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ECONOMICS OF MINING

MINNESOTA MINERALS EDUCATION WORKSHOP

Hibbing Community College, Hibbing MinnesotaJune 18, 2013

presented by Henry (Rick) Sandri, Ph.D., Mineral Economics

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Rick Sandri – Background

Education• BS – Foreign Service, Georgetown University• MS – Applied Economics, American University• PhD – Mineral Economics, Colorado School of Mines

Work Experience• The World Bank – Economic Analyst• American Iron & Steel Institute - Economist• Booz Allen & Hamilton – Economic Consultant• Behre Dolbear & Company – Economic Consultant• K & M Engineering & Consulting – Financial Consultant• Burlington Northern Inc. – Economist / Planner• Inco Limited – Planner – Business Development• Select Resources – President• Duluth Metals Ltd. – President & CEO• Vermillion Gold - President

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Some General Definitions:

• Economics – Economics is the social science that analyzes the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services as needed for mankind/ the efficient allocation of scarce resources.

• Mineral Economics – Mineral Economics is the study of the business and economic aspects of natural resource extraction and use.

• Natural Resources – Resources that occur naturally within environments that exist relatively undisturbed by mankind.

• Renewable Natural Resources – Resources that can be replenished naturally, or with limited assistance, i.e. sunlight, air, wind, agricultural crops, timber, animals, etc.

• Non-Renewable Natural Resources – Resources that form extremely slowly and those that do not naturally form in the environment; i.e. minerals , metals, energy sources, etc.

• Ore – Any naturally occurring material that can be extracted at a profit, including all costs associated with environmental reclamation & restoration.

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Non-Renewable Mined Metals & Minerals

• Precious Metals – Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium

• Base Metals – Copper, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Nickel

• Ferrous Metals – Iron, Columbium, Molybdenum, Chromium

• Light Metals – Titanium, Aluminum, Silicon

• Industrial Minerals – Talc, Salt, Gypsum, Pumice, Quartz

• Fertilizer Minerals – Potash, Phosphate, Sulfur, Vermiculite,

• Gem Stones – Diamond, Ruby, Garnet, Sapphire

• Construction Materials – Limestone, Granite, Marble, Sandstone

• Energy Minerals & Materials – Coal, Peat, Oil Shale

• Radioactive Minerals & Materials – Uranium, Thorium, Radium

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Economics – The Study Of Choice

As an individual, for example, you face the problem of having limited resources with which to live, as a result, you must make certain choices with your time and money.

You'll probably spend part of your money on rent/ mortgage, energy, food and clothing. Then you might use some of the rest to purchase entertainment or a vacation. Some may go to education or savings.

Economists are interested in the choices you make, and inquire into why, for instance, you might choose to spend your money on a new DVD player instead of replacing your old TV.

They would want to know whether you would still buy a carton of cigarettes if prices increased by $2 per pack, $8 per pack, $20 per pack.

The underlying essence of economics is trying to understand how both individuals and nations behave in response to certain material constraints.

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Economics, including Mineral Economics,

is made up of two basic fields of study:

Micro Economics & Macro Economics

Micro Economics – The study of the economic behavior of individual units of an economy (such as a person, household, firm, or industry) and not of the aggregate economy.

Macro Economics – Study of the behavior of the whole (aggregate) economies or economic systems instead of the behavior of individuals, individual firms, or markets

Natural Resource Economics (including Mineral Economics) – The study of economics as it applies to the natural resource industry and environment, including Micro and Macro Economics.

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The Essence of Economics Supply, Demand & Price

Supply - A fundamental economic concept that describes the total amount of a specific good or service that is available to consumers. Aggregate supply is the supply from all suppliers.

Demand - An economic principle that describes a consumer's desire and willingness to pay a price for a specific good or service. Aggregate demand is the demand from all consumers.

Price - A value that will purchase a finite quantity, weight, or other measure of a good or service.

Price Equilibrium - The equilibrium price is the price where the goods and services supplied by the producer equals the goods and services demanded by the customers.

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The Law of Demand

The law of demand states that, if all other factors remain equal, the higher the price of a good, the less people will demand that good.

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Demand & PriceExample: Coffee Demand per Month

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The Law of Supply

The law of supply states that the higher the price of the good, the higher the quantity supplied to the market.

