presentazione di powerpoint report on the electricity... · 6 energy demand mix demand breakdown...

January 2020

January 2020

2January 2020 Monthly Report on the Electricity System

3

page 12

page 15

page 23

page 5

This month, we present a selection of ARERA resolutions

relevant for dispatching and transmission activities.

January 2020

January 2020 Monthly Report on the Electricity System

The January total for withdrawal programmes on the DAM

was approximately €1.3 billion, up 16% compared to the

previous month and down 30% compared to January 2019.

In January, the spread between bid-up and bid-down prices

on the DSM was €109.8/MWh, down 21% compared to the

previous month and up 8% compared to January 2019. Total

volumes decreased compared to the previous month (-18%).

The spread between bid-up and bid-down prices on the

Balancing Market was €130.7/MWh, down compared to the

previous month (€162.4/MWh; -20%) and compared to

January 2019 (€92.5/MWh; +41%). Total volumes decreased

compared to the previous month (-2%).

In January 2020, 58% of the electricity demand was met via

production from Non-Renewable Energy Sources, 30% via

Renewable Energy Sources and the remainder via foreign

exchange.

In terms of monthly production from Renewable Energy

Sources, January saw an increase in hydroelectric production

(+21.9%) and photovoltaic production (+18.1%) and a

decrease in wind production (-26.3%) and geothermal

production (-1.4%) compared to the previous year.

In January 2020, electricity demand was 27,460GWh, a

decrease compared to the same month of the previous year

(-4.0%). In particular, a drop in thermoelectric production

(-9.9%) and wind production (-26.3%), as well as an increase

in hydroelectric production (+21.9%), compared to the same

month of the previous year. In 2020, cumulative demand

(27,460GWh) fell (-4.0%) compared to 2019. The change in

the value adjusted for seasonal, calendar and temperature

effects, whilst still negative, is more contained (-2.9%). The

short-term data, adjusted for calendar and temperature

effects, after decreases for a course of five months, shows a

slight increase: +0.4% compared to December 2019.

Considering this result, the general trend is stable.

4

January 2020


5

Monthly Summary and Short-Term Analysis


Demand breakdown – coverage by sources

Source: Terna

Demand – seasonality adjusted

Source: Terna

(1) Electricity Demand = Production + Foreign Balance - Pumping Consumption

(2) Pumping production is calculated assuming theoretical efficiency during the pumping phase

(3) RES Production = Hydro - Pumping production + Biomass + Geothermal + Wind + Photovoltaic

In January 2020, electricity demand was 27,460GWh, a decrease compared to the same

month of the previous year (-4.0%). In particular, a drop in thermoelectric production

(-9.9%) and wind production (-26.3%), as well as an increase in hydroelectric production

(+21.9%), compared to the same month of the previous year. In 2020, cumulative demand

(27,460GWh) fell (-4.0%) compared to 2019.

In January 2020, an

increase was recorded in

hydroelectric production

(+21.9%) and photovoltaic

production (+18.1%) with a

decrease in thermoelectric

production (-9.9%) and

geothermal production (-

1.4%) compared to the

previous year.

In 2020, a +40.9% increase

in exports was recorded

compared to the previous

year. In 2020, total net

production was down

significantly by -6.6%

The value, adjusted for

seasonal, calendar and

temperature effects,

shows a negative

change of -0.9%.

The January 20/19 variation in electricity demand (-4%) is due to one less working day and

an average temperature 1.7°C higher than the relative month last year and 0.3°C higher than

the average temperature in December for the last ten years. The change in the value

adjusted for seasonal, calendar and temperature effects, whilst still negative, is more

contained (-2.9%). The short-term data, adjusted for calendar and temperature effects, after

decreases for a course of five months, shows a slight increase: +0.4% compared to

December 2019. Considering this result, the general trend is stable.

6

Energy Demand Mix

Demand breakdown – coverage by sources

Source: Terna

Trend of 2020 energy demand mix compared to 2019

Source: Terna


In January 2020, 58% of electricity demand was met via production from Non-Renewable

Energy Sources, 30% via Renewable Energy Sources and the remainder via foreign

exchange.

In 2020, electricity demand was 27,460GWh, 58% of which was met via production from

Non-Renewable Energy Sources, 30% from Renewable Energy Sources and the

remainder via foreign exchange.

