production planning & control & forecasting
TRANSCRIPT
PRODUCTION PLANNING AND
CONTROL
CONTENTS ARE…………
Introduction for planning & control.
o Production planning
o Objectives of production planning
o Production control
o Objectives of production control
o Production planning and control
o Characteristics of production planning and control
o Characteristics of production planning and control
o Need/importance of production planning and control
o Limitations of production planning and control
Techniques or Elements of Production Planning and Control
PRODUCTION PLANNING
Meaning:-
Production planning involves management decisions on the resources that the firm will require for its manufacturing operations and the selection of these resources to produce the desired goods at the appropriate time and at the least possible cost.
Definition:-
"The planning of industrial operations involves four considerations, namely, what work shall be done, how the work shall be done and lastly, when the work shall be done -kimball and kimball
OBJECTIVES OF PRODUCTION
PLANNING
1.To determine the requirements of men, material and equipment.
2.Arranging production schedules according to the needs of
marketing demand.
3.Arranging various inputs at a right time and in right quantity.
4.Making most economical use of various inputs.
5.To achieve coordination among various departments relating
to production.
6.To make all arrangements to remove possible obstacles in the
way of smooth production.
7.To achieve economy in production cost and time.
8.To operate plant at planned level of efficiency.
9.Making efforts to achieve production targets in time.
10.Providing for adequate stocks for meeting contingencies.
PRODUCTION CONTROL
Meaning:-
Production control guides and directs flow of
production so that products are manufactured in a best
way and conform to a planned schedule and are of the
right quality.Control facilitates the task of
manufacturing and see that every theme goes as per
the plan.
Definition:-
"Production control refers to ensuring that all which
occurs is in accordance with the rules established and
instructions issued.“
-HENRY FAYOL
OBJECTIVES OF PRODUCTION
CONTROL
1.To implement production plans by issuing orders
to those who are supposed to implement them.
2.To ensure that various inputs like men, machine,
materials etc. are available in the required quantity
and quality.
3.Making efforts to adhere to the production schedules.
4.To ensure that goods are produced according to the
prescribed standards and quality norms.
5.To undertake the best and most economic production
policies.
6.To introduce a proper system of quality control.
7.To ensure rapid turnover of production and minimizing
of inventories of raw materials and finished products.
PRODUCTION PLANNING AND CONTROLMeaning:-
Production planning and control is concerned with directing production along the lines set by the planning department.
Definition:-
"Production planning and control is the co-ordination of series of functions according to a plan which will economically utilize the plant facilities and regulate the orderly movement of goods through the entire manufacturing cycle from the procurement of all materials to the shipping of finished goods at a predetermined rate."
-CHARLES A. KOEPKE
CHARACTERISTICS OF PRODUCTION PLANNING AND CONTROL
1. It is the planning and control of manufacturing process
in an enterprise.
2.Questions like-what is to be manufactured? when it is tobemanufactured? etc.
3.All types of inputs like materials, men, machines are
efficiently used for maintaining efficiency of manufacturing
process.
4.Various factors of production are integrated to use them
efficiently and economically.
5.The manufacturing process is organized in such a way
that none of the work centers is either overworked or
under worked.
6.The work is regulated from the first stage of procuring
raw materials to the stage of finished goods.
Need/Importance of Production Planning and Control
For Increasing Production
For Co-coordinating Plant Activity
For Cost Control
For Rationalisation of Production Activities
Consumers
Limitations of production planning and control
1. Based on Assumptions: - Production planning and control is based on certain assumptions. In case the assumptions prove correct then the planning and control will go smoothly, otherwise it may not. The assumptions generally are about plant capacity, orders, availability of raw materials and power etc. if these assumptions go wrong then the process of planning and control will go weak.
2.Rigidity: - Under production planning and control the things are pre-decided and fixed. There is rigidity in the behavior of employees and it may not help in smoothening the flow of work.
3.Difficult for Small Firms: - This process is time consuming and small firms may not be able to make use of production planning and control.
4.Costly: - It is a costly device as its implementation requires separate persons to perform the functions of planning, dispatching, expediting etc. Small firms cannot use the services of specialists due to cost factor.
5. Dependence on External Factors: - The external factors
sometimes reduce the effectiveness of production planning
and control. The factors like natural calamities, change in
technology, change in fashion, breakdown of power,
government controls etc. limit the use of production
planning and control.
Techniques or Elements of Production Planning and
Control
The following are the techniques of production planning
and control:A. Planning B.Routing
C. Scheduling D. Dispatching
E. Follow-up and Expediting F. Inspection
Techniques or Elements of Production
Planning and Control
Planning
It is the first element of production planning and control. Planning is given an important role in every business. A separate department is set up for this work. Planning is deciding in advance what is to done in future. Control devices are also decided in advance so that all activities are carried on properly. An organizational set up is created to prepare plans and policies. Various charts, manuals and production budgets are also prepared. If production planning is defective then control will also be defective. Planning provides a sound base for control.
