producers face new reality in the global soybean …...approved by the world agricultural outlook...

38
United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African Swine Fever (ASF) in China will be a game changer for the global oilseed complex, and soybeans in particular, in the coming years. China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reporting that the pig herd has declined by 20 percent since ASF was first reported in early August 2018, and China’s feed demand and soybean imports are projected to fall dramatically from earlier forecasts. Based on USDA’s import forecast for China from May 2018, and trend forecasts using earlier USDA baseline forecasts as a guide, the global soybean market faces a potential 42 million ton accumulated decline in China’s import demand through the 2019/20 year. The loss for 2018/19 is projected to reach 17 million tons with 2019/20 losses totaling 22 million tons. The 3 million ton decline in 2017/18 from USDA’s initial forecast is related to China’s reduction in soybean meal in feed rations prompted by the current trade engagement with the United States. With declines in China’s imports and crush for 2018/19 and little recovery in demand expected in the coming year, there will be limited opportunity for U.S. producers to see any appreciable draw-down in soybean stocks. And with a recovery in Argentina’s soybean output, Chinese buyers will have additional supplies to access outside of the United States compared to last year. Consequently, large global supplies and lower demand in China will continue to pressure soybean prices; a situation that will likely continue as the industry adjusts to ASF. This is a far cry from the market dynamics producers experienced since the mid-2000’s and will require adjustments by producers to remain profitable in a lower priced market. 2017/2018 2018/2019 2019/2020 SOYBEAN TRADE LOSS DUE TO ASF IN CHINA (MT ) 19,905 2,905 41,905

Upload: others

Post on 31-Aug-2020

3 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean …...Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African

United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA

May 2019

Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market

African Swine Fever (ASF) in China will be a game changer for the global oilseed complex, and soybeans in particular, in the coming years. China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reporting that the pig herd has declined by 20 percent since ASF was first reported in early August 2018, and China’s feed demand and soybean imports are projected to fall dramatically from earlier forecasts. Based on USDA’s import forecast for China from May 2018, and trend forecasts using earlier USDA baseline forecasts as a guide, the global soybean market faces a potential 42 million ton accumulated decline in China’s import demand through the 2019/20 year. The loss for 2018/19 is projected to reach 17 million tons with 2019/20 losses totaling 22 million tons. The 3 million ton decline in 2017/18 from USDA’s initial forecast is related to China’s reduction in soybean meal in feed rations prompted by the current trade engagement with the United States. With declines in China’s imports and crush for 2018/19 and little recovery in demand expected in the coming year, there will be limited opportunity for U.S. producers to see any appreciable draw-down in soybean stocks. And with a recovery in Argentina’s soybean output, Chinese buyers will have additional supplies to access outside of the United States compared to last year. Consequently, large global supplies and lower demand in China will continue to pressure soybean prices; a situation that will likely continue as the industry adjusts to ASF. This is a far cry from the market dynamics producers experienced since the mid-2000’s and will require adjustments by producers to remain profitable in a lower priced market.

2017/2018 2018/2019 2019/2020

SOYBEAN TRADE LOSS DUE TO ASF IN CHINA (MT)

19,905

2,905

41,905

Page 2: Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean …...Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African

PROJECTION FOR 2019/20 Global oilseed production for MY2019/20 is projected to decline 0.5 percent, a significant departure from the 3.5 percent average growth observed over the previous 5 years. Soybean production, which accounts for 60 percent of global oilseed production, is projected to decline 1.7 percent, mostly on reduced output in the United States. In contrast, global oilseed consumption is expected to rise 2 percent in 2019/20, similar to the current year yet below the 3.3 percent average annual growth seen in the proceeding 5 years. Low oilseed prices and the expected increase in meat production, driven in part by stronger demand for meat imports by China will partially offset the expected decline in demand for protein meals in China. A complete summary of the 2019/20 global oilseed and product forecasts will be published in the June 2019 Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade Report on June 11, 2019. EXPORT PRICES U.S. soybean export bids in April, FOB Gulf, averaged $340/ton, down $11 from March. Brazil Paranagua averaged $336/ton, down $8 from March. Argentina Up River FOB averaged $319/ton, plummeting $16 from last month. U.S. soybean meal export bids (FOB Gulf) in March averaged $344/ton, up $2 from March. Brazil Paranagua FOB averaged $315/ton, down $4 from March while Argentina Up River FOB averaged $313/ton, down $7 from the previous month. The export price spread between U.S. and Argentine soybeans has widened over the past month with the onset of the Southern Hemisphere harvest. Prices trended downward for both Argentina and Brazil, with all three export competitiors dropping $20/ton or more from last month. Higher U.S. prices relative to South America are in stark contrast to last September to November when U.S. bids were at a nearly $100/ton discount. Moreover, the price situation has also reversed itself compared with last year at this time. Argentine bids are more than $110 /ton lower than in May 2018 as severe drought depleted exportable supplies and stronger global demand kept all prices elevated. For soybean meal, the price spread between U.S. and South American origin has risen over the past month with U.S. premiums running $23/ton and $21/ton higher than Argentine and Brazilian meal in early April.

OVERVIEW FOR 2018/19 Global oilseed production for MY2018/19 is forecast higher this month at 601.0 million metric tons (tons) compared to 595.0 million in April. Higher peanut and soybean production levels accounted for the largest increases. Global peanut production is up 4.0 million tons with greater area harvested in Sudan producing higher output. Argentine soybean production is up on higher yields. Global oilseed crush declines by 1.4 million tons, and oilseed trade falls around 1.3 million tons due to continuing trade issues between China and Canada as well as China and the United States. Global oilseed stocks grow by 6.7 million tons mainly due to the reduction of U.S. soybean exports. Global meal trade is slightly lower this month due to a 1.2 million ton reduction in Argentine soybean meal caused by a lower supply available to crush resulting from last year’s drought. Global vegetable oil trade is slightly higher on increased demand for palm oil imports by China and the European Union in addition to a decline in Chinese soybean crush and oil output. The U.S. season-average farm price projection for soybeans is reduced by $0.05 to $8.55 per bushel.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 2 May 2019Office of Global Analysis

Page 3: Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean …...Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African

Uncertain trade prospects and African Swine Fever have instilled significant headwinds to global demand, especially in China. In addition, favorable weather for U.S. plantings and South American harvests, in addition to near-record U.S. stocks for 2 consecutive years will lead to greater supplies and also contribute to price pressure.

280300320340360380400420440

1/1/

2018

15/0

1/20

1829

/01/

2018

12/2

/201

826

/02/

2018

12/3

/201

826

/03/

2018

9/4/

2018

23/0

4/20

187/

5/20

1821

/05/

2018

4/6/

2018

18/0

6/20

182/

7/20

1816

/07/

2018

30/0

7/20

1813

/08/

2018

27/0

8/20

1810

/9/2

018

24/0

9/20

188/

10/2

018

22/1

0/20

185/

11/2

018

19/1

1/20

183/

12/2

018

17/1

2/20

1831

/12/

2018

14/0

1/20

1928

/01/

2019

11/2

/201

925

/02/

2019

11/3

/201

925

/03/

2019

4/8/

2019

4/22

/201

95/

6/20

19

US$

/ton

SOYBEAN EXPORT PRICES

Argentina (Up River) Brazil (Paranagua) U.S. (Gulf)

280300320340360380400420440460480500

1/1/

2018

15/0

1/20

1829

/01/

2018

12/2

/201

826

/02/

2018

12/3

/201

826

/03/

2018

9/4/

2018

23/0

4/20

187/

5/20

1821

/05/

2018

4/6/

2018

18/0

6/20

182/

7/20

1816

/07/

2018

30/0

7/20

1813

/08/

2018

27/0

8/20

1810

/9/2

018

24/0

9/20

188/

10/2

018

22/1

0/20

185/

11/2

018

19/1

1/20

183/

12/2

018

17/1

2/20

1831

/12/

2018

14/0

1/20

1928

/01/

2019

11/2

/201

925

/02/

2019

11/3

/201

925

/03/

2019

4/8/

2019

4/22

/201

95/

6/20

19

US$

/ton

SOYBEAN MEAL EXPORT PRICES

Argentina (Up River) Brazil 48% (Paranagua) US 48% (Gulf)

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 3 May 2019Office of Global Analysis

Page 4: Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean …...Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African

EXPORT SALES For the week ending May 2, 2019, U.S. 2018/19 soybean export commitments (outstanding sales plus accumulated exports) to China totaled 13.3 million tons compared to 28.7 million a year ago. Total commitments to the world were 45.0 million tons, compared to 55.1 million for the same period last year. Accumulated soybean exports were at 32.9 million tons, down over 11.0 million from last year. Accumulated soybean exports to China were at 5.9 million tons, over 20 million lower compared to last year. Shipments to the rest of the world were at 20.0 million tons, nearly 6 million above last year for the same period.

400440480520560600640680720760800

1/1/

2018

22/0

1/20

18

12/2

/201

8

5/3/

2018

26/0

3/20

18

16/0

4/20

18

7/5/

2018

28/0

5/20

18

18/0

6/20

18

9/7/

2018

30/0

7/20

18

20/0

8/20

18

10/9

/201

8

1/10

/201

8

22/1

0/20

18

12/1

1/20

18

3/12

/201

8

24/1

2/20

18

14/0

1/20

19

4/2/

2019

25/0

2/20

19

18/0

3/20

19

4/8/

2019

4/29

/201

9

US$

/ton

SOYBEAN AND PALM OIL EXPORT PRICES

Argentina (Up River) Soy Oil

Brazil (Paranagua) Soy Oil

USA (Gulf) Soy Oil

Indonesia Palm Oil

Malaysia Palm Oil

0102030405060

2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Mill

ion

Tons

U.S. Soybean Accumulated Exports as of May 2

China the EU Rest of World

02468

101214

2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Mill

ion

Tons

China Unknown Rest of World

U.S. Soybean Outstanding Sales as of May 2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Mill

ion

Tons

China Unknown

Rest of World

U.S. Soybean Total Commitments as of May 2

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 4 May 2019Office of Global Analysis

Page 5: Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean …...Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African

2018/19 OUTLOOK CHANGES

Country Commodity Attribute Previous Current Change Reason

Argentina Oilseed, Soybeans Imports 5,350 6,350 +1,000 Increased domestic demand

Meal, Soybean Exports 29,300 28,100 -1,200 Due to reduced crush

Bolivia Meal, Soybean Exports 1,450 1,675 +225 Caused by larger available supply

Brazil Oilseed, Soybean Exports 79,500 78,500 -1,000 Due to weaker Chinese demand

China

Oilseed, Soybean Imports 88,000 86,000 -2,000 Caused by lower domestic demand

Oilseed, Rapeseed Imports 4,400 4,000 -400 Response to lower imports from Canada due to trade issues

Oil, Palm Imports 6,000 6,150 +150 Response to reduced soybean crush for oil and need to diversify oil imports

European Union

Oilseed, Soybean Imports 15,800 15,500 -300 Reduced based on trade trends

Meal, Soybean Imports 18,525 18,700 +175 Driven by improved price and domestic demand

Meal, Rapeseed Exports 300 425 +125 Up due to trade data

Oil, Palm Imports 6,800 7,100 +300 Increased use for biofuel production

Malaysia Oil, Palm Exports 17,600 17,300 -300 Stronger domestic demand

Russia

Oilseed, Soybean Imports 2,450 2,230 -220 Reduced based on trade trends

Meal, Soybean Exports 280 410 +130 Increased based on trade trends

Meal, Sunflowerseed Exports 1,500 1,350 -150 Caused by higher domestic demand

Oil, Palm Imports 900 1,025 +125 Raised based on trade trends

Ukraine

Oilseed, Soybean Exports 2,950 2,550 -400 Due to decreased prices and new tax legislation

Meal, Soybean Exports 500 900 +400 Response to expanded processing due to tax impact on soybeans

Meal, Sunflowerseed Exports 4,700 5,000 +300 Due to higher crush

Oil, Sunflowerseed Exports 5,600 5,800 +200 Caused by higher global demand

United States

Oilseed, Soybean Exports 51,029 48,988 -2,041 Due to lower China demand

Note: All figures are in thousand metric tons.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 5 May 2019Office of Global Analysis

Page 6: Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean …...Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African

Questions may be directed to:

Bill George (202) 720-6234 [email protected] (or [email protected]) Graham Soley (202) 772-4235 [email protected] (or [email protected]) Elisa Loeser (202) 720-9459 [email protected] (or [email protected]) To download the tables in the publication, go to the Production, Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online): (http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx), scroll down to Reports, and click the plus sign [+] next to Oilseeds. The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) updates its production, supply and distribution (PSD) database for cotton, oilseeds, and grains at 12:00 p.m. on the day the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is released. This circular is released by 12:15 p.m. FAS Reports and Databases: Current World Markets and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports:

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdDataPublications.aspx Archives World Markets and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports:

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewTaxonomy.do?taxonomyID=7 Production, Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online):

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx Global Agricultural Trade System (U.S. Exports and Imports):

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx Export Sales Report:

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/ Global Agricultural Information Network (Agricultural Attaché Reports):

http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspx Other USDA Reports: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE):

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/ Economic Research Service:

http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops National Agricultural Statistics Service:

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 6 May 2019Office of Global Analysis

Page 7: Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean …...Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African

List of Tables SUMMARY TABLES Table 01 Major Oilseeds: World Supply and Distribution (Commodity View) Table 02 Major Protein Meals: World Supply and Distribution (Commodity View) Table 03 Major Vegetable Oils: World Supply and Distribution (Commodity View) Table 04 Major Oilseeds: World Supply and Distribution (Country View) Table 05 Major Protein Meals: World Supply and Distribution (Country View) Table 06 Major Vegetable Oils: World Supply and Distribution (Country View) COMMODITY TABLES Table 07 Soybeans: World Supply and Distribution Table 08 Soybean Meal: World Supply and Distribution Table 09 Soybean Oil: World Supply and Distribution Table 10 Soybeans and Products: World Trade Table 11 Palm Oil: World Supply and Distribution Table 12 Rapeseed and Products: World Supply and Distribution Table 13 Sunflowerseed and Products: World Supply and Distribution Table 14 Minor Vegetable Oils: World Supply and Distribution HISTORICAL TABLES Table 15 World Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution Table 16 World Soybeans and Products Supply and Distribution Table 17 World Rapeseed and Products Supply and Distribution Table 18 World Sunflowerseed and Products Supply and Distribution Table 19 World Palm Oil, Coconut Oil, and Fish Meal Supply and Distribution COUNTRY TABLES Table 20 United States Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution Local Marketing Years Table 21 United States Soybeans and Products Supply and Distribution Local Marketing Years Table 22 Brazil Soybeans and Products Supply and Distribution Local Marketing Years Table 23 Argentina Soybeans and Products Supply and Distribution Local Marketing Years Table 24 South East Asia Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution Table 25 Middle East Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution Table 26 European Union Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution Table 27 China Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution Table 28 India Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution PRICES Table 29 Oilseed Prices Table 30 Protein Meal Prices Table 31 Vegetable Oil Prices

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 7 May 2019Office of Global Analysis

Page 8: Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean …...Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African

Table 01: Major Oilseeds: World Supply and Distribution (Commodity View)