In 2020, the demand for

electricity from the grid saw

a decrease of -4.0%

compared to 2019.

In 2020, production from

Non-Renewable Energy

Sources recorded a

percentage decrease

of -10.7% compared to 2019.

In January, electricity

demand on the grid saw a

reduction (-4.0%) compared

to the same period of 2019.

7

Details of Renewable Energy Sources

RES Production - Breakdown

Source: Terna

Trend of 2020 RES net production compared to 2019

Source: Terna


In terms of monthly production from Renewable Energy Sources, January saw an increase

in hydroelectric production (+21.9%) and photovoltaic production (+18.1%) and a decrease

in wind production (-26.3%) and geothermal production (-1.4%) compared to the previous

year.

In January 2019, the

detailed breakdown of

production from

renewable energy sources

recorded a M-o-M

percentage reduction

(-13.7%).

In January production

from renewable energy

sources increased


year (+3.2%).

In 2020, 34.2% of net

national production was

from Renewable Energy

Sources, for a value of

8.3TWh.

8

Historical Energy Balance Sheets

2020 Historical Monthly Energy Balance Sheet

Source: Terna

2019 Historical Monthly Energy Balance Sheet

Source: Terna

(1) Electricity Demand = Production + Foreign Balance - Pumping Consumption

(2) Pumping production is calculated assuming theoretical efficiency during the pumping phase

(3) RES Production = Hydro - Pumping production + Biomass + Geothermal + Wind + Photovoltaic


In 2020, net total production (24,315GWh) met 89% of national electricity demand

(27,460GWh).

In January, net total

production decreased

(-6.6%) compared to 2019.

In 2020, the month with

the highest demand for

electricity was January,

with 27,460GWh.

In 2019, the month with

the highest demand for

electricity was July, with

31,210GWh.

The developments in the monthly balance sheet for 2019 are provided below.

Demand by Operational Area

Demand by Operational Area

Source: Terna

9

Source: Terna

Demand by Operational Area – Map Chart

[GWh]

The regions are combined in clusters

on the basis of production and

consumption:

• TURIN: Piedmont - Liguria -

Valle d’Aosta

• MILAN: Lombardy (*)

• VENICE: Friuli Venezia Giulia -

Greater Venice - Trentino Alto

Adige

• FLORENCE: Emilia Romagna

(*) - Tuscany

• ROME: Lazio - Umbria -

Abruzzo - Molise - Marche

• NAPLES: Campania - Apulia -

Basilica ta - Calabria

• PALERMO: Sicily

• CAGLIARI: Sardinia

(*) In these two regions, the geographical borders do not correspond to the electrical borders. Lombardy includes production

plants that are part of the geographical administrative territory of Emilia Romagna.


In January 2020, there was a decrease in demand in the Northern zone (TO-MI-VE), in the

Centre (RM-FI), in the Southern zone (NA) and on the Islands (PA-CA) compared to the

same period of the previous year.

In 2020, the Y-o-Y

percentage change in

demand is -3.0% in the

Northern zone, -4.0% in

the Centre, -7.6% in the

South and -3.1% for the

Islands.

Source: Terna

10

Peak Demand

Peak Demand

Source: Terna


In January 2020, Peak Demand was recorded on Wednesday 22 January between 11:00

and 12:00 and was 51,554MW (-3.7% Y-o-Y). The hourly demand diagram of the peak day

is presented below.

At its peak, production from

renewable sources

contributed to covering 32%

of demand, with thermal

production covering 61%

and the remainder covered

by net foreign exchange.

Coverage at Peak Demand - 22 January 2019, 11:00 - 12:00

Maximum peak

At peak, the contribution

of thermal production was

31,831 MW.

11

Net Foreign Exchange

Net Foreign Exchange on the Northern border

Source: Terna

Balance of Physical Exchanges – Annual Cumulative Figure

Balance of physical electricity exchanges: map

Source: Terna


The balance of physical electricity exchanges mainly shows the energy flows among the

various areas identified in the Italian electricity system.

The 380 kV connection between Sicily and the Mainland ensures secure management of the

electricity system in Sicily and Calabria.

