90 TAHUN PROF. EMIL SALIMPEMBANGUNAN BERKELANJUTANAN:

MENUJU INDONESIA TINGGAL LANDAS 2045

Faisal Basri18 Juni 2020

3.8

4.1

3.4

3.7

5.1

3.8 3.7

3.9

4.4

4.9

6.66.4 6.4 6.3

6.6

5.7

5.5

6.3

6.0

4.6

6.2 6.26.0

5.6

5.0

4.95.0 5.1 5.2

5.0

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

20132014

20152016

20172018

2019

ICOR dan Pertumbuhan, 2005-2019

ICOR GDP growth

2.6

4.6 4.54.0 4.1

6.5

2.1

5.8

4.6

5.6 5.8

5.0

1961-1966 1967-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009 2010-2014 2015-2019

ICOR dan pertumbuhan menurut era

ICOR GDP growth

Investasi besar tetapi hasilnya kecilICOR meningkat tajam sejak 2012, mencapai puncaknya dalam 5 tahun terakhir

Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

ICOR= '()((t−1)△'+,

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators.

Growth of gross capital formation

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Percent

Brazil China Indonesia India Malaysia Vietnam South Africa

32.3

26.8

29.6

10

15

20

25

30

35

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP)

Indonesia Lower middle income Upper middle income

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators.

Share of investment in GDP in Indonesia is higher than the lower and upper middle income countries

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators.

The share of investment in GDP in Indonesia is higher than all ASEAN countries and India

15.4%

44.1%

34.6%

31.3%

23.6%

26.5%

17.9%

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

5019

7019

7119

7219

7319

7419

7519

7619

7719

7819

7919

8019

8119

8219

8319

8419

8519

8619

8719

8819

8919

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

1520

1620

1720

18

Gross capital formation (% of GDP)

Brazil China Indonesia India Malaysia Vietnam South Africa

Most problematic factors for doing business in indonesia

13.8

11.1

9.2

8.8

8.6

6.5

6.4

5.8

5.2

4.7

4.3

4.0

4.0

3.3

2.5

1.8

Corruption

Inefficient government bureaucracy

Access to financing

Inadequate supply of infrastructure

Policy instability

Government instability/coups

Tax rates

Poor work ethic in national labor force

Tax regulations

Inflation

Inadequate educated workforce

Crime andtheft

Restrictive labor regulations

Foreign currency regulations

Insufficient capacity to innovate

Poor public health

Executive Opinion Survey 2017 by World Economic Forum

Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

Composition of gross fixed capital formation, percent

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Construction 74.28 73.10 72.84 73.48 74.73 75.19 75.17 75.13 74.48 75.04

Machinery & equipment 10.36 11.44 11.67 11.23 10.39 9.97 9.02 9.29 10.40 10.60

Vehicles 5.78 5.97 6.36 5.66 4.76 4.60 5.16 5.35 5.42 4.95

Other equipments 1.45 1.44 1.37 1.38 1.44 1.55 1.72 1.77 1.80 1.67

Cultivated biological resources 5.91 5.94 5.65 5.82 5.87 5.97 6.11 5.81 5.48 5.41

Intellectual property products 2.23 2.11 2.11 2.44 2.80 2.71 2.82 2.64 2.42 2.32

GFCF 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Low quality of investment

Accumulated investment in machinery and equipment in Indonesia is relatively low

20

40

49.5

5862 64

Indonesia South Africa Mexico Malaysia Thailand Philippines

2007-2016, % of GDP

Source: Kementerian PPN/Bappenas

Sektor keuangan sangat dangkal

Credit penetration in Indonesia is still very low

*2017Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators.

218.3

210.3

176.9

145.2

141.9

136.6

123.8

113.7

85.7

72.1

79.1

69.1

64.1

62.558.3

53.9

43.5

42.8

ChinaEast Asia & Pacific

Korea, Rep.MalaysiaVietnam

SingaporeThailand

BrazilCambodia

India*South Africa

PhilippinesBangladesh

Lower middle income*Pakistan

Russian FederationMyanmarIndonesia

Domestic credit provided by financial sector (% of GDP), 2018

Indonesia: credit to GDP ratio has not reached pre-crises level

62.1

33.3

42.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Domestic credit provided by financial sector (% of GDP), 2018

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators.