Routing
It is determining the exact path or routing which will be followed in production. The stages from which goods are to pass are decided after a proper thought. Routing may be compared to a train journey for reaching a particular place. If a passenger is to reach Delhi from Ambala Cantt then he has the option of going via Panipat and via Saharanpur. Both the routes will take him to Delhi. The question is –which route will be economical in time and money? The passenger will decide the route only after taking into consideration various factors affecting his journey. Similar is the case with production routing. It is the selection of the path from where each unit has to pass before reaching the final stage. The path must have the best and cheapest sequence of operations.
Routing Procedure:-
Deciding what part to be made or purchased
Determining Materials Required
Determining Manufacturing Operations and Sequences
Determining of Lot Sizes
Determining of Scrap Factors
Analysis of Cost of the Product
Preparation of Production Control Forms
SCHEDULING
Scheduling is the determining of time and date when each operation is to be commenced and completed. it includes the scheduling of materials, machines and all other requisites of production.
Types of schedules
Master scheduling
Operation scheduling
Detail operation scheduling
DESPATCHING
The term dispatching refers to the process of actually ordering the work to be
done. It involves putting the plan into effect by issuing orders. it is concerned
with starting the process and operation on the basis of route sheets and
schedule charts.
"Dispatches put production in effect by releasing and guiding manufacturing
order in the sequence previously determined by route sheets and schedule.”
PROCEDURE:
1.Moving of materials from process to process.
2.Assigning of work to machines.
3.Issuing of tools to production departments.
4.Issuing of job orders.
5.Recording of time taken.
6.Ensuring necessary changes.
7.Having proper liaison with routing
IMPORTANT DOCUMENTS
1.Material requisitions
2.work order
3.control sheet
4.Internal delivery note
5.Tool and gauge ticket
FOLLOW UP AND EXPDITING
Follow up or expediting is that branch of production control procedure which regulates the progress of materials and part through the production process".
PROCEDURE:
1.Progress should be checked
2.Causes of differences should be ascertained
3.Helping in removing the deviations
4.Report with departments supplying materials.
INSPECTION
Inspection is also an important function of control.
the purpose of inspection is to see whether the
products manufactured are of requisite quality or
not. It is carried on at various levels of production
process so that pre-determined standards of quality
are achieved. Inspection is undertaken both of
products and inputs.
CONTENTS ARE…………
o Introduction for Forecasting
o The strategic role of forecasting
o Components of forecasting demand
o Time series methods
Forecasting
FORECASTING
Forecasting is essential for number of planning
decisions and often provides a valuable input on which
operations of the business enterprises depend.
Forecasting is a process of estimating a future event
by casting forward past data. The past data are
systematically combined in a predetermined way to
obtain the estimate of the future.
Prediction is a process of estimating a future event
based on subjective considerations other than just
past data; these subjective considerations need not be
combined in a predetermined way.
THE STRATEGIC ROLE OF
FORECASTING
Supply chain Management:
Quality Management:
Strategic planning:
COMPONENTS OF FORECASTING
DEMAND Time frame
Short range forecasts
Long range forecasts
Demand Behaviour
Forecasting Methods
Quantitative Methods
Time series
Regression
Qualitative Methods
Delphi method
Forecasting process:
TIME SERIES METHODS
Moving average
Simple moving average
Weighted moving average
Exponential smoothing Method
Liner regression method
Simple Moving Average
Month Orders
June 50
July 75
August 130
September 110
October 90
The moving average is computed from the demand for
orders for the prior three months in the sequence according
to the above formula:
=
= 110 orders for November
Month Orders per Month Three-Month MovingAverage
January 120 -
February 90 -
March 100 -
April 75 103.3
May 110 88.3
June 50 95
July 75 78.3
August 130 78.3
September 110 85
October 90 105
November - 110
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
January February March April May June July August September October November
Orders per Month
Three-Month Moving Average
Weighted Moving Average
The Heartland Produce Company in Example wants to
compute a three-month weighted moving average with
a weight of 50% for the October data, a weight of 33%
for the September data, and a weight of 17% for the
August data. These weights reflect the company’s desire
to have the most recent data influence the forecast
most strongly.
The weighted moving average is computed as
= (0.50)(90) + (0.33)(110) + (0.17)(130)
= 103.4 orders
Exponential Smoothing
Method
The company has accumulated the demand data shown in the
accompanying table for repair and service calls for the past 12
months, from which it wants to consider exponential smoothing
forecasts using smoothing constants (α) equal to 0.30.