Million Metric Tons

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

May

2019/20

none

Production none

5.43 Oilseed, Copra 5.32 5.51 5.94 5.98 5.81

44.36 Oilseed, Cottonseed 35.76 39.09 45.15 43.34 45.83

16.57 Oilseed, Palm Kernel 15.97 17.39 18.76 19.50 20.05

41.56 Oilseed, Peanut 41.12 44.94 46.58 45.76 44.92

70.43 Oilseed, Rapeseed 68.74 69.43 74.69 72.80 74.80

320.73 Oilseed, Soybean 316.57 350.58 341.54 362.08 355.66

39.19 Oilseed, Sunflowerseed 40.57 48.05 47.84 51.52 50.95

538.26 Total 524.05 575.00 580.49 600.97 598.03

none

Imports none

0.10 Oilseed, Copra 0.13 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.11

0.67 Oilseed, Cottonseed 0.67 0.96 0.75 0.71 0.74

0.07 Oilseed, Palm Kernel 0.06 0.06 0.08 0.07 0.07

2.52 Oilseed, Peanut 3.30 3.15 2.99 3.13 3.16

14.32 Oilseed, Rapeseed 14.15 15.51 15.32 15.40 16.07

124.36 Oilseed, Soybean 133.35 144.22 152.92 149.56 150.82

1.56 Oilseed, Sunflowerseed 1.87 2.17 2.15 2.11 2.26

143.59 Total 153.52 166.18 174.31 171.08 173.22

none

Exports none

0.12 Oilseed, Copra 0.15 0.19 0.18 0.19 0.19

0.73 Oilseed, Cottonseed 0.70 0.89 0.98 0.91 0.89

0.04 Oilseed, Palm Kernel 0.04 0.08 0.08 0.05 0.05

3.33 Oilseed, Peanut 3.53 3.67 3.36 3.39 3.59

15.11 Oilseed, Rapeseed 14.35 15.80 16.20 16.03 16.93

126.23 Oilseed, Soybean 132.57 147.50 152.96 150.30 151.15

1.66 Oilseed, Sunflowerseed 2.01 2.46 2.44 2.32 2.50

147.20 Total 153.35 170.59 176.19 173.19 175.31

none

Crush none

5.38 Oilseed, Copra 5.28 5.40 5.84 5.86 5.71

33.76 Oilseed, Cottonseed 28.42 29.19 34.14 34.11 35.05

16.51 Oilseed, Palm Kernel 15.90 17.25 18.69 19.41 19.93

16.62 Oilseed, Peanut 16.74 17.81 18.39 17.45 18.12

67.09 Oilseed, Rapeseed 66.71 67.34 68.49 68.31 68.67

264.75 Oilseed, Soybean 275.13 287.80 295.14 301.63 308.20

35.64 Oilseed, Sunflowerseed 36.67 43.05 43.91 46.92 47.41

439.75 Total 444.84 467.85 484.60 493.68 503.09

none

Ending Stocks none

0.10 Oilseed, Copra 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.06

1.71 Oilseed, Cottonseed 0.88 1.39 1.86 1.38 1.27

0.26 Oilseed, Palm Kernel 0.24 0.24 0.18 0.17 0.19

4.26 Oilseed, Peanut 3.46 3.70 4.43 4.91 4.00

7.26 Oilseed, Rapeseed 6.17 4.99 7.18 7.63 9.19

79.31 Oilseed, Soybean 80.41 96.16 99.10 113.18 113.09

2.90 Oilseed, Sunflowerseed 2.65 3.30 2.93 3.29 2.62

95.80 Total 93.89 109.85 115.75 130.64 130.42

Totals may not add due to rounding

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 8 May 2019Office of Global Analysis

Page 9: Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean …...Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African

Table 02: Major Protein Meals: World Supply and Distribution (Commodity View)

Million Metric Tons

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

May

2019/20

none

Production none

1.79 Meal, Copra 1.77 1.81 1.95 1.96 1.92

15.51 Meal, Cottonseed 13.10 13.44 15.73 15.74 16.32

4.69 Meal, Fish 4.51 4.87 4.98 4.71 4.94

8.53 Meal, Palm Kernel 8.18 8.91 9.77 10.11 10.39

6.61 Meal, Peanut 6.64 7.09 7.32 6.93 7.20

38.72 Meal, Rapeseed 38.61 38.80 39.53 39.44 39.66

208.48 Meal, Soybean 215.97 225.93 232.35 236.34 241.72

16.16 Meal, Sunflowerseed 16.51 19.34 19.89 21.13 21.37

300.49 Total 305.27 320.19 331.53 336.35 343.52

none

Imports none

0.67 Meal, Copra 0.56 0.48 0.64 0.57 0.59

0.25 Meal, Cottonseed 0.22 0.24 0.31 0.34 0.35

2.50 Meal, Fish 2.46 3.07 3.01 2.86 2.98

6.83 Meal, Palm Kernel 6.41 7.58 8.14 8.08 8.11

0.03 Meal, Peanut 0.02 0.13 0.05 0.07 0.07

6.01 Meal, Rapeseed 5.72 5.90 6.22 6.62 6.66

60.71 Meal, Soybean 62.10 60.40 59.99 62.88 65.11

5.53 Meal, Sunflowerseed 5.96 6.96 6.59 7.49 7.52

82.52 Total 83.44 84.76 84.96 88.91 91.39

none

Exports none

0.74 Meal, Copra 0.58 0.42 0.71 0.66 0.62

0.36 Meal, Cottonseed 0.31 0.38 0.49 0.44 0.45

2.28 Meal, Fish 2.21 2.53 2.50 2.59 2.61

6.63 Meal, Palm Kernel 6.45 6.72 7.17 7.50 7.67

0.05 Meal, Peanut 0.05 0.16 0.10 0.10 0.11

6.07 Meal, Rapeseed 5.69 5.98 6.35 6.82 6.86

64.41 Meal, Soybean 65.53 64.78 63.92 66.37 68.83

5.87 Meal, Sunflowerseed 6.23 7.44 6.89 7.83 7.76

86.40 Total 87.04 88.40 88.13 92.32 94.92

none

Domestic Consumption none

1.72 Meal, Copra 1.73 1.81 1.93 1.88 1.89

15.40 Meal, Cottonseed 13.15 13.28 15.54 15.67 16.23

4.87 Meal, Fish 4.75 5.42 5.32 5.19 5.31

8.71 Meal, Palm Kernel 8.35 9.70 10.61 10.69 10.80

6.59 Meal, Peanut 6.57 7.09 7.28 6.89 7.16

38.59 Meal, Rapeseed 38.52 38.75 39.39 39.31 39.42

201.59 Meal, Soybean 213.15 221.77 229.23 232.74 238.45

15.58 Meal, Sunflowerseed 16.19 19.25 19.45 20.96 21.41

293.05 Total 302.41 317.05 328.74 333.33 340.67

none

Ending Stocks none

0.15 Meal, Copra 0.16 0.22 0.17 0.15 0.15

0.22 Meal, Cottonseed 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.10 0.08

0.26 Meal, Fish 0.27 0.26 0.43 0.21 0.22

0.58 Meal, Palm Kernel 0.38 0.44 0.58 0.58 0.61

0.03 Meal, Peanut 0.06 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03

1.00 Meal, Rapeseed 1.11 1.09 1.10 1.04 1.07

14.05 Meal, Soybean 13.44 13.24 12.43 12.54 12.09

1.69 Meal, Sunflowerseed 1.74 1.36 1.49 1.32 1.03

17.97 Total 17.23 16.73 16.35 15.96 15.28

Totals may not add due to rounding

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 9 May 2019Office of Global Analysis

Page 10: Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean …...Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African

Table 03: Major Vegetable Oils: World Supply and Distribution (Commodity View)

Million Metric Tons

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

May

2019/20

none

Production none

3.37 Oil, Coconut 3.31 3.39 3.66 3.67 3.58

5.12 Oil, Cottonseed 4.30 4.43 5.18 5.17 5.36

2.40 Oil, Olive 3.13 2.48 3.26 3.09 3.36

61.78 Oil, Palm 58.90 65.27 70.61 73.58 75.51

7.32 Oil, Palm Kernel 7.01 7.64 8.34 8.59 8.81

5.38 Oil, Peanut 5.42 5.77 5.95 5.65 5.86

27.41 Oil, Rapeseed 27.34 27.54 28.10 27.97 28.15

49.28 Oil, Soybean 51.56 53.81 55.17 56.54 57.69

14.97 Oil, Sunflowerseed 15.39 18.16 18.51 19.69 19.90

177.02 Total 176.35 188.48 198.78 203.95 208.22

none

Imports none

1.82 Oil, Coconut 1.61 1.50 1.71 1.69 1.77

0.08 Oil, Cottonseed 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.05

0.90 Oil, Olive 0.79 0.79 0.92 0.90 1.01

44.79 Oil, Palm 42.84 45.93 46.29 50.40 52.12

3.06 Oil, Palm Kernel 2.64 2.69 2.78 2.83 2.91

0.25 Oil, Peanut 0.25 0.23 0.24 0.25 0.28

3.95 Oil, Rapeseed 4.13 4.39 4.49 4.86 5.02

10.04 Oil, Soybean 11.69 10.97 9.72 10.95 11.43

6.18 Oil, Sunflowerseed 7.02 8.88 8.53 8.50 8.84

71.05 Total 71.02 75.41 74.72 80.42 83.42

none

Exports none

1.94 Oil, Coconut 1.59 1.91 1.73 1.85 1.78

0.15 Oil, Cottonseed 0.07 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.13

0.99 Oil, Olive 0.87 0.88 1.02 0.96 1.10

47.39 Oil, Palm 43.84 48.99 48.53 51.79 53.54

3.24 Oil, Palm Kernel 3.02 3.08 3.12 3.20 3.28

0.26 Oil, Peanut 0.25 0.27 0.26 0.26 0.30

4.07 Oil, Rapeseed 4.17 4.49 4.60 5.02 5.05

11.12 Oil, Soybean 11.77 11.33 10.51 11.21 11.77

7.39 Oil, Sunflowerseed 8.11 10.42 9.73 10.18 10.23

76.54 Total 73.68 81.44 79.61 84.60 87.18

none

Domestic Consumption none

3.28 Oil, Coconut 3.23 3.07 3.39 3.45 3.52

5.05 Oil, Cottonseed 4.41 4.39 5.12 5.10 5.29

2.65 Oil, Olive 2.81 2.59 2.87 3.07 3.24

58.22 Oil, Palm 59.70 61.64 66.31 72.54 75.10

7.21 Oil, Palm Kernel 6.82 7.22 7.82 8.18 8.43

5.37 Oil, Peanut 5.40 5.64 5.96 5.61 5.86

27.04 Oil, Rapeseed 28.18 28.91 28.96 28.29 28.58

47.73 Oil, Soybean 52.19 53.41 54.63 56.24 57.44

14.12 Oil, Sunflowerseed 15.22 16.54 17.15 17.95 18.45

170.68 Total 177.96 183.40 192.20 200.43 205.90

none

Ending Stocks none

0.38 Oil, Coconut 0.47 0.39 0.64 0.70 0.75

0.22 Oil, Cottonseed 0.10 0.11 0.13 0.14 0.14

0.31 Oil, Olive 0.53 0.34 0.62 0.58 0.61

10.06 Oil, Palm 8.26 8.83 10.88 10.53 9.62

0.86 Oil, Palm Kernel 0.68 0.69 0.88 0.91 0.92

0.24 Oil, Peanut 0.26 0.34 0.31 0.33 0.31

6.52 Oil, Rapeseed 5.64 4.17 3.20 2.72 2.25

4.46 Oil, Soybean 3.75 3.79 3.54 3.58 3.48

2.59 Oil, Sunflowerseed 1.67 1.75 1.90 1.97 2.02

25.63 Total 21.36 20.41 22.09 21.44 20.10

Totals may not add due to rounding

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 10 May 2019Office of Global Analysis

Page 11: Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean …...Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African

Table 04: Major Oilseeds: World Supply and Distribution (Country View)

Million Metric Tons

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

May

2019/20

Production none

100.15 Brazil 99.02 117.59 125.80 121.87 127.74

116.05 United States 115.89 126.94 131.48 133.85 124.25

56.75 China 53.48 54.92 59.49 59.88 61.73

66.31 Argentina 63.10 60.16 42.52 61.30 58.34

32.28 India 29.37 37.05 35.41 36.08 37.41

166.71 Other 163.18 178.33 185.79 188.00 188.57

538.26 Total 524.05 575.00 580.49 600.97 598.03

Imports none

83.15 China 87.93 98.42 99.28 90.57 91.68

17.35 European Union 19.86 19.16 20.07 21.53 21.49

5.73 Mexico 5.82 6.03 6.76 7.08 7.70

5.70 Japan 5.78 5.79 5.86 5.98 6.06

0.00 Argentina 0.68 1.67 4.70 6.35 3.90

2.51 Thailand 2.91 3.19 2.59 3.26 3.61

2.01 Egypt 1.37 2.18 3.33 3.42 3.57

3.12 Turkey 2.98 3.01 3.54 3.13 3.44

1.67 Pakistan 2.62 2.77 3.12 3.31 3.43

2.25 Indonesia 2.52 3.03 2.92 3.18 3.43

20.09 Other 21.05 20.93 22.13 23.27 24.93

143.59 Total 153.52 166.18 174.31 171.08 173.22

Exports none

50.85 Brazil 54.65 63.37 76.49 78.77 75.32

51.11 United States 53.97 60.08 59.19 49.50 54.30

13.01 Canada 14.55 15.63 15.80 16.03 14.38

11.56 Argentina 11.21 7.87 2.77 7.16 7.90

4.62 Paraguay 5.41 6.13 6.03 5.60 6.21

4.43 Ukraine 3.89 4.13 4.91 5.15 5.65

2.92 Australia 2.23 3.41 2.68 2.05 2.38

8.71 Other 7.45 9.95 8.32 8.94 9.19

147.20 Total 153.35 170.59 176.19 173.19 175.31

Crush none

111.60 China 116.50 122.62 127.55 123.03 123.11

55.11 United States 55.06 56.26 60.17 61.38 62.27

43.39 Argentina 46.37 46.73 40.41 45.81 48.83

47.84 European Union 46.74 46.67 48.58 48.73 48.44

42.94 Brazil 41.84 42.90 47.71 46.81 47.89

25.15 India 22.70 27.57 27.98 28.98 29.84

13.08 Russia 13.59 15.40 15.95 17.95 18.95

11.45 Ukraine 12.93 15.58 14.92 16.65 16.80

10.25 Indonesia 10.02 10.98 12.06 12.45 12.80

9.06 Canada 10.25 11.05 11.21 11.35 11.35

6.41 Mexico 6.49 6.73 7.53 7.84 8.32

5.96 Pakistan 5.58 5.88 6.51 6.59 6.77

5.56 Malaysia 5.21 5.38 5.53 5.82 5.92

4.30 Turkey 3.68 4.05 4.88 4.94 4.97

4.66 Japan 4.73 4.86 4.78 4.88 4.94

43.02 Other 43.15 45.21 48.85 50.51 51.92

439.75 Total 444.84 467.85 484.60 493.68 503.09

Ending Stocks none

28.74 Argentina 28.36 28.62 25.48 32.66 30.40

6.76 United States 6.87 9.60 13.83 28.79 28.06

24.56 Brazil 24.67 33.33 32.84 26.26 27.91

18.86 China 18.34 21.92 24.87 23.04 23.25

3.02 Canada 2.42 1.66 3.17 4.08 5.31

13.85 Other 13.24 14.72 15.57 15.82 15.49

95.80 Total 93.89 109.85 115.75 130.64 130.42

Major Oilseeds includes Copra, Cottonseed, Palm Kernel, Peanut, Rapeseed, Soybeans and Sunflowerseeds.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 11 May 2019Office of Global Analysis

Page 12: Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean …...Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African

Table 05: Major Protein Meals: World Supply and Distribution (Country View)

