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properties of discrete-time Markov chains
I until:
P ≥ 0.92(
¬illegal U goal
)I bounded until:
P≥ 0.92(
¬illegal U≤137 goal
)
I eventually:
P≥ 0.92(
true U
=137
goal
)
≡
P≥ 0.92(
♦
=137
goal
)
I always:
P≥ 0.92(
� goal
)
≡
P≤ 0.08(
¬♦¬goal
)
I nested:
P≥ 0.92(
¬illegal U
P≥ 0.9999
(�
=13
goal
)
)
12
/ department of mathematics and computer science 3/48
properties of discrete-time Markov chains
I until:
P≥ 0.92(
¬illegal U goal
)
I bounded until:
P≥ 0.92(
¬illegal U≤137 goal
)
I eventually:
P≥ 0.92(
true U=137 goal
)
≡
P≥ 0.92(
♦=137 goal
)
I always:
P≥ 0.92(
� goal
)
≡
P≤ 0.08(
¬♦¬goal
)
I nested:
P≥ 0.92(
¬illegal U
P≥ 0.9999
(�=13goal
)
)
12
/ department of mathematics and computer science 3/48
properties of discrete-time Markov chains
I until: P≥ 0.92(¬illegal U goal
)I bounded until: P≥ 0.92
(¬illegal U≤137 goal
)I eventually: P≥ 0.92
(true U=137 goal
)≡ P≥ 0.92
(♦=137 goal
)I always: P≥ 0.92
(� goal
)≡ P≤ 0.08
(¬♦¬goal
)I nested: P≥ 0.92
(¬illegal U P≥ 0.9999
(�=13goal
) )
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properties of continuous-time Markov chains
I P≥ 0.92(¬illegal U≤133.4 goal
)I P≥ 0.92
(¬illegal U[61.1,133.4] goal
)
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Prism: a probabilistic modelchecker
I discrete-time and continuous-time Markov chainsI reactive module-type of modelling languageI specifications in PCTL and CSLI see http://www.prismmodelchecker.org
Kwiatkowska et al., Proc. QEST (2004)
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a Prism model
module Solution
Na=0, Cl=0, NaCl=50;
[ ] Na > 0 & Cl > 0 -> Kf∗Na∗Cl :
Na’=Na-1 & Cl’=Cl-1 & NaCl’=NaCl+1;
[ ] NaCl > 0 -> Kb∗NaCl :
Na’=Na+1 & Cl’=Cl+1 & NaCl’=NaCl-1;
endmodule
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CSL properties
I ’init’ ⇒ �0.98 (Na = Cl ) (valid for Kf=0.01,Kb=1)
levels of Na and Cl are always the same
I ’init’ ⇒ ♦ (Na > NaCl ) (valid for Kf=0.01,Kb=1)
at some point in time the Na level will exceed that of NaCl
I ’init’ ⇒ ♦≤10 (Na > NaCl ) (not valid for Kf=0.01,Kb=1)
the same but within 10 time units
I ’init’ ⇒ ♦≤20 (Na > NaCl ) (valid for Kf=0.01,Kb=1)
again the same but now within 20 time units
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Example: two process mutual exclusion
nondeterministic
module M1x : [0..2] init 0;
[] x=0 -> 0.8:(x’=0) + 0.2:(x’=1);[] x=1 & y!=2 -> (x’=2);[] x=2 -> 0.5:(x’=2) + 0.5:(x’=0);
endmodule
module M2y : [0..2] init 0;
[] y=0 -> 0.8:(y’=0) + 0.2:(y’=1);[] y=1 & x!=2 -> (y’=2);[] y=2 -> 0.5:(y’=2) + 0.5:(y’=0);
endmodule
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Example: N-place queue and server
ctmc
const int N = 10;const double mu = 1/10, lambda = 1/2, gamma = 1/3;
module queueq : [0..N];
[] q<N -> mu:(q’=q+1);[] q=N -> mu:(q’=q);[serve] q>0 -> lambda:(q’=q-1);
endmodule
module servers : [0..1];
[serve] s=0 -> 1:(s’=1);[] s=1 -> gamma:(s’=0);
endmodule
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circadian clock
ctmcconst int N=1000000;const double k;
module activator_gene
da : [0..1] init 1;da_a : [0..1];
[transc_da] da=1 -> da : true;[transc_da_a] da_a=1 -> da_a : true;[bind_a] da=1 & da_a=0 -> da : (da’=0) & (da_a’=1);[rel_a] da=0 & da_a=1 -> da_a : (da’=1) & (da_a’=0);
endmodule
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activator modules
module activator_mRNAma : [0..N]; // amount of activator mRNA
[transc_da] ma<N -> ma’=ma+1;[transc_da_a] ma<N -> ma’=ma+1;[transl_a] ma>0 -> ma : true;[deg_ma] ma>0 -> ma : ma’=ma-1;
endmodule
module activator_proteina : [0..N]; // amount of activator protein
