prime bank ltd - earnings call - january 2012

13
Analysts: Farjad Siddiqui [email protected] Sajid Huq [email protected] For the full year 2011, we forecast 12% growth in PBL’s loans and advances, year-on-year (YoY), compared to a 32% 2010 loan growth, YoY. Increased government borrowing from banks and Bangladesh Bank’s contractionary monetary policy are the reasons behind the reduced loan growth rate. We estimate PBL deposits to grow at 28% YoY in 2011: higher than its 4 -year historical average growth rate. Deposit growth is a result of a slowing stock market, attractive rates on deposit products, and declining sales of national savings certificates. PBL is authorized to lend to the government, being a Primary Dealer (PD). To finance government’s borrowing needs, PBL’s investment in treasuries increased by 94% in 3Q11: represents 24% of deposits being allocated to treasury investments. PBL’s aggregate yield from treasuries (including capital gains) is 11.5- 12.0%. Since PBL’s weighted average deposit rate is 8.5-9.0%, it earns a spread of 3% from treasuries. PBL’s historical loan-to-deposit interest rate spread (IRS) is around 5.1% and even in 2011 IRS is anticipated to be over 5%. As is evident, the near-doubling treasury investments of PBL will imply significant spread erosion. Moreover, reduced 2011 export growth is expected to undermine PBL’s 2011 commission income. We anticipate a 2011 growth in commission income 21% YoY: significantly lower than the 2010 growth of 56% YoY. For 2011, we forecast PBL fully diluted earnings per share (EPS) to be BDT 5.15 and Net Asset Value (NAV) per share to be BDT 27.92. Worth noting that since 2010 EPS growth was high, 2011 EPS growth had to account for a higher base from which to grow government borrowing and monetary tightening notwithstanding. Over the next 3 years, we anticipate higher EPS growth rates of 30%, 21%, and 20%, respectively. Gradual monetary policy easing, funds from International Financial Institutions (IFIs), reduced government borrowing, RMG volume growth and remittance recovery are expected to drive EPS growth in 2012-2014. . Rating: We estimate EPS of BDT 6.65 and BVPS of BDT 33.80 for the year ending in December 2012, and set a target price of BDT 58.0 per share with an OUTPERFORM rating. This implies a 29.0% total return on current share price of BDT 45.20 (as on January 2, 2012). Prime Bank Ltd DSE: PRIMEBANK Bloomberg: PB:BD Rating: Outperform Dec-2012 Fair Value Estimate: BDT 58 per share January 3, 2012 Company Summary Ticker PRIMEBANK Sector Bank Date of Incorporation 12-Feb-95 Date of Listing 27-Mar-00 Financial Year End December Number of Shares (mn) 779.8 Current Market Capitalization (BDT bn) 34.7 DSE Market Capitalization (BDT bn) 2,607.3 % of DSE Market Capitalization 1.3% 52 Week High (BDT) 99.4 52 Week Low (BDT) 34.1 YTD Return (%) -36.4% 52 Week Volume Traded (BDT mn) 71.3 Trailing EPS (BDT) 4.6 Trailing P/E ratio (x) 8.8 Revenue BDT MM 2010 2011E 2012E Net Interest Income 4,648.3 5,059.8 5,744.1 Investment Income 2,717.5 3,498.2 4,610.4 Commissions etc 2,718.2 3,289.0 3,946.8 Other income 708.5 1,033.1 919.8 Total revenue 10,792.5 12,880.1 15,221.2 Margin and efficiency (%) 2010 2011E 2012E Operating efficiency 34.9% 36.0% 36.0% Loan/Deposit 95.2% 83.3% 87.4% ROE 24.9% 20.5% 21.6% ROA 2.6% 2.3% 2.4% Net Interest Margin (%) 3.87% 3.75% 3.28% Other Key Indicators (%) 2010 2011E 2012E Loan-Dep Rate Spread % 5.25% 5.30% 5.30% NIM % 3.87% 3.75% 3.28% Cost-to-Income 34.93% 36.00% 36.00% NPL 1.23% 1.15% .0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 600.0 700.0 800.0 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Turnover, BDT MM Price, BDT Turnover Price Sources: Company Annual Report, BRAC EPL Research Price performance of PBL in last 12 months Sources: Dhaka Stock Exchange

