prof jane falkingham - population change in the uk

8/7/2019 Prof Jane Falkingham - Population change in the UK

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/prof-jane-falkingham-population-change-in-the-uk 1/56

Population Change in the UK & implications for policy

Prof Jane Falkingham

ESRC Centre for Population Change



Outline of talk � A brief history of population change during the twentieth century

� Population Change over the last decade

± Fertility, mortality, migration

± Changing composition

± Changing family structures

± Implications for policy

� Population change in a global context

� Q & A



A century of population change in the UK � In 1901 the population of the UK was 39.3 million

� By 2001 it had reached 59 million

� In 1901, the total fertility rate was 3.5

� By 2001 it was 1.7

� In 1901 the average life expectancy for a man was 45

� In 2001 it was 75

� Rise in life expectancy across the last century is equivalent to 7 hours a day!

� During the twentieth century more people emigrated from the UK thanimmigrated

± The net exodus from the UK was over 15 million



The drivers of population change� The size, composition and distribution of a population are

determined by fertility, mortality and migration.

Pt2 = Pt1 + B - D + I - E

Where:

Pt2 Population at time t2

Pt1 Population at time t1

B BirthsD Deaths

I In-migration

E Out-migration



UK Births and Deaths 1901 to 2001

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001

Millions

Births

Deaths



UK annual net international migration 1901 - 2001

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001

T

usa

ds

Source: Annual Abstracts of Statistics



Population change in the UK today � Today just over 62 million

� The population of the UK grew by just over 1,ooo people a

day last year

� The rate of population growth is increasing

± 0.6% per year since 2001, compared to 0.3 per cent peryear 1991-2001 and 0.2 per cent per year 1981-1991

� Driven by increasing fertility, improving mortality and netmigration



Total births, England and Wales, 1955-2001

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

750,000

800,000

850,000

900,000

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005



Total births, England and Wales, 1955-2007

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

750,000

800,000

850,000

900,000

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005



Long term international migration, UK, 2000-2009

Source:ONS 2010

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

YE J

¡

00 YE D¢ £

00 YE J

¡

01 YE D¢ £

01 YE J

¡

02 YE D¢ £

02 YE J

¡

03 YE D¢ £

03 YE J

¡

04 YE D¢ £

04 YE J

¡

05 YE D¢ £

05 YE J

¡

06 YE D¢ £

06 YE J

¡

07 YE D¢ £

07 YE J

¡

08 YE D¢ £

08 Y EJ

¡

09p

YE D¢ £

09p

Rolli¡

g y¢ ¤ ¥

Mig

¦

§

tion (thousands)

Net mig¥

ation Immig¥

ation Emig¥

ation

YE = Year Ending

p Year inc ludes provisional estimates f or 2009.



Immigration for jobs is declining

Applications to the Worker Registration Scheme,by rolling year of application, 2005-2010



The majority of migrants come to study UK entry visas issued by reason for entry, 2005-2010



Over 1 million people moved within UK in 2009

Internal migration between UK countries and regions, 2009



Migration from North to South

and out of LondonNet internal migration movements between UK countries and regions, 2006-2009



Changing population



Changing population� An ageing population



3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000

0 - 4

5 - 9

10 - 14

15 - 19

20 - 24

25 - 29

30 - 34

35 - 39

40 - 44

45 - 49

50 - 54

55 - 59

60 - 64

65 - 69

70 - 74

75 - 79

80 - 84

85+

UK population: 2001 and 1951 (coloured)

Males Fe ales

Thousands

1st baby -boo

1st baby -boo

2nd baby -boo

Baby±bust WWII

Source: 1951, 2001 Censuses

Changing age structure:Age pyramids, 1951 and 2001, UK



3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000

0 - 4

5 - 9

10 - 14

15 - 19

20 - 24

25 - 29

30 - 34

35 - 39

40 - 44

45 - 49

50 - 54

55 - 59

60 - 64

65 - 69

70 - 74

75 - 79

80 - 84

85+

UK population: 2001 and 2031 (coloured)

Males Females

Thousands

Susta

ine

dlow

f ertility

Changing age structure:

