presentation to the fiji australia business council

PRESENTATION TO THE

FIJI AUSTRALIA BUSINESS COUNCIL

THE FIJI ECONOMY: THE FIJI ECONOMY: FACING THE GLOBAL CRISISFACING THE GLOBAL CRISIS

Mr Savenaca NarubeMr Savenaca NarubeGovernor, Governor, Reserve Bank of Fiji Reserve Bank of Fiji

2 December 20082 December 2008Reserve Bank of Fiji

OUTLINE

• GLOBAL CRISIS

• EXPOSURE TO TRADE IN GOODS &

SERVICES

• GROWTH OUTLOOK

• KEY CHALLENGES AND POLICY

RESPONSES

• SUMMARY

Reserve Bank of Fiji

SNAPSHOT OF THE FIJI ECONOMY

• Economy declined heavily in 2007

• Recovery to begin this year but low growth

• The trade deficit is widening and exerting pressure on foreign reserves

• Inflation has risen to a 20-year high but to decline to a moderate level in 2009

• Investment has fallen

• Unemployment is rising

• Poverty is worsening

NOW COMES THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS …..Reserve Bank of Fiji

3.9

3.0

2.2

4.1

5.0

3.9

3.7

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

2004 2005 2006 2007(e) 2008(f) 2009(f)

Forecast @ JulForecast @ OctForecast @ Nov

%

WORLD GDP GROWTH

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook – Nov 08Reserve Bank of Fiji

2.0

4.2

3.2

2.1

2.62.5

0.70.5

-0.7

2.2

1.5

-0.2

-0.5

1.21.4

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

United States Australia New Zealand Japan Eurozone

2007(e) 2008(f) 2009(f)

%

TRADING PARTNERS’ OUTLOOK

Source: World Economic Outlook – Oct 08 & Nov 08

0.10.1

1.61.6

3.23.23.13.1

2.02.0

2.12.1

0.70.7

0.50.5

1.31.3

0.20.2


0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

EXCHANGE RATES OF SELECTED CURRENCIES AGAINST FJD

NZD/AUD/EUR/USD

NZD 11%

AUD 16%

2007 2008

USD -14%

EURO -4%


YEN -26%

YEN

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O

NEER 103..05

REER 106.23

Index

2006 20072005200420032002200120001999199819971996 2008Reserve Bank of Fiji

REER/NEER (Monthly Average)

EXPOSURE TO EXPOSURE TO TRADE IN GOODS TRADE IN GOODS

& SERVICES& SERVICES



US20%

Japan6%

Australia18%

NZ9%

Europe, incl UK22%

Others14%

Pacifc Islands7%

China1%

HK2%Singapore

1%

Source: FIBOS

*Refers to 2007

FIJI’S COMMODITY EXPORT* DESTINATIONS

100

24

7 5 5 5 40

102030405060708090

100110

MineralWater

Fresh Fish Coral &Similar

Materials

FlavouredWater

Sugar Mahogany Taro

$M

MAJOR EXPORTS* TO US

Reserve Bank of Fiji Source: FIBOS

*Represents 84% of total commodity exports to the US in 2007

Demand Will Slow Down

125

165

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Sugar Fresh Fish Ginger Coconut Oil

$M


MAJOR EXPORTS* TO EUROPE

*Represents 83% of total commodity exports to the UK, Germany, France & Italy in 2007

Sugar Exports Unaffected

27

17

6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Woodchips Fresh Fish Sugar

$M

MAJOR EXPORTS* TO JAPAN


*Represents 88% of total commodity exports to Japan in 2007


80

17

8 5 4 30

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Garments SweetBiscuits

Textiles Taro UncookedPasta

Gold

$M

MAJOR EXPORTS* TO AUS


*Represents 73% of total commodity exports to Australia in 2007

Garments May Be Affected

14

11

6

3 3 3

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Taro Garments UncookedPasta

Lead Wasteand Scrap

Fresh Fish Molasses

$M

MAJOR EXPORTS* TO NZ


*Represents 48% of total commodity exports to New Zealand in 2007


IMPACT ON EXPORTS

• Slowdown in exports which are demand driven

– Tourism

– Water

– Garments

• Supply driven exports – structural constraints

binding

• Slowdown in growth of total exports



US12%

Japan4%

Australia39%

NZ19%

Continental Europe, incl UK

11%

Others5%Pacifc Islands

6%

Asia4%

VISITOR ARRIVALS* BY COUNTRY

Source: FIBOS

*Refers to 2007

‘000s

440

298

415 418 398317

374

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2002 2003 2004(p) 2005(p) 2006(p) 2007(p) 2008(f) 2009(f)

