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Presented by:

Chris Noble, Ron Mahabir, Jared Silk & Drake Daughdrill

GGS 684—Select Topics in Geospatial Intelligence

SOUTH AMERICA

2025

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Overview

South America 390 million population 19 countries

Major exports:

▪ petroleum, coffee, copper, bauxite, fish meal, and oilseed

Key issues: Demographics Forestry Energy Crime, corruption,

and narcotics

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Demographics

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Demographics

Brazil

Argentina

Uruguay

Chile Paraguay

Bolivia

Colombia

Venezuela

Ecuador

Peru

Guyana

Suriname FrenchGuiana

White

Mestizo

Mulla to

Indian

Black

Asian

O ther

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0

20

40

60

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

0

10

30

20

40

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Demographics

Key themes Public health (↑) Age (↑) Economics (↓) Education (↑)

Key countries Brazil (↑) Argentina (↑)

Key uncertainties

Infant mortality rate (deaths/1,000 births)

Population below poverty (percent)

Brazil

Brazil

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Forestry

Source: PLU , UndatedSource:Interweb, Undated Source: David, 2010

Key Certainties Key Uncertainties

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Distribution of World Forests

Source: Britannica 2000

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Driving Forces: 2025…

Main factors

Influenced by the pace of economic diversification and changes in land dependence.

Increasing urbanization

Increase in population

Auxiliary

Continuing global demand for wood and wood products.

Carbon sequestration

Biodiversity

Source: OWU 2010Source: Sohngen et. al. 2008

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GeoInt

Satellite imagery Datasets indicating development Distribution and number of:

Forest fires Net GDP Direct, indirect, and induced employment Forest type, age Reforestation areas Change statistics

Conservation policies and indicators of change

Investments

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Energy

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Energy Resources in South America Oil (O)

Venezuela - 2.5 million bbl/day (2.2)

Ecuador - 0.5 million bbl/day (0.3)

Brazil - 2.6 million bbl/day (0.6)

Natural Gas (G)

Bolivia – top natural gas exporter in South America (1% of world exports)

Ethanol (E) Brazil - 2nd largest producer of

ethanol in the world at 36% (US at 53%)Source: The World Factbook 2011

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Brazil: The Next Big Oil Exporter?

Potential of huge oil reserves off shore

How much?

▪ Tupi: 10’s of billions of barrels of oil

▪ Brazil: Top 10 oil reserves in the world

▪ Increase of 40%

How long to access these reserves?

▪ Located in deep water and could take years to extract

Could there be more?

▪ Half of all of Brazil’s oil reserves have been discovered in the past 10 years

Source: Oil & Shale Gas Discovery News

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Potential Outcomes

Experiences a more rapid economic growth

Accelerates its rise as a major world player

Increases its importance in US relations

Offset our need on middle east oil

Leads to increase of crime and corruption

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Source (edited L to R): World News Review, Thomas Fortenberry blog, las tribus urbanas blog

Drugs, insurgency & crime

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Major drug routes in Lat. Am.

Source: Congressional Research Service, 2011

Trafficking via W. Africa to Europe increasing Via Mexico & Caribbean to

U.S. trend slightly increases

Cartels using more sophisticated smuggling means used jets mini-subs

Criminal & terrorist ties in U.S., Lat. Am. & N. Africa increasing

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Coca production trending up

Source: stopthedrugwar.com, 2010

Counter drug ops in Columbia provide opportunity to others

Peru & Bolivia supply trending regional to international (U.S. & N. Africa) Peru & Bolivia trend toward

Columbian level

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Geoint

Correlation of supply chains to demand curves Money Drugs Weapons Persons of interest

Datasets indicating: Violence (criminal & terrorist) Currency abnormalities (xfers, banking actions, seizures)

Distribution and number of: Arrests vs. Prosecutions (cartels, corrupt officials) Seizures (drugs, money, weapons) Coca production operations Violent crimes (drug or terrorist related)

Effects of narco “crack down” policies (U.S. & partners)