Million Metric Tons

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

May

2019/20

Production none

78.22 China 82.73 87.67 90.61 87.15 87.15

43.21 United States 42.78 43.11 47.03 46.93 47.80

32.48 Brazil 31.74 32.45 36.02 35.05 35.92

32.29 Argentina 34.51 34.72 29.42 33.43 35.66

30.63 European Union 30.16 30.00 31.17 31.58 31.34

83.65 Other 83.35 92.23 97.30 102.22 105.65

300.49 Total 305.27 320.19 331.53 336.35 343.52

Imports none

25.82 European Union 25.41 24.90 24.67 25.16 25.26

4.99 Vietnam 5.73 5.69 5.59 5.73 5.84

4.04 Indonesia 4.30 4.35 4.57 4.96 5.11

1.78 China 1.83 3.18 3.59 4.40 4.52

3.87 United States 4.08 3.92 3.75 3.79 3.70

3.65 Thailand 2.98 3.32 3.78 3.54 3.70

3.42 Korea, South 3.39 3.03 3.23 3.36 3.43

34.94 Other 35.73 36.37 35.79 37.98 39.84

82.52 Total 83.44 84.76 84.96 88.91 91.39

Exports none

29.19 Argentina 31.09 32.13 26.11 28.96 31.82

14.29 Brazil 15.41 13.76 16.06 15.70 15.20

12.14 United States 11.18 10.83 13.04 12.78 12.65

3.74 Ukraine 4.35 5.19 4.67 6.06 6.00

4.28 Indonesia 4.12 4.51 5.02 5.17 5.28

3.86 Canada 4.44 4.93 4.90 5.11 5.07

2.64 India 0.75 2.50 2.74 2.79 2.79

16.26 Other 15.71 14.57 15.59 15.76 16.12

86.40 Total 87.04 88.40 88.13 92.32 94.92

Domestic Consumption none

78.39 China 82.51 89.69 92.96 90.61 90.73

54.24 European Union 54.25 54.37 54.65 55.14 55.30

34.94 United States 35.69 36.08 37.58 38.04 38.90

16.88 Brazil 17.46 18.12 19.23 20.08 20.92

12.16 India 12.87 13.70 14.34 14.82 15.39

5.32 Russia 5.87 6.87 7.18 7.69 8.13

6.37 Mexico 6.97 7.06 7.28 7.68 8.11

5.85 Vietnam 6.49 6.86 7.11 7.32 7.43

5.54 Japan 5.87 6.29 6.48 6.63 6.71

4.90 Indonesia 5.10 5.30 5.56 5.92 6.24

68.46 Other 69.33 72.72 76.38 79.40 82.81

293.05 Total 302.41 317.05 328.74 333.33 340.67

SME none

73.52 China 77.93 85.12 87.82 85.08 85.22

46.36 European Union 46.55 46.50 46.59 47.27 47.50

33.56 United States 34.28 34.65 36.26 36.70 37.50

16.64 Brazil 17.26 17.88 18.92 19.69 20.52

10.62 India 11.00 11.74 12.26 12.69 13.22

5.97 Mexico 6.57 6.66 6.88 7.27 7.70

5.63 Vietnam 6.25 6.57 6.82 7.03 7.14

75.13 Other 77.17 80.56 84.26 87.96 91.88

267.43 Total 277.00 289.68 299.82 303.68 310.68

Ending Stocks none

4.26 Argentina 4.34 3.39 2.98 3.50 3.22

3.82 Brazil 2.72 3.33 4.07 3.37 3.19

1.76 European Union 1.89 1.11 0.85 1.08 0.95

0.54 Indonesia 0.59 0.62 0.64 0.76 0.79

0.70 India 0.38 1.07 0.58 0.75 0.76

6.89 Other 7.32 7.22 7.23 6.52 6.37

17.97 Total 17.23 16.73 16.35 15.96 15.28

Major Protein Meals include Copra, Cottonseed, Fish, Palm Kernel, Peanut, Rapeseed, Soybean, and Sunflower Meal.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 12 May 2019Office of Global Analysis

Page 13: Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean …...Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African

Table 06: Major Vegetable Oils: World Supply and Distribution (Country View)

Million Metric Tons

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

May

2019/20

Production none

37.78 Indonesia 36.68 41.10 45.08 47.25 48.89

24.86 China 25.78 26.76 27.77 26.86 26.87

22.27 Malaysia 19.85 21.13 22.10 22.98 23.21

18.08 European Union 18.42 17.94 19.06 18.85 18.87

10.94 United States 11.21 11.43 12.11 12.44 12.56

8.97 Argentina 9.69 9.82 8.68 9.75 10.36

8.65 Brazil 8.46 8.73 9.65 9.48 9.69

45.47 Other 46.26 51.57 54.32 56.35 57.77

177.02 Total 176.35 188.48 198.78 203.95 208.22

Imports none

14.14 India 15.11 15.41 14.49 16.67 17.10

8.63 China 7.77 8.00 8.65 10.27 11.34

9.88 European Union 10.06 10.87 10.65 10.75 10.74

4.23 United States 4.53 4.73 4.79 4.64 4.79

2.98 Pakistan 2.91 3.28 3.12 3.31 3.41

1.79 Bangladesh 2.15 2.15 2.42 2.53 2.65

2.25 Egypt 2.04 2.16 1.81 1.96 2.11

0.87 Philippines 1.05 1.30 1.21 1.34 1.36

0.97 Russia 1.05 0.97 1.20 1.29 1.32

1.53 Turkey 1.41 1.50 1.21 1.24 1.24

23.78 Other 22.94 25.04 25.20 26.43 27.37

71.05 Total 71.02 75.41 74.72 80.42 83.42

Exports none

28.51 Indonesia 25.19 29.86 29.28 31.41 32.45

18.87 Malaysia 17.90 17.47 17.69 18.49 19.20

5.72 Argentina 6.41 6.28 4.84 5.89 6.45

4.12 Ukraine 4.81 6.11 5.60 6.21 6.12

2.23 Russia 2.23 2.98 3.26 3.46 3.80

2.54 Canada 2.93 3.29 3.33 3.47 3.48

2.48 European Union 2.48 2.40 2.51 2.59 2.61

12.07 Other 11.72 13.05 13.09 13.07 13.08

76.54 Total 73.68 81.44 79.61 84.60 87.18

Domestic Consumption none

33.60 China 34.72 35.73 36.86 37.65 38.34

25.81 European Union 26.06 26.41 26.77 26.86 27.01

19.88 India 20.99 21.87 22.38 23.79 24.53

9.60 Indonesia 11.75 11.93 14.12 16.23 16.84

13.68 United States 14.57 14.72 15.54 15.87 16.48

7.47 Brazil 7.50 7.88 8.42 8.80 8.93

4.57 Malaysia 4.54 4.19 4.92 5.35 5.72

4.15 Pakistan 4.25 4.45 4.49 4.65 4.73

3.24 Russia 3.31 3.40 3.48 3.76 3.98

3.11 Argentina 3.56 3.71 3.81 3.83 3.91

2.49 Thailand 2.44 2.70 2.85 3.09 3.23

2.08 Bangladesh 2.37 2.49 2.72 2.98 3.06

2.56 Mexico 2.65 2.74 2.84 2.95 3.06

2.48 Egypt 2.47 2.35 2.45 2.55 2.70

2.36 Japan 2.36 2.42 2.45 2.55 2.61

33.62 Other 34.43 36.42 38.10 39.53 40.78

170.68 Total 177.96 183.40 192.20 200.43 205.90

Ending Stocks none

2.72 Indonesia 2.50 1.86 3.59 3.26 2.97

2.96 Malaysia 1.73 2.28 2.82 3.05 2.60

1.86 European Union 1.79 1.80 2.22 2.36 2.34

5.93 China 4.65 3.52 2.80 2.11 1.80

1.93 India 1.77 2.20 1.42 1.60 1.63

10.23 Other 8.92 8.75 9.25 9.07 8.76

25.63 Total 21.36 20.41 22.09 21.44 20.10

Major Vegetable Oils includes Coconut, Cottonseed, Olive, Palm, Palm Kernel, Peanut, Rapeseed, Soybean, and Sunflowerseed oil.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 13 May 2019Office of Global Analysis

Page 14: Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean …...Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African

Table 07: Soybeans: World Supply and Distribution

Thousand Metric Tons

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

May

2019/20

Production none

97,200 Brazil 96,500 114,600 122,000 117,000 123,000

106,905 United States 106,869 116,931 120,065 123,664 112,945

61,450 Argentina 58,800 55,000 37,800 56,000 53,000

12,690 China 12,360 13,644 15,200 15,900 17,000

8,711 India 6,929 10,992 8,350 11,500 10,900

8,154 Paraguay 9,217 10,336 10,300 9,000 10,200

6,045 Canada 6,456 6,597 7,717 7,300 6,300

19,579 Other 19,434 22,482 20,112 21,711 22,317

320,734 Total 316,565 350,582 341,544 362,075 355,662

Imports none

78,350 China 83,230 93,495 94,095 86,000 87,000

13,914 European Union 15,120 13,441 14,584 15,500 15,100

3,819 Mexico 4,126 4,126 4,873 5,230 5,800

2 Argentina 676 1,674 4,703 6,350 3,900

1,947 Egypt 1,300 2,115 3,255 3,350 3,500

2,411 Thailand 2,798 3,078 2,482 3,150 3,500

3,004 Japan 3,186 3,175 3,256 3,300 3,350

2,006 Indonesia 2,274 2,649 2,483 2,725 2,950

2,520 Taiwan 2,476 2,566 2,666 2,730 2,850

2,197 Turkey 2,283 2,271 2,777 2,600 2,800

14,192 Other 15,877 15,626 17,741 18,622 20,067

124,362 Total 133,346 144,216 152,915 149,557 150,817

Exports none

50,612 Brazil 54,383 63,137 76,175 78,500 75,000

50,136 United States 52,870 58,960 57,945 48,308 53,070

10,575 Argentina 9,922 7,026 2,112 6,300 7,000

4,576 Paraguay 5,400 6,124 6,029 5,600 6,200

3,763 Canada 4,236 4,592 4,925 5,400 4,250

6,564 Other 5,761 7,659 5,772 6,196 5,630

126,226 Total 132,572 147,498 152,958 150,304 151,150

Crush none

74,500 China 81,500 88,000 90,000 86,000 86,000

50,975 United States 51,335 51,742 55,926 57,153 57,561

40,235 Argentina 43,267 43,309 36,933 42,000 45,000

40,435 Brazil 39,747 40,411 44,515 42,700 43,750

14,450 European Union 14,950 14,400 14,950 16,300 16,000

7,700 India 5,500 9,000 7,700 9,500 9,500

4,175 Mexico 4,400 4,600 5,250 5,500 5,950

3,600 Russia 4,000 4,400 4,600 4,800 5,100

3,700 Paraguay 3,800 3,750 3,870 3,900 3,950

1,950 Egypt 1,150 2,200 3,200 3,300 3,400

1,450 Iran 1,950 2,050 2,700 2,600 2,650

2,450 Bolivia 2,550 2,550 2,300 2,550 2,550

500 Pakistan 1,250 1,680 2,300 2,400 2,500

2,150 Japan 2,283 2,392 2,400 2,400 2,430

1,980 Taiwan 1,980 2,045 2,150 2,250 2,350

14,504 Other 15,468 15,268 16,349 18,274 19,512

264,754 Total 275,130 287,797 295,143 301,627 308,203

Ending Stocks none

27,069 Argentina 27,156 26,995 23,753 30,900 28,650

24,428 Brazil 24,558 33,212 32,700 26,000 27,700

5,188 United States 5,354 8,208 11,923 27,086 26,412

17,562 China 17,138 20,663 23,524 22,199 22,374

843 European Union 1,559 1,150 1,397 1,418 1,408

4,216 Other 4,640 5,931 5,806 5,581 6,549

79,306 Total 80,405 96,159 99,103 113,184 113,093

Most countries are on an October/September Marketing Year (MY). The United States, Mexico, and Thailand are on a

September/August MY. Canada is on an August/July MY. Paraguay is on a Jan/Dec MY.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 14 May 2019Office of Global Analysis

Page 15: Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean …...Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African

Table 08: Soybean Meal: World Supply and Distribution

Thousand Metric Tons

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

May

2019/20

Production none

59,004 China 64,548 69,696 71,280 68,112 68,112

40,880 United States 40,525 40,630 44,657 44,538 45,178

30,928 Argentina 33,211 33,280 27,930 31,800 34,000

31,300 Brazil 30,750 31,280 34,500 33,100 33,950

11,416 European Union 11,811 11,376 11,811 12,877 12,640

6,160 India 4,400 7,200 6,160 7,600 7,600

3,300 Mexico 3,480 3,635 4,152 4,350 4,700

25,495 Other 27,247 28,837 31,861 33,958 35,541

208,483 Total 215,972 225,934 232,351 236,335 241,721

Imports none

19,623 European Union 19,213 18,794 18,354 18,700 19,000

4,311 Vietnam 5,094 4,945 4,800 5,000 5,100

3,902 Indonesia 4,203 4,255 4,454 4,850 5,000

2,204 Philippines 2,618 2,662 2,750 2,950 3,100

3,068 Thailand 2,433 2,782 3,191 2,900 3,000

1,795 Mexico 2,367 1,991 1,818 2,000 2,130

1,751 Korea, South 2,118 1,764 1,846 1,900 1,950

1,699 Japan 1,721 1,621 1,728 1,770 1,775

1,465 Malaysia 1,291 1,427 1,525 1,600 1,700

1,148 Colombia 1,206 1,284 1,425 1,500 1,575

19,740 Other 19,831 18,876 18,101 19,714 20,780

60,706 Total 62,095 60,401 59,992 62,884 65,110

Exports none

28,575 Argentina 30,333 31,323 25,350 28,100 31,000

14,290 Brazil 15,407 13,762 16,064 15,700 15,200

11,891 United States 10,844 10,505 12,752 12,474 12,338

2,569 Paraguay 2,561 2,370 2,625 2,580 2,580

1,521 India 409 2,008 1,844 1,850 1,850

5,559 Other 5,972 4,807 5,285 5,665 5,859

64,405 Total 65,526 64,775 63,920 66,369 68,827

Domestic Consumption none

57,467 China 62,663 68,646 70,105 67,242 67,262

29,282 United States 30,044 30,318 32,213 32,614 33,203

30,142 European Union 30,692 30,242 30,042 31,042 31,342

15,700 Brazil 16,470 16,943 17,711 18,131 18,950

5,050 Mexico 5,700 5,770 5,950 6,325 6,750

4,750 Vietnam 5,470 5,740 5,990 6,170 6,270

4,500 India 4,460 4,750 4,800 5,600 5,750

4,000 Indonesia 4,150 4,250 4,500 4,750 5,000

4,100 Thailand 4,230 4,232 4,250 4,350 4,650

2,700 Russia 3,100 3,350 3,450 3,550 3,775

2,650 Egypt 2,850 2,980 3,150 3,400 3,600

3,365 Japan 3,460 3,420 3,550 3,580 3,600

3,000 Iran 3,080 3,180 3,300 3,425 3,575

2,402 Argentina 2,672 2,853 2,995 3,185 3,300

2,400 Philippines 2,600 2,720 2,850 3,050 3,200

30,085 Other 31,508 32,371 34,377 36,325 38,222

201,593 Total 213,149 221,765 229,233 232,739 238,449

Ending Stocks none

3,812 Brazil 2,710 3,320 4,064 3,359 3,185

4,025 Argentina 4,231 3,335 2,920 3,435 3,135

264 Indonesia 317 322 276 376 376

236 United States 239 363 504 408 363

863 European Union 891 485 213 398 346

4,850 Other 5,054 5,412 4,450 4,562 4,688

14,050 Total 13,442 13,237 12,427 12,538 12,093

Most countries are on an October/September Marketing Year (MY). The Mexico and Thailand are on a September/August MY.

