47

53

1981

29

51

2005

18

78

1981

34

17

2005

East Asia

Total no of people (m) <$1.25/day

212 388 1071 316

Source: World Bank “PovCalNet” database, 2009

>$2.5/day 

$1.25‐$2.5/day

<$1.25/day

Sub‐Saharan Africa

Productivity and poverty reduction

Prices of major food crops volatile

Source: World Bank, 2011

CropActual Yield

(t/ha)Potential Yield

(t/ha)Maize 1.5 7Millet 1.8 5Beans 0.5 3Sweet potato 4.5 30Cassava 12.7 50Bananas 4.6 35Source: FAOSTAT and NARO, 2006/07

Actual and potential yield of selected crops

10% increase in productivity reduces poverty by 4% in the SR and 19 % in the LR

Consequences of low agricultural productivity

• Extreme hunger & poverty 265 million undernourished

• 4-12% of GDP is lost from environmental degradation

• 43 million tons of food costing about $7.5 billion is imported annually to feed the hungry

• High potential for Internal conflicts & political instability

Sources: Chen & Ravallion (2007); FAO (2009; 2010) 

Note: 16 of the world’s 18 hungry countries are in AfricaNote: 16 of the world’s 18 hungry countries are in Africa

• Low use of improved technologies– Seed– Fertilizers

• Historical trends of neglect– Lingering effects of structural adjustment programs– Decline in global support for agriculture– Lack of political will to support agriculture

• Climate change– Droughts– Floods

Causes of low agricultural productivity

Limited use of improved crop cultivars (maize)

Av. 28%

Sources: Langyintuo et al. (2010); Abdoulaye et al. (2009)

Kenya Tanzania Ethopia  Uganda1WS 909 KDV3 Staha St rare‐1 DK 80512WS 202 DK8073 Situka  M1 melkassa ‐1 DK 80313WHSQM 109 DK8053 Situka  1 melkassa‐2 DK 80714WHSQM 105 DK8031 Lishe k1 Melkassa 3 H 6255WH 699 KA500‐31A Lishe H2 melkassa‐4 KATUMANI

6WH 505 KA600‐16A Lishe H1 melkassa‐5 SC 4077WH 504 H 515 gibe‐1 LONGE 2H8WH 502 H 513 gambela comp LONGE 3H9WH 404 DK 8073 horra LONGE 4

10WH 403 DK 8051 AMH 800 LONGE 511SC Tembo 73 DK 8031 BH‐670 LONGE 6H12SC Simba 61 DH04 BH‐543 LONGE 7H13SC Pundamilia 53 DH01 BH‐542 LONGE 8H14SC Pundamilia 51 H 628 BH‐541 Longe 115SC DUMA 43 DK 8053 ZM521 H 51316SC DUMA 41 TUXPENO ZM421 H 62317QPM 2 TMV1 SAM H 62418QPM 1 H 628 Matuba H 62519PHB3253 H 625 CM‐1 H 62620PHB30V53 DK 8071 MA‐1 H 62721PHB30G97 SC 713 SAM‐4 H 61422PHB30G19 SC 627 NOMAA‐123PAN 77 SC 621 NOMAA‐224PAN 5243 SC 513 NOMAA‐325PAN 33 SC 407 NOMAA‐426PAN 15 SC 403 ZM62127Masemo Double Cobber PHB 3252 ZM42328LH3 PHB 30G97 ZM52329LH2 Longe 6H ZM62330LH1 Longe 42 dente cavalo31Lagrotech early Longe 2H32KH600‐21A Lishe33KH600‐15A Kito34KDV6 KATUMANI35KDV4 KALIMA

Constraints to seed supply• Lengthy variety release procedures • Limited access to foundation seed • Lack of access to investment capital

Constraints to seed demand• High relative cost of seed• Lack of competitive markets for grains• Lack of awareness• Lack of access to credit

Low use of fertilizers

Average: 8 kg/ha

Total yearly consumption 1.3 

Million tons (3% of world total)

Total yearly consumption 1.3 

Million tons (3% of world total)

8 kg/ha in SSA Africa96 kg/ha in Southeast Asia 101 kg/ha and South Asia>145 kg/ha in developed 

world 

8 kg/ha in SSA Africa96 kg/ha in Southeast Asia 101 kg/ha and South Asia>145 kg/ha in developed 

world 

Sources: World Bank (2006)

