Problem Solving / Decision Making Chapter 6 - 1

Problem Solving /Decision Making

Kepner-TregoeThe New Rational Manager

Chapter 6

Problem Solving / Decision Making Chapter 6 - 2

Chapter 6 Contents Future Events and Their

Consequences The Basic Activities A Different Kind of Process When to Use Problem (Opportunity)

Analysis

Problem Solving / Decision Making Chapter 6 - 3

The Future Looking into the future helps to identify

and assess threats and opportunities. The first step in a Potential Problem

(Opportunity) Analysis is to feel concern about the future of some project, situation, or event.

Only when managers share a common method can this activity be effective.

Problem Solving / Decision Making Chapter 6 - 4

Potential Problem (Opportunity) Analysis

“PP(O)A is the pattern of thinking that enables us to change and improve the future; rather than allow the future to arrive entirely on its own terms.”

PP(O)A is a voluntary act of prudence PP(O)A is used less often and less

thoroughly than the other Rational Processes

Problem Solving / Decision Making Chapter 6 - 5

Potential Problem (Opportunity) Analysis

“Success and survival depend on being able to anticipate change, to avoid being swallowed up by its negative effects, and to seize the benefits it offers.”

PP(O)A is a systematic process for uncovering and dealing with potential problems and opportunities that are reasonably likely to occur

Problem Solving / Decision Making Chapter 6 - 6

PP(O)A Basic Questions Potential Problems

Focus on undesirable deviations What could go wrong? What can we do about it now?

Potential Opportunities Focus on desirable deviations What could go better than expected? What can we do now to make the most of it?

Problem Solving / Decision Making Chapter 6 - 7

Problems vs Opportunities

Potential Problem Analysis and Potential Opportunity Analysis may be conducted on the same action.

Both are future oriented Potential Problem Analysis and

Potential Opportunity Analysis should be done separately.

Problem Solving / Decision Making Chapter 6 - 8

PP(O)A Techniques State the action List Potential Problems (Opportunities) Consider causes for the Potential

Problems (Opportunities) Take actions to address the causes Prepare actions to reduce the effects Set triggers for contingent actions

Problem Solving / Decision Making Chapter 6 - 9

PP(O)A vs Adverse Consequences in DA

Potential Adverse Consequences of alternatives is an identification activity to allow us to arrive at a balanced choice among alternatives under risk.

PP(O)A is action plan; we are going to do something PP(O)A might naturally be done after DA

on the adverse consequences of the best balanced choice.

Problem Solving / Decision Making Chapter 6 - 10

Case Study: Planning an Inauguration

Review the Inauguration case statement, W 145-146, B 144

In a complex action, there are tremendous amounts of detail.

Nobody can deal with every possible problem

We must be priority oriented not detail oriented

Problem Solving / Decision Making Chapter 6 - 11

PP(O)A List of Problems

Bad weather disruptions Program VIPs might not attend Facilities may be inadequate Guests might not know where to

go or what to do The site could be untidy

Problem Solving / Decision Making Chapter 6 - 12

Problems: What to Look For

Anything that has never been done before

Anything with overlapping responsibility

Tight deadlines Activities carried out at a long

distance

Problem Solving / Decision Making Chapter 6 - 13

Consider Causes

Weather: heavy afternoon thunderstorms

VIP no-shows: competing priorities and forgotten schedules

Facilities: parking, restrooms, fountains, seating, trash

ETC….

Problem Solving / Decision Making Chapter 6 - 14

Take Actions to Address Causes

Weather: plan for morning VIP no-shows: personal contacts, 2

weeks, 1 week, and 2 days before event

Facilities: temporary parking areas, portable restrooms, temporary fountains, extra seating, signs, and guides

Problem Solving / Decision Making Chapter 6 - 15

Take Actions to Reduce Likely Effects

Canvas roof over speaker platform Back up speakers Back-up hotel and vehicle

reservations Boy scout troop as a last minute

clean up crew

Problem Solving / Decision Making Chapter 6 - 16

Set Triggers for Contingent Actions

A mechanism to monitor the potential problem and activate the contingent action at the correct time.

Problem Solving / Decision Making Chapter 6 - 17

The Case Results Review the case study results, W

152-153, B 149-150 The purpose of PP(O)A is not to

guarantee error-free plans, projects, and events. The purpose is to prevent plans, projects, and events which are long remembered by: “Why didn’t somebody think of that?”

Problem Solving / Decision Making Chapter 6 - 18

Another Example

Full process which leads to the recognition of a new alternative Closing Sayers Point Mill

Problem Solving / Decision Making Chapter 6 - 19

When To Use PP(O)A Use Problem Analysis whenever

experience and intuition tell you something could go wrong and the cost of its going wrong could be great.

Use Opportunity Analysis when you are confident of success but experience and intuition tell you there could be value exceeding expectations

Problem Solving / Decision Making Chapter 6 - 20

Other Cases

The Likely Emergency A Crises Averted Opening the Quick Service Aircraft

Facility Searching for Alaskan Oil

Problem Solving / Decision Making Chapter 6 - 21

Chapter Summary Potential Problem Analysis is not

simply a search for trouble It is a constructive method for identifying

ways to avoid and lessen trouble that is likely to occur

Potential Opportunity analysis is not simply a search for improvement It is a deliberate search for ways to find

additional value and benefit