presentation- eberstadt 10.21.2010

7/28/2019 Presentation- Eberstadt 10.21.2010

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1

Russias Peacetime Demographic Crisis:

Dimensions, Causes, Implications

Nicholas EberstadtHenry Wendt Chair In Political Economy

[email protected]

American Enterprise Institute

Washington, DC

21 October 2010


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2

Here We Go AgainRussian Population, 1897-2009 (current boundaries, millions)

Source: 1897-2000: Dalkat Ediev, Application of the Demographic Potential Concept to Understanding the Russian Population Historyand Prospects: 1897-2100, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, 2001, Figure 1. [spreadsheet]

2001-2009: Goskomstat/Rosstat, Total Population of Russian Federation, 1897-2009,http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/demo11.htm (accessed 19 October 2010).

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Population(estimate

d),millions
http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/demo11.htmhttp://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/demo11.htm


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-1,000,000

-500,000

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

Populat

ion

Births

Deaths

NaturalIncrease

3

Depopulation With Russian CharacteristicsBirths, Deaths, and Natural Increase in Population:

Russian Federation, 1970-2009

Source: For 1970-2008: Demographic Yearbook of the Russian Federation [various editions] (State Committee of the Russian Federationon Statistics, Moscow) ; for 2009: Rosstat/Goskomstat, http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/vita1_bd.htm (accessedOctober 19, 2010).
http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/vita1_bd.htmhttp://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/vita1_bd.htm


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4

Thoroughly EuropeanTotal Fertility Rates in Russia

vs. Selected Western Nations, 1950-2000

From Julie DaVanzo and Clifford Grammich, Dire Demographics: Population Trends in the Russian

Federation. RAND, 2001.


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5

DifficultBut Not ImpossibleLife Expectancy at Birth: Russian Federation, 1959-2008

Source: Human Mortality Database. University of California, Berkeley and Max Planck Institute for DemographicResearch. Available atwww.mortality.org

, Accessed June 7, 2010.

55

57

59

61

63

65

67

69

71

73

75

1959

1962

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

LifeExpectancyat

Birth(Years)

Female

Male
http://www.mortality.org/http://www.mortality.org/


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Bleeding RussiaExcess Mortality in the Russian Federation, 1992-2008

(In comparison with Russian Federation mortality schedules for 1986/87)

6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

500000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

ExcessMortality(death

speryear)

Males

Females

Note: Excess mortality calculated for given calendar years against Russian Federation age-specific mortalityrates for 1986/87

Source: Derived from Human Mortality Database (http://mortality.org)

Excess male: 5.296 MillionExcess female: 1.750 MillionTotal excess mortality: 7.045 M


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500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Age-standardized

deathrate

(deathsper100000)

Russian Federation EU EU members before May 2004 EU members since 2004 or 2007

7

Wrong DirectionDeath rates from all causes, Russia vs. EU, 1970-2008 (total)

Source: Europe Health For All Database, World Health Organization, July 2008.Accessed 18 October 2010.


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0

200

400

600

800

6 8 10 12

8

More Bang Per BuckAge-standardized mortality rates from Cardiovascular Disease

vs. PPP-Adjusted Per Capita GDP for Russia and 174 Other Countries, 2002

Ag

e-standardizedmo

rtalityrate(deaths

per100000)

Russia

Log of Per Capita GDP PPP, 2002 ($)

Source: World Development Indicators 2008, World Bank; WHOSIS, World Health Organization


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9

Find The Outlier That Does Not BelongAge-standardized mortality rates from injury/external causes

vs. PPP-Adjusted Per Capita GDP for Russia and 174 Other Countries, 2002

y = -21.912Ln(x) + 267.69

R2

= 0.3052

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

350.00

100.00 1000.00 10000.00 100000.00

Per Capita GDP PPP, 2002 ($constant 2005)

AgeStandarizedMo

rtalityRate

(deathsper100000)

Source: World Development Indicators 2008, World Bank; WHOSIS, World Health Organization

Burundi

Liberia

Sierra LeoneAngola

Congo

Russia


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Its Not For Want Of SchoolingPercentage Share of People Aged 25-64 with Tertiary Educational Attainment:

OECD Countries (2001) vs. Russia (2002)

10


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11

Sources: Alan D. Lopez, Joshua Salomon, Omar Ahmad,Christopher JL. Murray, and Doris Mafat, Life Tables for 191Countries: Data, Methods and Results, GPE Discussion Paper

Series: No. 9. World Health Organization, 1999; LEs byeducation in Russia from: Michael Murphy, Martin Bobak,Amanda Nicholson, Richard Rose, and Michael Marmot, The

Widening Gap in Mortality by Educational Level in theRussian Federation, 19802001,American Journal of PublicHealth 96, no. 7 (July 2006): 12931299, Figure 2.

Educated, But Not Healthy

Estimated Female LifeExpectancy at age 20 in Russia

(2000 by educational level)

and the World (1999)

20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70

JapanFrance

MonacoSwitzerland

AustraliaSpain

AndorraNorway

ItalySanMarino

CanadaSwedenBelgium

LuxembourgNetherlands

MaltaFinlandGreece

SingaporeAustria

Russia-UniversityDominica

IcelandChile

BruneiDarussalamGermany

IsraelUnitedStates of America

UnitedKingdomPortugal

New ZealandCostaRica

SloveniaJamaica

ArgentinaCyprusMexico

UruguayYugoslavia

LithuaniaIreland

BarbadosArmenia

Czech RepublicDenmark

AntiguaandBarbudaPanama

CubaVenezuela

CroatiaGeorgia

GrenadaPoland

SlovakiaAzerbaijan

SaintVincentandGrenadinesRepublic of Korea

GuyanaBosniaandHerzegovina

BelizeDominicanRepublic

UnitedArab EmiratesParaguayAlbaniaKuwait

CapeVerdeSaintLucia

ColombiaBulgariaEstonia

SurinameTajikistan

QatarLatvia

ElSalvadorHungary

TFYRMacedoniaRussia-Intermediate

RussianFederationBahamasSriLanka

UkraineBelarus

RomaniaCookIslands

MauritiusBrazil

BahrainOmanTongaChina

TurkeyUzbekistanIndonesiaHonduras

KyrgyzstanSaudiArabia

Trinidadand TobagoNiue

MongoliaSaintKitts andNevisRepublic of Moldova

ThailandEcuador

Russia -Elementary EducationAlgeria

KazakhstanSamoa

Micronesia(Fed.States of)Philippines

PakistanPeru

NicaraguaSeychelles

MoroccoIran( Islamic Republic of)

EgyptTurkmenistan

MarshallIslan dsVietNamMalaysia

PalauFiji

TunisiaKiribatiBhutan

SaoTomeandPrincipeSyrianArabRepublic

MaldivesIndia

MyanmarJordan

LibyanArabJamahiriyaLebanon

BoliviaDem.Peoples's Rep.of Korea

TuvaluGuatemala

SolomonIslandsVanuatu

BangladeshIraq

GambiaMauritania

SenegalComoros

NepalLao People's Dem.Republic

Equatorial GuineaYemen

NigerBenin

CambodiaPapuaNew Guinea

AfghanistanGabonGhanaNauru

AngolaGuineaCongo

HaitiChad

SudanGuinea-Bissau

CameroonNigeria

MaliTogo

MadagascarLiberia

Dem.Rep.of theCongoBurkinaFasoCted'IvoireMozambique

SomaliaEritrea

UnitedRepublic of TanzaniaEthiopiaBurundi

SierraLeoneKenyaDjibouti

SouthAfricaCentralAfricanRepublic

LesothoSwaziland

RwandaUgandaMalawiNamibiaZambia

ZimbabweBotswana

Female Life Expectancy at age 20


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1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

USA Japan Germany United Kingdom

France Taiwan South Korea China

India Russia Brazil West Virginia

12Source: Patents By Country, State, and Year - All Patent Types (December 2008),http://www.uspto.gov/go/stats/cst_all.htm ; accessed February 26, 2010.