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References

BBC News: “Brazil Announces New Oil Reserves”. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7086264.stm (Last updated on November 9, 2007) (Last accessed March 3, 2011)

Boston University (Undated) Pardee Center Task Force: Latin America 2060. Available online at: http://www.bu.edu/pardee/research/latin-america-2060/. (Last accessed on February 26, 2010)

Britannica (2000) Forests: Distribution of the World’s Forest. Available online at: http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/media/56196/Interactive-map-showing-the-geographic-distribution-of-the-worlds-forests (Last accessed on February 24, 2010)

Central Intelligence Agency: “The World Factbook 2011”. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html (Last accessed March 2, 2011)

Congressional Research Service. “Latin American and the Caribbean: Illicit Drug Trafficking and U.S. Counterdrug Programs”. Drug routes map (image). Page 3. January 25, 2011. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41215.pdf. (Last accessed February 25, 2011)

Council on Foreign Relations: “Energy Bottlenecks in South America”. http://www.cfr.org/energy/energy-bottlenecks-south-america/p16037 (Last accessed March 3, 2011)

David, G. (2010) Deforestation. Available online at: http://www.dangerouscreation.com/2010/10/man-the-destroyer/deforestation/ (Last accessed on February 27, 2010)\

Las tribus urbanas blog. “The latin kings”. 3 Latin Kings (image). February 3, 2010. http://www.worldnewsreviews.com/world-news/europe/spanish-authorities-confiscate-the-largest-and-most-sophisticated-cocaine-lab.html. (Last accessed February 23, 2011)

FAO (2009) State of the World Forests 2009. Food and Agriculture Organization, United Nations, Italy, Rome.

Interweb (Undated). Walpapers. Available online at: http://www.interweb.in/pc-wallpapers/18884-nature-wallpaper-2.html (Last accessed on February 27, 2010)

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References

NIC (2008) Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World. National Intelligence Council, USA, Washington, D.C.

Michael Reid. The Economist. “So near and yet so far”. GDP per PPP (map). September 9, 2010. http://www.economist.com/node/16964114?Story_ID=16964114&fsrc=nlw|hig|09-09-2010|editors_highlights. (last accessed February 25, 2011)

Oil & Shale Gas Discovery News: Brazil Tupi Oil Field Information. (Image) http://oilshalegas.com/braziltupioil.html

OWU (2010) Breakfast of Biodiversity, Available online at: http://environmentalgeography.wordpress.com/2010/03/page/3/ (Last updated on March 24, 2010)

Phillip Smith. stopthedrugwar.com. “Latin America: Peru Ousts Colombia as World's Largest Coca Producer, UNODC Says”. Coca production (graph). June 24, 2010. http://stopthedrugwar.org/chronicle/2010/jun/25/latin_america_peru_ousts_colombi. (last accessed February 27, 2011)

PLU (Undated) Deforestation. Pacific Lutheran University, Available online at: http://www.plu.edu/~hoodbs/deforestation/home.html (Last accessed on February 27, 2010)

Sohngen, B., Beach, B. and Andrasko, K. (2008) Avoided Deforestation as a Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Tool: Economic Issues. Journal of Environmental Quality, 37(4), pgs 1368:1375

Thomas Fortenberry blog. “Calm the FARC Down”. Female FARC soldier (image). March 10, 2008. http://thomasfortenberry.net/?p=2023. (last accessed February 22, 2011)

Vivirlatino blog. “FARC Says Hostage Release Must Have International Witnesses”. FARC flag (image). January 8, 2009 http://vivirlatino.com/2009/01/08/farc-says-hostage-release-must-have-international-witnesses.php. (Last accessed February 23, 2011)

World News Reviews. “Spanish Authorities Confiscate The ‘Largest and Most Sophisticated’ Cocaine Lab”. Packaged cocaine seizure (image). http://www.worldnewsreviews.com/world-news/europe/spanish-authorities-confiscate-the-largest-and-most-sophisticated-cocaine-lab.html. No date. (Last accessed February 27, 2011)