Presentation of the tools developed (part 1)

Success & failures of forecasting systems

-> Emilio GARCIA LADONA, ICM-CSIC

Presentation of the tools developed (part 1)

Mech. transport = wind + currents + waves + dispersion

Pollutant (t) = Bio-chem. Transf. + Mech. transport

Oil Spill (and SAR) forecasting system

TOSCA

What is a forecasting system ?

ModelInitial Conditions (Observational

Component)+

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MT Haven, 1991, 145.000 t, within Top 10 spills

Examples

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Source: Forecasting the Prestige oil spills, Daniel, et al. Interspill 2004.

Lebanon spill, 2006

from Coppini et al., 2010

Present SituationImprovements in terms of number of ocean and oil spills

modelsMediterranean (source MOONGOOS) : •at least 3 global basin models and up to 13 high resolution regional models•MOHID, MEDSLIK II, TESEO, GNOME, MOTHY, OILTRANS, SIMPAR, DemWaq…•DREAM (SINTEF), OILMAP (ASA) …..

TOSCA validation activitiesTest sites experiments (i.e Balearic exp.)Training activities with SAR services

Validation activities

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IBI

SST Obs. vs Models

27/10

29/10 30/10

ESEO

27/10

SOCIB

27/10

27/10

30/10

30/1030/10

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Operational SystemsESEOMEDMED-MYOCEANIBI-MYOCEANSOCIB-IMEDEASASEMAR: OILMAP / SARMAP

ModelsESEO SOCIB

IBI MED-MY

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Model Intercomp: (lagrangian)

ESEOIBI-MYOCEAN SOCIB-IMEDEA MED-MYOCEAN

Pure advection using an accurate particle tracer algorithm

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Training exercises

4 SAR exercises in collaborationwith SASEMAR using TOSCA developed drifters

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SAR Exercise: Valencia OffshoreMontecarlo + HIRLAM (AEMET) + HYCOM

Montecarlo + Observed + Observed

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Summary

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Both ocean and oil spills systems have been improved in the past decade (i.e. CALPREA, MERSEA, MYOCEAN, ARCOPOL, etc)

Oil spill codes do not differ too much in terms of numerics, but the forecasting skill is strongly dependent on the accurarcy and representativity of the input/initial fields

Present operational models provided significant different solutions(models with higher resolutions were more representative of observations)

Observations improved model forecast in some cases dramatically.

Forecast improvements indoubtelly require having good initial conditions (observations are crucial!)

The situation of present operational products clearly reveals the need of further tests and validation in close cooperation with SAR agencies.

Thanks for attendingTOSCA Final Meeting!