priori data - app market trends & 2016 outlook
TRANSCRIPT
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APP MARKET TRENDS & 2016 OUTLOOKApp Promotion Summit, BerlinPatrick KanePRIORI DATAFounder & CEO@pdkane
www.prioridata.com
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Agenda1. Priori Data Background2. State of the (App) Union3. 2016 Outlook
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1.PRIORI DATA BACKGROUND
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Me: Trying to Change the Status Quo in Mobile App Market Data
Nationality: US, now camped in an Eastern American outpost (Berlin)
Twittering: @pdkane & @prioridata
Gamer?: Lots of hours. Lots of parent frustration. I now sneak in 30mins a day on mobile or build cities (Skylines) during sleepless nights
Before going “Start-up”: I analyzed and invested in information companies, mostly in the healthcare space
Talked to: hundreds of publishers over the past 2 years, plus, yes, just about as many VCs
Patrick KaneFounder / CEO
Ex.
PRIORI DATA BACKGROUND
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Confidential 5
OUR MISSION
Our mission is to crowdsource the world’s largest panel of mobile app data.
We want to deliver reliable statistics on any app, publisher and market trend
WE ANALYZEAPP STORES
Founded June 2013International team of 22
WIR SINDEIN BERLINER
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PRIORI DATA BACKGROUNDUs: Powerful App Store Intelligence at a Better Value
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Public Data crawled from
the app stores
Proprietary Data shared
by ourpartners
Download and revenue estimates for all apps,
publishers, and categories across 57 countries
MARKET TRENDS
COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE
NEWCOMER DETECTION
CUSTOMIZED WATCHLISTS
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Over 10,000 Apps Have Joined Our Free Data Sharing Network
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PRIORI DATA BACKGROUND
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2.STATE OF THE (APP) UNION
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STATE OF THE (APP) UNIONMobile Is Only Working For The Top 1%
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Supply / Demand Imbalance
Broken Discovery
Market Concentration
The Problem in 3 Steps:
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STATE OF THE (APP) UNIONIncreased App Supply & Flat App Demand = More Competition
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Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
May June July
Augus
tSep Oct
75%80%85%90%95%
100%105%110%115%120%125%
Avg. Monthly Downloads Avg. # of Apps
-1%
+18%
Indexed Supply & Demand • Consumer demand has flatlined
• 500 new apps and 100 new publishers enter the store every day!
• Newcomers (and their apps) apps are as a rule better funded and more experiencedBased on Apple App Store. Since Sep. 2014
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STATE OF THE (APP) UNIONTop Chart Turnover (& Discovery) Offer Only Fleeting Success
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Average Length of Stay per New App
>2 weeks 1-2 weeks <1 week one day0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
3%7%
41%
49%
1% 3%
71%
25%
Average Free App Average Paid App
• 50% of new free apps are in and out of the charts within 1 day, and 90% within 1 week.
• Only 4% of new apps last more than 2 weeks in the charts. That’s 350 a month, globally.
Based on Apple Top 200 Charts. „New“ designates first-time appearance in the top chart, not age of the app.
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STATE OF THE (APP) UNIONApps Represent a “Winner Takes All” Market
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Share of Market to Top Publishers • 100 companies command ~70% of store downloads and ~60% of store revenue
• There are over 450k companies publishing apps today, Top 100 = 0.01%
% of Total Store Down-loads
% of Total Store Revenue0%
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
72%59%
9%
8%
5%
5%
14%28%
Top 100 101-200201-300 Everyone Else
Based on Apple App Store in June 2015. Global Estimates.
% of Downloads % of Revenue
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STATE OF THE (APP) UNIONAnd Where is That Market Concentration, well, Concretrated?
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Top 10 Free Apps on iOS based on Monthly Downloads (Globally)
Category
Action Games
Strategy Games
Action Games
RPG Games
Sim. Games
Puzzle Games
Arcade Games
Sim. Games
Action Games
RPG Games
10 out of 10
Games
2013
0 out of 10
Games
2014 Category
Social Networking
Social Networking
Photo & Video
Social Networking
Finance
Photo & Video
Photo & Video
Entertainment
Lifestyle
Music
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STATE OF THE (APP) UNIONAnd Where is That Market Concentration, well, Concretrated?
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0 out of 10
Games
2014 Category
Social Networking
Social Networking
Photo & Video
Social Networking
Finance
Photo & Video
Photo & Video
Entertainment
Lifestyle
Music
?
2015
Top 10 Free Apps on iOS based on Monthly Downloads (Globally)
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STATE OF THE (APP) UNIONAnd Where is That Market Concentration, well, Concretrated?
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2 out of 10
Games
2015 App Category
Social Networking
Photo & Video
Social Networking
Social Networking
Photo & Video
Social Networking
Adventure Games
Education
Health & Fitness
Strategy Games
• 50% exact overlap with 2014
• 60% are Apple, Google, and Facebook Published
• Both gaming titles are franchises/classics
• The two you don’t recognize are Chinese
Top 10 Free Apps on iOS based on Monthly Downloads (Globally)
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STATE OF THE (APP) UNIONWhat Others Say
“With over 2MM apps across the various mobile app stores, discoverability is close to impossible. User acquisition strategies are just not enough anymore, and it’s been a while since burst campaigns were viable. When looking at all these parameters, one question comes to mind: has the app gold rush finished?”
Michael Velkes, VP of Marketing at Plamee Games
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Published on Mobile Dev Memo
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3.2016 OUTLOOK
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2016 OUTLOOKSo Has the App Gold Rush Finished?
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2016 OUTLOOKSo Has the App Gold Rush Finished?
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Doubtful.
But 2016 will change the frame of the discussion in a major way
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Mobile Web vs. Mobile Apps
The Discussion Since 20082016 OUTLOOK
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Mobile Web vs. Mobile Apps
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^andThe Discussion in 20162016 OUTLOOK
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2016 OUTLOOKFred Wilson’s Summary
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“the mobile web is top of funnel, and mobile apps bottom
of funnel” “The mobile web is the window of your store. Users window shop on your mobile website. Getting them to download and install and use your mobile app is like getting them to come into the store”.
http://avc.com/2015/09/mobile-web-is-top-of-funnel-mobile-app-is-bottom-of-funnel/
- Fred Wilson
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2016 OUTLOOKThe Optimal User Funnel For Marketers is a Mixture Of Web & App
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“web search (discovery) + deep links (conversion) + rich apps (engagement) + push notifications (retention)”
Patrick Kane
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So why does this notion of web vs. apps exist in the
first place?
Web and Apps are not Mutually Exclusive2016 OUTLOOK
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2016 OUTLOOKThe Dominant App Stores Have Different Worldviews
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“this apps vs. browser argument is so charged partly because it’s a surrogate for Apple’s and Google’s competing visions for the mobile internet”
Greg Sterling – Editor @Search Engine Land
http://marketingland.com/morgan-stanley-no-apps-arent-winning-the-mobile-browser-is-144303
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2016 OUTLOOK2016 Will See Big Changes to The Store Status Quo Impacting UA
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iOS9 and Ad Blockers
Google App Streaming
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2016 OUTLOOKWrapping Up
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• Supply/demand imbalance, broken discovery, and market concentration pose fundamental challenges to the vast majority of publishers
• The “gold rush” is not over, but outperformers will look for synergies and consumer patterns that span across “web” and “apps”
• 2016 is shaping up to be a year where the major platforms take firm stands on their view of mobile – it’s going to be a wild ride!
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Patrick KaneFounder /CEO
Twitter @pdkaneEmail me directly for a copy of this presentation.