Presented by:

Von P. Walden (UI, lead scientist)

Rick Allen (UI hydro-climatology liaison)

Colden Baxter (ISU ecology liaison)

Sian Mooney (BSU economics liaison)

Water Resources in a Changing Climate:

Connections to Ecological and Human Systems

Background and Context

National Research Priorities“Determining how natural fluctuations and anthropogenic

factors impact the water cycle… is a major scientific challenge for the geosciences.”

“Geoscientists must probe more deeply into the coupled, interactive processes of the water cycle”

“quantify variability and alterations in the system(s) caused by global change”

Excerpt from recent NSF program solicitation for Water Cycle Research

Background and Context

(cont.)

“limitations of discipline-based perspectives have become clear”

“integrate across the physical, chemical, biological, and social sciences”

“the challenge… in water resources research… is to engage researchers in novel collaborations”

NRC, 2004. Confronting the Nation’s Water Problems: The Role of Research

Average climate change scenario (ECHAM5).

Temperature difference between the first and last decades of the 21st century for the month of April, the first month of the snow melt season.

Precipitation is expected to be more variable; greater extremes, including prolonged droughts

Projected Climate Change in Idaho

oC

Background and Context

Long-term warming over the past couple of decades is beginning to manifest itself on Idaho’s water resources

• Timing

• Magnitude

(From G. Clarke, USGS)

Background and Context

• Warmer temperatures may increase demand for:– Irrigation and agriculture (evapotranspiration)– Urban areas– Industrial uses (power generation)

And change the timing and magnitude of natural flows, thus affecting:– Natural ecosystems

• Climate change, in general, is expected to change the timing and magnitude of hydrologic systems, which will then impact ecological and human systems.

Research Questions

• How will future climate change impact water resources?

– Hydro - Climate

– Hydro - Economic / Policy

– Hydro - Ecology

Research Questions

• Hydro-climate interactions

– What are the relationships between climate change, vegetation, snow pack, and the resulting stream flows in managed and unmanaged river systems?

– How will aquifer systems exchange with surface and

groundwater under various climate change scenarios?

– What will both the supply and demand on water be in these systems under various climate change scenarios?

Research Questions

• Hydro-Economic / Policy Interactions

– How will changes in the timing and variability of water affect land use, urban growth, and water management within the Snake River Plain?

– How will changes in water availability affect conjunctive use of water and the relative value of surface water and groundwater rights?

– What are the expected changes in ecosystem services related to climate change?

Research Capabilities

• Hydro-Ecological Interactions

– What are the historical relationships among climate, hydrology, geomorphic conditions, fire, and ecology in the Salmon?

– How do current ecological conditions in the Salmon compare with the past?

– Can observed changes in hydrology, geomorphology, disturbances (fire, insects), and ecological health be attributed to changes in climate? If so, can accurate predictions of future changes in ecological conditions be made for the next century?

Building Research Capabilities

• Climate processes in northern Rocky Mountains (regional climate predictions, paleo-climate reconstructions) (Hydro-Climate)

• Coupled modeling of water supply/demand for large-basin water resource planning under a changing climate, including surface/groundwater interactions (large managed basins) (Hydro-Climate, Hydro-Economic/Policy)

• Long-term effects of climate change on natural ecosystems (pristine, unmanaged basins) (Hydro-Ecology)

• Relationship between climate change, changing flow and moisture regimes, and disturbances to the landscape in the northern Rocky Mountains (Hydro-Ecology)

• Development of prospective sites for long-term ecological research [future Long-Term Research in Evolutionary Biology (LTREB) sites,…] (Hydro-Ecology)

Research Plan

• Idaho as a “Natural Laboratory” for climate change research of national significance:

– Snake River Plain (SRP) • Large, Managed Hydrologic Systems

– Salmon River Basin (SRB) • Pristine, relatively unmanaged Hydrologic Systems

Moscow

Boise IdahoFalls

Research Plan

Snake River Plain• large river system• highly managed• human influences• economics/policy• agricultural• fisheries

Salmon River Basin• headwaters• pristine• natural• economic value• fisheries

Research Plan

Connection between surface and groundwater

Research Plan

Connection between surface and groundwater

Two-way couplingbetween hydrology and vegetation

Research Plan

Connection between surface and groundwater

Two-way couplingbetween hydrology and vegetation

Snowmelt/hydrologyFire (prescribed)Invasive Species

Research Plan

Connection between surface and groundwater

Two-way couplingbetween hydrology and vegetation

Snowmelt/hydrologyFire (pre-scribed)Invasive Species

Aquatic Ecosystems(stream health, fisheries)

Research Plan

Connection between surface and groundwater

Two-way couplingbetween hydrology and vegetation

Snowmelt/hydrologyFire (pre-scribed)Invasive Species

Aquatic Ecosystems(stream health, fisheries) Disturbances

(fires, insect infestations,Erosional processes)

Leveraging

• External Mentors– Overall Team Management

• Ed Miles (CIG, U. Washington)

– Hydro-climatology• Dennis Lettenmaier (U. Washington)

– Hydro-Ecological Interactions• Steve Running (U. Montana)

– Hydro-Economic• John Antle (Montana State Univ.)

