price patterns, charts and technical analysis: the
TRANSCRIPT
PRICEPATTERNS,CHARTSANDTECHNICALANALYSIS:THEMOMENTUMSTUDIES
AswathDamodaran
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TheRandomWalkHypothesis
Current Next period
Stock price is an unbiased estimate of the value of the stock.
Information
Price Assessment
Implications for Investors
No approach or model will allow us to identify under or over valued assets.
New information comes out about the firm.
All information about the firm is publicly available and traded on.
The price changes in accordance with the information. If it contains good (bad) news, relative to expectations, the stock price will increase (decrease).
Reflecting the 50/50 chance of the news being good or bad, there is an equal probability of a price increase and a price decrease.
Market Expectations
Investors form unbiased expectations about the future
Since expectations are unbiased, there is a 50% chance of good or bad news.
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TheBasisforPricePatterns
1. Investorsarenotalwaysrationalinthewaytheysetexpectations.Theseirrationalitiesmayleadtoexpectationsbeingsettoolowforsomeassetsatsometimesandtoohighforotherassetsatothertimes.Thus,thenextpieceofinformationismorelikelytocontaingoodnewsforthefirstassetandbadnewsforthesecond.
2. Pricechangesthemselvesmayprovideinformationtomarkets.Thus,thefactthatastockhasgoneupstronglythelastfourdaysmaybeviewedasgoodnewsbyinvestors,makingitmorelikelythatthepricewillgouptodaythendown.
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TheEmpiricalEvidenceonPricePatterns
• Investorshaveusedpricechartsandpricepatternsastoolsforpredictingfuturepricemovementsforaslongastherehavebeenfinancialmarkets.
• Thefirststudiesofmarketefficiencyfocusedoncomputingthecorrelationinpricechangesovertime,toseeifinfactsuchpredictionswerefeasible.• Positivecorrelation:Pricemomentum• Negativecorrelation:Pricereversal
• Evidenceonpricebehaviorcanbeclassifiedintofourclasses– Studiesthatlooksatthereallyshortterm(minutes&Hours)– Studiesthatfocusonshort-term(Daily&Weeklypricemovements)– Studiesthatlookatmediumterm(manymonthsoryearly)– Studiesthatexaminelong-term(five-yearreturns)
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1.SerialCorrelationinreallyshort-termreturns(minutes&hours)
¨ Marketmicrostructureeffect:Thegeneralconsensusofstudiesinreallyshorttermreturns(minutes,hours)isthatthereisverylowserialcorrelation,withtwostructuraleffects:a. Marketliquidityeffect:Ifmarketsarenotliquid,youwillsee
positiveserialcorrelationinindexreturns.b. Bid-askspreadeffect:Thebid-askspreadcreatesabiasinthe
oppositedirection,iftransactionspricesareusedtocomputereturns,sincepriceshaveaequalchanceofendingupatthebidortheaskprice.Thebouncethatthisinducesinpriceswillresultinnegativeserialcorrelationsinreturns.
¨ SpeedandScale:Tomakemoneyoftheseserialcorrelations,youhavetotradefast,atlowcostandinlargequantities.Increasingly,computersarebeatinghumanbeingsatthisgame(highfrequencytrading,forinstance).
¨ Imitatedquickly:Thatsaid,eventhesecomputer-basedtradingstrategiesrunoutofsteamquickly,sincetherearealwaysmorepowerfulcomputersoutthere.
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2.Serialcorrelationintheshortterm(days):DailyReturnPredictabilityfrom1926-2018
PriorPeriodReturns ValueWeighted EquallyWeightedWorst 0.0162% 0.1308%2 0.0332% 0.0842%3 0.0388% 0.0760%4 0.0391% 0.0752%5 0.0387% 0.0729%6 0.0422% 0.0717%7 0.0439% 0.0718%8 0.0517% 0.0760%9 0.0521% 0.0825%
Best 0.0646% 0.0947%
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3.Serialcorrelationinthemediumterm:Manymonthsorayear
¨ Positivecorrelation:Whentimeisdefinedasmanymonthsorayear,ratherthanasinglemonth,thereseemstobeatendencytowardspositiveserialcorrelation.