Canada is on an August/July MY. Paraguay, Vietnam and the Philippines are on a January/December MY and Bolivia is on a

March/February MY.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 15 May 2019Office of Global Analysis

Page 16: Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean …...Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African

Table 09: Soybean Oil: World Supply and Distribution

Thousand Metric Tons

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

May

2019/20

Production none

13,350 China 14,605 15,770 16,128 15,411 15,411

9,706 United States 9,956 10,035 10,783 11,145 11,129

7,687 Argentina 8,433 8,395 7,236 8,200 8,800

7,759 Brazil 7,627 7,755 8,535 8,195 8,385

2,746 European Union 2,841 2,736 2,841 3,097 3,040

1,386 India 990 1,620 1,386 1,710 1,710

745 Mexico 785 820 937 982 1,065

5,905 Other 6,318 6,683 7,326 7,802 8,145

49,284 Total 51,555 53,814 55,172 56,542 57,685

Imports none

2,815 India 4,269 3,534 2,984 3,400 3,500

773 China 586 711 481 900 1,100

508 Bangladesh 639 830 780 780 800

631 Algeria 732 667 720 760 770

395 Peru 382 449 490 500 525

432 Morocco 465 497 492 515 520

304 Colombia 372 352 355 375 390

253 European Union 325 285 284 325 325

257 Korea, South 250 306 276 300 295

480 Egypt 674 246 227 250 260

3,187 Other 2,993 3,088 2,626 2,840 2,944

10,035 Total 11,687 10,965 9,715 10,945 11,429

Exports none

5,094 Argentina 5,698 5,387 4,133 5,100 5,650

1,510 Brazil 1,550 1,241 1,511 1,200 1,250

1,010 European Union 915 819 902 1,000 1,000

914 United States 1,017 1,159 1,110 975 816

699 Paraguay 709 680 702 710 715

423 Russia 431 529 568 585 600

392 Bolivia 444 338 380 350 370

1,075 Other 1,005 1,172 1,200 1,290 1,366

11,117 Total 11,769 11,325 10,506 11,210 11,767

Domestic Consumption none

14,200 China 15,350 16,350 16,500 16,249 16,391

8,600 United States 9,145 9,010 9,696 10,410 10,705

6,215 Brazil 6,288 6,570 6,940 7,130 7,200

4,100 India 5,250 5,150 4,720 5,000 5,200

2,401 Argentina 2,840 2,985 3,081 3,075 3,140

2,040 European Union 2,285 2,205 2,225 2,280 2,305

961 Mexico 1,020 1,070 1,060 1,150 1,230

668 Bangladesh 785 1,005 1,010 1,045 1,065

752 Egypt 960 610 760 810 825

640 Algeria 700 710 710 750 765

660 Iran 680 700 710 715 735

242 Pakistan 415 470 490 526 542

375 Peru 405 435 455 500 525

450 Morocco 480 470 496 505 510

435 Korea, South 440 450 470 490 495

4,992 Other 5,147 5,219 5,308 5,605 5,810

47,731 Total 52,190 53,409 54,631 56,240 57,443

Ending Stocks none

841 United States 765 776 905 846 658

912 China 657 670 568 505 500

198 European Union 164 161 159 301 361

365 Argentina 260 283 305 330 340

435 Brazil 287 291 420 335 320

1,713 Other 1,614 1,611 1,185 1,262 1,304

4,464 Total 3,747 3,792 3,542 3,579 3,483

Most countries are on an October/September Marketing Year (MY). Mexico is on a September/August MY. Paraguay and Peru are

on an January/December MY and Bolivia is on a March/February MY.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 16 May 2019Office of Global Analysis

Page 17: Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean …...Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African

Table 10: Soybeans and Products: World Trade

Thousand Metric Tons

Marketing Year

Meal, Soybean Oil, Soybean Oilseed, Soybean

2019/202018/192017/182019/202018/192017/182019/202018/192017/18

Exports

North America 13,124 12,889 12,653 1,293 1,160 986 62,870 53,708 57,320

Canada (Aug-Jul) 357 400 300 157 160 145 4,925 5,400 4,250

United States (Oct-Sep) 12,752 12,474 12,338 1,110 975 816 57,945 48,308 53,070

South America 45,694 48,061 50,465 6,738 7,372 7,997 85,580 92,318 90,048

Argentina (Oct-Sep) 25,350 28,100 31,000 4,133 5,100 5,650 2,112 6,300 7,000

Brazil (Oct-Sep) 16,064 15,700 15,200 1,511 1,200 1,250 76,175 78,500 75,000

Paraguay (Jan-Dec) 2,625 2,580 2,580 702 710 715 6,029 5,600 6,200

South Asia 1,850 1,857 1,857 7 5 6 217 250 265

India (Oct-Sep) 1,844 1,850 1,850 7 5 6 217 250 265

Other 3,252 3,562 3,852 2,468 2,673 2,778 4,291 4,028 3,517

World Total 63,920 66,369 68,827 10,506 11,210 11,767 152,958 150,304 151,150

Imports

European Union (Oct-Sep) 18,354 18,700 19,000 284 325 325 14,584 15,500 15,100

East Asia 3,639 3,745 3,825 904 1,357 1,550 101,275 93,397 94,653

China (Oct-Sep) 23 30 50 481 900 1,100 94,095 86,000 87,000

Japan (Oct-Sep) 1,728 1,770 1,775 7 9 5 3,256 3,300 3,350

Korea, South (Oct-Sep) 1,846 1,900 1,950 276 300 295 1,256 1,365 1,450

Taiwan (Oct-Sep) 24 25 25 0 0 0 2,666 2,730 2,850

Southeast Asia 16,748 17,328 17,929 231 270 291 7,726 9,106 10,006

Indonesia (Oct-Sep) 4,454 4,850 5,000 30 34 38 2,483 2,725 2,950

Malaysia (Oct-Sep) 1,525 1,600 1,700 88 100 110 690 770 825

Philippines (Jan-Dec) 2,750 2,950 3,100 45 47 48 200 240 260

Thailand (Sep-Aug) 3,191 2,900 3,000 0 1 1 2,482 3,150 3,500

Vietnam (Jan-Dec) 4,800 5,000 5,100 50 70 75 1,850 2,200 2,450

North America 3,289 3,504 3,568 368 378 401 5,954 6,493 7,144

Canada (Aug-Jul) 1,022 1,050 1,120 21 22 22 487 800 800

Mexico (Sep-Aug) 1,818 2,000 2,130 195 175 175 4,873 5,230 5,800

South America 5,240 5,443 5,706 1,304 1,365 1,400 6,153 7,673 5,385

Brazil (Oct-Sep) 19 26 26 45 50 50 175 150 200

Colombia (Oct-Sep) 1,425 1,500 1,575 355 375 390 550 575 620

Central America 1,253 1,325 1,385 156 166 174 289 339 356

Caribbean 996 1,060 1,097 309 328 343 151 155 160

Middle East 3,821 4,600 4,930 328 358 375 6,425 6,125 6,450

Iran (Oct-Sep) 1,113 1,400 1,450 213 245 255 2,559 2,450 2,500

Israel (Oct-Sep) 135 150 165 10 10 10 439 430 450

Syria (Jan-Dec) 25 35 40 7 5 7 15 15 15

Turkey (Oct-Sep) 557 700 750 0 0 0 2,777 2,600 2,800

North Africa 2,869 3,180 3,391 1,534 1,631 1,658 3,965 4,100 4,310

Egypt (Oct-Sep) 571 825 925 227 250 260 3,255 3,350 3,500

Other 3,783 3,999 4,279 4,297 4,767 4,912 6,393 6,669 7,253

World Total 59,992 62,884 65,110 9,715 10,945 11,429 152,915 149,557 150,817

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 17 May 2019Office of Global Analysis

Page 18: Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean …...Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African

Table 11: Palm Oil: World Supply and Distribution

Thousand Metric Tons

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

May

2019/20

Production none

33,000 Indonesia 32,000 36,000 39,500 41,500 43,000

19,879 Malaysia 17,700 18,858 19,683 20,500 20,700

2,068 Thailand 1,804 2,500 2,780 2,900 3,000

1,110 Colombia 1,268 1,099 1,633 1,625 1,680

940 Nigeria 955 990 1,025 1,015 1,015

4,783 Other 5,174 5,820 5,989 6,040 6,119

61,780 Total 58,901 65,267 70,610 73,580 75,514

Imports none

9,139 India 8,860 9,341 8,608 10,500 10,750

6,935 European Union 6,717 7,219 7,057 7,100 6,950

5,696 China 4,689 4,881 5,320 6,150 6,700

2,826 Pakistan 2,720 3,075 3,025 3,200 3,300

1,280 Bangladesh 1,511 1,314 1,635 1,750 1,850

1,143 United States 1,307 1,367 1,529 1,475 1,500

1,489 Egypt 1,038 1,323 1,095 1,225 1,350

795 Philippines 941 1,165 1,095 1,225 1,250

854 Russia 933 849 1,016 1,025 1,050

789 Burma 788 809 847 880 900

13,842 Other 13,335 14,585 15,058 15,871 16,524

44,788 Total 42,839 45,928 46,285 50,401 52,124

Exports none

25,964 Indonesia 22,906 27,633 26,967 29,000 30,000

17,403 Malaysia 16,667 16,313 16,469 17,300 18,000

453 Guatemala 614 718 800 812 815

316 Colombia 420 502 697 720 720

607 Papua New Guinea 580 664 635 640 635

2,647 Other 2,650 3,155 2,965 3,320 3,373

47,390 Total 43,837 48,985 48,533 51,792 53,543

Domestic Consumption none

7,220 Indonesia 9,270 9,160 11,000 12,850 13,325

9,150 India 9,100 9,450 9,180 10,600 10,925

6,900 European Union 6,600 6,800 6,900 7,000 6,900

5,700 China 4,800 4,750 5,100 6,315 6,670

2,946 Malaysia 3,000 2,587 3,236 3,601 3,938

2,738 Pakistan 2,795 2,995 3,095 3,195 3,245

1,925 Thailand 1,835 2,106 2,315 2,480 2,555

1,275 Bangladesh 1,411 1,314 1,570 1,790 1,850

1,092 United States 1,269 1,355 1,565 1,411 1,480

1,410 Nigeria 1,320 1,240 1,290 1,340 1,390

1,350 Egypt 1,100 1,150 1,175 1,225 1,350

811 Philippines 930 1,250 1,280 1,310 1,340

925 Colombia 915 965 1,030 1,085 1,130

743 Burma 788 800 850 880 900

810 Russia 850 850 935 880 880

13,228 Other 13,719 14,867 15,793 16,582 17,220

58,223 Total 59,702 61,639 66,314 72,544 75,098

Ending Stocks none

2,434 Indonesia 2,258 1,470 3,004 2,654 2,329

2,611 Malaysia 1,460 2,016 2,529 2,728 2,240

456 European Union 425 710 721 676 581

335 Thailand 293 389 506 478 425

382 Pakistan 307 387 317 322 377

3,842 Other 3,518 3,860 3,803 3,667 3,670

10,060 Total 8,261 8,832 10,880 10,525 9,622

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 18 May 2019Office of Global Analysis

Page 19: Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean …...Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African

Table 12: Rapeseed and Products: World Supply and Distribution

Thousand Metric Tons

Marketing Year

Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Rapeseed Oilseed, Rapeseed

2019/202018/192017/182019/202018/192017/182019/202018/192017/18

Production

China (Oct-Sep) 10,209 9,914 9,796 6,747 6,552 6,474 13,274 12,850 13,100

India (Oct-Sep) 3,700 4,050 4,050 2,356 2,584 2,584 7,100 8,000 7,700

Canada (Aug-Jul) 5,230 5,275 5,330 4,120 4,150 4,200 21,328 21,100 21,100

Japan (Oct-Sep) 1,307 1,363 1,380 1,023 1,067 1,080 4 4 4

European Union (Jul-Jun) 13,851 13,281 13,224 10,157 9,739 9,697 22,171 20,061 19,700

Other 5,237 5,560 5,878 3,694 3,875 4,114 10,808 10,787 13,197

World Total 39,534 39,443 39,658 28,097 27,967 28,149 74,685 72,802 74,801

Imports

China (Oct-Sep) 1,258 1,325 1,225 1,067 1,350 1,400 4,715 4,000 4,100

India (Oct-Sep) 0 0 0 278 250 275 0 0 0

Canada (Aug-Jul) 17 15 17 14 15 15 108 100 100

Japan (Oct-Sep) 6 7 7 19 20 20 2,384 2,450 2,485

European Union (Jul-Jun) 242 500 500 158 250 250 4,007 4,500 4,800

Other 4,692 4,772 4,913 2,955 2,979 3,056 4,110 4,348 4,585

World Total 6,215 6,619 6,662 4,491 4,864 5,016 15,324 15,398 16,070

Exports

China (Oct-Sep) 14 14 15 16 17 15 0 0 0

India (Oct-Sep) 841 900 900 3 4 3 0 0 0

Canada (Aug-Jul) 4,537 4,700 4,760 3,170 3,300 3,325 10,849 10,600 10,100

Japan (Oct-Sep) 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0

European Union (Jul-Jun) 460 425 400 271 225 200 131 65 65

Other 499 776 788 1,140 1,474 1,509 5,215 5,363 6,766

World Total 6,351 6,815 6,863 4,601 5,021 5,053 16,195 16,028 16,931

Domestic Consumption

China (Oct-Sep) 11,453 11,225 11,006 8,600 8,326 8,159 17,850 17,350 17,150

India (Oct-Sep) 2,875 3,150 3,150 2,830 2,780 2,855 7,170 7,800 7,800

Canada (Aug-Jul) 680 615 620 970 980 1,010 9,430 9,699 10,100

Japan (Oct-Sep) 1,320 1,375 1,385 1,040 1,085 1,110 2,355 2,455 2,485

European Union (Jul-Jun) 13,700 13,300 13,250 10,000 9,700 9,775 25,300 24,300 24,200

Other 9,357 9,643 10,012 5,515 5,416 5,675 9,527 10,113 10,648

World Total 39,385 39,308 39,423 28,955 28,287 28,584 71,632 71,717 72,383

Ending Stocks

China (Oct-Sep) 0 0 0 1,741 1,300 1,000 1,203 703 753

India (Oct-Sep) 470 470 470 168 218 219 369 569 469

Canada (Aug-Jul) 117 92 59 487 372 252 2,499 3,400 4,400

Japan (Oct-Sep) 52 47 49 28 29 18 54 53 57

European Union (Jul-Jun) 206 262 336 358 422 394 1,622 1,818 2,053

Other 254 167 158 417 381 367 1,428 1,087 1,455

World Total 1,099 1,038 1,072 3,199 2,722 2,250 7,175 7,630 9,187

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 19 May 2019Office of Global Analysis

Page 20: Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean …...Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African

Table 13: Sunflowerseed and Products: World Supply and Distribution

Thousand Metric Tons

Marketing Year

Oilseed, Sunflowerseed Meal, Sunflowerseed Oil, Sunflowerseed

2019/202018/192017/182019/202018/192017/182019/202018/192017/18

Production

Argentina (Mar-Feb) 3,538 3,850 3,780 1,285 1,420 1,410 1,300 1,430 1,415

Russia (Sep-Aug) 10,362 12,710 12,500 4,167 4,823 5,090 4,192 4,853 5,121

Turkey (Sep-Aug) 1,550 1,800 1,550 1,128 1,155 1,155 912 903 903

Ukraine (Sep-Aug) 13,700 15,000 14,800 5,679 6,112 5,989 5,913 6,364 6,235

European Union (Oct-Sep) 10,174 9,700 9,700 4,860 4,752 4,806 3,803 3,718 3,760

Other 8,516 8,460 8,622 2,770 2,870 2,920 2,386 2,426 2,469

World Total 47,840 51,520 50,952 19,889 21,132 21,370 18,506 19,694 19,903

Imports

Argentina (Mar-Feb) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Russia (Sep-Aug) 47 50 55 39 20 20 30 20 20

Turkey (Sep-Aug) 720 500 600 931 940 960 503 450 425

Ukraine (Sep-Aug) 30 30 30 9 1 1 1 1 1

European Union (Oct-Sep) 512 550 600 3,485 3,500 3,400 1,529 1,500 1,550

Other 841 975 976 2,123 3,028 3,134 6,462 6,529 6,843

World Total 2,150 2,105 2,261 6,587 7,489 7,515 8,525 8,500 8,839

Exports

Argentina (Mar-Feb) 50 70 100 700 800 750 600 680 672

Russia (Sep-Aug) 97 150 200 1,202 1,350 1,500 2,307 2,300 2,600

Turkey (Sep-Aug) 56 50 50 7 15 17 390 360 300

Ukraine (Sep-Aug) 39 100 150 4,238 5,000 4,700 5,341 5,800 5,600

European Union (Oct-Sep) 630 450 500 406 400 500 526 530 540

Other 1,572 1,495 1,500 341 269 296 570 508 522

World Total 2,444 2,315 2,500 6,894 7,834 7,763 9,734 10,178 10,234

Domestic Consumption

Argentina (Mar-Feb) 3,350 3,685 3,650 580 620 640 712 729 744

Russia (Sep-Aug) 10,456 12,170 12,750 3,050 3,400 3,600 2,010 2,370 2,555

Turkey (Sep-Aug) 2,172 2,232 2,172 2,000 2,070 2,150 1,030 1,000 1,030

Ukraine (Sep-Aug) 13,940 14,950 14,650 1,350 1,380 1,360 580 575 575

European Union (Oct-Sep) 10,090 9,895 10,000 7,860 7,860 7,860 4,643 4,693 4,743

Other 7,906 8,015 8,161 4,606 5,634 5,799 8,176 8,579 8,804

World Total 47,914 50,947 51,383 19,446 20,964 21,409 17,151 17,946 18,451

Ending Stocks

Argentina (Mar-Feb) 1,276 1,371 1,401 50 50 70 14 35 34

Russia (Sep-Aug) 180 620 225 156 249 259 139 342 328

Turkey (Sep-Aug) 91 109 37 202 212 160 26 19 17

Ukraine (Sep-Aug) 172 152 182 534 267 197 118 108 169

European Union (Oct-Sep) 611 516 316 428 420 266 382 377 404

Other 597 522 459 122 117 76 1,217 1,085 1,071

World Total 2,927 3,290 2,620 1,492 1,315 1,028 1,896 1,966 2,023

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 20 May 2019Office of Global Analysis