Leveraging

• Organizational Strategy

– Complement establish research activities at the Climate Impacts Group (CIG) at U. Washington

– CIG as an “Mentor Organization”

Leveraging

• Collaboration with neighboring EPSCoR programs– Idaho, New Mexico, and Nevada are all focusing on

Climate Change in this RII.

– Idaho’s efforts are complementary to other states.• New Mexico - Climate Change and Mountain Hydrology• Nevada - Climate Change in desert regions; soil processes

– NSF has “strongly encouraged” these 3 states to work together, especially on cyberinfrastructure.

Leveraging

• Field Sites– Snake River Plain

• Long-term commitment to modeling of surface and groundwater

– Salmon River Basin• Long-term datasets on riparian systems (of many orders)

originally related to fire research

– INL plant community plots• Long-term data records of changes in plant species distributions

and their relationship to hydrologic processes

– Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed• Existing infrastructure for process studies on snowmelt.• Long-term data records for hydrologic, BGC, and invasive species

modeling.

Timeline

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

Junior Faculty

Instrumentation

New Hires

Re-compete

$3M per year for 5 years, plus $0.6M in state funds$2M per year for Science Infrastructure(Possibility for additional $1M/yr for Research; about $0.6M/yr

for CI)

Climate Change Impacts

Integration/Adaptation

Theme: Water Resources in a Changing ClimateWalden (UI)

External Mentors: Miles (UW)External Collaborator: Pierson (ARS, RCEW), Rango (ARS)

Hydrology/ClimateAllen (UI*), Leader

External Mentor: Lettenmaier (UW)Other collaborators: Salathe, Littell (UW)

Faculty Adviors: Boll, Johnson, Link (UI), McNamaraParticipants: Sridhar (BSU), Feris (BSU), Germino (ISU),

New hires

Hydrology/Climate - Biological Impacts

Baxter (ISU*), LeaderExternal Mentor: Running (UMt)

Faculty Adv: Benner (BSU), Glenn (ISU), Vierling (UI)Participants: Crosby (ISU), Hicke (UI), Kennedy (UI),

Pierce (BSU), Smith (UI), Yager (UI), New hires

Hydrology/Climate - Economic/Social Impacts

Mooney (BSU*), LeaderExternal Mentor: John Antle (MSU)Faculty Advisors: Hamilton, (UI, ret)

Participants: Ames (ISU), Lowe (BSU), New hires

* Institutional Liaisons

Stakeholder Advisory

CommitteeKathy Peter (USGS)Rich Rigby (USBR)Dave Tuthill, IDWR

Toni Hardesty, (DEQ)Emmit Taylor, Jr, (Nez Perce Tribe)

(more to come…)

Junior Faculty Development

• 10 New Hires– Year 1

• Water Resource Engineer (UI Boise) Hydro-Climate

– Year 2• Water Resource Engineer (BSU) Hydro-Climate• Climatologist (UI) Hydro-Climate• Spatial Econometrician (BSU) Hydro-Econ/Policy• Ecosystem Ecologist (BSU) Hydro-Econ/Policy

– Year 3• Regional Scientist (UI) Hydro-Econ/Policy• Soil Scientist (ISU) Hydro-Climate

– Year 4• Spatial Analyst (ISU) Hydro-Climate• Ecosystem Services Expert (UI) Hydro-Ecology• Water Policy Expert (UI) Hydro-Econ/Policy

Instrumentation

• Hydro-Climate– Large-aperture scintillometer– Eddy-covariance systems– Fiber-optic temperature sensor system– Thermal infrared, NIR, and visible radiometers

• Hydro-Ecology– Maintenance of sprinkler system for INL plots– Gas Chromatograph– Snow/vegetation Interaction Lab– Mobile Climate Manipulation Array– Total Station

Lidar Data and Cyberinfrastructure

• Airborne– Salmon River Basin

• Vegetation Characteristics– Fire, Insect Infestations

• River Channel Characteristics – Geomorphology

– Reynolds Creek (shared by various participants)• Snow and Vegetation

• Ground-based– Potential studies in hillside erosion, … (large datasets

at very fine res.)

Summary

• Research Plan is focused on the connection between climate change and water resources, but in three main areas:– Hydro-Climate Interactions

– Hydro-Ecological Interactions

– Hydro-Econ/Policy Interactions

Summary

• Research Capabilities will be built up in both:

– Understanding Impacts of Climate Change on Managed and Natural Ecosystems

– Adaptation to Future Climate Change

Summary

• Research Infrastructure will be improved by:

– Developing existing junior faculty– Making strategic new hires– Purchasing instrumentation– Acquisition and generation of large datasets

Faculty Web

Hydro-ClimateAllen (UI)

Hydro-Econ/PolicyMooney (BSU)

Hydro-EcologyBaxter (ISU)

SridharSmith

CrosbyFerisGerminoPierceYager Hicke

Kennedy

Ames LoweClimatologistWater Res EngineerWater Res EngineerSpatial Analyst Regional Scientist

Water Policy Expert

Eco-Services

Soil ScientistEcosystem Ecologist

Spatial Econometrician

StakeholdersStakeholders

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