product management through the ups and downs of a cyclical industry
DESCRIPTION
Product Management Through the Ups and Downs of a Cyclical Industry by Ray Martin at SVPMA Monthly Event December 2005TRANSCRIPT
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SVPMA Dec 7, 2005
Product Management through the Ups and Downs of a Cyclical Industry
Ray MartinSr. Director, Product MarketingAsyst Technologies, Inc
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In 1593, tulips were first brought from Turkey to Holland.
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The market flourished.
But, in 1637, the tulip market
suffered a correction
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Many traded their entire estate for a
single tulip.
They found out the tulip was only worth
the price of an onion.
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Agenda
• Introduction• Product Management
Communication Enhancement• Analyzing Cyclicality• Guidelines for Product Managers
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Asyst Technologies Inc.Introduction
Founded 1984Revenues of ~$600M850 employeesProvides automation solutions optimized for
the needs of our global customers in the semiconductor, flat panel display, and related industries.
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The Asyst SolutionThe Asyst SolutionFor a modern Wafer Fabrication Facility
ConnectivitySoftware
Automated Transport and Loading System
Substrate-Handling Robotics
Isolation Systems RFID-based
AssetManagement
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Major End User Customers
Silterra
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Major OEM Customers
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Product Management Communication Enhancement
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Analyzing Cyclicality
Some cycles are predictable.
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Some cycles are simple
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Combinations of cycles are
more complex:
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There are technology cyclesMoore’s Law
Source: Ron Leckie, Infrastructure
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There is a Technology Adoption Cycle
Pragmatists create the dynamics of high-tech market development
Innovators EarlyAdopters
Early Majority Late Majority Laggards
Techies:Try it!
Pragmatists:Stick with the herd!
Conservatives:Hold on!
Skeptics:No way!
Visionaries:Get ahead of the herd!
Source: Geoffrey Moore, Crossing the Chasm
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Chasm
EarlyMarket
Innovation strategy changes at each stageBowling Alley
Tornado
Main Street
Source: Geoffrey Moore, Crossing the Chasm
The Chasm
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There are Business CyclesSemiconductor Cycles 1973 - 2005
Source: Infrastructure Advisors Copyright 2005
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There are major trendsPopulation: 1750 - 2150
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects, The 1998 Revision;
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Rare photo of a Rogue Wave
On an oil freighter off the coast of Durban, South Africa
This wave is about 35 feet high
And there are Rogue Waves
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Guidelines for Product Managers1. Understand the cycles affecting your industry 2. Understand the major trends affecting your industry 3. Choose the Best Products and Take Pets to the Pound4. Create Alignment in the organization5. Spend the time to forecast well6. Diversify into counter-cyclical industries7. Unseat an incumbent 8. Manage mergers & acquisitions effectively 9. Design simple processes that survive turmoil 10. Be proactive with headcount management11. Outsource intelligently to respond to ups & downs
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1. Understand the cycles and your customers’ needs
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Semiconductor Industry Cycles
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SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 23
Observations of Semiconductor Industry Cycles
• The Chip Industry cycles overshoot Electronic End Equipment Cycles
• Chip Industry cyclicality drives greater cyclicality in Semiconductor Equipment
• The Semiconductor Equipment Industry gets whipped by the Changes in the Chip Industry
• “Rogue Waves” randomly occur– 1973 Gas Crisis– 1982 Gas Crisis– First Gulf War (1991)– Asian Financial Crisis of 1997– Y2K– Internet Bubble– September 11, 2001
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Semiconductor Cycles 1973 - 2005
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Global Semiconductor RevenueJan-01 to Jul-05
Billions of USD
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SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 26
Wafer Fab Equipment Orders
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SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 27
Economy vs. Performance Model
The Economy’s Performance
Your
Com
pany
’s P
erfo
rman
ce
Low Hi
Low
Hi
Gold Medal
Silver Medal
Bronze Medal
Source: Paraphrased from Andy Grove, Intel
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SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 28
2. Understand the major trends affecting your industry
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SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 29
Major Trends affecting Telecom"This may be the most exciting period in the
history of the telecommunications industry." -Paul Johnson, Analyst
• Convergence • The fiber optic revolution • From analog to digital • Bundling of services • The importance of data • The broadband opportunity • Domestic regulatory changes• International regulatory changes
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The Five Competitive Forces Model
Source: Michael E. Porter's 1980 book “Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitors
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3. Choose the Best Products & Take Pets to the Pound
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4. Create alignment in your organization
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5. Spend the time to forecast well.
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Useful forecasting tools
TasseographyThe Art of
Reading Tea Leaves
• Signs point to yes. • Yes. • Reply hazy, try again. • Without a doubt. • My sources say no. • As I see it, yes. • You may rely on it. • Concentrate and ask again. • Outlook not so good. • It is decidedly so. • Better not tell you now. .
There are two types of Forecasts
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Spend time to forecast:Find & Watch Leading Indicators
Equipment and IC Book to Bill
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
RESTRICTED DATA: for access and use only within your company, as per your company's agreement with VLSI Research Inc. Copyright © 2005 by VLSI RESEARCH INC. All rights reserved.
Equipment B:BIC B:B
Reprinted with permission of VLSI Research
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SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 36
IC Unit Shipment Trend
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6.Diversify into counter-cyclical industries
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Performance of a highly cyclical and a non-cyclical company
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7. Unseat an incumbent
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Look for windows of opportunityto unseat an incumbent
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8. Manage mergers & acquisitions effectively
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9. Design simple processes that survive turmoil
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The Copy Exactly! ProcessHelps Fabs Climb the Yield Curve Faster
Source: Intel website
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10. Be proactive with headcount management
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11. Outsource intelligently to respond quickly to ups and downs
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Outsource Intelligently:
• Freeze the product prior to transfer and create complete documentation– Don’t rely on tribal knowledge
• Documentation for ESL – English as Second Language
• Configure the product appropriately – Customer Requirements evolve– Configure for Cost Reduction– Regulatory Requirements
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Summary & Conclusion1. Understand the cycles affecting your industry 2. Understand the major trends affecting your industry 3. Choose the Best Products and Take Pets to the Pound4. Create Alignment in the organization5. Spend the time to forecast well6. Diversify into counter-cyclical industries7. Unseat an incumbent 8. Manage mergers & acquisitions effectively 9. Design simple processes that survive turmoil 10.Be proactive with headcount management11.Outsource intelligently to respond to ups & downs
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Thank you