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A careful look at the Income Statement, Balance Sheet and Statement of Cash Flows to performance a historical and current earnings and valuation analysis of a leading commercial bank in Bangladesh, Prime Bank Limited (PBL)

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Page 1: Prime Bank Ltd - Earnings Call - January 2012

Analysts: Farjad Siddiqui

[email protected] Sajid Huq

[email protected]

For the full year 2011, we forecast 12% growth in PBL’s loans and advances, year-on-year (YoY), compared to a 32% 2010 loan growth, YoY. Increased government borrowing from banks and Bangladesh Bank’s contractionary monetary policy are the reasons behind the reduced loan growth rate. We estimate PBL deposits to grow at 28% YoY in 2011: higher than its 4-year historical average growth rate. Deposit growth is a result of a slowing stock market, attractive rates on deposit products, and declining sales of national savings certificates. PBL is authorized to lend to the government, being a Primary Dealer (PD). To finance government’s borrowing needs, PBL’s investment in treasuries increased by 94% in 3Q11: represents 24% of deposits being allocated to treasury investments. PBL’s aggregate yield from treasuries (including capital gains) is 11.5-12.0%. Since PBL’s weighted average deposit rate is 8.5-9.0%, it earns a spread of 3% from treasuries. PBL’s historical loan-to-deposit interest rate spread (IRS) is around 5.1% and even in 2011 IRS is anticipated to be over 5%. As is evident, the near-doubling treasury investments of PBL will imply significant spread erosion. Moreover, reduced 2011 export growth is expected to undermine PBL’s 2011 commission income. We anticipate a 2011 growth in commission income 21% YoY: significantly lower than the 2010 growth of 56% YoY. For 2011, we forecast PBL fully diluted earnings per share (EPS) to be BDT 5.15 and Net Asset Value (NAV) per share to be BDT 27.92. Worth noting that since 2010 EPS growth was high, 2011 EPS growth had to account for a higher base from which to grow — government borrowing and monetary tightening notwithstanding. Over the next 3 years, we anticipate higher EPS growth rates of 30%, 21%, and 20%, respectively. Gradual monetary policy easing, funds from International Financial Institutions (IFIs), reduced government borrowing, RMG volume growth and remittance recovery are expected to drive EPS growth in 2012-2014.

.

Rating: We estimate EPS of BDT 6.65 and BVPS of BDT 33.80 for

the year ending in December 2012, and set a target price of BDT

58.0 per share with an OUTPERFORM rating. This implies a 29.0%

total return on current share price of BDT 45.20 (as on January 2,

2012).