Patentable Knowledge: Neck and Neck With West VirginiaNumber of U.S. Patents Granted, 19952008: Russian Federation

vs. Selected Other Countries and Places
http://www.uspto.gov/go/stats/cst_all.htmhttp://www.uspto.gov/go/stats/cst_all.htmhttp://www.uspto.gov/go/stats/cst_all.htm


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y = 3E-06x2.1294

R2 = 0.7319

0

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

1,000,000

$100 $1,000 $10,000 $100,000

GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2005 international $), 2005

O

utofCountryPatentApplicationsper1million

TertiaryG

raduates

Russia

Switzerland

ChinaBrazil

India

USAJapan

Pakistan

Iran

Bahrain

Jordan

Finland

13

Sources: World Intellectual Property Organization, World Intellectual Property Indicators 2009, September2009, http://www.wipo.int/ipstats/en/statistics/patents/; World Development Indicators 2008 CD-ROM,World Bank.; and W. Lutz, A. Goujon, S.K.C., and W. Sanderson, Reconstruction of population by age, sex and

level of educational attainment of 120 countries for 2000-2030. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research,(2007).

Failing Grades In Knowledge ProductionNumber of Out of Country Patent Applications, 19952007 per

Million Tertiary Graduates vs. GDP per Capita PPP, 2005


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110000

120000

130000

140000

150000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Po

pu

lation

(es

tima

tedand

pro

jec

ted--

thousan

ds)

UN-High variant UN-Medium variant UN-Low variant U.S. Census Bureau

14

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects:The 2008 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, February 26, 2010.Source: US Census Bureau International Database. Available online athttp://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbnew.html, Accessed onFebruary 26, 2010.

Dwindling ConsensusEstimated and Projected Population of Russia, 2000-2030,

UN and U.S. Census Bureau
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbnew.htmlhttp://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbnew.html


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15

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census International Database, available online at

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbacc.html; Accessed February 26, 2010.

Fewer Workers TomorrowAdult Population 15-64 by Age Group: Russia, 2005-2030

(estimated and projected, millions)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Popu

lation

(millions

)

15-29 30-49 50-64


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-50.00%

-40.00%

-30.00%

-20.00%

-10.00%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

15- 19 20- 24 25- 29 30- 34 35- 39 40- 44 45- 49 50- 54 55- 59 60- 64 65- 69 70- 74

Age Group

Population

Chan

ge

Western Europe

Russia

16

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/.Note: Definition of Western Europe from U.S. Census Bureau

Russias Manpower Outlook: Western Europe Has It EasyProjected Population Change For Adult Age Groups, 2005-2030:

Western Europe vs. Russia (percentage change)
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/


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Anyone Home?Russian Urban Population, 1990-2009 (estimated)

100000.00

101000.00

102000.00

103000.00

104000.00

105000.00

106000.00

107000.00

108000.00

109000.00

110000.00

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Population(th

ousands)

Year

State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics (Goskomstat of Russia) Internet Database,http://www.gks.ru/scripts/db_inet/dbinet.cgi, accessed on February 25, 2010.
http://www.gks.ru/scripts/db_inet/dbinet.cgihttp://www.gks.ru/scripts/db_inet/dbinet.cgihttp://www.gks.ru/scripts/db_inet/dbinet.cgihttp://www.gks.ru/scripts/db_inet/dbinet.cgihttp://www.gks.ru/scripts/db_inet/dbinet.cgihttp://www.gks.ru/scripts/db_inet/dbinet.cgihttp://www.gks.ru/scripts/db_inet/dbinet.cgihttp://www.gks.ru/scripts/db_inet/dbinet.cgihttp://www.gks.ru/scripts/db_inet/dbinet.cgihttp://www.gks.ru/scripts/db_inet/dbinet.cgihttp://www.gks.ru/scripts/db_inet/dbinet.cgihttp://www.gks.ru/scripts/db_inet/dbinet.cgihttp://www.gks.ru/scripts/db_inet/dbinet.cgi


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Urban Life Expectancy in BRIC countries, most recent year availableMale Female Total