Age pyramids, 2001 and 2031,UK

Second baby boo



Number of very old (90 plus) by age and gender,England & Wales 2008

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Men Women

100+

95-99

90-94

Today, over 10,000 people are aged 100 or more



Projected population aged 85 and over, UK 2008, 2023 and 2033

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

85-89 90-94 95-99 100 & over

t ousands

2008

2023

2033



Age at which at least 50 percent of abirth cohort is still alive

104104104103103103102102France

104104104103103103102102Canada

104104103103103102102101USA

103103102102101101101100Uni ed Kingdom

102101101101100100100100Nether lands

107106106106105105105104Japan

104104103103103102102102Ital

10210110110110010010099Germany

20072006200520042003200220012000Country

Birth year

104104104103103103102102France

104104104103103103102102Canada

104104103103103102102101USA

103103102102101101101100United Kingdom

102101101101100100100100Nether lands

107106106106105105105104Japan

104104103103103102102102Italy

10210110110110010010099Germany

20072006200520042003200220012000Country

Birth year

Source: Vaupel, 2010




� An increasingly diverse population



Increasingly diverse young populationEthnic composition of population aged 15-19, 2007 England

82%

3%

3%

3%

2%

1%

1%

2%

1%

2%

17%

W te Br t sW te ot er

M xe

Indian

Pakistani

Bangla es i

Black Carr ibean

Black Afr ican

C inese

Ot er

Source ONS (2009) Population by ethnic composition, mid year estimates 2007



Estimated population resident in the United Kingdomamongst five most common countries of birth, 2009

thousands

Unit King om

Country Esti ate CI +/-

1 India 653 34

2 Poland 520 31

3 Pakistan 441 28

4 Republic of Ireland 389 26

5 Ger any 293 23

Source: ONS (2010)



Estimated population resident in the United Kingdomamongst five most common nationalities, 2009

Source: ONS (2010)

thousands

Unit King om

Nationality Esti ate CI +/-

1 Poland529 31

2 Republic of Ireland333 2

43 India303 23

4 Pakistan190 18

5 United States of A erica 139 16





� Changing family structure



Declining marriages

200,000

220,000

240,000

260,000

280,000

300,000

320,000

340,000

360,000

380,000

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Number of marriages, England & Wales 1980-2007



Increasing cohabitation

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

15±19 20±24 25±29

ag

1966±1970

1971±1975

1976±1980

Proportion of individuals cohabiting: by year of birth and age



Increasing births outside marriage

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1845 1855 1865 1875 1885 1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

year

Percentage of all births that occur outside marriage



Increasing age at motherhood

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

year

ge

Age at first birth



Increasing childlessness, but alsosignificant proportions with 3+ births

Cohort 0 1 2 3 4+

1945 10 14 43 21 12

1950 14 13 44 19 10

1955 16 13 41 19 10

1960 20 12 38 20 10

1965 21 13 38 18 101968 19 17 37 17 10

Nu ber of c ildren at a e 40





� Changing family structure

� Changing life course



Changing life course

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1943-47 1948-52 1953-57 1958-62 1963-67 1968-72 1973-77

bir h ohor

Marriage

Bir h o hil

Cohabi ation

Marriage br eakdown

Proportion of individuals experiencing various life eventsby age 25, by birth cohort



Years of Age

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

1930s Late industrial, incipient welfare state

Education Work/family raising E0 Cease work

2000s Postmodern welfare state

Education Work/family raising

RetirementE0

E0 = average life expectancy at birth (both sexes)

= Time spent in Education = Time spent in Retirement

Source: Adapted from A. Warnes (2006)

Changing life course



Summary, in future we will «..� Have a larger population

� Be living longer

� Be more diverse

± Ethnicity

± Family & households



Changes in population present challenges forwelfare state

� Geographical mobility impacts on local services and planning

� Rising birth rate ± midwives, schools, housing

� Increasing numbers of older people ± pensions, health &social care

� Changing family structures ± ? availability of kin to care

� Diverse population requires diverse and culturally appropriate service



Population change beyond Europe



Population change in a global context� Estimated TOTA L number of births from origin of human

species to today ± 83 billion

� 6.9 billion alive in 2010 represent more than 7% of total

humans ever born

� The 430 billion years lived by those alive in 2010 represents1/6 of all the years lived

� Took 130 years for world population to increase from 1billion to 2 billion

� Succeeding billions took 30 years, 15 years, 12 years and 12years.