[transl_a] a<N -> a’=a+1;[bind_a] a>0 -> a : a’=a-1;[bind_r] a>0 -> a : a’=a-1;[rel_a] a<N -> a’=a+1;[rel_r] a<N -> a’=a+1;[deg_a] a>0 -> a : a’=a-1;[deactive] a>0 -> a : a’=a-1;
endmodule
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repressor modules// rename activator gene modulemodule repressor_gene =
activator_gene[da=dr, da_a=dr_a, bind_a=bind_r, rel_a=rel_r,transc_da=transc_dr, transc_da_a=transc_dr_a]
endmodule
// rename activator mRNA modulemodule repressor_mRNA =
activator_mRNA[ma=mr, transl_a=transl_r, transc_da=transc_dr,transc_da_a=transc_dr_a, deg_ma=deg_mr]
endmodule
module repressor_proteinr : [0..N];
[transl_r] r<N -> (r’=r+1);[deg_r] r>0 -> r : (r’=r-1);[deactive] r>0 -> r : (r’=r-1);[deg_c] r<N -> (r’=r+1);
endmodule
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complexes and rates
module inactive_proteinc : [0..N]; // amount of inactivated protein
[deactive] c<N -> (c’=c+1);[deg_c] c>0 -> c : (c’=c-1);
endmodule
module rates[transc_da] true -> k*50 : true;[transc_da_a] true -> k*500 : true;[transc_dr] true -> k*0.01 : true;[transc_dr_a] true -> k*50 : true;[transl_a] true -> 50 : true;[transl_r] true -> 5 : true;[bind_a] true -> 1 : true;[bind_r] true -> 1 : true;[deactive] true -> 2 : true;...
endmodule
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reward structure
const double T;
rewards "activated_protein"true : a;endrewards
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simulation
single run
average over 20 runs
number of activator proteins over time
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simulation
single run average over 20 runs
number of activator proteins over time
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aa-tRNA competition
I Fluitt, Pienaar and ViljoenComputational Biology and Chemistry 31 (2007) 335–346
I building on work of Rodnina c.s.codon CUC with Leu cognate and Phe near-cognate
I simplifications:• constant tRNA pool• no ribosome-ribosome interaction• constants not measured are not rate limiting
I simulation effort: correlation with competition
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transcription & translation
protein
mRNA
DNA
mRNA: string of codons protein: string of amino acids
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codon & anticodon
anticodon
aminoacid
tRNA
codonmRNA
E. coli: 64 codons, 48 aa-tRNAs/anticodons, 20 amino acids
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aa-tRNA competition
I aa-tRNAs compete for matching with codon
I aa-tRNAs classified ascognate, near-cognate, or non-cognate
I fidilty of translation
• insertion errorwrong amino acid added to nascent chain
• insertion timetime for successful elongation, amount of delay
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probabilistic automaton
0.23 / 80167 / 46
60 / FAST
260 / 0.40190
85
1
0
2 3
5
4 6 8arrival
FAST
FAST
cognate and near-cognate rates differ
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probabilistic automaton
0.23 / 80167 / 46
60 / FAST
260 / 0.40190
85
1
0
2 3
5
4 6 8arrival
FAST
FAST
cognate and near-cognate rates differ
arrival rate depends on concentration
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Prism representation
// initial binding[ ] (s=1) -> k1f * c_cogn : (s’=2) & (cogn’=true) ;[ ] (s=1) -> k1f * c_near : (s’=2) & (near’=true) ;[ ] (s=1) -> k1f * c_nonc : (s’=2) & (nonc’=true) ;
// dissociation[ ] (s=2) & ( cogn | near ) -> k2b :
(s’=0) & (cogn’=false) & (near’=false) ;[ ] (s=2) & nonc -> k2bx : (s’=1) & (nonc’=false) ;
// codon recognition[ ] (s=2) & ( cogn | near ) -> k2f : (s’=3) ;[ ] (s=3) & cogn -> k3bc : (s’=2) ;[ ] (s=3) & near -> k3bn : (s’=2) ;
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Prism representation (cont.)