Russia (2006) 61.03 73.7 67.29

Moscow (2006) 67.17 76.5 71.81

St. Petersburg (2006) 62.84 74.83 68.9

China (2000) 73.11 77.51 75.21

Shanghai (2000) 77.49 81.19 79.36

Beijing (2000) 76.13 79.92 77.96

India (2002-06) 67.1 70 68.8

Chennai (2004) 77.15 77.56

New Delhi (2000) 69.5 69.5 69.5

Kolkata (2001) 74 75

Maharashtra (1998-02) 68.7 72 70.3

Mumbai (2007) 71

Brazil (2005) 68.35 75.93 72.05

So Paulo (1970) 58.5

Rio De Janeiro (1970) 57.1

So Paulo (2005) 69.49 78.03 73.66

Rio De Janeiro (2005) 68.08 77.02 72.44

Brasilia (2005) 71.19 78.74 74.87

Mexico (2004) 71.79 77.21 74.5

Nuevo Leon (2004) 72.69 77.79 75.24

Mexico City (2004) 72.81 78 74.58

Turkey (2002)

Istanbul (2002) 69 74.2 72.4

Indonesia (2002) 64.2 68.1 66.2

Jakarta (2002) 70.3 74.2 72.3

Egypt (2006) 68.98 73.6 71.3

Cairo (2006) 70.2 74.8 71.4

Sources:

Russia: Russian Demographic Yearbook, 2007, Goskomstat

China: China Human Development Report, 2005

India: Chennai - City Report of Chennai 2005; Kolkata - West BengalHuman Development Report 2004

Urban Maharashtra - Human Development: Strengthening District Level

Vital Statistics in India by F. Ram, Chander Shekhar and S.K Mohanty

India Total - ORGI, MHA, GOI (New Delhi), "Life expectancy at birth by sex

and residence, India 1970-75 to 2002-06"

Brazil: Indicadores Sociodemograficos, IBGE, 2006 (Note: 2006 Data is

total, not urban only)

Brazil 1970 Data (Note: Total LE, not divided by male/female): "Mortality,

Income Distribution, and Rural-Urban Residence in Brazil"

Jose Alberto M. de Carvalho and Charles H. Wood, Population and

Development Review, Vol. 4, No. 3 (Sep., 1978), pp. 405-420

Mexico: Conapo (2006a). Indicadores de mortalidad y fecundidad, 1990-

2006. Serie histrica basada en la conciliacin demogrfica a partir

del XII Censo General de Poblacin y Vivienda 2000 y el

II Conteo de Poblacin y Vivienda 2005. Note: Total Mexico not divided by

urban and rural

Indonesia: Human Development Report 2004

Turkey: Human Development Report 2004

Egypt: Human Development Report 2008


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Did You Say Soldiers?Males aged 15-24 in Russia, estimated and projected,

2000-2030, UNPD and U.S. Census Bureau

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Population,estimated

andprojected

(thousands)

US Census Bureau UN-High variant UN-Medium variant UN-Low variant

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, WorldPopulation Prospects: The 2008 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp,February 26, 2010 and US Census Bureau International Database. Available online athttp://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbnew.html , Accessed on February 26, 2010.
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbnew.htmlhttp://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbnew.html


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8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

Thousands

Males

Females

At Least Therell Be Old FolksEstimated and Projected Population Structure:

Russian Federation, 2005 vs. 2030, UN Estimates

20

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of theUnited Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision,

http://esa.un.org/unpp, February 26, 2010.


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21

Source: Timothy Heleniak, RegionalDistribution of the Muslim Population ofRussia, Eurasian Geography and Economics,2006, 47, No. 4, pp. 426-448, reproducedfrom Table 3

Come On, How Many

Muslims Really?

Traditionally MuslimEthnicities in Russia

(as enumerated in 1989

Census and 2002 Census)


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Source: Timothy Heleniak, Growth Poles and Ghost Towns in the Russian Far North, (paper presented at"Russia and the North" conference at Centre for Russia Studies Annual Conference, November 28-29,2007, Norwegian Institute for International Affairs, Oslo, Norway), Figure 1.

Go West (and South), Young Man!Net Migration in Russia, 19892002


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Russias Peacetime Demographic Crisis:

Dimensions, Causes, Implications

presentation- eberstadt 10.21.2010

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