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Supply Example: Cumulative supply of copper from 10 individual mines

Supply Curve

$ per Pound

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Supply, Demand & Price Equilibrium

When supply & demand are equal the economy is said to be at equilibrium. At this point, the allocation of goods is most efficient because the amount of goods being supplied is exactly the amount of goods being demanded.

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Surpluses & Shortages

Surpluses occur when supply exceeds demand (no longer in equilibrium) and shortages occur when demand exceeds supply (no longer in equilibrium). Over time the market will adjust to equilibrium.

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Demand Curve Adjustment

A movement along the demand curve will occur when the price of the good changes and the quantity demanded changes in accordance to the original demand relationship. In other words, a movement occurs when a change in the quantity demanded is caused only by a change in price, and vice versa.

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Supply Curve Adjustment

A movement along the supply curve will occur when the price of the good changes and the quantity supplied changes in accordance to the original supply relationship. In other words, a movement occurs when a change in the quantity supplied is caused only by a change in price, and vice versa.

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A Change in Supply, Demand & Price

A new equilibrium will be established with a change in supply and demand. This may or may not result in a new equilibrium price.

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The Economics of Mining

This is the traditional view of the competition between Environmental Concerns, Social Needs, and Economic Desires, resulting in a Sustainable Target Area.

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The Economics of Mining

However, this is the newer view of the “nested” competition between Environmental Concerns, Social Needs, and Economic Desires, resulting in much larger Sustainable Target Area.

This is one of the major challenges in Natural Resource Economics.

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The Economics of Mining

Copper – As An Example

• Crustal abundance – 68 parts per million (0.0068%)

• First metal mined by humans – 8000 years ago • Used in the early development of civilizations

– the Copper Age (3500 – 2300 BC) – tools & weapons

– the Bronze Age (3300 – 1100 BC) – tools & weapons

• Malleable metal used in pipe, wire, sheet and strip

• Highly prized for its conductivity of electricity

• Used as a monetary instrument • Biofouling & germicide element, prevents growth of

biologicals

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The Economics of Mining – Copper

2012 Copper Uses (Demand)

33% - Construction

33% - Electronics

13% - Machinery

13% - Transport

8% - Consumer Goods

2012 World Copper Demand – 20,000,000 metric tonnes (44 billion pounds) of copper.

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Where is Copper Found?

Numerous countries, but most occurrences are small and uneconomic. Most active copper mines are clustered in geologic formations, such as the Chile-Peru-Ecuador-Colombia Porphyry Copper Belt.

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The Economics of Mining – Copper

2012 Copper Supplies (Sources)

2012 World Copper Supply – 17,000,000 metric tonnes (34.5 billion pounds) of copper from new mines and 3,000,000 metric tonnes (6.6 billion pounds ) from recycling.

27% - Chile8% - China6% - Peru6% - US5% - Australia4% - Russia3% - Zambia3% - Congo3% - Canada3% - Mexico19% - Other Coun-tries

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2% Copper – Medium –High Grade Mineralization

                                                                                                                                                                           

                   

2 out of 100 parts (2%) are copper, the other 98 parts (98%) are waste.

This is considered medium to high grade for copper .

Mineral Occurrence in the Earth’s Crust verses Mineable Grades

Aluminum 8.2% 49%

Iron 6.3% 25%

Titanium 0.6% 2%

Nickel 0.009% 1%

Copper 0.007% 0.3%

Lead 0.001% 0.1%

Platinum 0.00006% 0.001%

Gold 0.00003% 0.0008%

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Orebodies Are Not Perfect You Typically Cannot Mine 100%

The extraction of ore usually results in the extraction of significant waste rock as well. This waste must be handled, and in some cases treated.

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3:1 Waste to Ore Ratio                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

                                       

3 tonnes to the waste pile, 1 tonne to the plant for processing. This can alter the economics significantly. Higher grade is always preferred.

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Example Of A Open Pit Copper ModelWhim Creek, Australia

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Underground MiningA Possibility If The Grade Is High Enough

Sulphur Springs Deposit in Montana – a new discovery @ +2.5% Cu.