Page 21: Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean …...Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African

Table 14: Minor Vegetable Oils: World Supply and Distribution

Thousand Metric Tons

Marketing Year

Oil, Peanut Oil, Cottonseed Oil, Olive

2019/202018/192017/182019/202018/192017/182019/202018/192017/18

Production

China (Oct-Sep) 2,864 2,792 2,872 1,382 1,382 1,382 5 5 5

India (Oct-Sep) 1,287 1,040 1,139 1,325 1,225 1,318 nr nr nr

Turkey (Nov-Oct) 7 7 7 232 239 244 263 220 250

United States (Aug-Jul) 105 99 105 255 240 277 16 16 16

European Union (Oct-Sep) 13 13 13 44 44 45 2,200 2,240 2,310

Other 1,677 1,700 1,721 1,942 2,040 2,094 771 605 779

World Total 5,953 5,651 5,857 5,180 5,170 5,360 3,255 3,086 3,360

Imports

China (Oct-Sep) 112 125 150 0 0 0 42 48 55

India (Oct-Sep) 0 0 0 3 3 0 nr nr nr

Turkey (Nov-Oct) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

United States (Aug-Jul) 32 27 32 0 1 1 322 340 350

European Union (Oct-Sep) 70 70 70 1 1 1 211 150 220

Other 23 24 24 59 46 46 341 358 384

World Total 237 246 276 63 51 48 916 896 1,009

Exports

China (Oct-Sep) 10 9 10 0 2 2 0 0 0

India (Oct-Sep) 19 17 17 0 0 0 nr nr nr

Turkey (Nov-Oct) 0 0 0 1 2 2 74 70 75

United States (Aug-Jul) 5 5 5 50 57 57 11 10 10

European Union (Oct-Sep) 4 4 4 1 1 1 645 670 700

Other 224 229 259 50 55 63 290 208 318

World Total 262 264 295 102 117 125 1,020 958 1,103

Domestic Consumption

China (Oct-Sep) 2,966 2,908 3,012 1,382 1,380 1,380 47 53 60

India (Oct-Sep) 1,310 1,008 1,132 1,345 1,225 1,321 nr nr nr

Turkey (Nov-Oct) 7 7 7 234 235 240 160 150 175

United States (Aug-Jul) 133 121 132 210 184 218 327 346 356

European Union (Oct-Sep) 79 79 79 44 44 45 1,570 1,720 1,820

Other 1,460 1,490 1,499 1,904 2,027 2,082 768 797 824

World Total 5,955 5,613 5,861 5,119 5,095 5,286 2,872 3,066 3,235

Ending Stocks

China (Oct-Sep) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

India (Oct-Sep) 195 210 200 21 24 21 nr nr nr

Turkey (Nov-Oct) 0 0 0 2 4 6 52 52 52

United States (Aug-Jul) 11 11 11 15 15 18 0 0 0

European Union (Oct-Sep) 5 5 5 0 0 0 369 369 379

Other 97 102 89 94 98 93 196 154 175

World Total 308 328 305 132 141 138 617 575 606

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 21 May 2019Office of Global Analysis

Page 22: Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean …...Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African

Table 15: World Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution

Million Metric Tons

Area

Harvested

Beginning

Stocks

Productio

n

Imports Total

Supply

Exports Food Use

Dom.

Domestic

Consumpti

Ending

Stocks

Major Oilseeds

405.57 31.4882.89554.2480.8367.85223.40 2006/07 394.20 77.16

393.18 32.0891.74560.7990.4577.16220.48 2007/08 403.04 66.01

399.64 33.7694.15560.2194.5566.01230.94 2008/09 405.11 60.95

446.97 34.75107.60610.52102.6060.95235.56 2009/10 425.37 77.55

460.33 36.00108.32642.91105.0377.55245.56 2010/11 445.91 88.69

446.81 36.23110.97648.64113.1588.69248.84 2011/12 465.66 72.01

474.77 36.61118.11661.56114.7872.01256.54 2012/13 471.07 72.38

503.73 37.48133.77709.66133.5572.38260.70 2013/14 494.38 81.52

538.26 38.98147.20763.37143.5981.52266.85 2014/15 520.37 95.80

524.05 40.39153.35773.36153.5295.80264.85 2015/16 526.12 93.89

575.00 42.11170.59835.06166.1893.89267.78 2016/17 554.63 109.85

580.49 43.27176.19864.64174.31109.85280.04 2017/18 572.70 115.75

600.97 43.95173.19887.80171.08115.75282.08 2018/19 583.97 130.64

598.03 45.03175.31901.89173.22130.64283.98 2019/20 596.16 130.42

Major Protein Meals

224.21 0.2869.25300.4067.308.89nr 2006/07 220.84 10.32

231.79 0.2972.93312.5470.4310.32nr 2007/08 229.22 10.38

230.11 0.3270.15308.9368.4410.38nr 2008/09 230.22 8.55

244.51 0.4072.70323.5170.448.55nr 2009/10 240.58 10.23

257.33 0.3377.92342.6875.1310.23nr 2010/11 251.80 12.97

267.38 0.4081.13359.5679.2112.97nr 2011/12 263.73 14.69

269.14 0.4379.40358.5974.7614.69nr 2012/13 266.29 12.90

282.68 0.4483.35375.9480.3612.90nr 2013/14 278.17 14.42

300.49 0.4586.40397.4282.5214.42nr 2014/15 293.05 17.97

305.27 0.4887.04406.6883.4417.97nr 2015/16 302.41 17.23

320.19 0.5988.40422.1884.7617.23nr 2016/17 317.05 16.73

331.53 0.6688.13433.2184.9616.73nr 2017/18 328.74 16.35

336.35 0.6792.32441.6188.9116.35nr 2018/19 333.33 15.96

343.52 0.6694.92450.8791.3915.96nr 2019/20 340.67 15.28

Major Vegetable Oils

122.79 96.4550.29183.6646.7314.1414.20 2006/07 118.73 14.64

129.88 99.5954.48194.5950.0814.6414.73 2007/08 125.17 14.95

135.18 103.2456.69203.8353.7014.9515.61 2008/09 131.18 15.96

142.46 107.5958.87214.1655.7415.9616.46 2009/10 138.27 17.03

149.08 109.9960.82223.2457.1417.0317.50 2010/11 142.63 19.79

158.06 115.9664.90239.8561.9919.7918.47 2011/12 151.73 23.22

161.21 121.1068.47249.9865.5523.2219.12 2012/13 158.57 22.94

171.58 125.7670.29261.7567.2322.9419.98 2013/14 166.67 24.78

177.02 131.2876.54272.8571.0524.7820.78 2014/15 170.68 25.63

176.35 135.5973.68273.0071.0225.6321.69 2015/16 177.96 21.36

188.48 140.0081.44285.2575.4121.3622.39 2016/17 183.40 20.41

198.78 144.6979.61293.9074.7220.4123.26 2017/18 192.20 22.09

203.95 149.6284.60306.4680.4222.0923.74 2018/19 200.43 21.44

208.22 153.8187.18313.1883.4221.5424.31 2019/20 205.90 20.10

Based on the aggregate of different marketing years

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 22 May 2019Office of Global Analysis

Page 23: Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean …...Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African

Table 16: World Soybeans and Products Supply and Distribution

Million Metric Tons

Area

Harvested

Beginning

Stocks

Productio

n

Imports Total

Supply

Exports Crush Domestic

Consumpti

Ending

Stocks

Oilseed, Soybean

235.70 195.5570.91360.1169.0555.3794.92 2006/07 224.38 64.82

219.55 202.6378.70363.0578.6864.8291.32 2007/08 229.67 54.68

212.34 194.8676.71344.9377.9054.6896.63 2008/09 222.45 45.77

260.73 210.4892.06394.0287.5145.77102.60 2009/10 239.16 62.79

264.68 222.2291.58417.2689.7962.79103.59 2010/11 252.54 73.15

240.96 229.1391.77408.6694.5573.15103.21 2011/12 259.18 57.71

269.08 231.81100.38423.9897.2057.71110.35 2012/13 265.13 58.47

283.31 242.86112.74454.85113.0758.47112.97 2013/14 277.81 64.31

320.73 264.75126.23509.40124.3664.31118.85 2014/15 303.87 79.31

316.57 275.13132.57529.22133.3579.31120.73 2015/16 316.24 80.41

350.58 287.80147.50575.20144.2280.41119.86 2016/17 331.55 96.16

341.54 295.14152.96590.62152.9296.16124.60 2017/18 338.56 99.10

362.08 301.63150.30610.74149.5699.10125.69 2018/19 347.25 113.18

355.66 308.20151.15619.66150.82113.18126.75 2019/20 355.42 113.09

Meal, Soybean

153.81 195.5754.84212.6952.746.14nr 2006/07 150.41 7.43

159.01 202.6556.50221.2254.787.43nr 2007/08 156.97 7.75

153.08 194.9453.27212.4951.677.75nr 2008/09 153.92 5.31

165.78 210.5655.94224.6353.545.31nr 2009/10 161.74 6.96

175.03 222.3158.89238.8556.876.96nr 2010/11 170.65 9.31

180.89 229.2458.71247.2257.029.31nr 2011/12 177.75 10.76

182.25 232.0458.39247.0854.0710.76nr 2012/13 178.84 9.85

190.45 243.1160.65258.0757.779.85nr 2013/14 186.56 10.86

208.48 265.0364.41280.0560.7110.86nr 2014/15 201.59 14.05

215.97 275.5265.53292.1262.1014.05nr 2015/16 213.15 13.44

225.93 288.3264.78299.7860.4013.44nr 2016/17 221.77 13.24

232.35 295.9463.92305.5859.9913.24nr 2017/18 229.23 12.43

236.34 302.4966.37311.6562.8812.43nr 2018/19 232.74 12.54

241.72 309.1268.83319.3765.1112.54nr 2019/20 238.45 12.09

Oil, Soybean

36.41 195.5510.5050.009.773.82nr 2006/07 35.45 4.05

37.79 202.6310.8852.1310.294.05nr 2007/08 37.28 3.97

36.16 194.869.2149.149.003.97nr 2008/09 36.34 3.59

38.97 210.489.1951.058.483.59nr 2009/10 38.16 3.70

41.48 222.229.6254.569.383.70nr 2010/11 40.48 4.46

42.82 229.138.5355.288.004.46nr 2011/12 42.46 4.29

43.34 231.919.3356.148.514.29nr 2012/13 42.59 4.22

45.24 242.959.4258.739.274.22nr 2013/14 45.31 3.99

49.28 264.8511.1263.3110.043.99nr 2014/15 47.73 4.46

51.56 275.2811.7767.7111.694.46nr 2015/16 52.19 3.75

53.81 288.0111.3368.5310.973.75nr 2016/17 53.41 3.79

55.17 295.3710.5168.689.723.79nr 2017/18 54.63 3.54

56.54 301.8811.2171.0310.953.54nr 2018/19 56.24 3.58

57.69 308.4811.7772.6911.433.58nr 2019/20 57.44 3.48

Based on the aggregate of different marketing years, primarily October through September.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 23 May 2019Office of Global Analysis

Page 24: Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean …...Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African

Table 17: World Rapeseed and Products Supply and Distribution

Million Metric Tons

Area

Harvested

Beginning

Stocks

Productio

n

Imports Total

Supply

Exports Food Use

Dom.

Domestic

Consumpti

Ending

Stocks

Oilseed, Rapeseed

45.75 0.356.6558.417.025.6326.76 2006/07 46.57 5.20

49.15 0.358.1861.917.575.2029.15 2007/08 49.20 4.53

58.17 0.4012.2074.8412.154.5331.20 2008/09 54.99 7.66

60.79 0.4210.9079.2610.817.6630.65 2009/10 59.66 8.70

60.52 0.4510.9379.4010.188.7033.58 2010/11 59.79 8.68

61.23 0.4512.9983.1513.248.6833.30 2011/12 63.34 6.83

63.31 0.4712.5782.9712.836.8335.79 2012/13 64.89 5.50

70.59 0.4915.1091.6415.555.5035.67 2013/14 68.82 7.73

70.43 0.5515.1192.4714.327.7335.05 2014/15 70.11 7.26

68.74 0.6514.3590.1414.157.2633.31 2015/16 69.62 6.17

69.43 0.6515.8091.1115.516.1733.37 2016/17 70.32 4.99

74.69 0.6516.2095.0015.324.9936.06 2017/18 71.63 7.18

72.80 0.6516.0395.3815.407.1836.54 2018/19 71.72 7.63

74.80 0.6516.9398.5016.077.6336.07 2019/20 72.38 9.19

Meal, Rapeseed

25.55 0.003.0029.603.210.83nr 2006/07 25.85 0.75

27.22 0.003.9331.853.880.75nr 2007/08 27.27 0.64

30.36 0.003.7534.783.770.64nr 2008/09 30.22 0.80

32.90 0.003.6337.593.880.80nr 2009/10 32.71 1.25

33.39 0.005.2839.975.331.25nr 2010/11 33.64 1.06

34.92 0.005.5641.545.561.06nr 2011/12 34.88 1.10

35.97 0.005.7042.695.611.10nr 2012/13 36.01 0.98

38.32 0.006.3545.806.500.98nr 2013/14 38.52 0.93

38.72 0.006.0745.656.010.93nr 2014/15 38.59 1.00

38.61 0.005.6945.325.721.00nr 2015/16 38.52 1.11

38.80 0.005.9845.815.901.11nr 2016/17 38.75 1.09

39.53 0.006.3546.846.221.09nr 2017/18 39.39 1.10

39.44 0.006.8247.166.621.10nr 2018/19 39.31 1.04

39.66 0.006.8647.366.661.04nr 2019/20 39.42 1.07

Oil, Rapeseed

17.79 13.222.0021.002.211.00nr 2006/07 18.19 0.81

18.95 13.521.9121.812.050.81nr 2007/08 18.80 1.10

21.33 14.412.4724.912.481.10nr 2008/09 20.99 1.45

23.23 15.232.7527.632.961.45nr 2009/10 22.75 2.13

23.41 15.663.4328.923.382.13nr 2010/11 23.20 2.28

24.72 16.423.9831.084.082.28nr 2011/12 23.79 3.30

25.39 16.473.9532.623.933.30nr 2012/13 23.73 4.94

27.02 17.773.8335.773.824.94nr 2013/14 25.68 6.27

27.41 18.884.0737.633.956.27nr 2014/15 27.04 6.52

27.34 19.814.1737.994.136.52nr 2015/16 28.18 5.64

27.54 20.344.4937.574.395.64nr 2016/17 28.91 4.17

28.10 20.504.6036.764.494.17nr 2017/18 28.96 3.20

27.97 20.215.0236.034.863.20nr 2018/19 28.29 2.72

28.15 20.405.0535.895.022.72nr 2019/20 28.58 2.25

Based on the aggregate of different marketing years.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 24 May 2019Office of Global Analysis

Page 25: Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean …...Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African