In 2020, a net exchange

was recorded from the

Northern zone to Emilia

Romagna and Tuscany of

approximately 1.3TWh.

The Continent recorded a

net exchange towards

Sicily of 0.3TWh.

In January, there was low saturation of the planned figure for NTC (Net Transfer Capacity)

calculated in D-2 compared to the exchange programmes on the Northern border.

In January 2020, there

were Imports of 4.064GWh

and Exports of 748GWh.

Demand [TWh]

Exchanges between nations [TWh]

12

[MW]

Pinst≤1500

1500 < Pinst ≤ 2500

2500< Pinst≤ 3500

3500< Pinst≤ 4500

Pinst> 4500

[MW]

Pinst≤ 150

150< Pinst≤ 1000

1000< Pinst≤ 2000

2000< Pinst≤ 3000

Pinst> 3000


Source: Terna

Source: Terna

Photovoltaic Production and Capacity

Wind Production and Capacity

Production and Installed Capacity

The energy produced by photovoltaic sources in January 2020 came out at 1.263GWh, up

compared to the previous month by 340GWh. The annual cumulative figure increased

compared to the previous year (+18.1%).

Production from

photovoltaic sources up

+36.8% compared to the

previous month.

The energy produced by wind power in January 2020 was 1.711GWh, down compared to

the previous month by 746GWh. The annual cumulative figure fell compared to the previous

year (-26.3%).

Production from wind

sources was down


month by -30.4%.

13

[MW]

Pinst ≤1000

1000< Pinst≤ 2000

2000< Pinst≤3000

Pinst> 3000

Source: Terna

Source: Terna

Hydroelectric Production and Capacity

Hydroelectric Producibility and Reservoir Percentage


Energy produced by hydroelectric sources (e.g. reservoirs, storage and run-of-river) in

January 2020 was 3.431GWh, down compared to the previous month by 1.027GWh. The

annual cumulative figure increased (+21.9%) compared to the previous year.

Production from

hydroelectric sources

down -23.4% compared to

the previous month.

In January, hydroelectric producibility fell compared to the previous month.

In January 2020,

considering Italy as a

whole, the current

reservoir percentage

compared to the

maximum reservoir

capacity was +42.4%, an

increase compared to

January 2019.

14

[MW]

Pinst = 0

0 < Pinst ≤ 500

500 < Pinst≤ 1000

[MW]

Pinst≤ 5000

5000< Pinst≤ 10000

10000< Pinst≤ 15000

15000< Pinst≤ 20000

Pinst> 20000

Source: Terna

Source: Terna

Geothermal Production and Capacity

Thermal Production and Capacity

The energy produced by geothermal sources in January 2020 came out at 489GWh, up

compared to the previous month by 28GWh. The annual cumulative figure is down

(-1.4%) compared to the previous year.


Thermal production

increased (+6.1%)


month.

The energy produced by thermal sources in January 2020 came out at 17.421GWh, up

compared to the previous month by 3.240GWh. The annual cumulative figure was down

(-9.9%) compared to the previous year.

Thermal production was

up (+22.8%) compared to

the previous month.

15

[€/MWh]

Day-Ahead Market


Day Ahead Market – amounts and volumes

Source: Terna calculation on GME data


Spread compared to the PUN

[€ Bn] [GWh]

The January total for withdrawal programmes on the DAM was approximately €1.3 billion,

up 16% compared to the previous month and down 30% compared to January 2019.

The increase compared to December is due to growth in both average PUN and demand,

while the decrease over the previous year is due to a drop in average PUN from

€67.7/MWh in January 2019 to €47.5/MWh in January 2020.

Total amount in January

2020 down by 30%

compared to January 2019

In January, the zonal prices were predominantly in line with the PUN, with the exception of

the Sicily zone, which recorded a spread of +€11.3/MWh.

Compared to January 2019, the prices of the Sicily zone recorded an average decrease of

€19.6/MWh, while for the other zones there was an average reduction of €18.6/MWh.

