presentation from ahmed benmimoun at parallel session on fots
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Challenges in Analysing Data of ADAS in a Field Operational Test: the euroFOT Experience
TRA 2010
Dr. Ahmed Benmimoun
Brussels, June 2010
Institut für Kraftfahrzeuge, RWTH Aachen University
www.eurofot-ip.eu11.06.2010 A. Benmimoun - TRA 2010
Content
• Motivation and Objectives
• Data Analysis Challenges
• Approach
Incident Detection
Safety Impacts
• Summary and Outlook
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Objectives of Data Analysis (1/2)
To quantify the impacts on EU level of the functions
tested in the FOT on traffic efficiency, safety,
environment and driver behaviour
Taking into account various penetration rates
Providing input for the socio-economic cost-benefit
analysis (CBA)
11.06.2010 A. Benmimoun - TRA 2010
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Objectives of Data Analysis (2/2)
The following impacts will be quantified for use in the
CBA:
Traffic safety: changes in the number of accidents with
fatalities, injuries (severe, slight) or material damage only
Traffic efficiency:
direct effects: travel time changes, but also
homogenisation/reduction of congestion effects for environmental
impact assessment
indirect effects: changes in the amount of accident related
congestion (based on changes in number of accidents)
Environment: changes in fuel consumption and emissions of
CO2
due to direct traffic efficiency effects
due to changes in accident related congestion
11.06.2010 A. Benmimoun - TRA 2010
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Data Analysis Challenges
• Adaptation of the FESTA analysis methodology to the specific
needs of euroFOT (different sites, functions, combined functions,
data acquisition systems)
• Automation of evaluation process, due to the large amount of data
• Ensuring that all pre-defined research questions are addressed,
despite vehicles being equipped with different sensors
• Determination of incidents without video data
• Translation of surrogate measures into accident reduction
potential, for different penetration rates
• Designing a complete analysis, from data acquisition through to
impact assessment. This involves integrating various existing
methodologies and filling in some remaining gaps
08.06.2010 A. Benmimoun - TRA 2010
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Data Analysis Approach
11.06.2010 A. Benmimoun - TRA 2010
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General Approach for the Impact
AssessmentThe two following methods are planned for the impact assessment,
which needs to provide input for the CBA:
•Direct route: Impact assessment directly from the FOT-data (scaling up via situational variables)
Direct impacts are more reliable because data from the FOT is used without assumptions
•Modelling route: Impact assessment using models to assess effects for
higher penetration rates (also includes scaling up via situational
variables)Especially for functions that influence behaviour of other vehicles (e.g. ACC) the direct route is not sufficient
Use of FOT data as input for models (e.g. changes in driving behaviour)
Interaction with other (equipped and non-equipped) vehicles can be modelled
Higher penetration rates than found on the road in the FOT can be modelled
Possibility to analyse network effects
11.06.2010 A. Benmimoun - TRA 2010
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Tools for Modelling Activties
11.06.2010 A. Benmimoun - TRA 2010
PELOPS
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Safety Impacts
11.06.2010 A. Benmimoun - TRA 2010
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Determination of Incidents without
Verification by Video Data
•First approach utilised triggers used in the US FOTs � a high number of false detections have been observed (verification by video data)
•New approach is defined, which is based mainly on three different data sets
1. Use of data from driving experiments to determine what is an extraordinary driving situation (15 drivers, pre-defined test track with urban, rural as well as motorway areas) � triggers and thresholds for critical situations
2. Re-production of specific critical situations on test tracks, in order tohave further information on the pre-history of the situation and the possibility to check suitability of defined thresholds
3. Use of video data from the pilot to identify which factors lead to false detections and eliminate these by adaptationof triggers
� Reduction of false detection rate from 75 % to 5 %
08.06.2010 A. Benmimoun - TRA 2010
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Determination of Incidents without Verification by Video Data
11.06.2010 A. Benmimoun - TRA 2010
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Safety Impacts
Risk Assessment Appraoch• Split accident risk by (combinations of) situational variables:
Road type (urban / rural / motorway).
Weather (normal / adverse).
Lighting (light / dark).
Time of day (morning peak / evening peak / night / rest of the day).
Road form if road type is not motorway (link / intersection).
Traffic situation if road type is motorway (congestion / free flow).
Vehicle type (passenger car / truck).
For trucks: empty / loaded.
• Compute accident risk
per accident type
11.06.2010 A. Benmimoun - TRA 2010
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Safety Impacts
Incident-based AppraochDetermine risk = (fatal) crash probability per kilometer, based on FOT data
11.06.2010 A. Benmimoun - TRA 2010
Additional informationAdditional
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SPSCP
SPSCPCSPCPCPCPR
)()|(
)()|(1)|()()()(
P(C) is the probability of a crash per FOT kilometer with/without the system
Accident database
Historical crash rates and division
over conflicts
FOT data
Conflict rates
Exposure Ratio
Identify conflicts preceding crashes
Identify crashes that can be prevented
System
Prevention Ratio
Accident database
Historical crash rates and division
over conflicts
FOT data
Conflict rates
Exposure Ratio
Identify conflicts preceding crashes
Identify crashes that can be prevented
System
Prevention Ratio
FOT Data Risk
Additional information
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Summary and Outlook
Current status:
• Basic methodology defined so far and described in a Data
Analysis Plan for each Vehicle Management Centre in euroFOT
Next steps:
• Refinement of methodology and approach for impact assessmentTranslation of surrogate measures (changes in driver and driving behaviour) into changes in accident risk
Translation of decrease of incidents into decrease of accidents
...
• Test and evaluation of the methodology with data from piloting
and FOT
• Finalisation of methodology for impact assessment
• Conduction of impact assessment for the considered functions
• Conduction of a socio-economic cost-benefit analysis
• Final results are to be expected for autumn 2011
11.06.2010 A. Benmimoun - TRA 2010
www.eurofot-ip.eu11.06.2010 Mohamed Benmimoun - TRA 2010, Brussels
Thank you for your attention…
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