ForecastAnnualJan to Sep

VISITOR ARRIVALS

398431

503550 545 539

580

Reserve Bank of Fiji Source: FIBOS & Macroeconomic Committee

600

11%

8%8%3%3%

Growth Under Threat

‘000s


4948

0

20

40

60

80

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004(p) 2005(p) 2006(p) 2007 2008(f)

Jan to Sep Annual

VISITOR ARRIVALS - USA

Source: FIBOS

74

6665

58595865

53

62

Already Declining

‘000s


6058

0

20

40

60

80

100

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004(p) 2005(p) 2006(p) 2007(p) 2008(f)

Jan to Sep Annual

VISITOR ARRIVALS - EUROPE

Source: FIBOS

91

81

717265

51

71

52

69

Already Declining

‘000s


1718

0

10

20

30

40

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004(p) 2005(p) 2006(p) 2007(p) 2008(f)

Jan to Sep Annual

VISITOR ARRIVALS - JAPAN

Source: FIBOS

30

242423

26

2023

20

38

Already Declining

‘000s


7979

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004(p) 2005(p) 2006(p) 2007(p) 2008(f)

Jan to Sep Annual

VISITOR ARRIVALS - NZ

Source: FIBOS

96

108104

756866

100

49

72

Already Flat

‘000s


172145

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004(p) 2005(p) 2006(p) 2007 2008(f)

Jan to Sep Annual

VISITOR ARRIVALS - AUSTRALIA

Source: FIBOS

181

198

176

142

124

98

207

77

118

Key Source of Growth


CAD2% Others

2%

AUD21%

GBP6%

USD51%

EUR4%

NZD14%

REMITTANCES* BY CURRENCY

Source: RBF*Cumulative for the period Sep-07 to Jun-08, excluding remittances received in FJD

188

213232

297311

256

231 231

93

322

44

121134

158

184193

230

171

133

0

35

70

105

140

175

210

245

280

315

350

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(f) 2009(f)

Annual

Cumulative to August

Forecast

$M

PERSONAL REMITTANCES


-10%-10%

-22%-22%

Source: RBF & Macroeconomic Committee

Already Declining

IMPACT ON SERVICES

• Reduce tourist arrivals

– Japan, Europe and US was already declining

– NZ tourists were also flat

– Australia was the growth industry

– Exchange rate will further dampen demand

• Remittances will decline further


Australia23%

NZ18%

India2%

Others13%

Japan3%

UK1%

Singapore34%

US3%

China3%


FIJI’S ORIGIN OF IMPORTS

Source: FIBOS

*Refers to 2007 Total Imports = $2,890m

345

32

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Aeroplane Parts Medicaments Oil Cake andResidue of Soya