Table 18: World Sunflower and Products Supply and Distribution

Million Metric Tons

Area

Harvested

Beginning

Stocks

Productio

n

Imports Exports Domestic

Consumpti

Ending

Stocks

Oilseed, Sunflowerseed

30.08 4.0229.441.911.813.4823.45 2006/07

27.35 3.7227.481.461.294.0221.34 2007/08

32.92 3.8532.562.151.923.7223.89 2008/09

31.56 2.6032.831.551.563.8522.97 2009/10

32.70 2.2632.881.781.622.6023.08 2010/11

38.62 2.5438.111.931.702.2624.62 2011/12

34.99 2.8134.631.451.362.5423.60 2012/13

41.51 3.3040.691.961.622.8124.02 2013/14

39.19 2.9039.491.661.563.3023.12 2014/15

40.57 2.6540.672.011.872.9023.42 2015/16

48.05 3.3047.122.462.172.6525.83 2016/17

47.84 2.9347.912.442.153.3026.05 2017/18

51.52 3.2950.952.322.112.9326.23 2018/19

50.95 2.6251.382.502.263.2926.12 2019/20

Meal, Sunflowerseed

11.87 0.2411.903.493.440.31nr 2006/07

11.11 0.3010.693.312.960.24nr 2007/08

13.08 0.8112.474.304.200.30nr 2008/09

13.42 1.0012.834.093.690.81nr 2009/10

13.31 1.0712.724.574.061.00nr 2010/11

15.60 1.7014.606.806.421.07nr 2011/12

14.15 0.8014.835.134.931.70nr 2012/13

16.83 1.4515.736.225.760.80nr 2013/14

16.16 1.6915.585.875.531.45nr 2014/15

16.51 1.7416.196.235.961.69nr 2015/16

19.34 1.3619.257.446.961.74nr 2016/17

19.89 1.4919.456.896.591.36nr 2017/18

21.13 1.3220.967.837.491.49nr 2018/19

21.37 1.0321.417.767.521.32nr 2019/20

Oil, Sunflowerseed

10.74 1.2010.164.053.461.21nr 2006/07

10.16 1.209.413.532.781.20nr 2007/08

11.89 1.9410.754.554.151.20nr 2008/09

12.12 1.9011.464.503.811.94nr 2009/10

12.08 1.8311.324.543.701.90nr 2010/11

14.35 3.0312.496.485.831.83nr 2011/12

12.86 2.3013.195.575.163.03nr 2012/13

15.63 2.9514.157.796.962.30nr 2013/14

14.97 2.5914.127.396.182.95nr 2014/15

15.39 1.6715.228.117.022.59nr 2015/16

18.16 1.7516.5410.428.881.67nr 2016/17

18.51 1.9017.159.738.531.75nr 2017/18

19.69 1.9717.9510.188.501.90nr 2018/19

19.90 2.0218.4510.238.841.97nr 2019/20

Based on the aggregate of different marketing years, primarily September through August.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 25 May 2019Office of Global Analysis

Page 26: Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean …...Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African

Table 19: World Palm Oil, Coconut Oil, and Fish Meal Supply and Distribution

Million Metric Tons

Beginning

Stocks

Productio

n

Imports Total

Supply

Exports Industrial

Dom.

Food Use

Dom.

Domestic

Consumpti

Ending

Stocks

Oil, Palm

26.25 26.837.5728.3969.3837.625.51 2006/07 34.90 6.10

29.93 29.558.8532.5277.4741.456.10 2007/08 38.97 5.99

33.09 31.949.6335.0683.5744.495.99 2008/09 42.23 6.29

34.66 33.5810.0636.3887.3246.386.29 2009/10 44.24 6.70

35.42 34.2710.7337.4191.3349.216.70 2010/11 45.57 8.35

38.60 36.8912.4739.9499.5052.558.35 2011/12 50.01 9.55

42.12 40.3714.6543.19108.0556.379.55 2012/13 55.67 9.18

41.94 41.1016.3143.24110.4159.289.18 2013/14 58.06 9.11

44.79 43.3914.1347.39115.6761.789.11 2014/15 58.22 10.06

42.84 42.7016.2943.84111.8058.9010.06 2015/16 59.70 8.26

45.93 44.6416.2448.99119.4665.278.26 2016/17 61.64 8.83

46.29 46.6518.8448.53125.7370.618.83 2017/18 66.31 10.88

50.40 50.4921.1751.79134.8673.5810.88 2018/19 72.54 10.53

52.12 52.3621.8253.54138.2675.5110.63 2019/20 75.10 9.62

Oil, Coconut

1.88 1.661.431.745.413.070.46 2006/07 3.18 0.49

1.91 1.781.511.935.803.400.49 2007/08 3.32 0.55

1.67 1.651.561.485.593.360.55 2008/09 3.25 0.86

2.30 2.081.702.076.633.470.86 2009/10 3.82 0.75

1.80 1.861.671.806.143.590.75 2010/11 3.57 0.77

1.84 1.921.541.866.003.390.77 2011/12 3.49 0.64

1.89 1.981.701.936.163.620.64 2012/13 3.72 0.51

1.74 1.741.541.915.633.380.51 2013/14 3.32 0.40

1.82 1.741.501.945.593.370.40 2014/15 3.28 0.38

1.61 1.671.531.595.303.310.38 2015/16 3.23 0.47

1.50 1.551.491.915.363.390.47 2016/17 3.07 0.39

1.71 1.681.681.735.763.660.39 2017/18 3.39 0.64

1.69 1.711.711.856.003.670.64 2018/19 3.45 0.70

1.77 1.761.721.786.053.580.70 2019/20 3.52 0.75

Meal, Fish

2.82 0.000.052.658.695.140.73 2006/07 5.08 0.97

3.17 0.000.052.949.275.140.97 2007/08 5.50 0.83

3.26 0.000.053.089.295.200.83 2008/09 5.51 0.71

2.76 0.000.052.417.714.240.71 2009/10 5.03 0.28

2.77 0.000.052.698.605.550.28 2010/11 5.22 0.69

3.05 0.000.052.808.444.710.69 2011/12 5.36 0.28

2.47 0.000.052.327.594.840.28 2012/13 4.81 0.45

2.74 0.000.052.477.644.450.45 2013/14 4.94 0.23

2.50 0.000.052.287.424.690.23 2014/15 4.87 0.26

2.46 0.000.052.217.244.510.26 2015/16 4.75 0.27

3.07 0.000.052.538.214.870.27 2016/17 5.42 0.26

3.01 0.000.052.508.254.980.26 2017/18 5.32 0.43

2.86 0.000.052.598.004.710.43 2018/19 5.19 0.21

2.98 0.000.052.618.144.940.21 2019/20 5.31 0.22

Based on the aggregate of different marketing years.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 26 May 2019Office of Global Analysis

Page 27: Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean …...Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African

Table 20: United States Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution Local Marketing Year

Thousand Metric Tons

Area

Harvested

Beginning

Stocks

Productio

n

Imports Total

Supply

Exports Crush Domestic

Consumpti

Ending

Stocks

Major Oilseeds

96,843 53,48331,647112,0771,03314,20136,962 2006/07 63,407 17,023

82,453 53,49533,045100,7411,26517,02331,970 2007/08 60,787 6,909

89,201 49,34235,69497,4051,2956,90935,265 2008/09 56,091 5,620

98,951 51,48341,691105,6371,0665,62035,511 2009/10 58,402 5,544

100,432 49,32341,938106,9219455,54437,179 2010/11 57,664 7,319

92,442 50,31637,813101,0461,2857,31935,131 2011/12 57,621 5,612

93,323 50,25037,156100,5401,6055,61236,676 2012/13 57,621 5,763

98,986 51,45545,569107,8163,0675,76335,428 2013/14 58,294 3,953

116,050 55,10851,109121,8541,8513,95338,991 2014/15 63,989 6,756

115,891 55,05553,969123,7771,1306,75638,403 2015/16 62,940 6,868

126,942 56,25760,081135,3121,5026,86839,247 2016/17 65,630 9,601

131,483 60,16859,188142,5001,4169,60142,801 2017/18 69,485 13,827

133,853 61,37749,499148,8121,13213,82741,625 2018/19 70,527 28,786

124,247 62,26954,295154,4771,44428,78640,822 2019/20 72,127 28,055

Major Protein Meals

41,390 53,4838,26443,4601,709361nr 2006/07 34,811 385

40,786 53,4958,70643,1631,992385nr 2007/08 34,123 334

37,631 49,3427,94039,7821,817334nr 2008/09 31,596 246

39,992 51,48310,30841,5821,344246nr 2009/10 30,933 341

38,032 49,3238,48840,6142,241341nr 2010/11 31,748 378

39,450 50,3169,17042,8603,032378nr 2011/12 33,354 336

38,592 50,25010,46042,3213,393336nr 2012/13 31,547 314

39,291 51,45510,80343,4033,798314nr 2013/14 32,308 292

43,210 55,10812,14447,3753,873292nr 2014/15 34,941 290

42,778 55,05511,17947,1464,078290nr 2015/16 35,692 275

43,111 56,25710,82647,3103,924275nr 2016/17 36,077 407

47,026 60,16813,04051,1793,746407nr 2017/18 37,577 562

46,929 61,37712,77851,2773,786562nr 2018/19 38,035 464

47,801 62,26912,64551,9673,702464nr 2019/20 38,903 419

Major Vegetable Oils

10,450 53,4831,33314,7742,5271,7970 2006/07 11,700 1,741

10,544 53,4951,67915,3943,1091,7410 2007/08 12,251 1,464

9,667 49,3421,45714,3613,2301,4640 2008/09 11,167 1,737

10,058 51,4831,94815,1333,3381,7370 2009/10 11,194 1,991

9,775 49,3231,86115,3783,6121,9910 2010/11 11,794 1,723

10,032 50,3161,14615,5863,8311,7230 2011/12 12,873 1,567

10,231 50,2501,38715,5993,8011,5670 2012/13 13,068 1,144

10,425 51,4551,11615,5854,0161,1440 2013/14 13,497 972

10,938 55,1081,17416,1404,2309720 2014/15 13,680 1,286

11,211 55,0551,24817,0244,5271,2860 2015/16 14,574 1,202

11,434 56,2571,41517,3674,7311,2020 2016/17 14,720 1,232

12,108 60,1681,34918,1274,7871,2320 2017/18 15,538 1,240

12,437 61,3771,21218,3154,6381,2400 2018/19 15,868 1,235

12,563 62,2691,05918,5834,7851,2350 2019/20 16,478 1,046

Based on the aggregate of different marketing years

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 27 May 2019Office of Global Analysis

Page 28: Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean …...Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African

Table 21: United States Soybeans and Products Supply and Distribution Local Marketing Years

Thousand Metric Tons

Area

Harvested

Beginning

Stocks

Productio

n

Imports Total

Supply

Exports Crush Domestic

Consumpti

Ending

Stocks

Oilseed, Soybean

87,001 49,19830,38699,47624612,22930,190 2006/07 53,473 15,617

72,859 49,08131,53888,74526915,61725,959 2007/08 51,627 5,580

80,749 45,23034,81786,6903615,58030,222 2008/09 48,112 3,761

91,470 47,67340,79895,6283973,76130,907 2009/10 50,724 4,106

90,663 44,85140,95995,1623934,10631,003 2010/11 48,351 5,852

84,291 46,34837,18690,5824395,85229,856 2011/12 48,786 4,610

82,791 45,96736,12988,5041,1034,61030,814 2012/13 48,550 3,825

91,363 47,19244,59497,1411,9533,82530,850 2013/14 50,043 2,504

106,905 50,97550,136110,3139042,50433,431 2014/15 54,989 5,188

106,869 51,33552,870112,6986415,18833,080 2015/16 54,474 5,354

116,931 51,74258,960122,8916065,35433,470 2016/17 55,723 8,208

120,065 55,92657,945128,8675948,20836,236 2017/18 58,999 11,923

123,664 57,15348,308136,05046311,92335,657 2018/19 60,656 27,086

112,945 57,56153,070140,57554427,08633,918 2019/20 61,093 26,412

Meal, Soybean

39,037 49,1987,98739,464142285nr 2006/07 31,166 311

38,359 49,0818,38438,798128311nr 2007/08 30,147 267

35,473 45,2307,70835,82080267nr 2008/09 27,899 213

37,836 47,67310,12538,194145213nr 2009/10 27,795 274

35,608 44,8518,23836,045163274nr 2010/11 27,489 318

37,217 46,3488,84537,731196318nr 2011/12 28,614 272

36,174 45,96710,11136,668222272nr 2012/13 26,308 249

36,909 47,19210,50437,505347249nr 2013/14 26,774 227

40,880 50,97511,89141,409302227nr 2014/15 29,282 236

40,525 51,33510,84441,127366236nr 2015/16 30,044 239

40,630 51,74210,50541,186317239nr 2016/17 30,318 363

44,657 55,92612,75245,469449363nr 2017/18 32,213 504

44,538 57,15312,47445,496454504nr 2018/19 32,614 408

45,178 57,56112,33845,904318408nr 2019/20 33,203 363

Oil, Soybean

9,294 49,19885110,676171,365nr 2006/07 8,426 1,399

9,335 49,0811,32010,764301,399nr 2007/08 8,317 1,127

8,503 45,2309959,671411,127nr 2008/09 7,378 1,298

8,897 47,6731,52410,242471,298nr 2009/10 7,173 1,545

8,568 44,8511,46610,185721,545nr 2010/11 7,506 1,213

8,954 46,34866410,235681,213nr 2011/12 8,396 1,175

8,990 45,96798110,254891,175nr 2012/13 8,522 751

9,131 47,1928529,95775751nr 2013/14 8,576 529

9,706 50,97591410,355120529nr 2014/15 8,600 841

9,956 51,3351,01710,927130841nr 2015/16 9,145 765

10,035 51,7421,15910,945145765nr 2016/17 9,010 776

10,783 55,9261,11011,711152776nr 2017/18 9,696 905

11,145 57,15397512,231181905nr 2018/19 10,410 846

11,129 57,56181612,179204846nr 2019/20 10,705 658

Data based on Local Marketing Year (MY). Soybeans are on a September/August MY, and Soybean

Meal and Oil are on an October/September MY.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 28 May 2019Office of Global Analysis

Page 29: Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean …...Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African

Table 22: Brazil Soybeans and Products Supply and Distribution Local Marketing Years

Thousand Metric Tons

Area

Harvested

Beginning

Stocks

Productio

n

Imports Total

Supply

Exports Crush Domestic

Consumpti

Ending

Stocks

Oilseed, Soybean (Local)

59,000 31,51123,80564,3911085,28320,700 2006/07 33,961 6,625

61,000 31,89524,51567,708836,62521,300 2007/08 34,365 8,828

57,800 30,77928,04166,7521248,82821,700 2008/09 33,129 5,582

69,000 35,70029,18874,7321505,58223,500 2009/10 38,100 7,444

75,300 37,26433,78982,784407,44424,200 2010/11 39,714 9,281

66,500 36,23031,90576,0792989,28125,000 2011/12 38,730 5,444

82,000 36,43242,82687,6842405,44427,700 2012/13 38,982 5,876

86,700 38,19545,74793,1555795,87630,100 2013/14 40,795 6,613

97,200 40,33954,635104,1423296,61332,100 2014/15 42,989 6,518

96,500 39,96752,100103,3803626,51833,300 2015/16 42,617 8,663

114,600 42,31268,807123,5302678,66333,900 2016/17 44,962 9,761

122,000 43,42584,155131,9461859,76135,150 2017/18 45,439 2,352

117,000 42,85069,000119,5021502,35236,100 2018/19 45,502 5,000

123,000 43,85077,800128,2002005,00039,600 2019/20 46,600 3,800

Meal, Soybean (Local)

24,420 31,51112,34625,429146863nr 2006/07 10,800 2,283

24,720 31,89512,70927,1461432,283nr 2007/08 12,300 2,137

23,850 30,77912,15326,073862,137nr 2008/09 12,800 1,120

27,670 35,70014,14728,862721,120nr 2009/10 13,187 1,528

28,880 37,26414,45230,459511,528nr 2010/11 13,400 2,607

28,080 36,23013,85430,702152,607nr 2011/12 14,000 2,848

28,230 36,43213,61931,108302,848nr 2012/13 14,800 2,689

29,560 38,19513,72132,276272,689nr 2013/14 15,300 3,255

31,220 40,33915,10634,491163,255nr 2014/15 16,000 3,385

30,930 39,96714,65134,342273,385nr 2015/16 16,800 2,891

32,780 42,31213,91535,706352,891nr 2016/17 17,361 4,430

33,650 43,42516,97638,100204,430nr 2017/18 17,800 3,324

33,190 42,85015,20036,539253,324nr 2018/19 18,190 3,149

34,000 43,85015,20037,175263,149nr 2019/20 18,975 3,000

Oil, Soybean (Local)

6,050 31,5112,5216,38462272nr 2006/07 3,505 358

6,120 31,8952,1986,4879358nr 2007/08 4,005 284

5,910 30,7791,4966,23541284nr 2008/09 4,395 344

6,850 35,7001,6327,1962344nr 2009/10 5,060 504

7,150 37,2641,7587,6540504nr 2010/11 5,305 591

6,950 36,2301,6887,5432591nr 2011/12 5,395 460

6,990 36,4321,4107,4544460nr 2012/13 5,528 516

7,330 38,1951,3267,8460516nr 2013/14 5,955 565

7,740 40,3391,6508,33732565nr 2014/15 6,220 467

7,670 39,9671,2508,21174467nr 2015/16 6,490 471

8,120 42,3121,3238,64251471nr 2016/17 6,877 442

8,325 43,4251,4108,80841442nr 2017/18 6,990 408

8,220 42,8501,2508,67850408nr 2018/19 7,126 302

8,415 43,8501,2508,76750302nr 2019/20 7,200 317

Data based on Brazil's local February/January Marketing Year (MY).