Prime Bank Ltd DSE: PRIMEBANK Bloomberg: PB:BD

Rating: Outperform Dec-2012 Fair Value Estimate: BDT 58 per share

January 3, 2012

Company Summary

Ticker PRIMEBANK

Sector Bank

Date of Incorporation 12-Feb-95

Date of Listing 27-Mar-00

Financial Year End December

Number of Shares (mn) 779.8

Current Market Capitalization (BDT bn) 34.7

DSE Market Capitalization (BDT bn) 2,607.3

% of DSE Market Capitalization 1.3%

52 Week High (BDT) 99.4

52 Week Low (BDT) 34.1

YTD Return (%) -36.4%

52 Week Volume Traded (BDT mn) 71.3

Trailing EPS (BDT) 4.6 Trailing P/E ratio (x) 8.8

Revenue BDT MM 2010 2011E 2012E

Net Interest Income 4,648.3 5,059.8 5,744.1

Investment Income 2,717.5 3,498.2 4,610.4

Commissions etc 2,718.2 3,289.0 3,946.8

Other income 708.5 1,033.1 919.8

Total revenue 10,792.5 12,880.1 15,221.2

Margin and efficiency (%) 2010 2011E 2012E

Operating efficiency 34.9% 36.0% 36.0%

Loan/Deposit 95.2% 83.3% 87.4%

ROE 24.9% 20.5% 21.6%

ROA 2.6% 2.3% 2.4% Net Interest Margin (%) 3.87% 3.75% 3.28%

Other Key Indicators (%) 2010 2011E 2012E

Loan-Dep Rate Spread % 5.25% 5.30% 5.30%

NIM % 3.87% 3.75% 3.28%

Cost-to-Income 34.93% 36.00% 36.00%

NPL 1.23% 1.15%

.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11

Tu

rn

ov

er,

BD

T M

M

Pric

e, B

DT

Turnover Price

Sources: Company Annual Report, BRAC EPL Research

Price performance of PBL in last 12 months

Sources: Dhaka Stock Exchange

Page 2: Prime Bank Ltd - Earnings Call - January 2012

Prime Bank Ltd (DSE: PRIMEBANK; Bloomberg: PB:BD)

2

Growth in Loans and Advances (L&A): We expect L&A Growth Rate (GR) of 12% YoY in 2011, lower than 32.12% YoY

growth in 2010, and 4-yr CAGR of 26.6% 2007-2010. L&A GR fell on spike in

treasury investments as well as M2 contraction by the Bangladesh Bank (BB).

Higher fiscal deficit financing (increased by 36x during the July– December

2011 YoY) will curb L&A growth for PDs such as PBL. Meanwhile, BoP

pressure and increasing inflation prompted M2 contraction; BB raised repo

rates multiple times and allowed large loans very selectively. Mandate to

domestic private banks is to enable large loans to agriculture, SME, and export-

oriented sectors, but restrict them in case of capital markets, real estate, and

retail sectors.

M2 GR fell from 23.5% to 19.6% during March-Sep11, nearing BB’s FY12 year-

end target of 18%. We anticipate an M2 GR lower than BB-target, as BB tries to

mitigate the inflationary effect of a BoP deficit and FX depreciation. Government

borrowing is likely to drop in 1H12 with its impact becoming clearer in 2H12—on

upward revision of energy prices.

Figure 1: PBL L&A Growth

Figure 2: PBL L&A Composition

Sources: Company Annual Report, BRAC EPL Research

Sources: Company Annual Report (As on 4Q10)

Retail Loan, 8.36% SME Loan,

5.18%

Corporate Loan, 84.86%

Staff Loan, 1.13%

Credit Card, 0.47%

28% 31%

19%

32%

12%

30%

25%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011E

2012E

2013E

L &

A G

R

L &

A (

BD

T M

M)

L & A (BDT MM) L & A GR (YoY)

Page 3: Prime Bank Ltd - Earnings Call - January 2012

Prime Bank Ltd (DSE: PRIMEBANK; Bloomberg: PB:BD)

3

Deposit growth and loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR): We anticipate a 28% YoY deposit growth in 2011, higher than 16.6% YoY in

2010, and 20.7% 4-year CAGR. From the demand viewpoint, deposits grew on

attractive bank rates, 44% stock market correction, and declining savings

certificate sales. From the supply end, deposit mobilization was stepped up to

meet PD-mandate of financing government borrowing needs.

Further, we estimate an LDR of 80% in 2011, far lower than 2010 LDR of 95%.

This was likely to happen because of 2010’s historically high L&A GR; further

precipitated by monetary tightening and government borrowing. As such—a

projected 80% LDR—85% being the LDR upper-limit expected of PDs is

testimony to PBL’s enduring return on equity (also keeping record deposit

mobilization in mind).

Figure 3: PBL Deposits Composition and GR

Sources: Company Annual Report, BRAC EPL Research

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E

LD

R

LDR

Figure 4: PBL Loan-Deposit Ratio (LDR)

Sources: Company Annual Report, BRAC EPL Research

29%

25%22%

17%

28%

24% 24%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F2012F2013F

Dep

osit

s G

R

Dep

osit

s (B

DT

MM

)

Current Deposits and other accounts Bills payable

Savings bank Deposits Fixed Deposits

Deposit Growth Rate

Page 4: Prime Bank Ltd - Earnings Call - January 2012

Prime Bank Ltd (DSE: PRIMEBANK; Bloomberg: PB:BD)

4

Net Interest Income (NII) Given L&A estimates and deposit outlook—we project 2011 NII GR of 8.85%

YoY—dropping from that of 2010’s 89.5%, and 4-year CAGR of 21.8%. 2011

NIM should also decline to 3.75% from 3.9% in 2010. This was driven by loan

diversion on account of high government borrowing.

