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Chips With Everything

A personal perspective for discussion

IET Presidential AddressSavoy Place, 5 Oct 06

Sir Robin SaxbyEmeritus Chairman ARM Holdings plc

Visiting Professor University of Liverpool

robin.saxby@arm.com

Slides available at www.theiet.org

Chips With Everything

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FlowIET HistoryThe Chip IndustryARM case study

Technical & commercial leadership, globalisation, wealth creation, personal satisfaction, influence from UK foundationPeople stories as exemplars for younger engineers

Challenges & lessons from aboveTechnology drivers

Convergence of hardware and software + technology / design / cost challenges

2020 Vision biotech / microtech convergence era

IET Vision / Goals / ChallengesReferencesConclusions

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IET History1818 Civil Engineers were first

aspiring British students saw Civil Engineering as utopia for fun & wealth creation- waterfront in Liverpool, Boston and Shanghai

1847 Mechanicals - Birmingham base 1871 Society of Telegraph Engineers

Electricity / Power, Radio, Electronics, Computing, Bio, Nano …Offer B Eng or B Sc equivalent before universities

Oxbridge slow to adopt engineeringProfessionalism and professional development

Strong publishing revenue from 60’sExperts influencing government, informing the publicPersonalities, difference of opinion normalMergers - latest one IIE

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Microelectronics

SEA

Cirrus Logic

SEMATECH

555

Chip Industry FoundationsTechnology Development

70s - Waves of New Products

Digital Signal Processors DRAM EPROMMicroprocessors

Dec 1947-Bell Labs 1958 –TI 1967 – Fairchild

Transistor IC Standard MOS

666

Consequences of Moore’s Law

ITRS’99

Tran

sist

ors/

Chi

p (M

)

Tran

sist

or/P

M (K

)

1BTr

100Mtr

1Mt

1,800py 8,500py

100py

“Productivity Gap”

“Verification Gap”

777

Semiconductor Market SpecializationSeveral waves of semiconductor technology

Now in the middle of CMOSCMOS has enabled MSI → LSI → VLSI → SOC

Technical progress brings a basis for industry evolutionMiniaturization, reductions in costs, increases in complexity

Vertical integration gives way to horizontal specialization

1970’s

VerticalSuppliers

FullyVerticallyIntegrated

1980’s

ASICVendors

SystemManufacturer

ASICVendor

1990’s

FablessSemis

Design &Distribution

Manufacturing

EDA

Today

IP DrivenDesignDesign

EDA

IP

Manufacturing

Fab Equipment

888

System Chip MethodologyThe design task is so large that it is not possible to design the whole chip oneself …

Components, from independent suppliers are integrated to produce the so-called System-On-Chip.

The ARM RISC Processor has become a Keystone SoC Component; Fundamental tointerfacing the Hardware and Software aspects of this Digital World

1998Mobile-Phone Processor.

80mm2, 0.6μm

ARM7TDMI

OAK DSP

AM

BA

999

PC approach - Scaling for Performance

1982 - Intel 80286134 thousand transistors12MHz; 68.7 mm2

80s & 90s industry growth and scaling in computing power

1985 - Intel 80386275 thousand transistors33MHz; 104 mm2

1989 - Intel 803861.2 million transistors50MHz; 163 mm2

1993 - Intel Pentium3.1 million transistors66MHz; 264 mm2

1997 - Intel PentiumII7.5 million transistors300MHz; 209 mm2

1999 - Intel PentiumIII28 million transistors733MHz; 140 mm2

2000 - Intel Pentium442 million transistors1.5GHz; 224 mm2

101010

Scaling for Performance Consequence

1982 - Intel 80286134 thousand transistors12MHz; 68.7 mm2

1985 - Intel 80386275 thousand transistors33MHz ; 104 mm2

1989 - Intel 803861.2 million transistors50MHz; 163 mm2

1993 - Intel Pentium3.1 million transistors66MHz; 264 mm2

1997 - Intel PentiumII7.5 million transistors300MHz; 209 mm2

1999 - Intel PentiumIII28 million transistors733MHz; 140 mm2

2000 - Intel Pentium442 million transistors1.5GHz; 224 mm2

Performance at expense of power

and thermal challenges

Move to multi-processor

80s & 90s industry growth and scaling in computing power

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DEMAND

INVESTMENT COST REDUCTION

The Virtuous Circle

Source: “The New Paradigm” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 1999 Report and 2002 Actuals

1970 1980 1990 2002Cost of 1MHz $7,600.82 $103.40 $25.47 $0.17Cost of 1 megabit storage $5,256.90 $614.40 $7.85 $0.33Cost of sending 1 trillion bits $150,000.00 $129,166.67 $90.42 $0.12

Financial Benefit of Scaling

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ARM From Humble Beginnings£1.5M cash from Apple£250K cash from VLSI£1.5M of IP & 12 engineers from AcornProof of concept Acorn ArchimedesNo patents, no independent customers, product not ready for mass marketA barn, some energy, belief, experience

