profiles in resiliency

h-gac.com Serving Today • Planning for Tomorrowh-gac.com Serving Today • Planning for Tomorrow

Profiles in Resiliency

Jillian DonattoSenior Planner,

Economic Recovery CoordinatorHouston-Galveston Area Council

[email protected]

Historic Flooding in the Houston-Galveston Region

h-gac.com Serving Today • Planning for Tomorrow

Coun t y Counc i l o f Gove r nmen t sCoun t y E conom i c Deve l opmen t D i s t r i c t13Coun t y Me t ropo l i t a n P l ann i ng Organ i za t i on8

50+S P E C I A L D I S T R I C T S

37C H A M B E R S

O F C O M M E R C E

34EDCs

About Our Region

PEOPLE7M

JOBS3M 135K

BUSINESSES

Loca l Gove r nmen t s134

About HoustonHurricane Harvey

Hurricane Damage Economic Shocks

Resiliency PlanningLessons Learned

31I N S T I T U T I O N S

O F H I G H E R L E A R N I N G


Growth DriversGreater Houston

Petrochemicals

Trade & Logistics Land & Mobility

Global Business Life Sciences

Diversity & Livability





Planning ChallengesGreater Houston

Extreme FloodingExpansion Trade-offs

Equitable Outcomes Education & SkillsBooms & Busts

Influencing Development

$/BBL vs Houston Unemployment Rate





The Largest Single Rainfall Event in US HistoryThe Event(s)

I N S U R E D F LO O D LO S S197 2 - 2 017

ME M

OR I A L D

A Y

T A X DA Y








3/19/21 6

Emergency Phase Response Phase Recovery and Long-Term Resilience

”Victim”Returned Resident

Displaced Donator

Post-hoc Planner & Implementer

On a Personal Note








3/19/21 7

What Happened?

Aug 13 Tropical Wave off Western AfricaAug 17 Tropical Storm HarveyAug 20 Governor declares Emergency

State Emergency Management Council,

28 agencies & universities

Aug 23 Enters Gulf, expected to hit TexasAug 24 Category 1, 80 mph windsAug 25, 12am Category 2, 100 mph winds

10am Category 4 (130-150mph)10pm Landfall,145 mph, 200 mi across

Rain Continued until Sept 3

“Thinking Fast & Slow”





3

3/19/21 8

High Water

1 Rockport, TX

3 Addicks Reservoir

2 Cotton, Rice & Cattle Farmers

4 Arkema Fertilizer Plant, Crosby, TX

WindStorm Surge

RiverineFlooding

Mechanical/System Failures

Reservoir ReleasesUrban FloodingRainfall Surge

h-gac.com Serving Today • Planning for Tomorrow3/19/21 9

Texas “a National Leader”Response





• 31,000 federal employees• 17,000 Texas National Guard• 122,331 rescues (5,234 pets)• 300 volunteer organizations• 3 million meals, bottles of water• 5,359 patients cared for• 750,000 evacuated, 692 shelters

Louisiana Cajun Navy


September 7 Governor establishesCommission to Rebuild Texas

3/19/21 10

Taking StockDust Settles





• Spearhead: Texas A&M University

• Assessing, rebuilding and strategies to protect from future storms

• 130 extension agents, Government relations support





$8 billion National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)

$4.5 billion Small Business Association

$1.5 billion FEMA, Individual Assistance (IA)

$1 billion Texas Windstorm Insurance Association

(TWIA)

$366,000 NICB (Private Insurance) Claims

477 Zip Codes, Avg Damage $30 million in direct losses

3/19/21 11

What Happened?

Total Est Damage = $125 BILLION








Urban areas had higher gross numbers, but…

Poorer, rural and under-resourced areas were

disproportionately affected

3/19/21 12

What Happened?

Equity Considerations

h-gac.com Serving Today • Planning for Tomorrow3/19/21 13

What Happened?Indirect Losses

ENVIRONMENTAL

• 266 hazardous spills, discharges

• 17 State and 34 National

Superfund Sites within affected area

• 50-100% mortality of oysters in

East and West Bay, dolphin &

shrimp

ECONOMIC

• Up to $2.5 billion lost due to

business downtime

• 300,000 flooded cars

• Projected loss of 55,000-75,000

jobs in the Gulf Coast region

• $0.40/gL increase in gas prices

SOCIAL

• Over 1 million public school

students affected

• 20% expected increase in

mental illnesses

• ChildrenÊs mental health needs

will peak after 12-18 months








3/19/21 14

Appropriations





Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

WHAT CHALLENGES REMAIN?