Non-Interest Income Non-interest income constitutes 61.6% of PBL’s expected 2011 EPS. As per 4-

year average, its proportion rises to 63.5% of Total Operating Income, with

investment income at 30.7% and commissions & fees income at 24.3%. Given

that IRS and NIMs decline over time, PBL’s earnings drivers are diversified.

Estimated 2011 non-interest income comprises 60% of Total Operating Income.

Figure 5: PBL Net Interest Margin (NIM) Figure 6: PBL Interest Rate Spread and Inflation

Sources: Company Annual Report, BRAC EPL Research

3.2% 3.2%

2.5%2.7%

3.9%

3.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E

NIM

(%

)

Inte

rest In

co

me (B

DT

MM

)

Interest Income NIM

Figure 7: PBL Interest Income & NIM

Sources: Company Annual Report, BRAC EPL Research

10%

7% 7%9%

10%

7% 7%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

4.4%4.5%4.6%4.7%4.8%4.9%5.0%5.1%5.2%5.3%5.4%

Avg

In

flati

on

Rate

Inte

rest

Rate

Sp

read

Interest Rate Spread Average Inflation Rate

0%1%1%2%2%3%3%4%4%5%

NIM

NIM

Page 5: Prime Bank Ltd - Earnings Call - January 2012

Prime Bank Ltd (DSE: PRIMEBANK; Bloomberg: PB:BD)

5

We expect 2011 investment income to grow by 28.7% YoY, vs. -19.4% YoY in

2010. In 9M11, treasury earnings rose on 91% higher treasury investments

(equaling 23% of total deposits). For 2011, we estimate 85% higher treasury

investments YoY. Meanwhile, 2011 portfolio investments income (mainly

dividend income) is expected to grow by 47% YoY from its lower base of 2010.

In contrast, portfolio income declined by 75% in 2010 YoY. This is on account of

decline in trading profit of portfolio shares.

Figure 8: Comparison of Operating Income Composition

Source: BRAC EPL Research (As on 2011 E)

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E

No

n In

tere

st In

co

me (B

DT

MM

)

Net Interest Income

Income from investments in securities/Shares

Commission, Exchange & Brokerage

Other Income

Figure 9: PBL Operating Income Composition

Sources: Company Annual Report, BRAC EPL Research

36% 40%

68%

43% 35% 29%

32% 24%

1%

24% 38% 42%

26%18%

28% 28% 22% 23%

6%18%

3% 6% 5% 6%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Prime Bank National Bank

Islami Bank Bangladesh

Eastern Bank NCC Bank Southeast Bank

Net interest Income Investment Income

Fee Income Other Income

Page 6: Prime Bank Ltd - Earnings Call - January 2012

Prime Bank Ltd (DSE: PRIMEBANK; Bloomberg: PB:BD)

6

Moreover, we estimate 2011 commission income GR of 21% YoY, compared to

2010 GR of 51.67% YoY. The slower growth can be attributable to crowding out

effect of government borrowing which reduces trade financing, slower export

GR YoY, and dried up income from Merchant Bank Subsidiary.

Higher cost-to-income ratio in comparison to historical average

PBL has maintained an average cost-to-income ratio of 34% in 2007-2010. We

expect the cost-to-income ratio to reach 36% by 2013-end. Higher costs are

expected to emerge from an increased focus on human capital development,

e.g. training, increments in salary and benefits, etc.