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Discovering & Opening A Copper Mine• Acquire Interesting Ground

• Discover Mineralization

• Explore with Sampling & Drilling

• Confirm Size and Grade

• Confirm Geologic Resource

• Test & Confirm Metallurgy

• Conceptualize Mine & Mill

• Preliminary Economic Assessment

• Detailed Mine & Mill Plan • Initiate Environmental Testing

• Social & Impact Analysis

• Prepare Pre-Feasibility Study

• Labor & Staffing Studies

• Prepare Feasibility Study

• Environmental Impact Statement

• Permit Application & Receipt

• Finance Project Development

• Design and Engineer Mine & Mill

• Build Facilities

• Open Mine & MillOn a 100 million metric tonne mine – 10 to 20 years and $500 million to $1 billion expended before the first pound of copper is produced.

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Copper Mine Project – Operations ExampleYear -2 -1 1 2 3 4 5

Production - Ore mt/y 0 0 500,000            1,000,000        1,000,000        1,000,000        1,000,000       Production - Waste mt/y 0 1,200,000        800,000            1,000,000        1,500,000        2,500,000        4,000,000       Production Salable Copper mt/y 0 0 10,000              20,000              20,000              20,000              20,000             

Mining - Ore $/mt $5.00 $0 $0 $2,500,000 $5,000,000 $5,000,000 $5,000,000 $5,000,000Mining - Waste  $/mt $4.00 $0 $4,800,000 $3,200,000 $4,000,000 $6,000,000 $10,000,000 $16,000,000Crush & Grind $/mt $10.00 $0 $0 $5,000,000 $10,000,000 $10,000,000 $10,000,000 $10,000,000Copper Concentration $/mt $6.00 $0 $0 $3,000,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000Copper Production $/mt $4.00 $0 $0 $2,000,000 $4,000,000 $4,000,000 $4,000,000 $4,000,000Sales $/mt $1.00 $0 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $20,000 $20,000 $20,000General & Admin $/mt $2.00 $0 $0 $1,000,000 $2,000,000 $2,000,000 $2,000,000 $2,000,000Total Costs $0 $4,800,000 $16,710,000 $31,020,000 $33,020,000 $37,020,000 $43,020,000

Copper Sales Price  $/mt $6,500 $0 $0 $65,000,000 $130,000,000 $130,000,000 $130,000,000 $130,000,000Gross Sales $0 $0 $48,290,000 $98,980,000 $96,980,000 $92,980,000 $86,980,000Royalty 3% $0 $0 $1,448,700 $2,969,400 $2,909,400 $2,789,400 $2,609,400Taxes 30% $0 $0 $14,487,000 $29,694,000 $29,094,000 $27,894,000 $26,094,000Net Profit $0 $0 $32,354,300 $66,316,600 $64,976,600 $62,296,600 $58,276,600

Construction Costs -$10,000,000 -$15,000,000 -$2,500,000Replacement Capital  -$250,000 -$2,500,000 -$2,500,000 -$2,500,000 -$2,500,000Mine Closure Costs -$5,000,000

Project Cash Flow -$10,000,000 -$19,800,000 $12,894,300 $32,796,600 $29,456,600 $22,776,600 $7,756,600Net Present Value @ 10% $41,761,042Net Present Value @ 0% $75,880,700Internal Rate of Return 54%

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The Chocolate Chip Cookie Mine

The following handout is a working example of project that you can bring back to your classrooms using chocolate chip cookies as mines.

The project involves the students to ‘acquire’ land assets (cookies), equipment (toothpicks & paperclips), and mine for ore (chocolate chips), while filling out an economic / financial sheet, similar to the one on slide 25. The handout has instruction for carrying out the exercise.

The example allows the students to conceptualize some of the complexity of mining and finance, while having fun extracting chocolate chips.

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Economic Of Mining

Question or Comments?

Thank You

This Session is followed by the

Mineral Economics Lightning Round

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round

Fun!Excitement

!Prizes!

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round1 A

Titanium -

Principally used in:

Aircraft

Paints / Plastics

Sporting Goods

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round1 B

Titanium -

Principally used in:

Aircraft

Paints / Plastics

Sporting Goods

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round2 A

Where is the world’s largest un-mined copper nickel deposit?

