w
orke
rs
I II III IV V
Absolute changes in employment by quintile (1994-2008)
Employment in Welfare State services
Total
48
-50
00
500
1,00
01,
500
2,00
0
Tho
usa
nds
of w
orke
rs
I II III IV V
Absolute changes in employment by quintile and professional situation (1994-2008)
Private employees Public employees Employers
Self-employed workers Total
49
-60
0-4
00
-20
00
200
Tho
usa
nds
of w
orke
rs
I II III IV V
Absolute changes in employment by quintile (2008-2010)
Employment in Welfare State services Total
50
-50
0-4
00
-30
0-2
00
-10
00
Tho
usa
nds
of w
orke
rs
I II III IV V
Absolute changes in employment by quintile (2011-2013)
Employment in Welfare State services Total
51
-60
0-4
00
-20
00
200
Tho
usa
nds
of w
orke
rs
I II III IV V
Absolute changes in employment by quintile and professional situation (2008-2010)
Private employees Public employees Employers
Self-employed workers Total
52
4. Discussion
The routine-biased technical change hypothesis presents
limitations to explain the behaviour of the Spanish Labour market
other demand-side forces, labour supply issues (migration),
the intensity of the phenomena, etc.
Shortcomings of the methodology (decreasing returns of scale)
The reference period matters.
The entity of phenomena matters.
The number of quantiles matters.
Job quality is much more than pay.
53
050
01,
000
1,50
02,
000
Tho
usa
nds
of w
orke
rs
I II III IV V
Absolute change in employment by quintile (1994-2008)
050
01,
000
1,50
02,
000
2,50
0
Tho
usa
nds
of w
orke
rs
I II III IV V
Absolute change in employment by quintile (1994-2008)
Reference year: 1994 Reference year: 1977
2000 yields something in the middle.