Probabilistic Reliability AssessmentLOLE Best Practices Meeting

Austin, Texas November 7-8, 2011

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Drivers

• Successful execution of a long-term probabilistic-based reliability assessment is a significant step forward in determining future reliability of the bulk power system in North America. – ERO

• This assessment provides a common set of probabilistic reliability indices and probabilistic-based work products that can be used to supplement the NERC Long-Term Reliability Assessment’s resource adequacy assessment – Reliability Assessment Improvement Plan.

• FERC directs NERC to develop a plan to address capacity and energy in its reliability assessment methodology and a timeline for executing the plan, and submit the plan and timeline as part of the 2011 LTRA. FERC requires NERC to file its preliminary plan and timeline in an informational filing six months from the date of this order (9/16/2010) – FERC comments to ERO Three-year assessment

• Object is to compare trends within a region, not to compare across regions

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High Level Implementation Plan

• Near term – 2011 Pilot– Pilot Probabilistic Assessment for those that have the capability

– MRAs (Metric Reporting Areas) that do not currently have the modeling capability will acquire or access a model to be used for their probability analysis.

• Long term – 2012 and later– NERC Planning Committee must decide if and how to proceed after

reviewing the results of the 2011 Pilot

– Original design was to have complete coverage of all NERC MRAs

– Correspondence to LTRA still uncertain

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Pilot Status by Area

Participant MRAs Status as of Oct. 26

Manitoba Manitoba Complete

MISO Complete

PJM Complete

SERC North CompleteEast

Southeast

West

SPP Analysis Ongoing

FRCC FRCC Complete

NPCC New England Study Complete

Second draft report delayedNew York

Maritimes

Ontario

Quebec

ERCOT ?

WECC Analysis Delayed

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Forecast Planning Reserve Margins

• There are some reporting inconsistencies to work out:

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

ProbA 2011 LTRA 2010 ProbA 2014 LTRA 2014

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2011 Forecast Operable Reserve Margins

• RIS recommended revision to reserve margin

• All resources derated to capacity expected at peak (derate by EFOR)

FRCCManitoba Hydro

MISOSERC -North

SERC -East

SERC -Southea

st

SERC -West

PJMNPCC -

QBNPCC -

MTNPCC -

NENPCC -

NYNPCC -

ON

Planning RM 33% 18% 40% 16% 19% 32% 57% 19% 9% 28% 11% 33% 33%

Operable RM 29% 16% 30% 9% 12% 24% 47% 10% 8% 23% 6% 26% 25%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

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Loss of Load Hours (LOLH)

• Scale represents one 5-hour outage once every 10 years

• Results are all essentially zero

FRCCManitoba Hydro

MISOSERC -North

SERC -East

SERC -Southea

st

SERC -West

PJMNPCC -

QBNPCC -

MTNPCC -

NENPCC -

NYNPCC -

ON

2011 0.000 0.000 0.009 0.001 0.007 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.103 0.000 0.000

2014 0.000 0.000 0.054 0.003 0.004 0.000 0.000 0.012 0.003 0.000 0.003 0.000 0.000

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

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Expected Unserved Energy (EUE)

• Note the scale! With enough magnification…

FRCCManitoba Hydro

MISOSERC -North

SERC -East

SERC -Southea

st

SERC -West

PJMNPCC -

QBNPCC -

MTNPCC -

NENPCC -

NYNPCC -

ON

2011 0.000 0.000 9.000 0.500 5.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.000 63.400 0.000 0.000

2014 0.000 0.000 67.200 1.700 3.500 0.000 0.000 0.014 0.700 0.000 1.500 0.000 0.000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

MW

h

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Expected Unserved Energy (EUE)

• A different scale; note the different impacts on MISO versus NE

FRCCManitoba Hydro

MISOSERC -North

SERC -East

SERC -Southea

st

SERC -West

PJMNPCC -

QBNPCC -

MTNPCC -

NENPCC -

NYNPCC -

ON

2011 0.000 0.000 0.018 0.002 0.023 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.451 0.000 0.000

2014 0.000 0.000 0.140 0.007 0.015 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.000 0.010 0.000 0.000

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

Millio

nth

s;

MW

h/T

Wh

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ProbA Pilot Scedule

Mar. 25, 2011 Issue letter requesting participation in 2011 Pilot.

Apr. 5, 2011 Intro Webinar - field questions by potential participants.

Apr. 21, 2011 Pilot participation opt-in date.

May 27, 2011 Partial drafts of ProbA Reports due

June 3, 2011 Partial drafts of ProbA Reports circulated amongst participants.

July 5, 2011 Conference call amongst ProbA Pilot participants.

Oct. 3, 2011 Draft ProbA Reports due

Oct. 12-13, 2011 RAS Update

Nov. 7-8, 2011 ProbA Pilot Meeting; LOLEWG Meeting

Jan. 17, 2012 Pilot ProbA Reports due

Late Feb. 2012 Nee RIS completes Pilot review

Mar. 2012 PC Meeting Review Pilot report

June 2012 PC Meeting Approve Pilot report

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Outstanding Issues

• Pilot What form should the report take

Content of the overall report

Review process on the way to the Planning Committee

How prescriptive to be about the individual report style

Comparison to LTRA

• 2012 Assessment How to complete the MRA representation

Which LTRA dataset—2011 or 2012

What years to study

Link with LTRA

Schedule

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Questions?