Month Demand
January 37
February 40
March 41
April 37
May 45
June 50
July 43
August 47
September 56
October 52
November 55
December 54
The forecast for February is
= (0.30)(37) + (0.70)(37)
= 37 service calls
The forecast for period 3 is computed similarly:
= (0.30)(40) + (0.70)(37)
= 37.9 service calls
Month Demand Forecast(Ft+1)
January 37 -
February 40 37
March 41 37.9
April 37 38.83
May 45 38.28
June 50 40.29
July 43 43.2
August 47 43.14
September 56 44.3
October 52 47.81
November 55 49.06
December 54 50.84
January - 51.79
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Demand
Forecast(Ft+1)
Liner regression method
x (period) y (demand) xy x2
1 37 37 1
2 40 80 4
3 41 123 9
4 37 148 16
5 45 225 25
6 50 300 36
7 43 301 49
8 47 376 64
9 56 504 81
10 52 520 100
11 55 605 121
12 54 648 144
78 557 3867 650
y = 35.2 + 1.72x
To calculate a forecast for period 13, let x = 13 in the
linear regression line:
y = 35.2 + 1.72(13)
= 57.56 service cells
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
y (demand)
Linear (y (demand))
ISSUES ON PRODUCTION PLANNING AND CONTROL
Non-availability of materials (due to shortage, etc.)
facing one problem while creating process order when we do batch determination system is showing material is not available in quantity this but when we check stock through MMBE it shows there is sufficient stock in unrestricted use , also there is no safety stock , also there is no open reservation for such quantity but at the time of process order system is showing missing part message
Plant, equipment and machine breakdown
Equipment Breakdown
Machinery Breakdown, boiler and pressure vessels, spoilage of food and specific computer cover are not automatically included under LCA Property Insurance. Coverage for these incidences is available at an additional cost as requested.
Machinery Breakdown
Breakdown is defined as the actual breaking, seizing or burning out or explosion of any part of the machine whilst the machine is in use arising from either mechanical or electrical defects in the machine causing sudden stoppage, necessitating repair or replacement before further use.
Optimum utilization of resources
The closest reference to the expression "optimal utilization of resources" is
"value-for-money". According to this universally-recognized concept, all
business processes are characterized by the use of a group of inputs
(resources), which are transformed (activities) into outputs (results). The
optimization of resources is based on three characteristics: economy,
effectiveness and efficiency. The economy of resources consists of acquiring
resources of the required quality, at a reasonable cost and in a timely
manner. The effectiveness of resources is aimed at ensuring the adequacy of
resources relative to business needs and their appropriate use. The efficiency
of resources is measured by the attainment of an organization’s business
objectives.
Working capital capacity
Working capital is the money needed to fund the normal, day-to-day
operations of your business.
It ensures you have enough cash to pay your debts and expenses as they fall
due, particularly during your start-up period. Very few new businesses are
profitable as soon as they open their doors. It takes time to reach your
breakeven point and start making a profit.
Ensure the quality of products
In the manufacturing business, organization wants to make sure that their
produce a high level of quality in everything that they make! There are
many different ways to ensure the quality of products, which range from the
physical composition components of the product to the actual product
performance itself. Don't get overwhelmed when organization start to think
about ensuring quality control - there are a couple of different ways that
organization can ensure the quality of products.
How to strike the balance between demand and supply of products
Changes in demand and rush orders
Absenteeism of workers
Employee absenteeism is one of the most common workplace problems facingemployers in today’s workplace. Legitimate illnesses still account for themajority of employee absences, but some studies have shown that less than one-third of absences from the workplace are related to poor health. Mostemployers offer their workers vacation, sick leave, paid time off, or other kindsof paid and unpaid leave
Lack of coordination and communication between various functional
Coordination is a managerial function in which different activities of thebusiness are properly adjusted and interlinked.
Managers should strengthen communication across all facets of the organizationto increase the level of integration between each moving part.
If there is a lack of coordination and communication between various functionalareas of business, there is a risk that responsibility will become dispersed andtasks will be left unclaimed. Organizing accountability for every task helps toensure that efforts are tangibly coordinated and communication betweenvarious functional areas of business.
References
Operations Management by Russell & Taylor 7th edition: Pages
495- 517
Production and operation management by Dr.K.C.Arora: Pages
393-407
Production & operations management , SNCHARY 2nd edition
Operations Management by R. Dan Reid &R. Nada. Sanders
Operations Management for competitive advantage by Chase –
Jacobs - Aquilano 10th edition
http://www.tandfonline.com/toc/tppc20/current#.VTR8ktKqqko
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Production_planning
http://www.worldcat.org/title/elements-of-production-planning-
and-control/oclc/744532
http://www.acsu.buffalo.edu/~nagi/courses/505/ch1.pdf
Thank you..