18%

26%

19%16%

23%20%

18%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E

Investm

en

t t

o T

ota

l Dep

osit

Investm

en

t in

Tre

asu

ry (B

DT

M

M)

Investment in Treasury (BDT MM)

Ratio of Investment to Total Deposit

Figure 11: PBL Commission & Fees Income Growth

Sources: Company Annual Report, BRAC EPL Research

Figure 10: PBL Investment in Treasury

Sources: Company Annual Report, BRAC EPL Research

21% 21% 22%

52%

21% 20% 20%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E

Fees In

co

me G

R (

%)

Fees In

co

me (B

DT

MM

)

Commission and Fees income (BDT MM) GR

Page 7: Prime Bank Ltd - Earnings Call - January 2012

Prime Bank Ltd (DSE: PRIMEBANK; Bloomberg: PB:BD)

7

Projected EPS growth amid macro shocks

We estimate EPS of BDT5.15 for the full financial year of 2011, 10.3% higher

YoY, against 24.5% YoY EPS GR in 2010. Four-year average EPS GR is

45.4% as of 2010. Year 2011 has been severe on the bank sector. High

inflation and government borrowing cut spread income, whereas a 44% stock

market correction eroded 2010 portfolio gains. Moreover, trade finance

commissions are expected to fall on slowdown in Euro-zone demand. PBL’s

projected EPS on a three-year horizon is as follows:

A relatively lower 2011 EPS should enable a higher 2012 EPS growth rate.

Moreover, macroeconomic fundamentals such as inflation rate and currency

risks are expected to ease in 2012, on energy price revisions, lower

government borrowing, and BoP support from the IMF. We forecast a 30% YoY

growth rate for EPS by end of 2012.

2.0%

2.1%

2.2%

2.3%

2.4%

2.5%

2.6%

2.7%

2.8%

30%

31%

32%

33%

34%

35%

36%

37%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E

Co

st to

Assets

(%

)

Co

st to

Inco

me (%

)

Cost to Income Cost to Assets

Figure 12: PBL Operating Efficiency Ratio

Sources: Company Annual Report, BRAC EPL Research

Figure 13: PBL EPS (Fully Diluted)

Sources: Company Annual Report, BRAC EPL Research

1.79 1.60

3.754.67

5.15

6.65

8.05

0

2

4

6

8

10

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E

EP

S (B

DT

)

EPS (BDT)

Page 8: Prime Bank Ltd - Earnings Call - January 2012

Prime Bank Ltd (DSE: PRIMEBANK; Bloomberg: PB:BD)

8

Diverse Earnings Drivers to limit downside on Macro Shocks

Below graphs indicate treasury investments GR to NII correlation coefficient

(CC) of -0.7 vs. inflation to NII correlation of -0.02. Government borrowing more

than inflation cut NII in 4Q11. Meanwhile, inflation to non-interest income CC is

0.17 vs. treasury to non-interest income CC of 0.03. The low CC between

treasury investments GR and non-interest income bears out our thesis that

PBL’s diversified earnings drivers protected their potential downside on high

government borrowing.

.

Figure 14: Inflation and PBL Net Interest Income & Non Interest Income GR

Sources: Company Annual Report, BRAC EPL Research

Figure 15: PBL Treasury Investment, Net Interest Income & Non Interest Income GR

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

NII G

R &

No

n In

tere

st In

co

me G

R

Tre

asu

ry In

co

me G

R

GR in Treasury Investments GR in Net Interest Income

GR in Non Interest Income

Sources: Company Annual Report, BRAC EPL Research

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

NII G

R &

No

n In

tere

st In

co

me G

R

Infl

ati

on

(Y

oY

)

Inflation (YoY) GR in Net Interest Income

GR in Non Interest Income

Page 9: Prime Bank Ltd - Earnings Call - January 2012

Prime Bank Ltd (DSE: PRIMEBANK; Bloomberg: PB:BD)

9

Comfortable capital adequacy ratio and relatively high asset quality

The table below shows the capital adequacy positions of Prime Bank in 2009

and 2010.

The minimum capital adequacy ratio prescribed by Bangladesh Bank is 5% for

Tier-I and 10% for total capital. As on 4Q10, PBL exceeds these minimum ratio

thresholds with a Tier-I capital ratio of 8.6% and total capital ratio of 11.7%.

One of PBL’s key managerial strengths lies in its capacity to maintain below

industry-average NPL ratios. In 2010, NPL ratio was 1.23% in comparison to

1.29% in 2009. In 2010, aggregate loans and advances increased 32.1%, while

classified loans and advances decreased by 19%. We forecast an NPL ratio of

1.15% for 2011, a 6.5% decrease YoY.

