primes v3 (draft) comparison 25 th may 2007 projections expert panel meeting melanie hobson
TRANSCRIPT
PRIMES v3 (draft) comparison
25th May 2007 projections expert panel meeting
Melanie Hobson
Overview of presentation
• Comparison of how the new draft PRIMES (v3) energy forecasts for the UK compare with the UK’s own forecasts
• Aim is to encourage Countries to carry out their own comparisons. • Important that Countries are happy with the results• UK’s energy forecasts – current status
Concerns
• Power station sector• Overall trends• Domestic• Transport• Industry
Power stations - coal
Actual and projected coal consumption by power stations
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
MT
OE coal (UK)
coal (primes)
Power stations – natural gas
Actual and projected natural gas consumption by power stations
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
MT
OE natural gas (UK)
natural gas (primes)
Domestic sector - coal
Actual and projected coal consumption in the domestic sector
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
KT
OE
UK
Primes
Industrial sector - gas
Actual and projected gas consumption in the industrial sector
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
KT
OE
UK
Primes
Transport sector
Actual and projected diesel and gasoline consumption
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
KT
OE
diesel oil (UK)
diesel oil (primes)
gasoline (UK)
gasoline (primes)
Conclusions
• Encourage Countries to compare their own energy forecasts with the new version of PRIMES.
• That the methodology is obtained for converting between the Eurostat data and data in PRIMES
• That more of a detailed breakdown by sector is provided for PRIMES by fuel type – for example transport.