prof. alex `sandy’ pentland mit human dynamics lab

Prof. Alex `Sandy’ Pentland

MIT

Human Dynamics Labhttp://hd.media.mit.edu

Copyright 2009, 2010 Alex Pentland

Complexity is simplelook at the generating process, not the leaves

Big Data, Small Problemsuse big data to discover parameters and boundaries

Stone Soup & Big Datapooling data with users to benefit everyone

Copyright alex pentland 2011, all rights reserved

Corporate Information Flow

Complex!


Nature 1/09

Big Data Says that Humans are Really Pretty Simple

Nature, 1/09`People have been studying this for a long time, but

Alex is raising it up to another level.’

Two MindsNobel Prize winners Kahneman and Simon:

Humans have two minds


FastParallelAutomaticAssociative

SlowSerialControlledRule-based

Habitual (System 1)

Attentive (system 2)

Conceptual RepresentationsPast, Present, FutureCan be evoked by languageC

onte

nt

Pro

cess

The Sociometric Badge captures interactions with others

Proximity Location Face-to-face interactions Social signals NOT words

Technology Review Top 10 Emerging

Technologies

Sociometric Solutions

Organizations for Humans


Science, 9/2010

204 groups, size 2 – 5 participants

Three Factors: 1. Total Number of contributions 2. Equality of contribution rate 3. Amount of (backchannel) signaling

Group Performance Governed by

Ancient Patterns

Copyright alex pentland 2011

BAC Call Center

Average Call Handle TimeCohe

sion

of F

ace-

to-F

ace

Net

wor

k

Productivity fromto simple patterns

Waber, Olguin, Pentland

$15M / year savings…..Just by changingcoffee breaks

Creativity: discovery and

integration Creative groups change between star-shaped network

(exploration) and cohesive network (integration)

…like bees

89% accurate identification of `top creative days’ by socialization and activity measurements (sociometric badge)

Copyright 2011 Alex Pentland Tripathi, Burleson, Gloor, Pentland

Copyright alex pentland 2011 Olguin, Waber, Kim, Gloor, Pentland

Simple Patterns Account for40% to 60% of Performance

Harvard Business Review: Breakthrough Idea of the Year

Out In The Wild

Complex!


Big Data Says that Humans Are Really Pretty Simple

Copyright Alex Pentland, 2011

Decisions made by Exposure not friends, information, or arguments

Accounts for 75% – 85% of variance

Me (Individual 1)

Democrat, but 0.50 to switch to Republican

100% DemocraticIndividual 2

100% RepublicanIndividual 3

Social Influence: Like Immune System

Pan, Altshuler, Pentland

14

Using sensors in smart phones to obtain different type of social networks.

Call Network

Proximity Network

Friendship Network

Co-location Network


FunF Open Source Sensing http://funf.media.mit.edu

Aharony, Pan, Pentland

Many networks influence conscious decisions

Pan, Aharony, PentlandCopyright alex pentland, 2011

Predicting What You Will Buy

Big Data and Tribes


The Next Google …cover Newsweek


Patterns of BuyingThe Next Google … cover Newsweek

iPhoneblackberry


Patterns of HealthThe Next Google … cover Newsweek

HIV

diabetes

Me (Individual 1)

Democrat, but 0.50 to switch to Republican

100% DemocraticIndividual 2

100% RepublicanIndividual 3

Shaping Behavior: Social Influence

Gompertz function, like immune system Pan, Altshuler, Pentland


Mani, Rahwan, Pentland

Twice as efficient as standard incentive mechanisms

Leveraging Social Influence

PredictedProportionOf PopulationChangingBehavior

Quantitative Shapingvalidated on stock purchases, app downloads

Treatment Cost

Altshuler, Pan, Pentland

Personal Data & Privacy

“Personal data is the new oil of the internet and the new currency of the digital world.”

—Meglena KunevaEuropean Consumer Commissioner

Stone Soup & Big Data

The Evolution of A New Consensus

Copyright 2011 Alex Pentland

FTC, Commerce, White House, EU,…Microsoft, Google, Cisco, Qualcomm…Verizon, ATT, FT, BT, Bharti……Mastercharge, Equifax, …ACLU, OpenID,Infocard,….Harvard Law, MIT Media Lab, …

My Data

Personal Data Stores

Bank DataFinancialData

Bank DataBank Data

Bank Data

Mobility andCall Data

Legal Data

MedicalData

Trust

Trust

Trust

Securely make offersSecurely make offersto individualsto individuals

PersonalDataStore

PersonalDataStore

PersonalDataStore

PersonalDataStore

PersonalDataStore

PersonalDataStore

OIX, NSTIC, EUUK: mydataVets: blue buttonCopyright alex pentland 2011

Privacy Market

USE CASE 1

USE CASE 1 CONTINUED

`Optimal’ Anonymous Market Discovery:AKA Instant Groupon

USE CASE 2

40th Anniversary of the Internet Grand Challenge

Pickard, Pan, Rahwan,Cebrian,Madan,Crane,Pentland

The Bottom Line

Big Data and Simple Behavior Models

can make the complex simple

We are moving to a data-driven world,

make sure you secure the data you need!



Forbes, 8/10, Mining Human Behavior

http://media.mit.edu/~pentland

http://idcubed.org

[email protected]

prof. alex `sandy’ pentland mit human dynamics lab

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