presentation event on german solar technologies (pv & csp ... · presentation event on german...

Presentation Event on German Solar

Technologies (PV & CSP)

for Self-Consumption for Industrial

Customers

9th October 2018

Facilitator

Facilitator

German solar PV MarketThomas Rudolph

Speaker PV Working Group policy and communication

German Solar Association

Facilitator

© BSW | German solar PV Market| 09.10.2018 | Seite 3

Agenda

0. Thomas Rudolph

1. German Solar Association

2. Photovoltaics (PV) in Germany

German Renewable Energy Act

Market figures

3. Recent trends in the German PV Market

4. Business Models and Project Examples

5. Conclusion / Outlook

Facilitator


CV Thomas Rudolph

• 30 years in the PV industry

• In 1996 founded his own company

• 2001 founding factory for Solar module, Germany

• Today active especially in the association work

• Speaker PV Working Group policy and communication

Solar Industry Association (BSW), Berlin

• Board of Directors Solar Association Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

• Furthermore: public lectures and strategic communication (politics and

public), business consulting

Fotos © Thomas Rudolph

Aged 54, married, with two children (20 and 22),

drives (solar powered) electric car, lives in a real

(plus energy) solar house near Hamburg and is a

member of the Lions Club, Club 41 (Round

Table) and Schlaraffia Germany.

Facilitator


Agenda

0. Thomas Rudolph



Market figures





Facilitator



TASK To represent the solar industry in Germany in the

thermal and photovoltaic and storage sector

VISION A sustainable global energy supply provided by solar

(renewable) energy

ACTIVITIES Lobbying, political advice, market observation,

public relations, standardization

EXPERIENCE Active in the solar energy sector for over 30 years

REPRESENTS More than 800 members: solar producers, suppliers,

wholesalers, installers and other companies active in the

solar business from all over the world

HEADQUARTER Berlin

Facilitator



International development of markets and barriers

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active worldwide for solar energy

Partnerships,

business networks

Projects, Market reports,

esp. “Enabling PV”both

Facilitator


Agenda




Market figures




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2. Market

Basic principles of EEG (Renewable Energy Act)

Promote Renewable Energy Sources

• Feed in tariffs depending on renewable source

and capacity

• Priority feed-in and grid connection rights for

renewable energy

• Reallocation of system costs managed by the

transmission system operators using the “EEG

surcharge” (EEG-Umlage) for electricity

consumers (2017= 6,8 ct/kWh)

• Competitive bidding processes (auctions;

2017) to determine the financial support for new

freestanding photovoltaic (PV) installations and

roof-top installations (EEG 2017) from >750 kW

© BSW-Solar

Foto: Pixabay, CC0 Creative Commons

Facilitator


2. Market

Germany: 44 GW PV capacity, 1.7 Million Systems7 % of German power demand covered by PV

Even if Germany have significantly

less solar radiation than India.Grafik: CC0 Creative Commons

Facilitator


2. Market:

Germany still leads the solar world in per capita

528

407

324

323

305

255

212

183

157

152

148

121

119

95

17

0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 600.0

Germany

Japan

Italy

Belgium

Australia

Greece

Czech Republic

UK

USA

Europe

Austria

France

Spain

China

India

cumulative installed PV capacity end of 2017 in kWp/1,000 inhabitants* preliminary figures subject to change

Source: BSW-Solar calculations, market information nat. solar associations, analyst reports

TOP 10 – Total installed per capita capacity

Facilitator


2. Market

Segments and market shares of on-grid PV systems

14%

58%

28%

Tenant solar / multi family houses (est.)Residential (up to 10 kWp)Commercial (10 - 1.000 kWp)Ground mounted >1.000 kWp

Residential (up to 10kWp): ~

6 GW installed capacity;

970,000 systems

Commercial (10-

1.000kWp): ~24 GW

installed capacity;

660,000 systems

Large Scale / Ground

Mounted (> 1.000

kWp): ~12 GW

installed capacity;

3,700 systems

Tennant solar

Allocation / market shares (cumulative)

Fotos: BSW, Th. Rudolph, CC0 Creative Commons

Facilitator


2. Market development

Commercial (roof <1MWp) segments is the largest

2017 +16% (1,75 GWp)

installed vs. 2016

Growing installation

capacity especially in

the commercial

sector

Government targets

can be reached, but

barely.