January 2020 zonal prices

in line with the PUN for all

zones except Sicily

16

Day Ahead Market – PUN and zonal prices [€/MWh]


Price spread with foreign exchanges and day ahead programmes

Source: Terna calculation

€/MWh PUN North Centre-North Centre-South South Sicily Sardinia

Average 47.5 45.9 46.5 48.3 48.2 58.8 48.3

Y-o-Y -20.2 -21.7 -21.1 -17.3 -15.6 -19.6 -17.2

∆ vs PUN - -1.6 -1 0.8 0.7 11.3 0.8

∆ vs PUN 2019 - 0 -0.1 -2.1 -3.9 10.7 -2.2

Peak 55.2 53.7 54.7 55.3 55 69.1 55.3

Off Peak 43.5 41.9 42.2 44.7 44.7 53.5 44.7

∆ Peak vs Off Peak 11.7 11.8 12.5 10.6 10.3 15.6 10.6

Minimum 27 27 27 27 27 27 27

Maximum 77.9 75.1 92.7 92.7 92.7 123.5 92.7

*


In January, the spread between the peak and off-peak prices was € 15.6/MWh for the

Sicily zone and € 11.2/MWh on average for the remaining zones.

In December, the spread between the peak and off-peak prices was € 18.3/MWh for

the Sicily zone and € 14.5/MWh on average for the remaining zones.

In January, an increase in the price spread compared to the previous month was recorded

on all borders except for that with Greece.

Imports totalled 4.5 TWh, with France and Switzerland accounting for 43% and 51% of

the total respectively. Total exports were 1 TWh, with Greece accounting for 34% and

Slovenia 31%.

Net imports on the Northern

border of 4 TWh

Net exports on other borders

of 0.5 TWh

Peak-off peak spread

down compared to the

previous month across all

zones

-2.000

-1.000

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

France Austria Slovenia Switzerland Greece Montenegro

[GWh][€/MWh]

DAM programme (RH) Price spread (LH)

*No spread is represented for Montenegro because there is no power exchange.

17

[€/MWh] [GWh]

[€/MWh] [GWh]

Ex-ante Ancillary Services Market

Ex-ante Ancillary Services - prices and volumes

Source: Terna

Source: Terna

Ex-ante Ancillary Services - prices and volumes by market zone


In January, the spread between average bid-up and bid-down prices was € 109.8/MWh,

down 21% compared to the previous month and up 8% compared to January 2019.

The total volumes fell compared to the previous month (-18%), in particular upward volumes

decreased by 12% and downward volumes decreased by 27%. The upward volumes

increased by 2%, while the downwards volumes rose by 56% compared to the same month

of the previous year.

Average bid-up price in

January 2020 of

€132.3/MWh

Average bid-down price in

January 2020 of

€22.5/MWh

The market zone featuring the highest spread (€245.2/MWh) is the Centre-South, as in the

previous month. This spread recorded a 11% decrease compared to the previous month,

due to a reduction in the average bid-up price of 10% (from €304.7/MWh in December to

€274/MWh in January) and to a reduction in the average bid-down price of 1% (from

€29/MWh in December to €28.8/MWh in January).

Centre-South: zone with

the highest price spread

North: zone with the most

volumes moved

18

[€/MWh] [GWh]

[€/MWh] [GWh]

Balancing Market

Source: Terna

Source: Terna

Balancing market – prices and volumes

Balancing market – prices and volumes by market zone


In January, the spread between bid-up and bid-down prices was €130.7/MWh, down

compared to the previous month (€162.4/MWh; -20%) and up compared to January 2019

(€92.5/MWh; +41%).

The total volumes fell compared to the previous month (-2%), in particular upward volumes

decreased by 9% and downward volumes remained stable. Compared to January 2019,

upward volumes increased by 1% and downward volumes fell by 30%.

Average bid-up price in

January 2020 of

€153.7/MWh

Average bid-down price in

January 2020 of

€23.0/MWh

Centre-South: zone

featuring the highest price

spread

North: zone with the most

volumes moved

The market zone featuring the highest spread (€296.45/MWh) was the Centre-South,

similar to the previous month (spread of €295.38/MWh).

In January, the North zone was confirmed as the area with the highest volumes (849 GWh

down, 110 GWh up).

The price spread decreased across all zones, with the exception of the Centre-South. The

North was the zone with the highest decrease compared to the previous month (-51.4

€/MWh; -40.6%)

19

Spot Commodities Market

Spot electricity prices

Source: Terna calculation on GME and EPEX data


In January 2020, the prices of Brent stood at around $66.3/bbl and was stable compared to the $65.9/bbl of

December 2019 (+0.6%).

