primary care 2025 yasemin arikan institute for alternative futures september 20, 2013
TRANSCRIPT
PRIMARY CARE 2025Yasemin ArikanInstitute for Alternative FuturesSeptember 20, 2013
Agenda
• Intro to Futures Studies, Aspirational Futures
• Explore Four Primary Care 2025 Futures
• Robust Strategies for a Preferred Future
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INTRO TO FUTURES STUDIES AND ASPIRATIONAL FUTURES
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Aspirational Futures Approach
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FOUR PRIMARY CARE 2025 SCENARIOS
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1. Many Needs, Many Models
2. Lost Decade, Lost Health
3. Primary Care That Works for All
4. I Am My Own Medical Home
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SCENARIO 1: MANY NEEDS, MANY MODELS
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Scenario 1: Many Needs, Many Models
Key Outcomes
40% in integrated systems
30% in semi-integrated
30% in fee-for service
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SCENARIO 2:LOST DECADE, LOST HEALTH
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Scenario 2: Lost Decade, Lost Health
Key Outcomes
35% in fee-for-service
30% in integrated systems
20% in semi-integrated
15% in concierge fee-for-service
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But Web MD clearly indicated that I am dying.
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SCENARIO 3:PRIMARY CARE THAT WORKS FOR ALL
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Scenario 3: Primary Care That Works for All
Key Outcomes
85% in integrated systems (e.g., CCHH)
10% in “concierge” FFS
5% are uninsured
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SCENARIO 4:I AM MY OWN MEDICAL HOME
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Scenario 4: I Am My Own Medical Home
Key Outcomes
40% in self-care with high-deductible catastrophic insurance
40% in integrated systems
10% in concierge care
10% are uninsured22 out of 30
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Likelihood vs. Preferability
L P Scenario #1 Many Needs, Many Models __ % __ %
Scenario #2 Lost Decade, Lost Health __ % __ %
Scenario #3 Primary Care that Works for All __ % __ %
Scenario #4 I Am My Own Medical Home __ % __ %
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ROBUST STRATEGIES FOR A PREFERRED FUTURE
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• Enable osteopathic principles and practitioners to demonstrate their particular value for quality and cost-effective care for all.
• Engage with the development of self-care tools, particularly their decision-making rules.
• Determine your role in improving population health and provide training and support accordingly.
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QUESTIONS?
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Community Health Centers Leveraging the Social Determinants of Health
www.altfutures.org/LeveragingSDH
Primary Care 2025
www.altfutures.org/primarycare2025
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