Wildland FiresCurrent Conditions, Future Projections and Implications for Land Management

Presented byRick Graw

Air Quality Program ManagerUSDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Region

Ecoregions

Areas with common natural features:• Land surface form •Climate•Disturbance type and frequency• Soils•Vegetation • Fauna and fish

Level III Ecoregions of the Pacific NW Reference: US EPA

Vegetation Departure from Natural Range of Variation

• Vegetation Departure from NRV ranges from 0 to 100%.

• SW Oregon, East Side of Cascades and NE Washington in need of the most restoration.

• Eastside forests are dominated by a need for disturbance.

• Westside forests by a need for succession.

Ref: DeMeo et al. Expanding our Understanding of Forest Structural Needs in the Pacific Northwest. 2018

Recent Trends in Summertime (JJA)Temperature and Precipitation

1985-2018Temperature Precipitation

Reference: http://www.climate.washington.edu/trends/

Fires and Seasonal Climate (OR and WA)

Energy Release Component (ERC)Definition: “a weather-climate hybrid index of daily fire energy intensity that considers the cumulative drying effect of weather in the previous days to weeks to estimate live and dead fuel moisture values”

Wildfires 1984 – 2016www.mtbs.gov

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Number of Fires in OR and WABased upon Karen Short's Database

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Acres Burned by Fire in OR and WABased upon Karen Short's database

Direct Effects of Fire

• Fuel Consumption• Smoke Production• Soil Heating• Carbon loss to

atmosphere

Indirect Effects of Fire

• soil erosion• delayed plant and animal mortality• changes in site productivity• plant regeneration, and succession • Carbon sequestration• Change in forest use: access, timber

supply, recreation, foraging, and local economies.

Looking into the Future

Predictions for Future Climate of the Pacific Northwest• International Panel on Climate Change

– 4th Assessment (Mote and Salathe, 2010)• Method:

• 20 Global Climate Models• 2 Emissions Scenario (business as usual &

best realistic decrease in GHGs)

• Note: GCM models subject to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) to evaluate and improve model performance.

IPCC 4th Assessment Results for PNW

Temperature:• Temp increase of 2.5 - 3.5°C by 2080, depending upon the emissions scenario

• For reference: Annual mean temperature in the Pacific Northwest increased by approximately 0.6°-0.8°C from 1901 to 2012, with nearly all of the increase in summer temperature occurring in the past three decades (Abatzoglou et al., 2014).

• Warming projected to be greatest during the summer (June, July, and August) under all scenarios.

IPCC 4th Assessment Results for PNW

Precipitation:• Much uncertainty in average annual precipitation

• REA for precipitation changes in 2100 was close to zero

• However, during the summer months, projections were more consistent for both emission scenarios: decreases of 20-40%

Predictions for Future Climate of the Pacific Northwest“The extreme weather events of 2015 provide an excellent opportunity to explore projected changes in baseline climate conditions for the Northwest “

• record-breaking warm and dry summers • multiyear droughts• Warmer than normal ocean temperatures • Impacts on fire, water supplies and quality, fish and wildlife, and local

economies, and carbon storage.

Ref: USGCRP, 2018: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II: Report-in-Brief [Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, K.L.M. Lewis, T.K. Maycock, and B.C. Stewart (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 186 pp.

Predictions for Future Fire Return Intervals and Area Burned

West of the Cascades

Mountains East of Cascades

Plains and Plateaus East of the Cascades

Fire Return Interval Increase Increase Increase

Area Burned increase Increase No change

Changes inVegetation

From dense conifer to less dense, more drought tolerant mixed forest*

No change No change

* Climate, rather than fire will drive these shifts

Ref: Projected major fire and vegetation changes in the Pacific Northwest of the conterminous United States under selected CMIP5 climate futures. T. Sheehan∗, D. Bachelet, K. Ferschweiler.

Ecological Modelling 317 (2015) 16–29

Predictions for Changes in Energy Release Component (ERCs)

• Most acute increases projected east of the Cascades and during the peak of the fire season

• Increase wildfire exposure across the region.

Dalton, M. et al. Projected Changes in the Energy Release Component Under Climate Change in Northwest Predictive Services Areas. January 2015

Predictions for Future Implications for Fires Management

• Decreased ability to suppress fires because of the more extreme weather conditions associated with the fires.• In the dry forests zones, treatments that involve prescribed burning

have shown the greatest potential for decreasing the size, intensity and severity of wildfires within treated areas.• Potential effects of climate change on burn windows are unknown.• Population growth in the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI)• Increases in air pollution emissions from wildfire, much of this will be

in the moist forests west of the Cascades• More smoke in populated areas west of the Cascades.

Ref: Wimberley and Liu, Interactions of climate, fire, and management in future forests of the Pacific NW, Forest Ecology and Management, 2014.

Forest Service Strategy

1. Assess vulnerabilitiesSub-regional Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments

2. Look at mitigation and adaption options 3. Select strategies

• What can we do now under our existing forest plans?• What do we need to go through NEPA?

4. Obtain the funds to implement

Climate Vulnerability and Adaption AssessmentsSouth Central Oregon• In terrestrial systems, a dominant

theme of adaptation in south central Oregon is to accelerate restoration and fuel treatments in dry forests to reduce the undesirable effects of extreme events and high-severity disturbances (wildfire, insects)

Cohesive Strategy1. Vision: • To safely and effectively

extinguish fire when needed; • use fire where allowable;

manage our natural resources; and • as a nation, to live with

wildland fire.2. Three tenets:• Resilient Landscapes• Fire Adapted Communities• Safe and Effective Wildfire

Response

Resilient Landscapes and the Use of Prescribed Fire in Fire-Dependent Ecosystems• Reduces hazardous fuels, protecting

human communities from extreme fires;• Minimizes the spread of pest insects

and disease;• Removes unwanted species that

threaten species native to an ecosystem;• Provides forage for game;• Improves habitat for threatened and

endangered species;• Recycles nutrients back to the soil; and• Promotes the growth of trees,

wildflowers, and other plants;

How is this strategy working?

In 2018, in the PNW, wildland fires interacted with over 800 fuel treatments. • Brought fire from the canopy to the surface• Reduced flame length and rate of spread• Allowed firefighters to engage directly to suppress the fires

THANK YOU