Bean Oil

Anti-KnockPreparations

$M

IMPORTS* FROM UNITED STATES


*Represents 47% of total commodity imports from the US in 2007

333

9

0

2

4

6

8

10

Cement Clinkers Optical FibreCables

TransportVessesls

Refuse Collectors

$M

IMPORTS* FROM JAPAN


*Represents 21% of total commodity imports from Japan in 2007

Cement & Car Prices Will Rise

8 8910

24

6168

0

20

40

60

80

Wheat Textiles LiquefiedButanes

CrudeSoya

Bean Oil

AviationTurbine

Fuel

BrownRice

Cream &Milk forInfants

$M

IMPORTS* FROM AUSTRALIA


*Represents 28% of total commodity imports from Australia in 2007

Food Prices Will Drop…

78

9911

1314

0

5

10

15

Potatoes FrozenSheep Meatwith Bones

Polymers SemiFinished

Products ofIron andNon-alloy

Steel

Cream andMilk forInfants

PrintedPapers

CorrugatedPaper &

Paperboard

$M

IMPORTS* FROM NEW ZEALAND


*Represents 14% of total commodity imports from New Zealand in 2007

Food Prices Will Drop…

IMPACT ON IMPORTS

• Imports will rise

– Price of cars and auto parts will rise – demand will

drop

– Oil price in Fiji dollar will rise – will partly offset

the lower global price

– Prices of food and manufactured items will drop –

demand may be inelastic

– Cement price will riseReserve Bank of Fiji

-800 -840-900

-1296

-1530-1665

-2074-2180 -2197 -2213

-726

-1895

-497-594 -604

-700

-943

-1104

-1449

-1184

-1524

-2,750

-2,350

-1,950

-1,550

-1,150

-750

-350

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(f) 2009(f) 2010(f) 2011(f)

Annual Cumulative to September

F$M

*C.I.F Accrual data excluding aircraft

Source: FIBOS and Macroeconomic Committee

5%5% 1%1% 1%1%

TRADE BALANCE


29%

25%

INVESTMENT

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007(e)

% of GDP

Private

Government

Statutory Bodies & Public Enterprises

Source: FIBOSReserve Bank of Fiji

GROWTH GROWTH OUTLOOKOUTLOOK


-6.6

1.7 1.41.9

1.2

2.41.9 1.5

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

2007(p) 2008(f) 2009(f) 2010(f) 2011(f)

Forecast @ August 2008 Forecast @ October 2008%


GDP GROWTH: 2006-2011

Source: FIBOS & Macroeconomic Committee

MAJOR DRIVERS

• Tourism

• Agriculture –fishing, forestry

• Manufacturing, except garments

• Mining – gold

• Water


MAJOR DRAG

• Community & social services – Government

expenditure (2010 & 2011)


1.3

1.92.1

2.42.7

3.6

4.6

0

1

2

3

4

5

Fiji Tonga Kiribati PNG Vanuatu Sol Is Samoa

GROWTH IN SELECTED PACIFIC ISLAND ECONOMIES

%

Average Growth 2001-2007

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (Oct & Nov 2008) & FIBOS

Growth Is Too Low


0.3

1.31.6

3.6

5.4

7.0

8.2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Seychelles Fiji Jamaica Mauritius Singapore Maldives Trinidad &Tobago

%

Average Growth 2001-2007

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (Oct & Nov 2008) & FIBOS

GROWTH IN SELECTED SMALL ISLAND DEVELOPING STATES

Growth Is Too Low

KEY CHALLENGES KEY CHALLENGES AND POLICY MIXAND POLICY MIX


KEY CHALLENGES

• Safeguarding Fiji’s external position

• Raising exports

• Raising investment

• Raising and sustaining growth


BUDGETARY MEASURES

• PRO GROWTH

– 3% of GDP deficit

– Support for priority sectors

Tourism

Agriculture

ICT


BUDGETARY MEASURES

• BALANCE OF PAYMENTS SUPPORT

– Bio Fuel

– Import Substitution

– Fiji Diaspora

– Increase in tariffs

• INVESTMENT

– Infrastructure development

– Incentives


MONETARY MEASURES

• BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

– Credit Ceiling

– Exchange Controls

• INVESTMENT

– Interest rates

– Special approvals


GOVERNMENT UNDERLYING BALANCE


-193

-92-96

-157-168

-146

-220

-180

-140

-100

-60

-20

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(r) 2009(b)

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0$M

Source: Ministry of Finance

% of GDP

Expansionary Stance

GOVERNMENT REVENUE


1,4651,386

1,2781,288

1,1211,083

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(r) 2009(b)

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

$M

Source: Ministry of Finance

% of GDP

1,3341,2141,2031,232

1,0801,024

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(r) 2009(b)

