prof. kees stigter, ph.d. agromet vision netherlands and indonesia roving seminar vi, 2014...
TRANSCRIPT
PROF. KEES STIGTER, PH.D.
AGROMET VISION
NETHERLANDS AND INDONESIA
ROVING SEMINAR VI, 2014
Agroforestry and (Micro)Climate Change
1
Lecture VI
More Recent Progress
and Additions in Agroforestry
2
INTERMEZZO FROM OUTSIDE THE AGROFORESTRY PAPER
PART II
3
HOW A CLIMATE CHANGE PROGRAM IS ENCOURAGING
ADOPTION OF RESEARCH FINDINGS
BY LYNNETTE WOOD
PRESIDENT OF BLUE MADRONA LLC., A SUBCONTRACTOR TO THE
ARCC PROGRAM
4
THE ASSESSMENT WAS DEVELOPED WITH THREE CHARACTERISTICS
WHICH CONTRIBUTED TOADOPTION OF ITS FINDINGS
AMONG PEOPLE AFFECTED BY CLIMATE CHANGE
AND AMONG INSTITUTIONS WITH THE MANDATE TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT:
CREDIBILITY, SALIENCE,AND LEGITIMACY.
5
THESE CHARACTERISTICS ARE DESCRIBED IN THE SCIENCE-POLICY LITERATURE
AS CRITICAL FOR TRANSLATING SCIENCE FINDINGS INTO POLICY AND PLANNING.
IN THE CONTEXT OF THE MALAWI ASSESSMENT, THESE CHARACTERISTICS ARE DEFINED
AS FOLLOWS:
6
CREDIBILITY REFERS TO THE PERCEIVED QUALITY AND ADEQUACY
OF THE EVIDENCE AND FINDINGS PRESENTED IN THE ASSESSMENT.
TO BE FULLY CREDIBLE, THE EVIDENCE AND FINDINGS MUST ALSO BE AUTHORITATIVE, BELIEVABLE, AND TRUSTED.
7
THE MALAWI ASSESSMENT ESTABLISHED CREDIBILITY
BY COMPILING AN EVIDENCE BASE FOR DECISION MAKING, USING
THE BEST AVAILABLE DATA AND INFORMATION, BY APPLYING
RECOGNIZED ANALYSIS PROCEDURES, AND BY CLEARLY COMMUNICATING THE LIMITATIONS OF THE ANALYSIS.
8
A RECOGNIZED CLIMATE RESEARCH ORGANIZATION
[THE CLIMATE SYSTEM ANALYSIS GROUP OF THE UNIVERSITY OF CAPE TOWN]
CONDUCTED THE CLIMATE PORTION OF THE ANALYSIS,
WHICH LENT AUTHORITY TO THE RESULTS,
FURTHER INCREASING THEIR CREDIBILITY.
9
SALIENCE IS DEFINED AS THE PERCEIVED RELEVANCE AND TIMELINESS
OF THE INFORMATION PROVIDED AND INTEGRATION OF
CONTEXTUAL FACTORS.
THE ARCC PROGRAM ACHIEVED SALIENCE BY FULLY EMBEDDING
THE ASSESSMENT RESULTS IN THE LOCAL CONTEXT.
10
DURING THE COURSE OF THE ASSESSMENT, THE TEAM CARRIED OUT
IN-DEPTH, PARTICIPATORY RURAL APPRAISALS IN NINE REPRESENTATIVE VILLAGES
IN EIGHT DISTRICTS.
THESE WERE SUPPLEMENTED BY APPROXIMATELY 50
KEY INFORMANT INTERVIEWS.
11
THESE INTERACTIONS GREATLY ENHANCED THE TEAM'S UNDERSTANDING
OF THE LOCAL CONTEXT, ALLOWING A WIDER AUDIENCE
TO ACCEPT THE ASSESSMENT RESULTSBEYOND JUST USAID.
ONCE THE ASSESSMENT WAS COMPLETED, THE TEAM STRUCTURED ITS FINDINGS IN A WAY THAT DIRECTLY ADDRESSED
THE MOST CRITICAL NEEDS
AND RELEASED THE RESULTS IN A TIMELY MANNER ALIGNED WITH INVESTMENT CYCLES. 12
LEGITIMACY IS THE VALUE WHEREBY ASSESSMENT RESULTS
ARE RECOGNIZED AND ACCEPTEDAS AN ACCURATE REFLECTION OF REALITY.
BUT "REALITY" IS COLORED BY INDIVIDUAL OR GROUP VALUES,
BELIEFS, AND PERSPECTIVES; THEY MAY ALSO BE COLORED
BY THE PERCEPTION OF THE TRANSPARENCY OF THE ASSESSMENT PROCESS.