Size & composition of local currency bond markets

199.4

51.6 54.4 56.3 54.5 50.9 41.256.0

27.6 18.1 18.9

15.4

78.950.1

33.8 30.5 32.437.8

22.4

8.12.8 1.7

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

Japan Korea, Rep. Malaysia Singapore China EmergingEast Asia

Hong Kong Thailand Philippines Indonesia Vietnam

Percent of GDP

Government Corporate

Source: Asian Development Bank, Asia Bond Monitor, March 2020, pp. 26.

The tax ratio dropped to the lowest level in half a century

% o

f G

DP

* Estimate. ** Projection.

Sources: Tax revenue from Ministry of Finance (APBN Kita, January edition); GDP from BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

0.1

9

0.2

1

0.2

4 0.2

8 0.3

5 0.4

1

0.4

9

0.6

6

0.6

2

0.8

7

0.9

8

1.0

8 1.1

5

1.2

4 1.2

8 1.3

4

1.5

2

1.5

5

1.4

0

11.3

12.0

12.5

12.3

13.3

11.1

10.5

11.211.4

11.3

10.910.7

10.4

9.9

10.2

9.8

8.9

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

0.1

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019* 2020**

Rp

qu

ad

rilli

on

Penerimaan perpajakan (Rp triliun) Nisbah pajak (% PDB) -RHS

Utang pemerintah pusat & BUMN nonkeuangan

1.71.8 2.0 2.4

2.6

3.1

3.5

4.0

4.5

4.8

5.4

24.5

23.1 23.0

24.9 24.6

27.0

28.0

29.430.1 30.2

34.1

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

2

3

4

5

6

7

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2,019 2020*

Kuad

riliu

n rp

Central government debt

Total gross debt Debt to GDP ratio

175222

286

437

504 525582

632

923

1,020

2.52.8

3.3

4.64.8

4.6 4.7 4.7

6.26.4

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

2010 2011 2012 2013 2,014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2,019

Trili

un r

p

Non-financial public corporation debt

Total gross debt Debt to GDP ratio

Source: Bank Indonesia.

Industri manufaktur: pertumbuhan dan share

22.2

-11.4

2.23.8

29.1

22.019.7

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Manufacturing growth (%) Manufacturing (% of GDP)

Ekspor manufaktur (% ekspor barang)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

China Korea, Rep. Vietnam Philippines

Turkey Thailand Singapore India

Malaysia Lower middle income Indonesia

Manufacrutes exports (% of merchandise exports)

93.4 92.687.8

84.4 83.8 80.9 80.1 77.5 75.169.8 69.5

50.8 47.944.7 43.2

36.1

22.3 20.6

China

Cambodia

Korea, Rep.

Vietnam

Philippines

Turkey

Mexico

Thailand

Singapore

India

Malaysia

Lower m

iddle inco

me

South Africa

Indonesia

Myanmar

Brazil

Lao PDR

Russian Fe

deratio

n

2018

Export diversification index

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.519

6219

6319

6419

6519

6619

6719

6819

6919

7019

7119

7219

7319

7419

7519

7619

7719

7819

7919

8019

8119

8219

8319

8419

8519

8619

8719

8819

8919

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

10

Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam Emerging market and developing economies

Sumber: IMF..

Keragaman ekspor dan impor barang

Source: Bank Indonesia (November 24, 2015) based on UN COMTRADE data.

High-technology exports (% of manufactured exports)

12.0

10.610.7

9.59.2

8.9

7.9

8.2

8.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Indonesia, 2010-2018

52.8

41.4

36.3

31.1

30.9

23.3

22.9

13.0

9.0

8.0

5.3

Malaysia

Vietnam*

Korea, Rep.

East Asia & Pacific*

China*

Thailand

Upper middle income*

Brazil

India

Indonesia

South Africa

2018

*2017Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators database

Medium and high-tech exports (% manufactured exports)

75.5

63.8

63.4

60.0

51.3

46.7

41.3

33.8

28.1

Korea, Rep.