18.0

19.0

20.0

21.0

22.0

23.0

$M

GOVERNMENT OPERATING EXPENDITURE

Reserve Bank of Fiji Source: Ministry of Finance

% of GDPToo High as % of GDP

GOVERNMENT CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

216

171

107

129129130

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(r) 2009(b)

0

1

2

3

4

5$M

Reserve Bank of Fiji Source: Ministry of Finance

% of GDPGood Increase…

GOVERNMENT DEBT


45 45 43 41

38

77

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2005 2006 2007 2008(r) 2009(b) 2010(b) 2011(b)

Domestic External

4852

5048

% of GDP

48 47 46

Deficit is Sustainable

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

J FMAMJ J A S ON D J FMAM J J A S ON D J FMAM J J A S ON D J FMAMJ J A S O

COMMERCIAL BANK’S LENDING RATE

8%

%


2005 2006 2007 2008

Declining …

5.0

7.0

9.0

11.0

13.0

15.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J

New Zealand

PNG

Fiji

Samoa

Australia

%

2006Source: International Financial Statistics

2007Reserve Bank of Fiji

LENDING RATES:FIJI & SELECTED COUNTRIES

2008

Lowest In Region

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

J F M AM J J A S O N D J F M AM J J A S O N D J F M AM J J A S O N D J F M AM J J A S O

Consumption Investment

COMMERCIAL BANKS’ INVESTMENT & CONSUMPTION

LENDING%

2005 2006 2007

11%

2008

17%


Rising Credit

7.5

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

8.5

INFLATION

200820072006

% Forecast

Reserve Bank of Fiji Source: FIBOS and Reserve Bank of Fiji

Will Moderate

883

1016

1116

1045

948 970

1097

908866

959

864

3.4

0

150

300

450

600

750

900

1050

1200

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Oct-08

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10 Months of Imports (goods)$M

Months of Imports


OFFICIAL FOREIGN RESERVESStill Under Pressure

SUMMARY

• Weak Fundamentals

• Financial Crisis will Reduce Potential

• Four Key Challenges

• Policy Mix

• Growth is too Low

• Agenda to Lift Growth Rests on Exports


THANK YOUTHANK YOU


HOW DO WE HOW DO WE COMPARE WITH COMPARE WITH

THE ASIAN CRISIS?THE ASIAN CRISIS?


2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

15000

16000

17000

18000

Jan-96 Mar-96 Jun-96 Sep-96 Dec-96 Mar-97 Jun-97 Sep-97 Dec-97 Mar-98 Jun-98 Sep-98 Dec-98

INDONESIAN RUPIAH AGAINST USD: 1996-98


Rupiah weakened

by 130% in 1997

RUPIAH

9000910092009300940095009600970098009900

100001010010200103001040010500106001070010800109001100011100

2-Jan 28-Jan 21-Feb 18-Mar 11-Apr 7-May 2-Jun 26-Jun 22-Jul 15-Aug 10-Sep 6-Oct 30-Oct

INDONESIAN RUPIAH AGAINST USD: 2008


Rupiah weakened by 20% so far in 2008

RUPIAH

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

2000


KOREAN WON AGAINST USD: 1996-98


Won weakened

by 102% in 1997

WON

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

2-Jan 28-Jan 21-Feb 18-Mar 11-Apr 7-May 2-Jun 26-Jun 22-Jul 15-Aug 10-Sep 6-Oct 30-Oct

KOREAN WON AGAINST USD: 2008


WON

Won weakened by 38% so far in 2008

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60


THAI BAHT AGAINST USD: 1996-98


Baht weakened by 82% in

1997

BAHT

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

1-Jan 25-Jan 20-Feb 17-Mar 10-Apr 6-May 30-May 25-Jun 21-Jul 14-Aug 9-Sep 3-Oct 29-Oct

THAI BAHT AGAINST USD: 2008


BAHT

Baht weakened by 18% so far in 2008

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9


SINGAPORE DOLLAR AGAINST USD: 1996-98


Singapore Dollar

weakened by 20% in

1997

SGD

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1-Jan 25-Jan 20-Feb 17-Mar 10-Apr 6-May 30-May 25-Jun 21-Jul 14-Aug 9-Sep 3-Oct 29-Oct

SINGAPORE DOLLAR AGAINST USD: 2008


SGD

Singapore Dollar

weakened by 3% so

far in 2008

MAJOR POLICY RESPONSE

• 20% DEVALUATION

• Why devaluation was necessary?