13
TO ESTABLISH LEGITIMACY, THE TEAM ENGAGED STAKEHOLDERS
AT CRITICAL POINTS THROUGHOUT THE ASSESSMENT
-- DURING ITS DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION, AND WHEN THE TEAM BEGAN ASSESSING
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ADAPTATION OPTIONS.
THE PROCESS WAS INCLUSIVE-- IT PROVIDED A VOICE TO MANY ACTORS --
AND IT WAS TRANSPARENT. 14
THE TEAMALSO SHARED THE FINDINGS
WITH FARMERS AND FARMER ASSOCIATIONS,
WHO VALIDATED THE HISTORICAL CLIMATE TREND ANALYSES
WITH THEIR OWN REAL-WORLD EXPERIENCES OF ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
THAT WERE ALREADY OCCURRING.
15
THE RESULTS OF THE ASSESSMENT INFORMED
A PARTICIPATORY OPTIONS ANALYSIS THAT ENGAGED DECISION MAKERS
AND ENCOURAGED THEM TO EXPLORE APPROACHES
TO STRENGTHEN ADAPTIVE CAPACITYAND COPE WITH RISK
ACROSS COMMUNITIES AND INSTITUTIONS.
16
WHILE MANY PROGRAMS ARE INVOLVED WITH CONDUCTING RESEARCH
AND GENERATING NEW KNOWLEDGE, TRANSLATING THE RESULTS
OF THEIR EFFORTS SO THAT THEY ARE USED
BY DECISION-MAKERS IS OFTEN OVERLOOKED.
17
IN THE CASE OF ARCC'S PROGRAM, GENERATING AND PRESENTING
ASSESSMENT RESULTS DEEMED TO BE CREDIBLE, SALIENT, AND LEGITIMATE
BY DECISION MAKERS WAS ESSENTIAL FOR IMPROVING
THEIR UNDERSTANDING OF THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS
OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENABLING THEM TO ACT EFFECTIVELY
TO ADDRESS THEM.18
MAKING THE ENTIRE PROCESS INCLUSIVE, AND KEEPING LINES OF COMMUNICATION OPEN,
INCREASES THE CHANCES THAT STAKEHOLDERS AND BENEFICIARIES
WILL EMBRACE CHANGE.
19
END OFINTERMEZZO FROM OUTSIDE THE AGROFORESTRY PAPER
PART II
20
C. Coping with increasing climatic variability
using agroforestry
21
Subchapter 5.2 (Coping with Climate Variability and Climate Change)
Sections
- Improving the issuing, absorption and use of
climate forecast information in agroforestry
- Sustainable development and use of ecosystems with non-forest trees22
In Subchapter 2 of Chapter III.5 (Coping with Climate Variability and Climate
Change, Intermezzo 6), it would now be argued
that increasing climatic variability is part of climate change,
so a more appropriate heading would be
“Coping with increasing climatic variability”.
23
However, it is wise to follow the literature on such matters closely
as the statistics are highly debated
and there is often doubt regarding statements about
increasing climatic variability.
Nevertheless, the best proof is provided by tree ring studies.24
Various techniques have been described to calibrate
variation in ring-width with variations in climate
and reconstruct past variations in climate.
The simplest calibrations usually involve few statistics
and rely upon biological insight for recognition and documentation
of some type of relationship.25
Climate data are converted to growth estimates and compared to the
actual growth measurements.
Variation in ring-width is then used to infer
past variation in climate. 26
For Iberian pine forests, the greater occurrence
of extreme years and increased sensitivity
in the second half of the 20th century were in agreement with an increment
in the variability of precipitation during the growing period.
27
Variability in tree growth was positively correlated
with variability in precipitation,
with which radial trunk growth was negatively correlated.
28
Thus, a change in tree-growth pattern and the climatic response of the forests
examined since the mid-20th century were detected
and linked to an increase in water stress.
These temporal trends were consistent with
the observed warming of the climate and the increased variability
in precipitation. 29
More recent work than covered in the second Sub-chapter
of Chapter III. 5 (Intermezzo 6) shows that increasing variability
in rainfall is associated with lower tree cover
in moist tropical forests in all continents.
However, in the dry tropics, the effects of greater
year-to-year variability in rainfall depend on the continent involved. 30
Higher overall inter-annual variation in rainfall has
positive (South America), negative (Australia) or neutral (Africa) effects
on tree cover in drylands.
The effects of climatic variability in tropical drylands
appear to depend on the balance between extreme wet and dry events,
as well as the opportunities trees have to grow during rainy periods. 31
This conclusion affects agropastoralists
whose livelihood depends on rain-fed agriculture
and is highly vulnerable to ecological disturbance
caused by increasing climatic variability.