// rejection[ ] (s=4) & cogn -> k4rc : (s’=5) & (cogn’=false) ;[ ] (s=4) & near -> k4rn : (s’=5) & (near’=false) ;
// accommodation, peptidyl transfer[ ] (s=4) & cogn -> k4fc : (s’=6) ;[ ] (s=4) & near -> k4fn : (s’=6) ;
// no entrance, re-entrance at state 1[ ] (s=0) -> FAST : (s’=1) ;// rejection, re-entrance at state 1[ ] (s=5) -> FAST : (s’=1) ;// elongation[ ] (s=8) -> FAST : (s’=8) ;
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matching for E. coliEscherichia coli has for
I codon AAU coding amino acid Asparagine has
• 1 cognate anticodons GUU• 1 near-cognate anticodon UUU• 44 non-cognate anticodons
I codon CUC coding amino acid Leucine has
• 1 cognate anticodon GAG• 4 near-cognate anticodons GUG, CAG, UAG, GGG• 41 non-cognate anticodons
I codon AUC coding amino acid Isoleucine has
• 1 cognate anticodon GAG• 8 near-cognate anticodons GUU, CAU, . . .• 37 non-cognate anticodons
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insertion error
conditional cognate probability for success
P=?[ (s!=0 & s!=5)U(s=8) {(s=2)&cogn} ]
conditional near-cognate probability for success
P=?[ (s!=0 & s!=5)U(s=8) {(s=2)&near} ]
0.23 / 80167 / 46
60 / FAST
260 / 0.40190
85
1
0
2 3
5
4 6 8arrival
FAST
FAST
success for a cognate pcs = 0.508
success for a near-cognate pns = 0.484 · 10−4
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insertion error (cont.)
cognate probability for success: proper elongation
P=?[ true U((s=8)&cogn) ]
near-cognate probability for success: insertion error
P=?[ true U((s=8)&near) ]
0.23 / 80167 / 46
60 / FAST
260 / 0.40190
85
1
0
2 3
5
4 6 8arrival
FAST
FAST
error probability depends on concentrations
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insertion error (cont.)
strong correlation insertion errors and ratio near-cognates/cognates
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insertion error (cont.)
strong correlation insertion errors and ratio near-cognates/cognates
probability for erroneous insertion
ratio n
ear−
cognate
/ c
ognate
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insertion error (cont.)
strong correlation insertion errors and ratio near-cognates/cognates
P(error) =pn
s · (fn/tot)
pcs · (fc/tot) + pn
s · (fn/tot)
≈pn
s · fn
pcs · fc
∼fn
fc
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insertion times
average exit times
e.g., dissociation or rejection of near-cognate
R=?[F((s=0)|(s=5)){(s=2)&near}]
0.23 / 80260 / 0.40
1901
0
2 3
5
4 6 8arrival
FAST
FAST
60+67 FAST65 /
success/failure for cognate T cs = 0.03182, T c
f = 9.342 · 10−3
success/failure for near-cognate T ns = 3.251, T n
f = 0.3914
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insertion times (cont.)
strong correlation insertion times and ratio near-cognates/cognates
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insertion times (cont.)
strong correlation insertion times and ratio near-cognates/cognates
average insertion time
ratio (
pseudo−
cognate
+ n
ear−
cognate
) / cognate
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insertion times (cont.)
strong correlation insertion times and ratio near-cognates/cognates
Tins =∑
∞
i=0 (pcf )
ipcs · ((delay for i + 1 cognates) + T c
s )
=∑
∞
i=0 (pcf )
ipcs ·
(i · (T c
f +fn
fcT n
f +fx
fcT x
f ) + T cs
)≈
fn
fcpc
s Tnf∑
∞
i=0 i (pcf )
i
∼fn
fc