– Currencies of our major trading partners fell against the

US dollar so Fiji goods became expensive

– Competitor Asian currencies also fell drastically against

the US dollar so Fiji lost competitiveness/business

• Needed to compete on price

– Very important to make what we sold cheaper


-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00

IMPACT ON INFLATION%


Oct-98: 9.1%

Inflation RoseInflation Rose

11

-7

6

2

13

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

%


IMPACT ON EXPORTS

Accrual data excluding aircraft

Source: FIBOS

Exports Growth ReboundedExports Growth Rebounded

4.8

-2.2

1.3

8.8

-1.6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

%


IMPACT ON GROWTH


Economy Recovered GraduallyEconomy Recovered Gradually

97

66

1721

156

0

50

100

150

200

Building &Construction

Manufacturing Electricity, Gas& Water

Transport,Storage &

Communication

Others

$M

COMMERCIAL BANKS’ SPECIAL LOAN APPROVALS BY PURPOSE

(As At 21/11/08)

TOTAL APPROVALS - $356m


85

-427-500

119

-28

-600-540-480-420-360-300-240-180-120

-600

60120180

Europe* US Japan NZ Australia

BALANCE OF TRADE - 2007

Source: FIBOSReserve Bank of Fiji

$M

Trade Surplus

Trade Deficit

*UK, Germany, France, Italy

EXPORTS DRIVEN EXPORTS DRIVEN BY SUPPLY BY SUPPLY FACTORSFACTORS


125119123106105106125

128 172

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008(f)

Cumulative to September Annual ForecastF$M

SUGAR EXPORTS


237

165

231234

185

215224

209226225

25%25%

-29%-29%


38%

40 39

31

4245

56

62

4843

38

3432

26 2730

32

25

3545

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(f) 2009(f)

Annual Cumulative to September Forecast

TIMBER EXPORTS$M


10%10%


18%18%

29%

93

78 79 81 83

101

117123

98

86

977574

65595959

7169

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(f) 2009(f)

Annual Cumulative to September Forecast$M

FISH EXPORTS


5%5%


15%15%

29%

41

27

3

43

59

89

77

68

85

70

12

34

5461

49 52

66

43

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(f) 2009(f)

Annual Cumulative to September Forecast$M

GOLD EXPORTS


54%54%


926%926%

300%300%

EXPORTS DRIVEN EXPORTS DRIVEN BY DEMAND BY DEMAND

FACTORSFACTORS


387448

555

639

718 733 742683

754792

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006(e) 2007(e) 2008(f) 2009(f)

TOURISM EARNINGS


$M


10%10%5%5%

10

2529

4652

68

87

105

122

135

8177

6356

3935

22228

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(f) 2009(f)

Annual

Cumulative to September

Forecast

$M

MINERAL WATER EXPORTS


10%10%


16%16%

5%

377

344

252270

252

142

109 110 111 111

838080

109

188181179

262281

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

280

320

360

400

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(f) 2009(f)

Annual

Cumulative to September

Forecast

$M

TEXTILES, CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR* EXPORTS

Reserve Bank of Fiji Source: FIBOS & Macroeconomic Committee

*Includes Garments, Textiles and Footwear

4%4%

1%1%

COMMERCIAL BANKS’ PRIVATE SECTOR LENDING

2,4002,4202,4402,4602,4802,5002,5202,5402,5602,5802,6002,6202,6402,6602,6802,7002,720

N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Value Annual Percent Change Credit Ceiling ($2,426m)

9.0%

$M %

2006 2007 2008

presentation to the fiji australia business council

Documents

total commodity exports

mmajor exports

fibosmajor exports

total commodity imports

total imports

sugar exports unaffected

fijis commodity export

flat australia