United States

Russia

China

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round2 B

Where is the world’s largest un-mined copper nickel deposit?

United States - Minnesota

Russia

China

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round3 A

Gold -

Largest Producer

South Africa

United States

China

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round3 B

Gold -

Largest Producer

South Africa

United States

China

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round4 A

Oil – What is its

Classification?

Animal

Mineral

Vegetable

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round4 B

Oil -

Classification

Animal

Mineral

Vegetable

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round5 A

What is a Picul?

Tin Weight

Steel Acid Bath

Copper Trading Derivative

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round5 B

What is a Picul?

Tin Weight

Steel Acid Bath

Copper Trading Derivative

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round6 A

What Two Metals Have Distinct Colors?

Aluminum & Nickel

Iron & Platinum

Gold & Copper

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round6 B

What Two Metals Have Distinct Colors?

Aluminum & Nickel

Iron & Platinum

Gold & Copper

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round7 A

What New Mineral/Metal Discoveries Are Significant For Minnesota?

Platinum, Titanium

Nickel, Cobalt

Copper, Gold

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round7 B

What New Mineral/Metal Discoveries Are Significant For Minnesota?

Platinum, Titanium

Nickel, Cobalt

Copper, Gold

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round8 A

Elemental Concentration in the Crust – Highest Metal Concentration

Boron

Iron

Silicon

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round8 B

Elemental Concentration in the Crust – Highest Metal

Boron

Iron

Silicon

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round9 A

Which metal/mineral is the largest produced in Minnesota?

Iron Ore

Building Stone

Sand & Gravel

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round9 B

Which metal/mineral is the largest produced in Minnesota?

Iron Ore

Building Stone

Sand & Gravel

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round10 A

What is the best metal for conducting electricity?

Bismuth

Copper

Silver

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round10 B

What is the best metal for conducting electricity?

Bismuth

Copper

Silver

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round11 A

Cobalt is named for what?

Blue Color

Discovery in Kobal, Germany

Gremlin Metal

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round11 B

Cobalt is named for what?

Blue Color

Discovery in Kobal, Germany

Gremlin Metal

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round12 A

What is the principle use of Garnets?

Grinding Media

Gem Stone

Counter Tops

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round12 B

What is the principle use of Garnets?

Grinding Media

Gem Stone

Counter Tops

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round13 A

Which metal/mineral liquid in its natural state?

Mercury

Nacholite

Molybdenum

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round13 B

Which metal/mineral liquid in its natural state?

Mercury

Nacholite

Molybdenum

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round14 A

What is man’s oldest mined metal?

Gold

Copper

Iron

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round14 B

What is man’s oldest mined metal?

Gold

Copper

Iron

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round15 A

What has the highest melting point?

Tungsten

Nickel

Chromium

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round15 B

What has the highest melting point?

Tungsten

Nickel

Chromium

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round16 A

What percent of world’s diamonds are used for gems?

5%

35%

20%

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round16 B

What percent of world’s diamonds are used for gems?

5%

35%

20%

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round17 A

What is (probably) the most important industrial mineral/metal?

Sulfur

Limestone

Iron Ore/Iron

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round17 B

What is (probably) the most important industrial mineral/metal?

Sulphur

Limestone

Iron Ore/Iron

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round18 A

What minerals/metals is Minnesota known for?

Granite, Iron Ore, Aggregate

Iron Ore, Copper, Gold

Frac Sands, Iron Ore, Peat

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round18 B

What minerals/metals is Minnesota known for?

Granite, Iron Ore, Aggregate

Iron Ore, Copper, Gold

Frac Sands, Iron Ore, Peat

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round19 A

Early prospectors in Minnesota explored for Gold, but what did they find?

Copper

Silver

Iron Ore

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round19 B

Early prospectors in Minnesota explored for Gold, but what did they find?

Copper

Silver

Iron Ore

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round20 A

What is (probably) the most dangerous chemical?

Sulfur Dioxide

Di-hydrogen Monoxide

Carbon Monoxide

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round20 B

What is (probably) the most dangerous chemical?

Sulphur Dioxide

Di-hydrogen Monoxide

Carbon Monoxide

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round

And The Winner Of

The Lightning Round Is?

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Mineral Economics

Lightning Round

All Of You!

Thank you Again