Table 1: Capital Position

BDT MM

Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) 2009 2010

Tier I 9,057 15,793

Tier II 3,112 5,692

Total Capital 12,169 21,485

Total Assets including Off Bal Sheet 169,910 242,832

Total Risk Weighted Assets 82,710 183,747

Required Ratio 10% 10%

Required Capital 8,271 18,375

Surplus 3,898 3,110

CAR 9.81% 11.69%

Source: Company Annual Report

9.50% 8.67%10.95%

8.60%

2.00%2.21%

3.76%

3.09%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2007 2008 2009 2010

Tie

r I &

Tie

r II C

ap

ital

Tier I Tier II

Source: Company Annual Report

Figure 16: PBL Tier I & Tier II Capital

Page 10: Prime Bank Ltd - Earnings Call - January 2012

Prime Bank Ltd (DSE: PRIMEBANK; Bloomberg: PB:BD)

10

Relatively lower profitability

We estimate PBL’s Return on Equity (ROE) and Return on Assets (ROA) at

20.5% and 2.3%, respectively, for 2011. Corresponding ratios for 2010 are

24.3% and 2.5%. Declining profitability is a result of the squeezed LDR, interest

rate spread & NIM, relatively lower net yield from treasury investments, a stock

market correction, and relatively lower commission income growth. However,

we expect both ROE and ROA to improve in 2012.

PBL in comparison to leading frontier market banks

A quick look at the largest listed banks in frontier markets such as Vietnam, Sri

Lanka, and Nigeria indicates how PBL fares in relation to its frontier market

peers.

Table 2: Asset Quality

Asset Quality 2009 2010

NPLs to Total Loans and Advances 1.29% 1.23%

Provision for Classified Loans, BDT MM 631 642

Source: Company Annual Report

30.7%

20.9%

31.6%

24.9%

20.5% 21.6% 21.4%

2.0% 1.3% 2.5% 2.6% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E

RO

E &

RO

A

ROE ROA

Figure 17: PBL ROE & ROA

Sources: Company Annual Report, BRAC EPL Research

Table 3: Comparative Analysis of Frontier Market Banks

Frontier Market Banks Country MCAP (USD

MM) P/E P/B ROE ROA

Prime Bank Ltd Bangladesh 414.89 10.20x 1.80x 19.17% 2.13%

Vietcom Bank Vietnam 1,930.90 9.95x 1.71x 22.20% 1.50%

Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank For Industry And Trade

Vietnam 1,387.79 9.83x 1.87x 16.80% 1.10%

Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC Sri Lanka 705.04 11.66x 2.07x 21.00% 2.00%

Hatton National Bank PLC Sri Lanka 469.07 12.55x 1.89x 17.20% 1.70%

First Bank of Nigeria PLC Nigeria 1,648.18 10.30x 0.90x 12.90% 1.50%

Sources: BRAC EPL Research, Capital IQ (As on Dec 31, 2011)

Page 11: Prime Bank Ltd - Earnings Call - January 2012

Prime Bank Ltd (DSE: PRIMEBANK; Bloomberg: PB:BD)

11

PBL has lower P/E and P/B ratios than the median P/E and P/B ratios for the

above six banks. PBL P/E (10.20x) is lower than the median P/E (10.25x), while

PBL P/B (1.80x) is lower than the median P/B (1.84x). Profitability ratios RoE

and RoA however are lower PBL than the median of the above group. Lower

valuation multiples than the median but lower profitability ratios as well indicates

markets’ consensus to reward higher profitability with higher price multiples and

vice versa.

Our rating and target price Considering the estimated EPS of BDT 6.65 and BVPS of BDT 33.80 for the

year ending December 2012, we set a target price of BDT 58.0 per share with

an OUTPERFORM rating. This implies 29% total return on the current share

price of BDT 45.20 (as on 2nd January 2012).

