product policy / new product development - … · · 2017-05-10new product development. ......
TRANSCRIPT
Risky Business
95% of new businesses fail in the first 5 years
Failure rates for new consumer packaged goods:
1961 45.6%1971 53.4%1981 64.5%1991 80.0%
Why Introduce New Products?Large Firms
• If you do not attack your own brands someone else will (Barco)
• Approximately 30% of corporate profits come from new products (5 years old or less)
• Innovation by large firms tends to be more incremental despite:– additional resources – greater risk of cannibalization– lower risk aversion
Why Introduce New Products?Start-Ups
Not aware of the risks
• Never hear about the failures
• Over-estimate own abilities
Positive expected return despite the risks
• Large upside
• Can manage downside (jumping into a cold pool)
Test Before You Leap
Success Cost / TotalStage Ideas Ratio Idea Cost
Idea Screening 64 1:4 $1,000 $64,000Concept Test 16 1:2 $20,000 $320,000Product Development 8 1:2 $200,000 $1,600,000Test Marketing 4 1:2 $500,000 $2,000,000National Launch 2 1:2 $5,000,000 $10,000,000
Stages in the Process
1. Idea generation
2. Screening
3. Concept testing
4. Product development
5. Market testing
6. Launch
Business plan
Idea Generation: Examples
Channel suggestions: aspirin prevents heart attacks
Foreign markets : Muesli breakfast cereal
Consumers: Lite beer
Basic research: nylon
Competitors: diet colas
Employees: baking soda is a deodorizer
Existing products: personal computers
Idea ScreeningConservatively screen impractical, infeasible or unmarketable ideas
Set Criteria: product can be introduced within 5 yearsmarket potential of at least $50 millionmarket has at least a 15% growth rateproduct will yield at least 30% return on salesproduct will yield at least 40% return on investmentproduct will achieve technical or market leadership
Allow trade-offs between criteria
Separate tasks of sponsoring and evaluating the idea:start ups need a mentorbanks are not a good screen (SBA distortion)
Concept Testing
Product Concept:• target market • needs
Powder to add to milk to increase its nutritional value and taste
• An instant breakfast drink for adults who want a quick nutritious breakfast with little preparation
• A tasty snack drink for children as a midday refreshment
• A health supplement for older adults to drink before retiring
Concept Testing
A powdered product that is added to milk to make an instant breakfast providing all of the required nutrition in a convenient, tasty drink. The product would be offered in chocolate, vanilla and strawberry flavors and would be packaged individually and sold in packs of 6 for 79 cents.
1. Does this product satisfy a need for you?2. Do other products currently satisfy this need?3. Is the price reasonable in relation to value?4. Would you purchase this product?5. How frequently would you use this product?
Concept Testing
Begin informally (CD exchange service)
If advertising is important, advertise before the product is available
Do not ignore the results: “just using the wrong copy”
Business Plan: Financial Predictions
Estimate costs: additive
Estimate demand: multiplicativedo sensitivity analysis
Estimating demand is even harder when:– customers have multiple needs – customers’ needs vary (segments)– needs are measured on non-monetary scales– the product is very new/different– the benefits are hard to evaluate (need to predict credibility)
Product Development
Extensive topic of ongoing research
Examples:1. Involve suppliers:
– increase surplus (coordination)– share surplus (horizontal competition)
2. Resolve language problems:– House of Quality
Market Testing
Generally optimistic because attention is focussed
Consumer Products:– Simulated Test– Controlled Test– Test Market
Industrial products– Alpha Test– Beta Test– Test Market
Under-test: perceived risk of competitive entry
Launch
Few firms use a national or global launch
Phased roll-out is an extension of market testing
Which markets?
Example
Large industrial equipment manufacturer: EngTech
Idea Generation: Bain & Co. Idea Screening: Phase 1 research
Concept Testing: Phase 2 research Product Development: go/no go
Phase 1 Research
Screen out training services that customers do not need
Process: telephone interviews with 20 customers– do you need?– what do you currently do?– how much do you spend?– is EngTech appropriate?
Willingness to Pay
NEEDSegment
1Segment
2Segment
3Segment
4Segment
5
Operator Training
Technician Training
Engineer Training
Management Training
Number of Customers
PROFIT POTENTIAL Segment1
Segment2
Segment3
Segment4
Segment5
Operator Training
Technician Training
Engineer Training
Management Training
Factors: Willingness to PayNumber of CustomersCost of Delivery
Overall Attractiveness of Training Options
Operator Training
Technician Training
Engineer Training
Management Training
Phase 2 Research
Objectives: – identify whether to proceed with Product Development– identify customer response to different product features
Process:– e-mail interview with 20 customers– asked to choose between different product alternatives– varied delivery format, price and length of consulting services– focussed on concepts that survived the Phase 1 research