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8/3/2019 Presentation Graedel

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Industrial Ecology,Resource Decoupling, and

the “Master Equation”

Thomas E. Graedel

Yale University

Center for Industrial EcologyYale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies



0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

Year

Global Zinc Use, 1700-2000



Global per Capita Metals Use in the 20th Century

0.1

1.0

10.0

100.0

1000.0

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

M i n e P r o d u c t i o n P e r C a p i t a R e l a t i v e t o 1 9 0 0

Al

Cr

Ni

Cu

WZnFe

AuPbAg

Sn



Histories of Australian Ore Grades, 1845-2007Source: G.M. Mudd, Sustainability of Mining in Australia, Research Report No. RR5, Monash Univ.,

2007.



Is this a recipe for trouble?



Defining Decoupling

economic activity(GDP)

resource use

resource use

TIME

relative

decoupling

absolute

decoupling



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1 9 8 1

1 9 8 4

1 9 8 7

1 9 9 0

1 9 9 3

1 9 9 6

1 9 9 9

2 0 0 2

t h o u

s a n d y

e n / m e t r

i c t o n

Japanese Resource Decoupling



Overall Environmental/Sustainability Impact =

Pop. x GDP x resource use x envt./sust. impact

person GDP unit of resource use

The “Master Equation”



Source: www.faculty.fairfield.edu/.../Oct16/Part4.html

http://www.faculty.fairfield.edu/faculty/hodgson/Courses/so191/Projects2007/Piazza/Oct16/Part4.html

http://www.faculty.fairfield.edu/faculty/hodgson/Courses/so191/Projects2007/Piazza/Oct16/Part4.html



Copper Stock per capita

137 kg Cu 35 kg Cu

New Haven Beijing



Copper Stock and Copper Need

137 kg Cu 137 kg Cu

New Haven Beijing

Global need in 2040

1.3 Pg Cu



Limits to Materials:Copper Stock and Copper Supply

137 kg Cu 137 kg Cu

New Haven Beijing

Global need in 2040 Global resource

1.3 Pg Cu 1.6 Pg Cu



http://www.allaboardwashington.org/cms/images/uploads/Trains_Crop2.jpg



A Typical Water Treatment System

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://civil.engr.siu.edu/Ray_H2ODsn/images/WTPAerial1.jpg&imgrefurl=http://civil.engr.siu.edu/Ray_H2ODsn/Default.asp&usg=__WrYw0oEkKBTB3yzEETk4P87ga3w=&h=438&w=500&sz=97&hl=en&start=5&tbnid=fsIDd54infh_bM:&tbnh=114&tbnw=130&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dwater%2Btreatment%2Bplant%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DX

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://civil.engr.siu.edu/Ray_H2ODsn/images/WTPAerial1.jpg&

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://civil.engr.siu.edu/Ray_H2ODsn/images/WTPAerial1.jpg&



Copper Use as a Function of Wealth

0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0

G D P p e r c a p i ta , P P P (c u rre n t in t e rn a t io n a l $ )

0

4

8

1 2

C o p p e r p e r C a p i t a E n t e r i n

g U s e ( k g / y r )

S o u th K o re aM a l a y si a

N o r w a y

U S A

I s r a e lJ a p a n

G e r m a n y

K a z a k h s t a n

U z b e k i s t a n

S a u d i A r a b i a

d a t a se t w i t h o u t H o n g K o n g & S i n g a p o re

F r a n c e

A r g e n t i n a

b ( 1 )

N e w Z e a l a n d

U A E

I n d i a

A u s t r i a

0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0

G D P p e r c a p i ta , P P P (c u rre n t in t e rn a t io n a l $ )

0

4

8

1 2

C o p p e r p e r C a p i t a E n t e r i n

g U s e ( k g / y r )

S o u th K o re aM a l a y si a

N o r w a y

U S A

I s r a e lJ a p a n

G e r m a n y

K a z a k h s t a n

U z b e k i s t a n

S a u d i A r a b i a

d a t a se t w i t h o u t H o n g K o n g & S i n g a p o re

F r a n c e

A r g e n t i n a

b ( 1 )

N e w Z e a l a n d

U A E

I n d i a

A u s t r i a



The Master Equation

2050

/2010 1.5 3 2 ??

Overall Environmental Impact =

Population x GDP x resource use x environmental impactperson GDP unit of resource use



Environmental Improvement

in The Netherlands

100

GDP

CO2 emissions

Wastegeneration

Time1980 2010



20 24 29

68 7095

130 142160 164

225

263

0

100

200

300

L e a d

C o l d r o l l e d s t e e

l

G a l v a n i z e d s t e e

l

H D - P E

P P

A B S

N y l o n 6

C h r o m e s t e e

l

M a g n e s i u m

N y l o n 6 . 6

A l u m i n u m s h e e t

T i t a n i u m

20 24 29

68 7095

130 142160 164

225

263

0

100

200

300

L e a d

C o l d r o l l e d s t e e

l

G a l v a n i z e d s t e e

l

H D - P E

P P

A B S

N y l o n 6

C h r o m e s t e e

l

M a g n e s i u m

N y l o n 6 . 6

A l u m i n u m s h e e t

T i t a n i u m P

r i m a r y E n e r g

y C o n s u m p t i o

n ( M J / k g )

Embedded Energy for Different Industrial Materials

Source: M. Schukert et al., 3 rd Intl. Conf. Ecomaterials., Tokyo, 1997



Highland Valley Canada Copper Mine Empoundment

Source: swittersb.wordpress.com/2008/08/

http://swittersb.wordpress.com/2008/08/

http://swittersb.wordpress.com/2008/08/



Implications for Policy of

Resource Supply and Use• Virgin resources are being used at increasing rates

• We demand resources without a good idea of theultimate quantities available for extraction

• The master equation demonstrates that absolutedecoupling will be a product of addressing the technical

and societal relationships that link personal wealth,development, and consumption

• New recycling technology and design for recycling willhelp, but major cultural changes to “dematerialize” wantsand needs are probably the most effective way to insurelong term sustainability



The Challenge of Decoupling Needs and Wantsfrom Their Realization

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