Primaries and caucuses

Timing of primaries The national parties usually lay down the

earliest and latest possible dates but within that period the state decides the date

Some states try to schedule their primaries on a date when no other primaries are being held to get their state prominence

Other states create a regional primary A Tuesday in Feb when a number of states

arrange their primaries together has come to be known as SUPER TUESDAY

In 2008 Super Tuesday was in early Feb and was the biggest ever with 22 Democrat and 21 Republican contests being held.

Front-loading This is the phenomenon by which an

increasing number of states schedule their presidential primaries or caucuses earlier in the cycle

This is usually an attempt to increase the importance of their state

In 1980 only 11 states had their primary before March

By 5 February 2008 55% of delegates to the Democratic and Republican conventions had been chosen (see sheet)

Iowa and New Hampshire By tradition they always hold the first primaries. These contests often shape the character of later

contests. A serious candidate always looks to win in one of

these states However, Bill Clinton failed to win either one Also, Howard Dean did badly here, (hence the

scream) even tho he had won the invisible primary Kerry had put all his time and money into winning

Iowa (which was first) which he did and this seemed to be a winning strategy as he then built up momentum and then won New Hampshire

This seems to show these contests are more important than the invisible primary?

How representative are Iowa and New Hampshire?

These contests seemed more important in 2004 than the invisible primary

Answer the question using the sheet

Advantages of front loading

Party settles its nomination early thus avoiding a protracted and expensive battle lasting for months

Disadvantages of front loading Unfairly favours well-known, well-organised

and well-financed candidates and makes it much more difficult for so-called insurgent candidacies to be successful e.g. Jimmy Carter in 1976 Democratic race

Because the nomination is decided so early, there is little opportunity for any reassessment of a candidate’s potential weaknesses. Can lead to ‘buyer’s remorse’.

Has also lead to a chaotic timetable which makes it difficult for candidates to campaign

The 2008 Republican primary There were 8 candidates but only 4 were

realistic ie McCain, Thompson, Romney and Guiliani

McCain was the front-runner at the start of 2007. Any ideas why?

Romney was the CEO of the Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City in 2002 and was also Governor of Massachusetts, a Republican governor of a Democrat state. But he is a Mormon and also seen as quite liberal

The 2008 Republican primary Guiliani was ‘America’s mayor’

after 09/11 However, he was also seen as too

liberal for some Republicans and had a colourful private life

Fred Thompson was in Law and Order but he dithered too much and then dropped out

The 2008 Republican primary Guiliani took a risk that did not pay off –

he decided to sit out the first 6 contests as he felt he would be too liberal to play well with Republican voters

He had failed to build up momentum or get media attention and thus bombed in Florida

Romney thus put all his money into winning Iowa in the hope of building up momentum, however, Huckabee won

Huckabee was seen as more ‘normal’ than the slick Romney

Continued New Hampshire helped McCain, he had

done what Bill Clinton had in 1992 when he labelled himself the ‘comeback kid’.

He had been behind in the money primary but then started to build momentum

McCain had beaten Romney in every demographic except the over 65s

In the following contests it was his support amongst ‘independents’ which helped him

Crowning of McCain Super Tuesday sealed McCain’s

fate as the Republican nominee He won 6 of the 7 ‘winner-takes-

all’ contests including California. Huckabee had played a key role as

he had taken votes away from Romney having support from evangelicals and the South

Why did McCain win? Mainly because his opposition imploded

e.g. Guiliani’s disastrous strategy Romney being liberal but pandering to the

conservative right of the Republican party Thompson dithered Huckabee only really appealed to

southerners and evangelicals McCain had remained true to himself even

on unpopular issues e.g. immigration, Iraq and campaign finance reform

The 2008 Democratic primary There were 3 front-runners - Clinton, Obama

and John Edwards Clinton was the clear front-runner, 2 months

before Iowa she was 28% ahead of Obama However, she came 3rd in the Iowa caucuses She never really recovered from this Charlie Cook ‘National Journal’ – ‘The

Democratic nomination fight may not be over but the landscape has completely changed’

2008 Democrat primary contest The poll after the Iowa caucuses put

Obama and Clinton at 33% each Hillary tried to show her more human

side as she was now fighting for her political life

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVlwH7-05Fk

She won New Hampshire but only by 8000 votes. More women had voted for her and the younger voters

2008 Democratic primary contest Between New Hampshire and Super Tuesday

Clinton won Nevada and Obama won South Carolina

Most women voted for Clinton and the over 65s but every other social group voted for Obama in South Carolina

Obama got the endorsement of Ted Kennedy Bill had campaigned in South Carolina and he

seemed to be losing his cool http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=su82qBzUw

jQ Ted Kennedy said that the contest had

‘fundamentally altered the dynamics of the Democrat presidential contest’

Super Tuesday The result was a draw, with Obama just

ahead on points Obama won 13 to Clinton’s 9 but

Clinton’s tally included large-population states of California and New York

Obama won 847 delegates to Clinton’s 834

Clinton had not expected the primary contests to last and thus had no plan to move forward

Obama now had the big mo

The end of Clinton Hillary’s contest ended in February Obama won 9 contests in 11 days and pulled

ahead in terms of delegate numbers Clinton sacked her campaign manager Patti

Solis Doyle By mid-February Obama was ahead in the

polls and was now winning votes amongst women, low income earners and conservatives away from Clinton

Symbolically, the Obama team started his speech before she had even finished hers

Clinton hoped to win Texas to show she could still win big

Hillary’s last hurrah Clinton team were running out of the big mo and

money and everyone was waiting for to bow out However, she had a better March and April –

winning Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island Clinton focussed on Obama’s lack of foreign

policy experience Her ’sniper fire’ quote was found to be

misleading However, Obama had his own bad press due to

his association with Rev. Jeremiah Wright and his controversial comments

Clinton clung on until June when Obama finally received the 2,118 delegate votes he needed

Why did Clinton lose? The 2008 Democratic nomination

race was supposed to be a coronation for Clinton not a competition

She had been planning her victory for more than a decade

But this was part of her problem, the air of inevitability, this counted against her with voters

Poor organisation, personnel and management Based organisation similar to Bill’s

campaign in 92 Chief personnel were Patti Solis Doyle

and Mark Penn who were friends and not necessarily the best people for the job

There seemed to be no clear plan Some of her team were fighting with

each other

Losing the money primary ‘Mrs Clinton built the best fund-raising

machine of the 20th century but Mr Obama trumped her by building the best fund-raising machine of the 21st century’ The Economist

Clinton campaign was raising money the old way – thru fat cats and ‘whales’ i.e. big donors who only donate once

Obama was raising money thru the internet getting $50 or $100 but many times

Change, not experience

Voters according to polls wanted change but Clinton had based her campaign on ‘experience’ and tried to attack Obama for lack of it

The Iowa defeat

Clinton finished third in Iowa and from then on was always on the defensive

She needed to have a big win in New Hampshire to pull things back but altho she did win it was only by 3 percentage points

No plan past Super Tuesday

‘It’ll be over by 5 February’ Clinton had claimed just days before the Iowa caucuses

She thus had no plan to move forward and was running out of money

Bill Clinton The campaign started to be about Bill

and his erratic behaviour He was supposed to be an asset but had

turned from ‘statesman into attack dog’ Newsweek

The issue became if she can’t control her husband, who the hell is going to run this White House – a Clinton insider

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qqd2dfjl2pw

Primary calendar and party rules

‘It was the primary calendar that killed Clinton’s 2008 presidential campaign’ New York Observer

If the Democrats had allowed winner-takes-all primaries

If Florida and Michigan had been a bit later etc