The yearly installation

target is too low to

meet the German 2020

goals

Yearly volume of

auctions (600 MW) too

low; limited segment

Foto: BSW

Facilitator


2. Market: Tenders for ground-mounted systems

New market instrument in Germany

15

Applies to large scale PV systems (roof top and ground mounted 750kWp –

10.000 kWp)

Volume of auctions: 600MW/a (200MW per round) for PV systems per year

Applied from: January 1st 2017

Auction mode: pay-as-bid

Duration of payment: 20 years

Foto: juwi

Facilitator



High demand and strong price reduction

High demand: All rounds were strongly

oversubscribed several fold.

Volume of awarded bids is

decreasing: From an average

of 9.2 ct/kWh in the first round

to 4.3 ct/kWh in the last round (2/2018)

High rates of realization: recent

quotas between 90 and 100 percentPhoto's

Facilitator



PV below price level of wind onshore in Germany

PV technology won all bids at

pilot auction Wind-/Solar

2018 (average of 4,3 ct/kWh

for solar; Wind Onshore 4,7

ct/kWh).

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Agenda



Market figures





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Success factors

19

decreasing

System Prices

Attractive

Self Consumption

New Market Actors

Real Estate Companies,

Municipalities

Falling Prices for

Solar Batteries

Trend towards

E-Mobility

New Business Models with

Tenant Solar

Facilitator


Trend I

Rresidential (roof <10kWp) segment growth most

Stable market segment partially

due to interest in solar home

storage

Main driver: self-consumption

and autarky

This segment represents 21% of

the market volume 2017

Photo's

Facilitator


Trend II: Self-consumption. It is the most important

aspect of the majority of PV installations

Decreasing PV system prices reduce electricity cost

In many cases solar energy is cheaper than electricity from the utility

Facilitator


• Solar power is much cheaper than

electricity from the utility

• Storage systems can significantly

increase self consumption

• More than 100,000 PV storage

systems installed (summer 2018)

• That’s more than 40% of the newly

installed PV plants (up to 30 kWp)

• German government will promote

and subsidize storage systems until

the end of 2018

Trend III: Solar Power Storage Systems

Market driver and new business case for Installers

and Industry

Grafik © BSW

Facilitator


Trend III: Solar Power Storage Systems

Prices decline further

Prices for small lithium storage systems have fallen by nearly 44 % since 2013

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Trend IV: Commercial and industrial Buildings

factory buildings

Warehouses

Farms

Supermarkets

Shopping mall

Car Park shading

and moreFotos: Th. Rudolph, BSW

Facilitator


Trend IV: Commercial and industrial Buildings with self-consumption

Details:

Rooftop systems up to 750kWp

Best with east / west orientation to produce

more electricity throughout the day -

increases self-consumption!

Self-consumption plus EEG surcharge of

approx. 2.7€ct/kWh

PV electricity production costs (all in)

<10€ct/kWh

Feed-in-Tariff up to 100kWp: 8.44 €ct/kWh

(20years)

>100kWp: mandatory direct marketing

(Compensation = Feed-in-Tariff minus

market price)

Fotos: Th. Rudolph, BSW

Facilitator


Trend IV: Large Scale Rooftop Solar in GermanyBenefits of Large scale PV Systems - the reasons for the boom

Solar power up to 70% cheaper

than electricity from the utility

High rates of self consumption

possible and necessary

Feed-in-tariff for feeding into the

grid

Low system prices

new business model also for

electric utilities

Foto: Th. Rudolph, Hagebau, Rellingen

Facilitator


Agenda



Market figures





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4. Business Models (overview)

1. Self-consumption

PV power produced on site is consumed by operators themselves, thus saving

electricity coming from the grid

2. Self-consumption/system leasing models

Potentials for this business model also exist in rental realty segment; conceivable

application through system lease and the organization of self-consumption

operator collectives

3. Electricity supply via direct power lines for commerce, trade &

services and private consumers (PPA)

Solar power supply via direct power lines and PPA contracts

4. Local power supply business model

Third parties in local proximity are supplied with electricity (multi-storey residential

housing, commercial third-party real estate, contracting concepts etc.)

