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proESTOP – Runway Occupancy Time Estimator_WAC 2015. Carlos Barbas. 11/03/15

ProESTOP Runway Occupancy Time Estimator

1. INFLUENCE OF RUNWAY OCCUPANCY TIME ON RUNWAY CAPACITY 2. EXISTING METHODS & TOOLS 3. proESTOP ALGORITHM 4. APPLICATIONS 5. CONTACT US


1. INFLUENCE OF RUNWAY OCCUPANCY TIME ON RUNWAY CAPACITY

proESTOP - Runway Occupancy Time Estimator


1. INFLUENCE OF ROT ON AIRPORT CAPACITY


4

Separation between operations (ICAO DOC444 §7.8.2 and §7.9.1)

& Local regulations

Runway operations affect overall Airport Capacity

Exit taxiway usage Taxi flows

Minimum Separations

Runway Occupancy Times (ROTs)

Taxi time & Number and Location of potential conflicts

X

DELAY

CAPACITY

GO-AROUNDS

CONFLICTS


• To help ANSPs and airport managers / planners identify capacity limits

• To identify improvements to maximize performance while maintaining safety levels

RUNWAY CAPACITY ASSESSMENT PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT OF AIRPORTS


5 proESTOP – Runway Occupancy Time Estimator_WAC 2015. Carlos Barbas. 11/03/15

1. INFLUENCE OF ROT ON AIRPORT CAPACITY

Actual need to estimate occupancy times

2. EXISTING METHODS & TOOLS



2. EXISTING METHODS & TOOLS


7

proESTOP / Ineco

None of the tools and/or methodologies then in use entirely satisfied planning needs.

Complexity/Effort

Accuracy

ANALYTICAL MODELS

ACTUAL DATA SURVEY

SIMULATION MODELS

PROESTOP: a cost-effective mathematical tool

Highest effort (Time & Resources) Minimum sample size to ensure statistical significance

Not always applicable to what-if scenarios

Intermediate models Lower reliability than survey Input information not always available

Simple models. Ready application Deviations not considered Assumptions not realistic


3. proESTOP ALGORITHM




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The tool faithfully reproduces the runway operation in a given scenario.

A great number of factors must be taken into account in when assessing runway operation:

Type and weight of aircraft Approach speed Flight techniques

Elevation of aerodrome Wind

Temperature Runway condition (dry or wet)

Other factors (stand position, aerodrome knowledge, etc...)

Touchdown Runway THR

REVERSE SPOILERS

PLANEO GLIDE VUELO STRAIGHT FLIGHT

BREAK TRANSITION

NOMINAL BRAKING BRAKE ADJUSTMENT

VACATING TRANSITION

TURN

FLIGHT STAGE BRAKING STAGE VACATING STAGE

1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8

IDLE REVERSE MANUAL BRAKE ROLL

80KIAS 80KIAS V V STEER STEER <70Kts <70Kts V V EXIT EXIT V V TAXI TAXI V V THR THR V V TD TD

VACATING STARTING POINT

60KIAS 60KIAS 20’ 20’’

PALANCA

LDA


3 – proESTOP ALGORITHM



10

amax?

Iteration Next Available Exit

Exit Assignment XEXIT; Φ

ROT calculations (Numerical Integration)

∫ ∫==Xexit

EXITTHREXIT KVVV

dXVdxT

0

1

0),,(

ξ

ξξξξ

ξξ

ddV

XV

dtd

ddV

dtdVa

C

)()()(⋅=⋅==

Exit usage probability by ACFT group

)X(C

)X(C

ii

ii

e1eY

Σ

Σ

+=

amax >Max Deceleration (RWY conditions)

End

Speed Profile Assignment

VTHR; VEXIT(Φ); K(Φ)

ACFT MODEL METEO

Stochastic simulations based on realistic operational parameters distributions

Margin of error on average values: 3-5%

Simulation time: 2 min

Simulations based on Monte Carlo method:

Realistic operational parameters based on Ineco’s experience as airport engineering firm and Air Navigation Service Provider

The model generates pseudo-random numbers by simulation techniques to mimic the statistical distribution of the input variables.

Then, it obtains the correspondent output variables by computing the algorithm.

After a sufficient number of replications, the sampling results will reproduce the distribution of the statistic outputs.



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PROESTOP: a cost-effective mathematical tool

RUNWAY PERFORMANCE

Customisable statistics on ROT ESTIMATIONS

Intermediate Occupancy Times

OPTIMISATION

Chronological Optimisation Plan (Time Horizons)

EXIT TAXIWAYS USAGE

Proposals for the LOCATION OF EXIT TAXIWAYS



4. APPLICATIONS



4 – SAMPLE CASE. proESTOP ESTIMATION


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Estimation of ROT is required. Given no actual data available.

proESTOP estimates properly fits actual distributions

Conflicts were reduced from 28 to 1


4 – APPLICATIONS


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Supporting tool to runway performance evaluation and planning processes

Different kind of studies based on runway occupancy times estimations:

International airports: Madrid – Barajas, Barcelona, Palma de Mallorca, Malaga, Puerto Vallarta, Kuwait, Luton, Fujairah, …

Airports planning and development

More than 50 studies comprising the evaluation of nearly 350 different proposals

Different airport complexity:

Runway capacity assessment

Small – medium airports: Ibiza, Lanzarote, Valencia, …

Impact of works in movement area

Evaluation of alternatives in Master Plans

Evaluation of expansion projects: location of new exit taxiways

Green Field studies: Murcia, …

Make the most of Ineco’s experience as airport engineering firm and Air Navigation Service Provider


5. CONTACT US



5 – CONTACT US


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+34 91 452 12 95

[email protected] http://www.ineco.com

INECO Avda. Partenón 4 – 4 28042 Madrid (Spain)

C. BARBAS, J. VÁZQUEZ, P. LÓPEZ (2007), “Development of an algorithm to model the landing operations, based on statistical analysis of actual data survey (PROESTOP)”, 7th ATM R&D Seminar, Barcelona 2007 http://atmseminar.eurocontrol.fr/past-seminars/7th-seminar-barcelona-spain-july-2007/papers/paper_027/view

Further information

WAC stand 845


http://www.ineco.com/

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