Where February 2012 - January 2013 is the 2011/12 MY.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 29 May 2019Office of Global Analysis

Page 30: Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean …...Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African

Table 23: Argentina Soybeans and Products Supply and Distribution Local Marketing Years

Thousand Metric Tons

Area

Harvested

Beginning

Stocks

Productio

n

Imports Total

Supply

Exports Crush Domestic

Consumpti

Ending

Stocks

Oilseed, Soybean (Local)

48,800 35,96312,13351,8042,33666816,300 2006/07 37,593 2,078

46,200 31,88311,80351,2252,9472,07816,371 2007/08 33,608 5,814

32,000 28,5553,48637,9711575,81416,000 2008/09 30,405 4,080

54,500 39,19613,70158,58004,08018,600 2009/10 41,496 3,383

49,000 37,52110,38952,396133,38318,300 2010/11 39,901 2,106

40,100 30,6816,09842,20822,10617,577 2011/12 33,431 2,679

49,300 35,0097,81751,98122,67919,750 2012/13 40,009 4,155

53,400 38,5037,43457,55724,15519,250 2013/14 43,503 6,620

61,450 45,11011,67068,2111416,62019,350 2014/15 50,360 6,181

58,800 43,0429,04666,2851,3046,18119,350 2015/16 49,242 7,997

55,000 40,9407,24565,6282,6317,99717,335 2016/17 47,440 10,943

37,800 36,3503,71955,9997,25610,94316,300 2017/18 43,050 9,230

56,000 44,5006,50069,2304,0009,23017,100 2018/19 51,393 11,337

53,000 45,0007,00068,2373,90011,33717,500 2019/20 52,150 9,087

Meal, Soybean (Local)

27,857 35,96328,10829,38621,527nr 2006/07 544 734

24,839 31,88324,38925,5763734nr 2007/08 652 535

22,519 28,55521,30323,0584535nr 2008/09 750 1,005

30,493 39,19628,38431,49801,005nr 2009/10 850 2,264

29,181 37,52127,48531,44502,264nr 2010/11 1,085 2,875

23,946 30,68121,97326,82102,875nr 2011/12 1,550 3,298

27,150 35,00923,93730,44803,298nr 2012/13 1,950 4,561

29,528 38,50327,47334,08904,561nr 2013/14 2,200 4,416

34,737 45,11031,86739,15414,416nr 2014/15 2,530 4,757

33,102 43,04230,98037,85904,757nr 2015/16 2,760 4,119

31,235 40,94029,26535,35404,119nr 2016/17 2,930 3,159

27,400 36,35024,50030,55903,159nr 2017/18 3,139 2,920

33,600 44,50029,50036,52002,920nr 2018/19 3,200 3,820

34,000 45,00031,30037,82003,820nr 2019/20 3,350 3,170

Oil, Soybean (Local)

6,917 35,9636,5157,4020485nr 2006/07 675 212

6,037 31,8834,9876,2490212nr 2007/08 1,125 137

5,448 28,5553,7095,5850137nr 2008/09 1,716 160

7,460 39,1965,1807,6200160nr 2009/10 2,215 225

7,148 37,5214,2277,3730225nr 2010/11 2,755 391

5,840 30,6813,4336,26635391nr 2011/12 2,550 283

6,616 35,0094,2816,95859283nr 2012/13 2,375 302

7,191 38,5034,2967,51926302nr 2013/14 2,843 380

8,753 45,1106,3129,1385380nr 2014/15 2,308 518

8,382 43,0425,3868,9000518nr 2015/16 3,055 459

7,925 40,9404,7168,3840459nr 2016/17 3,195 473

7,160 36,3504,5707,6330473nr 2017/18 2,763 300

8,650 44,5005,5008,9500300nr 2018/19 3,075 375

8,800 45,0005,6509,1750375nr 2019/20 3,175 350

Data based on Argentina's Local April/March Marketing Year (MY).

Where April 2012 - March 2013 is the 2011/12 MY.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 30 May 2019Office of Global Analysis

Page 31: Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean …...Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African

Table 24: South East Asia Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution

Thousand Metric Tons

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

May

2019/20

none

Production none

4,175 Oilseed, Copra 4,054 4,243 4,626 4,656 4,486

14,403 Oilseed, Palm Kernel 13,705 15,058 16,274 17,000 17,520

995 Oilseed, Soybean 947 885 846 817 799

3,811 Other 3,705 3,707 3,674 3,617 3,587

23,384 Total 22,411 23,893 25,420 26,090 26,392

none

Domestic Consumption none

847 Meal, Fish 795 921 916 938 943

745 Meal, Rapeseed 427 378 458 520 555

16,946 Meal, Soybean 18,257 18,756 19,462 20,307 21,228

2,796 Other 3,061 3,421 3,599 3,751 3,832

21,334 Total 22,540 23,476 24,435 25,516 26,558

none

SME none

1,228 Meal, Fish 1,152 1,333 1,324 1,355 1,363

530 Meal, Rapeseed 304 269 326 370 395

16,896 Meal, Soybean 18,187 18,666 19,352 20,187 21,108

1,487 Other 1,598 1,746 1,817 1,872 1,902

20,141 Total 21,242 22,014 22,818 23,785 24,767

none

Imports none

236 Meal, Fish 278 351 370 372 370

675 Meal, Rapeseed 384 360 501 490 525

14,972 Meal, Soybean 15,661 16,097 16,748 17,328 17,929

563 Other 684 739 701 700 735

16,446 Total 17,007 17,547 18,320 18,890 19,559

none

Industrial Dom. Cons. none

5,218 Oil, Palm 7,226 6,767 9,005 11,060 11,630

0 Oil, Rapeseed 0 0 0 0 0

39 Oil, Soybean 42 46 45 50 55

0 Oil, Sunflowerseed 0 0 0 0 0

4,012 Other 3,988 4,191 4,708 4,984 5,121

9,269 Total 11,256 11,004 13,758 16,094 16,806

none

Food Use Dom. Cons. none

9,053 Oil, Palm 9,231 9,740 10,195 10,605 10,985

54 Oil, Rapeseed 26 31 17 23 26

574 Oil, Soybean 652 672 635 741 800

131 Oil, Sunflowerseed 131 131 131 131 131

1,382 Other 1,421 1,476 1,567 1,653 1,712

11,194 Total 11,461 12,050 12,545 13,153 13,654

none

Domestic Consumption none

14,689 Oil, Palm 16,873 16,975 19,723 22,238 23,215

54 Oil, Rapeseed 26 31 17 23 26

613 Oil, Soybean 694 718 680 791 855

131 Oil, Sunflowerseed 131 131 131 131 131

5,404 Other 5,419 5,677 6,285 6,647 6,843

20,891 Total 23,143 23,532 26,836 29,830 31,070

none

Imports none

3,765 Oil, Palm 3,600 3,697 3,553 3,877 4,012

13 Oil, Rapeseed 13 12 12 13 13

321 Oil, Soybean 290 273 231 270 291

0 Oil, Sunflowerseed 0 0 0 0 0

671 Other 567 499 567 537 589

4,770 Total 4,470 4,481 4,363 4,697 4,905

Southeast Asia includes Brunei, Burma, Cambonia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.

SME - 44 Percent Protein Soybean Meal Equivalent

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 31 May 2019Office of Global Analysis

Page 32: Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean …...Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African

Table 25: Middle East Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution

Thousand Metric Tons

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

May

2019/20

none

Production none

1,243 Oilseed, Cottonseed 1,032 1,228 1,447 1,502 1,528

256 Oilseed, Rapeseed 254 263 200 228 228

280 Oilseed, Soybean 242 241 292 257 272

1,232 Oilseed, Sunflowerseed 1,147 1,376 1,609 1,859 1,609

124 Other 148 164 165 154 150

3,135 Total 2,823 3,272 3,713 4,000 3,787

none

Domestic Consumption none

85 Meal, Fish 110 125 120 135 135

838 Meal, Rapeseed 835 855 778 777 785

7,065 Meal, Soybean 7,456 7,885 8,241 8,748 9,177

2,919 Other 2,892 3,366 3,707 3,757 3,881

10,907 Total 11,293 12,231 12,846 13,417 13,978

none

SME none

123 Meal, Fish 159 181 173 195 195

596 Meal, Rapeseed 594 608 554 553 559

7,063 Meal, Soybean 7,454 7,883 8,239 8,746 9,175

1,967 Other 1,927 2,249 2,457 2,515 2,594

9,750 Total 10,134 10,921 11,423 12,009 12,522

none

Imports none

79 Meal, Fish 108 125 130 120 130

217 Meal, Rapeseed 196 173 180 188 193

4,319 Meal, Soybean 4,112 4,950 3,821 4,600 4,930

1,413 Other 1,497 1,764 1,813 1,780 1,832

6,028 Total 5,913 7,012 5,944 6,688 7,085

none

Imports none

2,127 Oil, Palm 2,309 2,521 2,564 2,947 3,072

45 Oil, Rapeseed 61 52 52 54 54

506 Oil, Soybean 414 345 328 358 375

1,760 Oil, Sunflowerseed 1,654 2,222 1,721 1,725 1,745

465 Other 171 174 159 182 188

4,903 Total 4,609 5,314 4,824 5,266 5,434

none

Industrial Dom. Cons. none

185 Oil, Palm 185 180 180 180 185

35 Oil, Rapeseed 30 30 15 8 7

137 Oil, Soybean 126 125 135 138 144

20 Oil, Sunflowerseed 20 20 20 20 20

69 Other 58 54 50 56 56

446 Total 419 409 400 402 412

none

Food Use Dom. Cons. none

1,507 Oil, Palm 1,814 1,935 2,156 2,387 2,517

279 Oil, Rapeseed 324 259 228 215 216

901 Oil, Soybean 929 947 980 1,002 1,038

1,951 Oil, Sunflowerseed 2,054 2,301 2,352 2,348 2,414

858 Other 640 636 682 688 724

5,496 Total 5,761 6,078 6,398 6,640 6,909

none

Domestic Consumption none

1,692 Oil, Palm 1,999 2,115 2,336 2,567 2,702

314 Oil, Rapeseed 354 289 243 223 223

1,116 Oil, Soybean 1,135 1,127 1,175 1,210 1,257

1,981 Oil, Sunflowerseed 2,084 2,331 2,382 2,378 2,444

934 Other 704 700 739 751 787

6,037 Total 6,276 6,562 6,875 7,129 7,413

Middle East includes Bahrain, Gaza Strip, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey,

United Arab Emirates, West Banks, and Yemen.

SME - 44 Percent Protein Soybean Meal Equivalent

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 32 May 2019Office of Global Analysis

Page 33: Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean …...Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African

Table 26: European Union Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution

Thousand Metric Tons

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

May

2019/20

none

Production none

24,587 Oilseed, Rapeseed 21,997 20,538 22,171 20,061 19,700

1,832 Oilseed, Soybean 2,320 2,410 2,539 2,681 2,775

8,974 Oilseed, Sunflowerseed 7,721 8,651 10,174 9,700 9,700

510 Other 409 418 487 550 569

35,903 Total 32,447 32,017 35,371 32,992 32,744

none

Domestic Consumption none

529 Meal, Fish 581 536 630 620 620

14,200 Meal, Rapeseed 13,800 13,680 13,700 13,300 13,250

30,142 Meal, Soybean 30,692 30,242 30,042 31,042 31,342

9,369 Other 9,181 9,907 10,276 10,182 10,087

54,240 Total 54,254 54,365 54,648 55,144 55,299

none

SME none

767 Meal, Fish 842 775 910 896 896

10,103 Meal, Rapeseed 9,819 9,733 9,748 9,463 9,427

30,100 Meal, Soybean 30,650 30,200 30,000 31,000 31,300

5,394 Other 5,242 5,795 5,935 5,910 5,879

46,365 Total 46,554 46,502 46,593 47,269 47,502

none

Imports none

279 Meal, Fish 284 193 267 250 250

453 Meal, Rapeseed 409 219 242 500 500

19,623 Meal, Soybean 19,213 18,794 18,354 18,700 19,000

5,469 Other 5,507 5,691 5,804 5,707 5,507

25,824 Total 25,413 24,897 24,667 25,157 25,257

none

Industrial Dom. Cons. none

3,400 Oil, Palm 3,400 3,700 3,800 3,900 3,800

7,095 Oil, Rapeseed 7,200 7,100 6,950 6,700 6,750

990 Oil, Soybean 930 850 870 925 950

310 Oil, Sunflowerseed 420 400 330 330 330

515 Other 475 525 565 585 585

12,310 Total 12,425 12,575 12,515 12,440 12,415

none

Food Use Dom. Cons. none

3,300 Oil, Palm 3,000 2,900 2,900 2,900 2,900

3,200 Oil, Rapeseed 2,800 2,950 3,000 2,950 2,975

1,000 Oil, Soybean 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300

3,350 Oil, Sunflowerseed 3,850 4,200 4,300 4,350 4,400

2,317 Other 2,358 2,151 2,418 2,588 2,689

13,167 Total 13,308 13,501 13,918 14,088 14,264

none

Domestic Consumption none

6,900 Oil, Palm 6,600 6,800 6,900 7,000 6,900

10,345 Oil, Rapeseed 10,050 10,100 10,000 9,700 9,775

2,040 Oil, Soybean 2,285 2,205 2,225 2,280 2,305

3,670 Oil, Sunflowerseed 4,280 4,610 4,643 4,693 4,743

2,854 Other 2,848 2,691 2,998 3,188 3,289

25,809 Total 26,063 26,406 26,766 26,861 27,012

none

Imports none

6,935 Oil, Palm 6,717 7,219 7,057 7,100 6,950

261 Oil, Rapeseed 207 153 158 250 250

253 Oil, Soybean 325 285 284 325 325

829 Oil, Sunflowerseed 1,418 1,791 1,529 1,500 1,550

1,603 Other 1,396 1,422 1,618 1,571 1,661

9,881 Total 10,063 10,870 10,646 10,746 10,736

European Union includes Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France,

Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania,

Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, and United Kingdom.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 33 May 2019Office of Global Analysis

Page 34: Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean …...Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African