Ninth

Eighth

Seventh

Sixth

Fifth

Fourth

Third

Second

First Billion

Num

ber of years toadd eachbillion (year)

All of Human History (1800)

130 (1930)

30 (1960)

15 (1975)

12 (1987)

12 (1999)

13 (2012)

13 (2025)

21 (2046)

Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. T ird t rou nint billion: United Nations, W orld

Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision ediu scenario), 2009.

World Population Growth, in Billions



Living in a period of transformation� Massive increase in numbers



A.D.2000

A.D.1000

A.D.1

1000B.C.

2000B.C.

3000B.C.

4000B.C.

000B.C.

6000B.C.

7000B.C.

1+ million year

8

7

6

5

2

1

4

3

OldStoneAge New Stone Age

Bronze

Age

Iron

Age

Middle

Ages

ModernAge

Black Death ² he Plag e

9

10

11

12

A.D.3000

A.D.4000

A.D.000

1800

1900

1950

1975

2000

2100

Futur e

Billions

Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, W orld Population Projections to 2100 (1998).

World Population Growth Through History




� Rapid urbanisation



Ur ban PopulationPercent

orl ri a A ia Latin Am ri a

an the

aribbean

or e

Developed

Region

1 0 2000 2030

Source: United Nations, W orld Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision (medium scenario), 2008.

Trends in Urbanization, by Region



Millions

Source: United Nations, W orld Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision (medium scenario), 2004.

1950 2000 2015

Largest Cities Worldwide 1950-2015

11 12

1 1

34

2123

36

L n n T ky

Yor k

o

lo

xi o

Ci y

Tokyo D lhi i

(Bo y)

Tokyo





� Lower mortality



Lif e E pectancy at Birth, in ear s

frica sia Latin erica

an the

aribbean

r e

eve pe

Regi ns

W r

1950-1955 2000-2005 2045-2050

Source: United Nations, W orld Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision (medium scenario), 2009.

Trends in Life Expectancy, by Region





� Lower mortality

� Lower fertility



Patterns of Fertility DeclineAver age number of childr en per woman

0

2

4

6

8

10

1950±1955 1960±1965 1970±1975 1980±1985 1990±1995 2000±2005

Source: United Nations, W orld Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

Uganda

Kenya

Colombia

South Kor ea



1.17

1.12

0.94

0.84

1.22

1.24

1.24

1.23

1.23

1.20

B

B ga ia

public of Moldo a

public of Ko a

Slo ia

Slo a ia

Cz ch public

U ai

Chi a, Ho g Ko g Sp cial Admi is a i

gio

Chi a, Macao Sp cial Admi is a i gio

10 Places With the Lowest Total Fertility Worldwide

A ag umb of child p w ma , 2000-2005

Source: United Nations, W orld Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.





� Lower mortality

� Lower fertility

� A shrinking world



A changing world� The worlds population is likely to increase by 2.5 billion in next 40

years. This increase is equivalent to the TOTA L number of peoplealive in 1950.

� Half of the increase will be accounted for by a rise in thepopulation aged 60 and over, whereas the number of children(<15) will actually decline slightly.

� Eight countries will account for half of world¶s projected growth

� India,Nigeria, Pakistan, DRC, Ethiopia, USA, Bangladesh, China(listed according to the size of their contribution to global population growth)



Five countries with the oldest population, 2005-2050 (as measured by median age)

2005

± Japan 42.9

± Germany 42.1± Italy 42.0

± Finland 40.9

± Bulgaria 40.8 UK 38.9

2050

± China 55.5± Japan 54.9

± Korea 54.9

± Singapore 53.7

± Martinique 53.0 UK 43.4



ESRC Centre for Population Change

www.cpc.ac.uk

µImprovi ng our underst and i ng of the d rivers

and consequences of popul ation change¶

prof jane falkingham - population change in the uk

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