Thailand

Malaysia

China

Vietnam

South Africa

Brazil

India

Indonesia

2017

34.4

28.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

Indonesia, 1990-2017

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators database

Ekspor sejumlah komoditas primer2018 2019

Batu bara 20,631.3 18,866.3Minyak kelapa sawit 17,898.8 15,556.3Gas 10,377.3 8,848.8Logam dasar mulia 3,512.3 4,616.7Kayu dan arang kayu 4,004.3 4,435.1Karet remah 3,836.7 3,426.0Ikan dan binatang air tak bertulang punggung lainnya 3,311.9 3,274.9Lignit 3,336.8 2,767.2Minyak mentah 3,151.9 1,717.4Kakao 1,245.5 1,304.8Biji tembaga 4,186.7 1,280.1Timah 1,550.9 1,557.0Nikel 790.5 1,258.8Kopi 806.9 872.4Tanaman obat, aromatik, dan rempah-rempah 601.2 591.6Buah-buahan tahunan 297.8 323.5Sarang burung 290.6 364.0Rumput laut dan ganggang lainnya 199.9 216.0Lada putih 95.3 87.7Lada hitam 41.7 43.1Jumlah 80,168.3 71,407.7Total ekspor 180,012.7 167,497.0

Kondisi perubahan PKP2B menjadi IUPKYang akan habis masa kontraknya

Nama Perusahaan Luas (Hektare) Akhir Kontrak Lokasi

1. PT Arutmin Indonesia 57.107 1 November 2020 Kalimantan Selatan

2. PT Kaltim Prima Coal 84.938 13 September 2021 Kalimantan Timur

3. PT Multi Harapan Utama 39.972 1 April 2022 Kalimantan Timur

4. PT. Adaro Indonesia 31.380 1 Oktober 2022 Kalimantan Selatan

5. PT Kideco Jaya Agung 47.500 13 Maret 2023 Kalimantan Timur

6. PT Berau Coal 108.009 26 April 2025 Kalimantan Timur

1. Keenam PKP2B menguasai hampir 70 persen produksi nasional.

2. Keenam PKP2B yang dominan itu adalah ujung tombak pelobi kepentingan industri pertambangan batu bara.

3. Lobby ESDM untuk menetapkan harga DMO, FOB sebesar US$70/MT pun dilakukan sebatas oleh keenamPKP2B itu (di masa Menteri ESDM Jonan). Bukan hal yang mudah di tengah keuntungan besar ketika indeksharga fob batu bara di pasar internasional sedang tinggi sekitar US$110/MT.

4. ESDM dalam lobby perpanjangan PKP2B menjadi lebih terdorong oleh keinginan atau skenario PKP2B.

Produksi batu bara

77 90 103 114 128150 162 179

240 256

325

416452 458

436406 419

461

558

616

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Juta

an to

n

Sumber: BPS.

Ekspor batu bara

201

235

299

353 348

381

356

328311 319

343

375

10.5

13.8

18.5

27.2

24.3 22.8

18.7

14.7

12.9

17.9

20.6

18.9

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

US$

billi

ons

Mill

ion

ton

Volume Value-RHS

Sumber: BPS.

Sawit merambah ke kawasan hutan

BPS Persen Kementan Persen

Sumatera 8,30 56,4 10,14 61,9

Kalimantan 5,71 38,8 5,66 34,5

Sulawesi 0,45 3,1 0,37 2,2

Maluku & Papua 0,23 1,5 0,19 1,2

Jawa 0,04 0,2 0,03 0,2

Total 14,73 100,0 16,38 100,0

0.12

0.17

0.45

1.20

1.40

Kawasan suaka alam

Hutan lindung

Hutan produksi terbatas

Hutan produksi konversi

Hutan produksi

Jutaan hektare

Luas perkebunan kepala sawit menurut pulau (jutaan hektare)

Luas perkebunan kepala sawit di Kawasan hutan

Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik dan Kementerian Pertanian. Sumber: Yayasan Kehati (2019).

Akhirnya … oligarki kian mencengkeram

Sumber: Diadaptasi dari Daron Acemoglu dan James A. Robinson, The Narrow Corridor: States, Societies, and the Fate of Liberty, London: Penguin Press.

Poland +

Corporation

Society: non-elites (similar but more general than civil society)Power of society: norms against political hierarchy and elites and bottom-up mobilization; institutionalization is key.State: state institutions and elites that control them.Power of the state: both the ability of the elites and the institutions they control to dominate society and capabilities and capacity of state institutions.Liberty: the state of being free within society from oppressive restrictions imposed by authority on one's way of life, behavior, or political views.

Terima Kasih

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