1 Partner VLSI Technology1 OS Acorn RISCOSNo tools

“We’re going to be the global standard”

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Where are the Founders Now?Robin Saxby - Founding CEO - President IET

Jamie Urquhart - Head VLSI design - Venture Capital Partner / NED

Mike Muller - Leading systems architect - ARM CTO & Director

Tudor Brown - Lead Video & Memory Designer - ARM COO & Director

Lee Smith - Lead Software Tools - ARM Fellow

John Biggs - VLSI Designer - ARM EDA R & D

Harry Oldham - Senior VLSI Designer - ARM Fellow VLSI Design Mgr

Dave Howard - VLSI Designer - ARM Consultant Engineer VLSI Design

Pete Harrod - Floating point guru - ARM Group Leader Tech & PeopleIET Branch Chair

Harry Meekings - C Compiler Guru - Retired

Al Thomas - Architecture Guru - Died

Andy Merritt - Software Tools Engineer - Voluntary worker

David Seal - Algorithm Designer - ARM Senior Algorithm Designer

1990 2006

141414

Volume drives success: 4.5Bn Units by 2010

050

100150200250300350400450500550600

Q49

9

Q20

0

Q40

0

Q20

1

Q40

1

Q20

2

Q40

2

Q20

3

Q40

3

Q20

4

Q40

4

Q20

5

Q40

5

Q20

6

2006

2Bn / year

2010

4.5Bn / year69 partners shipping (out of 184) at end H2 06

100’sM

151515

Scaling the ARM way

0

0.1

1

10

100mm2

20061988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 20041986

ARM1:3um; 50 mm2;120mW at 6MHz

ARM6: 1.2um; 15MHz

0.35um; 47MHz0.25um; 63MHz

180nm; 98MHz130nm; 125MHz

90nm; 219MHz

ARM7DM: 0.8um; 25MHz

ARM7TDMI ®: 0.6um; 33MHz

ARM7TDMI®:65nm; 0.1 mm2;~9mW at 350MHz

800 x power efficiency

500 x area efficiency

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But ARM has done performance too

1985 – ARM150mm2;4MHz; 3um

The 80s and 90s:

1988 – ARM312MHz; 1.2um

1999 – ARM920T140MHz; 0.25um

1994 – ARM71033MHz; 0.6um

2001 – ARM926EJ-S200MHz; 180nm200 DMIPS

2004 – ARM1176JZ-S400MHz; 130nm480 DMIPS

2005 – ARM MPCore (2 way)620MHz; 90nm1,488 DMIPS

2006 – ARM Cortex A81GHz; 65nm2,000 DMIPS

The new millennium:600x

Performance4.5mm2 core

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Community is as important as technologyARM Developers Conf., Santa Clara

2200+ attendees90 exhibitors & sponsors130+ papers & panel sessions

Success through broadest

Partner Support!

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Increasing Strategic Value

memorymemory

SoCSoC

ProcessorsSystem Level IP:Data EnginesFabric3D graphics

Physical IP

Software IP

Development Tools

Connected Community

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Founded Nov 1990Profitable and cash generative since 93Public April 98 NASDAQ and LSEMany engineers now financially secure Market cap £1.5Bapprox 1500 people across the globe100,000+ engineers working on ARM technology25% sales on R & DGlobal Semiconductor IP leader by 2.5X nearest competitorTiger best product awardShareholder and Investor AwardsEastern England “Employee of the year”

ARM Timeline

202020

MethodologyStrategy – 5 year horizonOperational Plan – 1 year horizonTactical Plan – 2-3 year horizonMonthly measurement / reportingMean & lean - Tight cost controlGet leads globally – Hire Presidents / Sales leaders globally – Then global design centresUSA, Europe, Japan, Other Asia in parallel – Then China / IndiaIdentify value points for long-term growthAdd high quality people to founding teamDevelop people potential – Long term planning – Fast track, technical ladderAs the company matures better systems and methods to manage complexity whilst keeping pace

212121

Biggest ARM ChallengesGet out, get paid & get a credit line“Joint ventures don’t work”Time to close first deals-potential cash crunchConflicts of interest with founding companiesTime and effort to close first dealsPartnership managementShareholder fall-out prior to IPOContinually evolving employee rolesManaging, internal, external, customer expectationsShareholder expectation vs “Creative Destruction” -AcquisitionGlobal dynamic of Governance standardsShare price volatility

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University Business CollaborationQuality and relevance of graduates

Technical competence versus business capabilityBusiness know-how versus entrepreneurial flair

Buying it in versus breeding your ownImportant aspect is “cultural fit”

Beware the frustrated academic aspiring business-manBe realistic about “time to money”Business is more customer pull than technology pushUniversity, Business & Government worlds exist inparallel universes on different time-lines

“IET Axis – Government / Academia / Industry – Professionalism”

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Learning points Strong competent teams can deliver amazing results