32
Although agropastoralists cannot adequately feed their animals
in times of extreme weather, such as floods and droughts,
disrupting their major source of livelihood,
most do not practice pasture management
and fodder conservation.33
Of the 21 tree browse species identified by agropastoralists, 18 were found to be important
during droughts and eight during floods.
Most agropastoralists neither knew
how to plant browse species nor how to manage them
for better and sustainable use in feeding their animals.34
Given the above conclusions regarding the essential opportunities
to grow during the rains, extension should assist pastoralists
to cope with these conditions by domesticating such tree species.
Both people and trees can adapt to change
on various time scales (Intermezzo 8).35
INTERMEZZO 8
How Trees and People Can Co-adapt To Climate Change
(Van Noordwijk et al., 2011)
36
Climate change, especially increased variability,
affects landscapes, human livelihoods and trees in many ways.
Both people and trees can adapt to change
at various time scales, but the current rate of change implies
that advance planning is needed as part of
integrated rural development. 37
Lessons learnt from “best practices” of rural development
and natural resource management in the tropics
suggest that developments that can be shared
more widely in the field and relevant research
to support their refinement are required.
38
The voluntary, conditional and pro-poor aspects
of financial rewards will help to bring
the voice of grassroots stakeholders into the international and national
decision-making processes of how to deal with climate change
to ensure realism and efficiency in climate change adaptation.
39
This is yet another strand to be integrated
in rural development programmes.
The argument for such an approach is built on the underlying concepts of climate change, rural livelihoods
and multi-functionality of landscapes.
40
The argument for such an approach is also built on the specific roles
of trees and farmers as providers of
environmental and climate services in agricultural landscapes.
However, trees themselves are vulnerable to climate change
and co-adaptation is needed, and possible.
41
END OF INTERMEZZO 8
42
Common land provides smallholder farmers in Africa
with firewood, timber and feed for livestock,
and is used to complement human diets
through collection of edible non-timber forest products
(NTFPs). 43
Farmers were willing to cultivate trees and
organise communal conservation of indigenous fruit trees, leading to prioritization
of pressing land use problems and identification
of the support needed.
44
This support needed included fast-growing trees for firewood,
inputs for crop production, knowledge on the cultivation
of indigenous fruit trees and clear regulations
and compliance with rules for extraction of NTFPs.
45
Well-managed communal resources can provide a strong tool to maintain and increase
the ability of rural communities to cope with
an increasingly variable climate.
46
Nevertheless, although less is known
about inter-annual variability than mean yields,
in addition to decreasing cereal yields
everywhere during the current century, the available data indicate
that variability in yield is likely to increase. 47
It is good to remember herethat we are dealing with
Recent Progress and Additions in Agroforestry,
on which we started in Lecture V.
So far we have handled (see also Intermezzo 6 in Lecture V)
A. Foundations to build on (Lecture V);
B. Strategic use of climate services for agroforestry (Lecture V);48
C. Coping with increasing climatic variability using agroforestry
(this Lecture VI)
In Lecture VII we will deal with (be aware of changed titles, in comparison with Intermezzo 6, that I explained or will explain):
D. Coping with extreme weather and climate events using agroforestry
49
In Lecture VIII we will start with:
E. Meteorological advisories/services of weather forecasting in agroforestry
In Lecture VIII we will also handle:
F. Developing strategies to cope with risks in and with agroforestry
Again note the adaptations made to these headings compared
with Intermezzo 6. I will explain. 50
Conclusions
- Increasing variability in rainfall is associated with lower tree cover in moist tropical forests.
Effects of climatic variability in tropical drylands appear to depend on the balance
between extreme wet and dry events, and the opportunities for trees to grow during rainy
periods.
- Communal resources can provide a strong tool to maintain and increase the ability of communities to cope with an increasingly
variable climate. Less is known about inter-annual variability than mean yields, with
decreasing cereal yields everywhere during the current century, the available data
indicate that variability in yield is likely to increase.
51
Recommendations
- Generating and presenting assessment results deemed to be credible, salient, and
legitimate by decision makers was essential for improving their
understanding of the potential impacts of climate change and enabling them to act
effectively to address them.
- Making the entire process inclusive, and keeping lines of communication open,
increases the chances that stakeholders and beneficiaries
will embrace change.
52
- Lessons learnt from “best practices” of rural development and natural resource
management in the tropics suggest that developments that can be shared
more widely in the field and relevant research to support their
refinement are required.
- This is another strand to be integrated in rural development programmes.
The argument for this approach is built on the underlying concepts of climate
change, rural livelihoods and multi-functionality of landscapes.
53