Table 27: China Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution

Thousand Metric Tons

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

May

2019/20

none

Production none

15,901 Oilseed, Peanut 15,961 16,361 17,092 17,000 17,500

13,914 Oilseed, Rapeseed 13,859 13,128 13,274 12,850 13,100

12,690 Oilseed, Soybean 12,360 13,644 15,200 15,900 17,000

2,492 Oilseed, Sunflowerseed 2,698 2,990 3,120 3,250 3,250

11,757 Other 8,600 8,800 10,800 10,875 10,875

56,754 Total 53,478 54,923 59,486 59,875 61,725

none

Domestic Consumption none

1,474 Meal, Fish 1,439 2,019 1,906 1,750 1,860

10,764 Meal, Rapeseed 10,572 10,777 11,453 11,225 11,006

57,467 Meal, Soybean 62,663 68,646 70,105 67,242 67,262

8,683 Other 7,832 8,252 9,495 10,395 10,599

78,388 Total 82,506 89,694 92,959 90,612 90,727

none

SME none

2,137 Meal, Fish 2,087 2,928 2,754 2,529 2,688

7,338 Meal, Rapeseed 7,197 7,339 7,816 7,650 7,494

56,487 Meal, Soybean 61,663 67,596 69,005 66,092 66,062

7,560 Other 6,983 7,260 8,244 8,807 8,978

73,523 Total 77,930 85,123 87,819 85,078 85,222

none

Imports none

1,031 Meal, Fish 1,042 1,583 1,466 1,325 1,435

142 Meal, Rapeseed 359 875 1,258 1,325 1,225

58 Meal, Soybean 24 61 23 30 50

553 Other 403 657 842 1,720 1,805

1,784 Total 1,828 3,176 3,589 4,400 4,515

none

Food Use Dom. Cons. none

3,750 Oil, Palm 2,700 2,650 2,900 4,015 4,270

2,757 Oil, Peanut 2,855 2,807 2,966 2,908 3,012

7,800 Oil, Rapeseed 8,500 8,600 8,600 8,326 8,159

14,200 Oil, Soybean 15,350 16,350 16,500 16,249 16,391

998 Oil, Sunflowerseed 1,379 1,332 1,428 1,515 1,728

1,563 Other 1,272 1,296 1,569 1,583 1,600

31,068 Total 32,056 33,035 33,963 34,596 35,160

none

Domestic Consumption none

5,700 Oil, Palm 4,800 4,750 5,100 6,315 6,670

2,757 Oil, Peanut 2,855 2,807 2,966 2,908 3,012

7,800 Oil, Rapeseed 8,500 8,600 8,600 8,326 8,159

14,200 Oil, Soybean 15,350 16,350 16,500 16,249 16,391

998 Oil, Sunflowerseed 1,379 1,332 1,428 1,515 1,728

2,141 Other 1,832 1,891 2,270 2,333 2,375

33,596 Total 34,716 35,730 36,864 37,646 38,335

none

Imports none

5,696 Oil, Palm 4,689 4,881 5,320 6,150 6,700

141 Oil, Peanut 113 111 112 125 150

732 Oil, Rapeseed 768 802 1,067 1,350 1,400

773 Oil, Soybean 586 711 481 900 1,100

534 Oil, Sunflowerseed 878 725 785 800 1,000

751 Other 737 773 883 948 990

8,627 Total 7,771 8,003 8,648 10,273 11,340

SME - 44 Percent Protein Soybean Meal Equivalent

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 34 May 2019Office of Global Analysis

Page 35: Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean …...Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African

Table 28: India Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution

Thousand Metric Tons

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

May

2019/20

none

Production none

12,525 Oilseed, Cottonseed 10,996 11,463 12,312 10,826 12,100

4,855 Oilseed, Peanut 4,470 6,924 6,650 4,700 5,750

5,080 Oilseed, Rapeseed 5,920 6,620 7,100 8,000 7,700

8,711 Oilseed, Soybean 6,929 10,992 8,350 11,500 10,900

383 Oilseed, Sunflowerseed 323 318 230 280 188

730 Other 735 735 770 770 770

32,284 Total 29,373 37,052 35,412 36,076 37,408

none

Domestic Consumption none

4,250 Meal, Cottonseed 3,959 3,725 4,278 3,959 4,258

1,252 Meal, Peanut 1,108 1,587 1,621 1,318 1,439

1,600 Meal, Rapeseed 2,600 2,750 2,875 3,150 3,150

4,500 Meal, Soybean 4,460 4,750 4,800 5,600 5,750

184 Meal, Sunflowerseed 315 439 218 304 281

375 Other 431 452 546 485 515

12,161 Total 12,873 13,703 14,338 14,816 15,393

none

SME none

3,444 Meal, Cottonseed 3,208 3,018 3,466 3,208 3,450

1,402 Meal, Peanut 1,240 1,778 1,816 1,476 1,617

1,138 Meal, Rapeseed 1,850 1,957 2,046 2,241 2,241

4,350 Meal, Soybean 4,300 4,500 4,550 5,350 5,500

123 Meal, Sunflowerseed 210 293 145 203 187

164 Other 188 196 239 211 224

10,620 Total 10,996 11,742 12,263 12,689 13,220

none

Food Use Dom. Cons. none

1,255 Oil, Cottonseed 1,230 1,120 1,300 1,180 1,276

8,750 Oil, Palm 8,600 8,900 8,600 10,000 10,300

970 Oil, Peanut 860 1,150 1,300 998 1,122

1,900 Oil, Rapeseed 2,200 2,350 2,750 2,700 2,775

4,100 Oil, Soybean 5,250 5,150 4,720 5,000 5,200

1,700 Oil, Sunflowerseed 1,665 2,000 2,400 2,600 2,500

380 Other 265 240 295 280 287

19,055 Total 20,070 20,910 21,365 22,758 23,460

none

Domestic Consumption none

1,300 Oil, Cottonseed 1,275 1,165 1,345 1,225 1,321

9,150 Oil, Palm 9,100 9,450 9,180 10,600 10,925

980 Oil, Peanut 870 1,160 1,310 1,008 1,132

1,980 Oil, Rapeseed 2,280 2,435 2,830 2,780 2,855

4,100 Oil, Soybean 5,250 5,150 4,720 5,000 5,200

1,700 Oil, Sunflowerseed 1,665 2,000 2,400 2,600 2,500

672 Other 547 506 595 579 594

19,882 Total 20,987 21,866 22,380 23,792 24,527

none

Imports none

0 Oil, Cottonseed 0 0 3 3 0

9,139 Oil, Palm 8,860 9,341 8,608 10,500 10,750

0 Oil, Peanut 0 0 0 0 0

383 Oil, Rapeseed 383 317 278 250 275

2,815 Oil, Soybean 4,269 3,534 2,984 3,400 3,500

1,575 Oil, Sunflowerseed 1,492 2,136 2,496 2,400 2,450

224 Other 106 82 117 115 120

14,136 Total 15,110 15,410 14,486 16,668 17,095

SME - 44 Percent Protein Soybean Meal Equivalent

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 35 May 2019Office of Global Analysis

Page 36: Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean …...Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African

Year Rapeseed CopraBeg U.S. U.S. Brz Arg Rott U.S. Rott U.S. Rott Hamb RottOct 1 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 10/ 11/

Oct - Sep Average07/08-16/17 414 424 453 451 485 518 1517 491 514 506 814

2007/08 414 452 472 469 550 458 1,688 532 745 644 8672008/09 368 365 403 392 421 517 1,204 461 364 393 4872009/10 354 357 390 395 429 467 1,209 342 452 419 6132010/11 454 482 508 511 549 508 1,792 591 661 647 11882011/12 488 505 549 533 562 729 2,480 632 593 616 8292012/13 530 537 538 543 592 635 1,391 546 580 579 5702013/14 482 487 514 517 542 524 1,300 480 466 505 8542014/15 362 356 388 401 407 482 1,294 506 432 417 7492015/16 339 346 382 375 396 419 1,260 433 440 409 9072016/17 347 351 385 376 404 437 1,554 386 408 432 1076

2017/18 Oct 337 343 386 378 399 522 1,275 370 390 430 989 Nov 339 346 386 371 401 511 1,250 366 393 438 1,038 Dec 342 345 384 368 399 531 1,231 375 395 425 958 Jan 342 345 384 365 405 509 1,225 388 398 426 943 Feb 349 358 394 383 418 498 1,200 390 408 429 835 Mar 360 366 414 401 432 538 1,302 381 416 423 745 Apr 361 367 428 424 442 514 1,430 397 423 418 756 May 362 363 406 415 431 500 1,420 395 422 411 692 Jun 351 328 386 382 398 500 1,360 390 420 406 623 Jul 334 301 393 380 378 494 1,375 384 401 422 614 Aug 316 302 393 383 380 485 1,380 373 389 436 616 Sep 322 284 397 380 358 489 1,360 368 378 432 598 Average 343 337 396 386 403 508 1,317 381 403 425 784

2018/19 Oct 315 291 412 393 368 487 1,315 368 375 432 558 Nov 308 301 382 368 373 467 1,250 375 377 427 511 Dec 315 313 351 357 382 392 1,275 362 370 424 535 Jan 317 315 349 347 382 489 1,255 384 381 425 520 Feb 313 315 353 347 380 474 1,300 397 396 422 478 *Mar N/A 311 344 335 373 N/A 1,325 N/A 397 409 451 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Average 314 308 365 358 376 462 1,287 377 383 423 509

7/ Rotterdam CIF; US Runners 40/50%, Shelled Basis, Oilworld. 8/ US Farm Price; USDA9/ Rotterdam/Amsterdam CIF; EU; Oil World 10/Hamburg CIF; Europe "00"; Oil World.

* Preliminary 4/9/2019 7:24:07 AM

3/ Brazil Paranagua, FOB; IGC 4/ Argentina Up River, FOB; IGC5/ Rotterdam CIF; US origin; Oil World. 6/ US Farm Price, Inshell, USDA.

11/ Phil/Indo CIF NW Europe; Oil World

Table 29: Oilseed Prices U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton

Soybean Peanut Sunseed

1/ U.S. Farm Price; USDA. 2/ U.S. NO.1 Yellow Cash Central Illinois; AMS.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 36 May 2019Office of Global Analysis

Page 37: Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean …...Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African

Year FishBeg U.S. Brz Arg Hamb U.S. Ukr BremOct 1 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 6/ 7/ 8/

Oct - Sep Average07/08-16/17 406 384 380 430 213 253 1495

2007/08 370 337 299 469 191 298 11462008/09 365 333 290 401 168 178 11032009/10 343 327 311 391 167 222 16682010/11 381 383 386 418 242 254 16072011/12 434 442 442 461 272 263 14482012/13 516 489 506 538 266 318 1,7912013/14 540 500 509 533 263 315 1,6602014/15 406 376 386 403 231 269 1,6322015/16 358 335 349 351 169 233 1,5172016/17 349 322 326 336 160 178 1,377

2017/18 Oct 347 326 320 337 169 169 1,378 Nov 346 322 323 333 182 163 1,388 Dec 352 333 340 348 204 172 1,480 Jan 356 343 352 361 196 176 1,572 Feb 400 384 400 400 205 206 1,605 Mar 419 397 415 427 207 239 1,604 Apr 425 419 458 447 212 259 1,578 May 434 416 433 443 222 269 1,510 Jun 392 390 385 391 194 270 1,494 Jul 376 376 376 382 171 265 1,495 Aug 367 358 351 363 169 261 1,477 Sep 351 348 342 347 166 235 1,491 Average 380 368 375 382 191 224 1,506

2018/19 Oct 352 349 340 347 181 235 1,483 Nov 342 335 332 340 189 240 1,478 Dec 344 325 326 344 207 213 1,479 Jan 347 361 334 343 210 211 1,484 Feb 338 325 326 330 207 214 1,471 *Mar 338 319 320 320 209 204 1,470 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Average 344 336 330 337 201 220 1,478

1/ Decatur, Average Wholsale 48% Protein; USDA. 2/ Brazil Paranagua, FOB; 48% Protein; IGC.3/ Argentina Pellets, Up River, FOB; IGC; 4/ Hamburg FOB 44/45% Ex-Mill; Oil World.5/ Memphis FOB; 41% Protein Solvent Extraction; USDA; 6/ Minneapolis FOB; 32% Protein; USDA.7/ HiPro a.o. cif France or Ukraine DAF; Argentina Pellet 37-38% (Prior to Aug 2012); Oilworld.8/ Bremen 64-65% Protein; Oil World. 9/ Hamburg FOB; Ex-Mill 34% Protein; Oil World.* Preliminary 4/9/2019 7:24:07 AM

272276274273

265 268

266249

353323

269273259249

252256

366416335

230

268281277259

293305282264

204

285334356290

288

252

269232

208

225

216241267

285287

274265

289284279287

281244302303

U.S.5/

305

280

Table 30: Protein Meal Prices U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton

Soybean SunseedCottonseed RapeseedHamb

9/

269

298195221278295

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 37 May 2019Office of Global Analysis

Page 38: Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean …...Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA May 2019 Producers Face New Reality in the Global Soybean Market African

Year Cottonseed Palm Canola Coconut CornBegin U.S. Brz Arg Rott U.S. U.S. Rott U.S. Rott Malay Rott Rott U.S.Oct 1 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 10/ 11/ 12/ 13/

Oct - Sep Average07/08-16/17 892 921 919 1,007 1,104 1,470 1,071 1,659 1,649 822 1,036 1,222 1,010

2007/08 1,147 1,190 1,191 1,327 1,622 2,010 1,639 2,225 2,018 1,058 1,410 1,306 1,5292008/09 709 740 741 826 820 1,108 837 1,539 1,339 633 868 735 7222009/10 793 848 829 924 888 1,164 956 1,353 1,291 793 927 921 8662010/11 1,173 1,210 1,211 1,306 1,202 1,899 1,404 1,806 1,751 1,154 1,367 1,772 1,3312011/12 1,144 1,162 1,164 1,241 1,173 1,834 1,254 2,247 2,455 1,032 1,258 1,244 1,2362012/13 1,039 1,012 1,014 1,098 1,071 1,452 1,189 1,934 1,963 791 1,127 858 1,0292013/14 843 871 870 950 1,337 1,304 929 1,430 1,355 803 954 1,278 8692014/15 697 706 705 778 1,009 1,471 850 1,265 1,354 626 782 1,128 8272015/16 658 704 698 774 1,011 1,275 849 1,294 1,443 628 798 1,362 8652016/17 718 765 763 848 902 1,181 807 1,496 1,524 699 871 1,621 825

2017/18 Oct 713 770 775 867 817 1,235 788 1,443 1,410 681 889 1,485 771 Nov 737 781 786 881 816 1,224 795 1,433 1,368 670 930 1,549 760 Dec 711 753 758 866 755 1,208 787 1,437 1,356 619 879 1,456 749 Jan 697 759 766 864 722 1,224 784 1,458 1,335 650 848 1,399 676 Feb 675 748 753 842 693 1,213 794 1,469 1,325 654 829 1,252 655 Mar 668 747 749 834 691 1,190 790 1,477 1,325 658 798 1,124 654 Apr 655 730 735 827 688 1,190 802 1,474 1,330 651 794 1,135 650 May 648 710 719 793 689 1,190 782 1,466 1,316 639 812 1,029 654 Jun 624 685 680 786 659 1,190 759 1,493 1,308 605 817 938 651 Jul 600 666 660 775 634 1,190 774 1,499 1,289 570 836 917 634 Aug 608 657 641 766 631 1,190 739 1,499 1,281 559 853 917 591 Sep 611 653 642 757 637 1,190 713 1,491 1,264 552 843 903 583 Average 662 722 722 822 703 1,203 776 1,470 1,326 626 844 1,175 669

2018/19 Oct 637 676 658 760 674 1,190 712 1,469 1,225 539 875 841 599 Nov 606 645 633 734 693 1,164 678 1,429 1,191 492 858 767 581 Dec 620 633 617 726 707 1,179 676 1,372 1,180 489 831 806 583 Jan 627 652 651 746 748 1,179 689 1,364 1,174 538 834 782 578 Feb 652 683 693 770 803 1,168 706 1,348 1,161 556 823 713 565 *Mar 631 641 653 734 787 1,173 700 1,345 1,179 523 800 681 589 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Average 629 655 651 745 735 1,176 694 1,388 1,185 523 837 765 5831/ Decatur; Average Wholesale Tank Crude; USDA. 2/ Brazil Paranagua, FOB Crude; IGC.3/ Argentina Up River, FOB Crude; IGC 4/ Dutch FOB; Ex-Mill; Oil World. 5/ PBSY Greenwood MS; USDA. 6/ Minneapolis FOB; USDA. 7/ EU FOB NW Euro; Oil World. 8/ South East Mills FOB; Tank Cars Crude; USDA. 9/ Rotterdam CIF; Any Origin; Oil World. 10/ Malaysia FOB; RBD; Oil World. 11/ Rotterdam, Dutch FOBEx-Mill; Oilworld. 12/ Rotterdam CIF; Phil/Indo; Oil World. 13/ Chicago; Crude; AMS * Preliminary

Table 31: Vegetable Oil Prices U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton

4/9/2019 7:24:07 AM

Soybean Sunseed Peanut

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 38 May 2019Office of Global Analysis