Prime Bank (Bangladesh)

Vietcom Bank (Vietnam)

Vietnam Joint Stock Bank

(Vietnam)

Commercial Bank of

Ceylon (Sri Lanka)

First Bank of Nigeria

(Nigeria)

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

24%

26%

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

RO

E (%

)

ROA (%) (Size of bubble represents Volume/MCAP)

Figure 18: Comparative Analysis of Volume to MCAP

Sources: BRAC EPL Research, Capital IQ (As on Dec 31, 2011)

Page 12: Prime Bank Ltd - Earnings Call - January 2012

Prime Bank Ltd (DSE: PRIMEBANK; Bloomberg: PB:BD)

12

Balance Sheet, MM BDT 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E

Property & Assets:

Cash 7,199.9 10,252.3 9,576.9 16,746.2 17,447.0 25,184.2

Balance with Other Banks & F.I 2,042.6 833.9 1,397.0 1,746.2 1,833.5 1,925.2

Money at call .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0

Investment 23,103.1 19,933.9 22,198.5 39,779.6 41,888.9 46,013.2

Loan & Advance 75,602.5 89,946.0 118,837.3 133,097.8 173,027.1 216,283.9

Fixed Assets 1,380.1 1,577.9 1,743.7 4,010.4 5,614.6 6,176.0

Other Assets 1,188.5 2,440.8 1,779.5 2,580.2 3,612.3 4,154.1

Total Assets 110,516.6 124,984.7 155,532.8 197,960.5 243,423.3 299,736.7

Liabilities & Equities:

Liabilities:

Borrowing from other banks, F.I 11,397.9 86.5 5,214.5 6,778.8 7,456.7 7,829.6

Deposits 88,083.1 107,077.3 124,799.3 159,743.1 198,081.5 245,621.0

Other Liability 4,327.4 6,024.2 8,052.4 9,662.9 11,595.4 13,914.5

Total Liabilities 103,808.4 113,188.0 138,066.2 176,184.8 217,133.6 267,365.1

Shareholder's Equity: 6,708.2 11,796.7 17,466.6 21,775.7 26,289.7 32,371.6

Total Liabilities & Equities 110,516.6 124,984.7 155,532.8 197,960.5 243,423.3 299,736.7

Income Statement, MM BDT 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E

Interest/Investment Income 9,107.9 10,881.2 12,695.4 17,217.8 20,440.5 25,549.5

Interest/profit paid on deposit 7,129.6 8,428.7 8,047.1 12,158.0 14,696.4 18,121.7

Net Interest Income 1,978.3 2,452.5 4,648.3 5,059.8 5,744.1 7,427.8

Income from investments 1,743.7 3,372.5 2,717.5 3,498.2 4,610.4 4,961.3

Commission, Excng & Brok 1,469.0 1,792.2 2,718.2 3,289.0 3,946.8 4,736.2

Other Income 628.3 673.8 708.5 1,033.1 919.8 957.9

Total Operating Income 5,819.2 8,290.9 10,792.5 12,880.1 15,221.2 18,083.2

Operating Expense 1,954.9 2,934.1 3,769.7 4,636.8 5,479.6 6,510.0

Profit Before Provision 3,864.4 5,356.8 7,022.8 8,243.3 9,741.6 11,573.3

Provision 1,383.5 624.0 551.0 1,184.6 951.6 937.2

Pre-Tax Profit 2,480.9 4,732.8 6,471.7 7,058.7 8,789.9 10,636.1

Tax 1,231.9 1,805.8 2,829.1 3,042.3 3,603.9 4,355.5

Profit After Tax 1,249.0 2,927.0 3,642.7 4,016.4 5,186.0 6,280.6

2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E

Total Assets Growth 48.95% 13.09% 24.44% 48.95% 48.95% 48.95%

L & A Growth 30.84% 18.97% 32.12% 12.00% 30.00% 25.00%

Deposit Growth 24.86% 21.56% 16.55% 28.00% 24.00% 24.00%

EPS GR -10.71% 134.35% 24.45% 10.26% 29.12% 21.11%

Page 13: Prime Bank Ltd - Earnings Call - January 2012

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Prime Bank Ltd (DSE: PRIMEBANK; Bloomberg: PB:BD)

Institutional Sales and Trading

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