Production of alternative marine fuels in Brazil: an IAM perspectiveEduardo Müller-Casseres1, Francielle Carvalho1, Tainan Nogueira1, Clarissa Fonte1, MarianaImpério1, Matheus Poggio1, Huang Ken Wei1, Joana Portugal-Pereira1,2, Pedro R. R. Rochedo1,Alexandre Szklo1, Roberto Schaeffer1

1. Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (CENERGIA), Energy Planning Programme (PPE/COPPE), Universidade Federal Do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

2. Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, United Kingdom

IMO Alternative Fuel Symposium – 10 February 2021

Speaker: Prof. Roberto Schaeffer, Ph.D.

Context for this presentation

• This presentation, based on a paper recently published with the same name, has been

prepared in the context of a broader research project entitled “Prospects for the

Production of Carbon-Neutral Maritime Fuels in Brazil”

• The work was split into 3 different phases:

o Phase 1: Comparative Analysis of Alternative Marine Fuels

o Phase 2: Georeferenced analysis, Lifecycle Assessment (LCA)

o Phase 3: Economic analysis, IAM-based analysis

• Phase 1 will be submitted by Brazil for discussion in the IMO Intersessional Working

Group on the Reduction of GHG Emissions (ISGW 8)

• This presentation focuses on Phase 3 (specifically IAM-based analysis)

Global IAMs (OECD and non-OECD)

Our research laboratory at COPPE,Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro

Our IAMs

COFFEEBLUES TEA

Brazilian National IAMPartial equilibrium

Energy, land use, materials5 Brazilian regions

Global IAMPartial equilibrium

Energy, land use, materials18 world regions

Global IAMComputable General Equilibrium (CGE)

Economic model18 world regions

In this study

Our IAMs

BLUES

Brazilian National IAMPartial equilibrium

Energy, land use, materials5 Brazilian regions

In this study

Energy

System

Agricultura e

uso da terra

Technology progress

Population

Economic projections

Energy use

GHG emissions

Water demand

Model structure:

Materials

Agriculture

and land use

Petrochemicals

Agricultural products

Linear programmingAlmost 30.000 technological knots

Using the BLUES model in this study

Conventional and alternative marine fuels

First-generation distilled biofuels

Fossil bunker Fossil LNG

Biobased synthetic liquids

Biobased alcohols and

liquefied gases

Hydrogen-based fuels

Fossil fuels (imply direct fossil GHG emissions)

Fossil methanol

Renewable fuels

Fuels that do not imply direct fossil GHG emissions but whose production can be based either on fossil or renewable energy

Fuels with at least 0.10 EJ used in the shipping sector in 2018

Green

GreyBlue

Marine fuel production routes – BLUES modelFOSSIL BIO-BASED

HYDROGEN-BASED

Σp: routes in which bunker is a coproduct

Scenario analysis

Group 1

Group 2

Scenario analysis: resultsLow demand High demand

Gro

up

1G

rou

p 2

Fossil bunker

LNG

SVO

HVO

Synthetic bunker

Ammonia

Methanol

Scenario analysis: spill over effects

Ineffective mitigation

For the cases of high demand

In Brazil B2C scenario, there is a significant reduction in national emissions that can not be associated with IMO’s target

Thank you.Prof. Roberto Schaeffer – roberto@ppe.ufrj.br