¨ Momentumeffect:Jegadeesh andTitmanpresentevidenceofwhattheycall“pricemomentum”instockpricesovertimeperiodsofseveralmonths– stocksthathavegoneupinthelastsixmonthstendtocontinuetogoupwhereasstocksthathavegonedowninthelastsixmonthstendtocontinuetogodown.
¨ Evidence:Between1945and2010,ifyouclassifiedstocksintodecilesbaseduponpriceperformanceoverthepreviousyear,theannualreturnyouwouldhavegeneratedbybuyingthestocksinthethetopdecileandheldforthenextyearwas16.5%higherthanthereturnyouwouldhaveearnedonthestocksinthebottomdecile.
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Annualreturnsfrommomentumclasses
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More“evidence”onmomentum
1. Volumeeffect:Momentumaccompaniedbyhighertradingvolumeisstrongerandmoresustainedthanmomentumwithlowtradingvolume.
2. Sizeeffect:Whileearlierstudiessuggestthatmomentumisstrongeratsmallmarketcapcompanies,amorerecentstudythatlooksatUSstocksfrom1926to2009findstherelationshiptobeaweakone,thoughitdoesconfirmthattherearesubperiodswheremomentumandfirmsizearecorrelated.
3. UpsidevsDownside:Theconclusionsseemtovary,dependingonthetimeperiodexamined,withupsidemomentumdominatingoververylongtimeperiods(1926-2009)anddownsidemomentumwinningoutoversomesub-periods(1980-1996).
4. Growtheffect:Pricemomentumismoresustainedandstrongerforhighergrowthcompanieswithhigherpricetobookratiosthanformorematurecompanieswithlowerpricetobookratios.
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4.LongTermSerialCorrelation:Overmanyyears
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Thetippingpoint…Momentumworks,untilitdoesnot..
!
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ExtremeMomentum:Bubbles..
• Lookingattheevidenceonpricepatterns,thereisevidenceofbothpricemomentum(inthemediumterm)andpricereversal(intheshortandreallylongterm).
• Readtogether,youhavethebasisforpricebubbles:themomentumcreatesthebubbleandthecrashrepresentsthereversal.
• Throughthecenturies,marketshaveboomedandbusted,andintheaftermathofeverybust,irrationalinvestorshavebeenblamedforthecrash.
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BlooperversusBubble
¨ Blooper¤ Rationalmarketscanmakemistakes.Assessmentsofvaluearebasedupon
expectations,whichareformedwiththeinformationthatisavailableatthetimeoftheassessments.Youwillbewrongalotofthetimeandverywrongsomeofthetime.
¤ Itisthereforeentirelypossibleandverylikely,eveninanefficientmarket,toseesignificantpricingerrors.
¨ Bubble¤ Abubbleisawillfulerror,suggestiveofirrationalbehavioratsomelevel.¤ Thisirrationalbehaviormanifestsitselfasanunwillingnessorincapacityon
thepartofinvestorsinthemarkettofaceuptoreality.¨ Separatingbloopersfrombubblesisdifficult.Thereisatendencyonthe
partofsome(theanti-marketefficiencycrowd)toviewallbigpriceadjustmentsasevidenceofbubbles,justasthereisatendencyonthepartoftheothers(thetruebelieversinmarketefficiency)toviewallbigpriceadjustmentsasevidenceofbloopers.
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TheBottomLine
¨ Arestockpricescorrelatedovertime?Yes,butinwhatdirectionandhowmuchdependsonyourtimehorizonandthethetypeofstockthatyouarelookingat.¤ Withshortertimehorizons(daystomonths),momentumstrategies,whereyoubuypastperiodwinnersandsellpastperiodlosersseemstowinout.
¤ Asthetimehorizonlengthenstoyears,reversalstrategiesseemtobebetter,whereyousellpastperiodwinnersandbuypastlosers.
¤ Withboththesestrategies,theriskisthatyouareoffonyourtiming.
¨ Allthesestrategiesworkbetteroflessliquid,highergrowthandsmallercapstocksthanonlargercap,moreliquidstocks.