Facilitator


Project Example I: Industrial Park with High

efficiency due to high rates of self consumption

System details:

Industrial Park (Germany, factory specialized

in the recycling of wood and steel. Located

south Germany

351 kWp, generate around 340,000 kWh/a

Online monitoring

average level of autarky of 44 % (maximum

level: 70 %)

self-consumption level 53 % (maximum level:

90 %)

Financing:

Investment: 410,000 €

15-year bank loan; interest rate 2.8 %

expected return on invest 7.5 %

East/ West installation

optimized for self-consumption

Foto: BSW

Facilitator


Project Example II: Large Scale Rooftop Solar with

high rate of self-consumption

System details:

Installed 2016 near Hamburg

82,36 kWp, yield 900 kWh/KWp/a

East/ West installation for optimal self

consumption

Online monitoring

69 % direct consumption of the PV

production

Production cost only 9,8 ct/€ (compared to

utility price: 20ct/€

Annual energy savings around € 8.164,--

Small system on a large roof,

optimized for self-consumption

Foto: Chr. Meyer, Hermann Meyer, Rellingen

Facilitator


Agenda



Market figures





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Outlook: Germany is ready for more RE

grid could already handle 100 GW PV

15-minute power gradients of – 2.7 and + 4.3 GW

mastered in an impressive way

Supply was not endangered at any time,

no technical intervention by transmission systems

operators at any time.

Frequency and balancing power stayed within

normal parameters at all time

Fraunhofer Institute IWES: “The grid is ready today

for a greater amount of fluctuating renewable energy.

The solar eclipse over Germany was equivalent to

the estimated strain on the grid in 2030 for around

100 hours a year at > 50% RES electricity.

German grid withstood "stress test" on March 20th 2015 during a partial solar eclipse.

Note: Average grid down-

time in Germany is only

12 minutes per year

(2017)

Fo

to:

Pix

abay,

CC

0 C

reative C

om

mons

Facilitator


Outlook: Extra-Tenders - Coalition agreement

commits to additional 4 GW PV capacity

Background: Due to coalition

agreement between CDU/CSU and

SPD, extra tenders must be

organized…

in order to achieve the “energy

transition targets 2020”

Volume of auctions: 2,000 MW per

year (just PV); in total 4,000 MW

Timeline: adoption by parliament in

autumn 2018 latest

Realization Period: as soon as

possible; depending on bidding period,

planned for 2019 till 2021

33

Foto: BSW

Facilitator


Conclusion

• In the post Feed-In-Tariff era, business models in Germany will be

driven by high rates of self consumption

• Storage and demand side management will be more and more

important

• New business models will serve new consumer groups

• PV plants of over 750kWp are only possible by tendering reducing

prices

Benefiting from the experience and products of

BSW-Solar. Bringing together solar specialists.

Facilitator


Thank you for your attention…

3

5

Thomas Rudolph Speaker PV Working Group policy and communicationGerman Solar [email protected]

Foto: BSW

mailto:[email protected]

Facilitator


Congratulations

India was the world's second largest

solar market in the first half of this

year, outperforming the United

States in terms of solar capacity

expansion.

While China installed around 24.3

gigawatts (GW) of photovoltaic

capacity in the first half of 2018, India

added 4.9 GW and 4.7 GW in the

US.

The three largest solar markets in the

world together installed 33.9 GW.

According to the latest figures from

the consulting firm Mercom Capital

Group. 04.10.2018

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