probabilistic activity time
DESCRIPTION
-TRANSCRIPT
Probabilistic Activity TimesProbabilistic Time Estimates
Carrine Kezia Aulia :: 102183022
• Single time estimates
• Didn’t allow for any variation
• AT treated as if they are known for certain
COMPARISON CPM AND PERTREVIEW
• Multiple time estimates
• Allow for any variation
• AT treated as probabilistic
PERT uses probabilistic activity times
CPM PERT
Approach to estimating activity times
WHAT IS PROBABILISTIC ACTIVITY TIMES?What’s it all about?
• Completion time estimates can be estimated using the
Three Time Estimate Three Time Estimate approachapproach
• In this approach, three time estimates are required for each activity
MOST LIKELY TIME (m)
THREE TIME ESTIMATES
OPTIMISTIC TIME (a)
PESSIMISTIC TIME (b)
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most frequently occur if the activity were repeated many times
the shortest possible time to complete the activity if everything went right
the longest possible time to complete the activity if everything went wrong
with THREE TIME estimates, the activity completion timecan be approximated by a BETA DISTRIBUTION
BETA DISTRIBUTION
BETA DISTRIBUTIONS CAN COME IN A VARIETY OF SHAPES :
FORMULAMEAN AND VARIANCE
a + 4m + b
6
b - a
6
2
mean (expected time)
variance σ2
t
MOST LIKELY TIME (m)
OPTIMISTIC TIME (a)
PESSIMISTIC TIME (b)
EXAMPLEA PROJECT NETWORK WITH PROBABILISTIC TIME ESTIMATE
EXAMPLEACTIVITY TIME ESTIMATES
a + 4m + b
6
b - a
6
2
t σ2
EXAMPLEACTIVITY EARLIEST AND LATEST TIMES AND SLACK
EXAMPLEACTIVITY EARLIEST AND LATEST TIMES AND SLACK
0
8
8 8
5
13
0
6
6
3
0 3
3
6 9
4
3 7
2
3 5
7
9 16
4
9 13
4
13 17
9
16 25
2516
2521
2116
169
1612
1614
95
52
9660
91
EXPECTED TIME : 25CRITICAL PATH :2-5-8-11
EXAMPLEACTIVITY EARLIEST AND LATEST TIMES AND SLACK
25WEEKS
6,89WEEKS
EXAMPLEPROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS OF THE PROJECT NETWORK
ADD ALL THE σ2 OFF THE CRITICAL PATH
SD
what does this formula means?what does these numbers mean?
EXAMPLEPROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS OF THE PROJECT NETWORK
25WEEKS
6,89WEEKS
2,62WEEKS
EXPECTED TIME
μ
σ2 σ
EXAMPLEPROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS OF THE PROJECT NETWORK
25WEEKS
EXPECTED TIME
μ
30WEEKS
PROPOSED PROJECT TIME
X WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL BE READY BY THAT
TIME?
WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL BE READY BY THAT
TIME?
EXAMPLEPROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS OF THE PROJECT NETWORK
Z =X – μ
σ
30WEEKS
25WEEKS
2.62
-= 1.911.91
EXAMPLEACTIVITY EARLIEST AND LATEST TIMES AND SLACK
z = 1.91
EXAMPLEACTIVITY EARLIEST AND LATEST TIMES AND SLACK
EXAMPLEACTIVITY EARLIEST AND LATEST TIMES AND SLACK
0.9719probability of completing
the project in 30 days
0.9719probability of completing
the project in 30 days
EXAMPLEACTIVITY EARLIEST AND LATEST TIMES AND SLACK
www.measuringusability.com
EXAMPLEACTIVITY EARLIEST AND LATEST TIMES AND SLACK
z = 1.91
97.19 %