Coal prices (AP12) stood at around $53/t, down compared to December prices (-1.8%).

Gas prices in Europe decreased to €11.9/MWh in January (-9% compared to the previous month); the PSV also

recorded a decrease to €12.9/MWh (-12.7%).

Electricity prices in Italy rose in January compared to the previous month, with a monthly average of €45.8/MWh

(+6.4%). The French stock exchange also rose, with the price of electricity at €39.5 (+9%); the same is true for

the German stock exchange, with €38.9/MWh (+22.5%) compared to December.

20

Source: Terna calculation on Bloomberg data



Gas & Oil spot prices

Coal & Carbon spot prices

Clean Dark & Spark spreads Italy


Monthly average change

PSV-TTF = +09/MWh


API2-API4 = -$26.7/tn

Clean spark spread PSV

monthly average = €11.1/MWh

Clean dark spread API2


21

Forward Commodities Market

Year+1 Forward electricity prices



In January, the forward prices of Brent stood at around $61.2/bbl, up compared to the $60.2/bbl of December

(+1.6%).

The average forward prices of coal (API2) were down compared to December, at around $60.5/t (-5%).

The average forward prices of gas in Italy (PSV) decreased between January and the previous month, to

settle at around €16.7/MWh (-1.6%); forward prices of gas in Europe (TTF) also decreased and stood at

€14.5/MWh (-1.6%).

The average forward prices of electricity in Italy stood at around €54.4/MWh, in line with the previous month

(+0%). There was also a downward trend in the French stock exchange, where the price stands at around

€43.5/MWh (-5.6%); such is the case in Germany, where the price stands at around €40.4/MWh (-5.8%).

22




Year+1 Forward Gas & Oil prices

Year +1 Forward Coal & Carbon prices

Year+1 Forward Dark & Spark Spreads Italy



PSV-TTF = +€2.2/MWh


API2-API4 = -$7.6/tn

Clean spark spread PSV


Clean dark spread API2


23January 2020 Monthly Report on the Electricity System

Below is a selection of ARERA measures of major interest for dispatching and

transmission activities in January 2020. This selection is not exhaustive with respect to

the regulatory framework.

Approval of the request for deviation to meet the minimum level of capacity

(70% rule) drafted by Terna S.p.A. with reference to the GRIT Region

For the year 2020, the Authority approved the deviation request submitted by Terna

with reference to the obligation to make at least 70% capacity available for er energy

exchanges between areas (in accordance with EU Regulation 2019/943 on the internal

electricity market) for the Greece-Italy Capacity Calculation Region (CCR GRIT). The

CCR GRIT refers to the border between the Southern Zone of Italy and Greece and

the borders between the supply areas within the Italian territory; the deviation

approved by the Authority only concerns the borders between the areas within the

Italian territory.

Approval of rules for the explicit allocation of transport capacity for long-term,

daily and intra-day timescales for those areas where rules harmonised at a

European level do not apply

The Authority approved the amendments to the rules for the explicit allocation of

transport capacity rights at borders and for products that do not fall within the scope of

European Regulations 2015/1222 (Capacity Allocation and Congestion Management,

CACM) and 2016/1719 (Forward Capacity Allocation, FCA). In particular, this means:

▪ capacity allocation rules on a daily basis for the borders with Switzerland and

Greece;

▪ capacity allocation rules on an intra-day basis for the borders with France and

Austria;

▪ long-term capacity allocation rules for the border with Switzerland,

Resolution 20/2020/R/eel

Resolution 21/2020/R/eel

https://www.arera.it/it/docs/20/020-20.htm

https://www.arera.it/it/docs/20/021-20.htm

24

API2 – CIF ARA: the reference index for the coal price (with PCI of 6, 000 kcal/kg) imported from north-west

Europe. It is determined on the basis of an assessment on the CIF (Cost, Insurance and Freight) prices of coal

contracts, with delivery to the ports of Amsterdam – Rotterdam – Antwerp (ARA).