Percent change in intensity of fertilizer use in selected countries between 1995 and 2002

85% of the 4‐12% of GDP lost from environmental degradation is from soil erosion, nutrient loss and 

changes in crops

85% of the 4‐12% of GDP lost from environmental degradation is from soil erosion, nutrient loss and 

changes in crops

Reasons for low demand for fertilizers

• Limited awareness of financial incentives • High relative price of fertilizer • Removal of subsidies

– Taxes – Lack of competition among distributors– High transport and handling costs– Poor dealer network – Cost of finance

• Risk of fertilizer use

Legacy of the structural adjustment

Main tenants of the SAP•Dissolution or privatization of input supply agencies and grain marketing boards•Abolition of input subsidies

Consequence of the SAP on agriculture•Poorly developed input and output markets •Expensive agricultural inputs •High tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade•Fertilizers declined by 25-40% in many

Decline in global support to agriculture in Africa

Government expenditure on agriculture

Limited political will

National policies should promote uptake of modern inputs to increase agricultural productivity/production

The Malawi subsidy experienceNet rate of assistance to agric. in Africa

Past unsuccessful experience with GR in Africa

• SG2000 program that provided free seeds and fertilizers to farmers

• Hybrid maize green revolution in ESA

• The Millennium Village Project aimed at raising agricultural productivity through input distribution

• SG2000 program that provided free seeds and fertilizers to farmers

• Hybrid maize green revolution in ESA

• The Millennium Village Project aimed at raising agricultural productivity through input distribution

Lessons from earlier GR in Africa• Technical interventions need to be complemented by

policies that promote enabling environment for a GR

• GR models should combine technologies, policies markets and institutions to create incentives and supportive environments for ensure sustainability

• Farmers need to be provided with comprehensive farm support, information on climate variability, global price movements, etc.

<0.5 t/ha >5 t/haTechnology space

Access to market

A sustainable green revolution model

Policy

R&DSeed delivery

• Seed Enterprise Management Institute in collaboration with the SC-Iowa, CIMMYT & UoN

• Investment fund as a Loan Facility (ASIF & WAAIF)

AGRA’s interventions in African agriculture

•Training of soil scientists•Developing fertilizer supply chain

•Funding extension work and empowering agro-dealers

•Creating a fertilizer business investment fund (AFAP)

AGRA’s (cont.)

•Policy Program•Advocating for conducive seeds, fertilizers, markets, land, environment policies at national and regional levels

•Leveraging commercial credit for farmers and investors along the agricultural value chain

•Crop index insurance•Capacity building for policy analysts•Capacity building for parliamentary committees

•Markets Access Program•Reducing transaction costs•Supporting staple crop value addition programs

•Developing alternative use of crops

AGRA’s (cont.)

Financial constraints

AGRA & partners intervention

Agricultural credit access

Leveraged $160 mil with $15 mil from commercial banks

•AGRA & IFAD - $50 mil from EBK

•AGRA & MCC - $25 mil from SB for GH

•AGRA & MDC- $25 mil from SB for MZ

•AGRA & KT - $25 mil from SB for TZ

•AGRA & KT - $25 mil from SB for UG

AGRA’s (cont.)

Percent change in agricultural production due to climate change (Cline 2007)

Climate change

Reported droughts, floods and extreme temperatures over the years

Impacts of drought on productivity and live • Drought causes - 0.4% p.a. decrease

in crop productivity• In 1985 – 1988, 28M people in India

are believed to have been affected by drought

• The mid-1980s, late 2000s and 2010/11, droughts created 10s of millions of refugees in Africa

• In 2004, 262M people were affected by climate disasters, more than 98% of them in developing countries

• 60% mortality of livestock in eastern Africa alone

Need for national drought policy …

“A national drought policy will not only institutionalize the need for effective monitoring and setting up of early warning systems, it will

empower a poor farmer affected by a drought to demand safety nets to protect him,” (Sivakumar)

“A national drought policy will not only institutionalize the need for effective monitoring and setting up of early warning systems, it will

empower a poor farmer affected by a drought to demand safety nets to protect him,” (Sivakumar)