The team is only as good as its weakest link –consultants help

Vision, passion and hard work are key

Be realistic / pragmatic / honest re competition / listenDifferent deliverables to different time – lines – plan, plan – adjust, iterateAnticipate and satisfy explicit needs of real customers –Develop the market as well as the technologyGood salesmanship and communication are key skills neededQuality, professionalism, humour and complete

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Technology driver - Content deliveryFastest concert recording to digital download release

Time between recording of a live concert performance and its release for digital download sale:

44 minutes and 39 seconds‘Sgt Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band’ by Sir Paul McCartney and U2 Universal Music Group International for Live 8 (July 2, 2005)

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Technology driver - MiniaturisationDigitisation allows increased miniaturisation, performance and convenience

The best of analogue…

… has become smaller and

better

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Technology driver - More software

High-performance devices run large amounts of complex software All needs to be developed and integrated into final device

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Technology driver - Embedded intelligence

1913 Model T FordNo electronics

Circa 1980 BMW 733iIntroduction of ABS

2005 BMW 7 SeriesiDrive Control system

2015 - Pervasive but hidden electronics

2006 Chrysler announce40% of models will offer

iPod integration

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Technology driver - Changing lifestyles

Uni FormatAnalogue

Broadcast deliveryScattergun advertisingIn shop retail purchase

Media plays on any device

Early Multi FormatVoiceRingtonesPhotosMusicTV True Multi Format

All digitalContent downloadedTime shift broadcast

Unlimited storageDelivery choices

Targeted advertising

1880 1900 1926 1990 2000 2010

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Future Outlook - Healthcare & fitness

Emergence and growth of telemedicineRemoves distance between provider and patientNeed for connectivity increases hardwareand software integration challenges

Largest opportunity to add valueHealthcare systems under extreme stress despite $3T global spend

Improvements needed: In efficiency, reliability, privacy, quality of life

Product opportunities: Disease prevention, monitoring, therapy, services, IT

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2020: On the body

Mini LoggerTemp monitor

Chilli Heated Clothing

Active Joint Brace wins MIT $50K Cochlear Ear Replacement Eye

Active Clothing

313131

2020: Products for the InfirmedBiometrics - time to visit the doctor again

Implanted automatic drug delivery

Controls Parkinson’sDisease

Heart monitoring

MedtronicReplacement Pancreas

Insulin Delivery

3D freescan image

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2020: Products for KidsActive clothing / skin? that changes colour / tone for mood?

Allow online searching by thought

Holographic projection conference calling with friends

DNA Screen

On offer in a Cambridge

shop

“In his latest column for Business 2.0, "Wearable Tech," Rafe Needleman tells us that clothes that can change colors electronically are soon coming to our closets.”

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2020: Products for KidsFive-sense Virtual Reality gaming and experiences

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Ultimate Product?Heated Seat

2 Heated Water Bidet StreamsElectronically Temperature Controlled

Electronic Water Pressure ControlAutomatic Shut-off

Electronic BidetThe World’s Best

Toilet Seat!

Keizo Mura Skiing on his 100th BirthdaySalt Lake City

Home medical advisor,Speech, patient history,Take pills with patient

monitoring

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ConclusionSuccessful tech industry is built on solid foundations and has exciting times aheadAlways new challenges to be overcomeOld methods do not scaleAccelerated move to global open standards,collaboration & partnershipImproving system design methods to enable management of increased complexitySoftware becomes an ever more critical part of the solutionSome new winnersOnly the innovative survive

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An IET VisionAn Institution for the 21st Century

Practise professionalism everywhereKnowledge Networks – Web & real – Collaboration & partnershipIET.tv, Flipside, INSPEC and the web as resources for great stuff

Inform the public – Help raise the SET profile Inspire and encourage the young to take up SET careersEnable member career development and professionalism

Facilities – Services, web, meeting, coffee, real networkingBenevolent Fund

Greater global relevancePartnership for global reach and relevance

Vision in detail for local deliveryUse technology for innovative delivery & communication to world audience

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Development of unified visionStrategy, BoT, Council, Presidential teamwork and successionPartnership - other Institutions, governments, industry, academiaQuality planLead by example, development of strategy, team-work -calendarGreater branch activity with focused appeal and targeting - includes visits, technician development Web & IET.tv DevelopmentUnderpinned by Publishing and Events

- includes long term vision of information sourcing

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ReferencesA History of The institution of Electrical Engineers 1871-1981 – WJ ReaderThe Victorian Internet & The Mechanical Turk – Tom StandageMicrosoft Secrets –Michael A Cusumano & Richard W SelbyTotal Global Strategy – George S YipThe Age of Spiritual Machines – Ray KurzweilThe Private Life of The Brain – Susan GreenfieldCompeting For The Future – Gary Hamel & CK PrahaladCreative Destruction – Richard Foster & Sarah KaplanThe World Is Flat – Thomas L FriedmanITRS Roadmap for Semiconductors

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Q & A

www.theiet.org