API4 – FOB Richard Bay: the reference index for the coal price (with PCI of 6,000 kcal/kg) exported from

Richards Bay in South Africa. It is calculated on the basis of an assessment on the FOB (Free On Board) prices

of contracts excluding transport starting from the port of Richards Bay.

Territorial Areas: these consist of one or more adjacent regions and are aggregated as indicated:TURIN: Piedmont - Liguria - Valle d’AostaMILAN: Lombardy (*);VENICE: Friuli Venezia Giulia - Veneto - Trentino Alto AdigeFLORENCE: Emilia Romagna (*) - Tuscany;ROME: Lazio - Umbria - Abruzzo - Molise - MarcheNAPLES: Campania - Apulia - Basilicata - Calabria;PALERMO: SicilyCAGLIARI: Sardinia

(*) In these two regions, the geographical borders do not correspond to the electrical borders. Lombardy

includes production plants that are part of the geographical administrative territory of Emilia Romagna.

The data related to the reservoirs table of tanks are aggregated by ZONE as indicated:NORTH - includes the Territorial Areas TURIN, MILAN and VENICE;CENTRE and SOUTH – includes the Territorial Areas FLORENCE, ROME and NAPLES;ISLANDS – includes the Territorial Areas PALERMO and CAGLIARI;

Brent: the oil price as global reference for the crude oil market. Brent Crude is the result of a mixture deriving

from the union of different types of oil extracted from the North Sea.

Clean Dark Spread: the difference between the price of electricity and the cost of the fuel of a coal power

station and the cost of the CO2 emission quotas.

Clean Spark Spread: the difference between the price of electricity and the cost of the fuel of a gas power

station and the cost of the CO2 emission quotas.

Dirty Dark Spread: the difference between the price of electricity and the cost of the fuel of a coal power

station.

Dirty Spark Spread: the difference between the price of electricity and the cost of the fuel of a gas power

station.

Day-Ahead Market (DAM): the trading venue of offers to buy and sell electricity for each relevant period of the

day after that of trading.

Balancing Market (MB): the set of activities performed by the Operator for selecting the offers presented on

the Dispatching Services Market to resolve the congestions and establish secondary and tertiary reserve power

margins, carried out on the same day as that to which the offers refer.

Dispatching Services Market (MSD): the trading venue of the resources for the dispatching service.

Dispatching Services Market - planning stage (Ex-ante Ancillary Services Market): the set of activities

performed by the Operator for selecting the offers presented on the Dispatching Services Market to resolve the

congestions and establish secondary and tertiary reserve power margins, carried out in advance with respect to

real time.

Key


25

M-o-M - Month on Month: percentage change of the difference between the reference month and the previous

month

NET TRANSFER CAPACITY - NTC: the maximum transfer capacity of the grid for interconnection with other

countries. NTC D-2 indicates the same capacity defined in day D-2.

Peak hours: these, according to the agreement with the electricity market operator (Gestore del Mercato

Elettrico - GME), are the hours between 8:00 and 20:00 of working days only. Off-peak hours are all hours that

are outside of peak hours.

CO2 Price: determined by the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), a system for the trading

of greenhouse gas emission quotas in Europe aimed at reducing emissions.

Single National Price - PUN: the Single National Price calculated as a result of the Day-Ahead Market (DAM).

DAM Zonal Price: the balanced price of each zone calculated as a result of the Day-Ahead Market (DAM).

PSV - Punto Scambio Virtuale: the price at the virtual exchange point for the buying and selling of natural gas

in Italy.

TTF - Title Transfer Facility: the price at the virtual exchange point for the buying and selling of natural gas in

the Netherlands.

Y-o-Y – Year on Year: percentage change of the difference between the period of the current year and the

same period of the previous year


26

Disclaimer

1. The monthly electricity reports for 2018 are definitive, while those for 2019 are provisional.

2. More specifically, the monthly electricity reports for 2019 – prepared at the end of each month using the

operating archives – are subject to further and precise verification or recalculation in the following months

based on additional information. This operation to refine the monthly figures translates, for the reporting

data, into a higher degree of precision compared to the sum of the data processed in the single Monthly

Reports published on the website www.terna.it.


http://www.terna.it/en

presentazione di powerpoint report on the electricity... · 6 energy demand mix demand breakdown...

Documents