Land Cover: 2011Greater Houston


KEY INSIGHTSWhat We Learned from Harvey

TOWARD MORE RES I L I EN CY

Future Proofing from Multiple AnglesModeling future threats, Climate variability; Future

growth/development; Complex, multi-directional flood scenarios

Prioritizing Vulnerable PopulationsRebuilding, Relocation, Planning,

Ecological Protection

Need Coordinated Flood Risk ManagementPerverse Incentives of Insurance, Intergovernmental flood

planning at Watershed levels, Communications

Infrastructure ImprovementsIke Dike/Coastal Spine, Construction Code, Critical facilities,

Environmental Hazards, Open Spaces





GCEDD & Economic Resilience

Houston-Galveston Area CouncilAbout Houston

Hurricane HarveyHurricane Damage

Economic ShocksResiliency Planning

Lessons Learned

Water & Environmental Planning

h-gac.com Serving Today • Planning for Tomorrow Source: American Community Survey 2014-2018 5-Year Estimates18

WHAT WORKED?




Texas General Land OfficeCDBG Mitigation Funds

2020 Competitive RoundEquity-based Allocation2015 Floods $46,000,0002016 Floods $148,000,000Harvey $1 Billion


Zone Total Population Households Population in

PovertyNon-Hispanic

MinoritiesHispanic Minorities

Total in Zip-Zones(% of 13 counties)

1,683,795(24.2%)

563,455(23.8%)

242,731(16.2%)

294,423(16.2%)

758,502(29.7%)

Zip-Zone Coastal 73,618 29,582 14,481 13,999 27,137

Zip-Zone A 260,503 93,808 32,501 46,645 62,789

Zip-Zone B 404,558 144,104 46,092 58,563 122,150

Zip-Zone C 945,116 295,961 149,657 175,217 546,425

Zone Limited English Proficiency

Disable Family Elderly Car-less

Single Female Householder with

Child/Children

Total in Zip-Zones(% of 13 counties)

149,065(24.8%)

136,135 (27.4%)

70,742 (25.8%)

29,043 (23.5%)

54,771(24.0%)

Zip-Zone Coastal 4,205 8,986 4,139 2,868 2,552

Zip-Zone A 8,425 26,271 12,952 3,766 8,143

Zip-Zone B 17,158 34,789 20,540 6,319 11,601

Zip-Zone C 119,277 66,090 33,111 16,089 32,475

Source: American Community Survey 2014-2018 5-Year Estimates19

WHAT WORKED?About Houston

Hurricane HarveyHurricane Damage

Economic ShocksResiliency Planning

Lessons Learned


Have we become more resilient to other types of shocks?

Four Types, 10 Years

8.2

9.4

14.4

10.5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Jan'0

8

Apr'08Jul'08

Oct'08Jan'0

9

Apr'09Jul'09

Oct'09Jan'1

0

Apr'10Jul'10

Oct'10Jan'1

1

Apr'11Jul'11

Oct'11Jan'1

2

Apr'12Jul'12

Oct'12Jan'1

3

Apr'13Jul'13

Oct'13Jan'1

4

Apr'14Jul'14

Oct'14Jan'1

5

Apr'15Jul'15

Oct'15Jan'1

6

Apr'16Jul'16

Oct'16Jan'1

7

Apr'17Jul'17

Oct'17Jan'1

8

Apr'18Jul'18

Oct'18Jan'1

9

Apr'19Jul'19

Oct'19Jan'2

0

Apr'20Jul'20

Perc

enta

ge

Texas Houston MSA USSource: TWC and US Census Current Population Survey

U N E M P LOY M E N T R AT E

Energy Industry

Downturn

Great Recession

Harvey

Covid-19





Dec2012, $190

Feb2013, $135

Aug2017, $157

Dec2017, $240

Apr2019, $197

Jun2019, $221

Dec2019, $269

Apr2020, $175

Jun2020, $224

$100.00

$120.00

$140.00

$160.00

$180.00

$200.00

$220.00

$240.00

$260.00

$280.00

Nov

2012

Jan2

013

Mar

2013

May

2013

Jul2

013

Sep2

013

Nov

2013

Jan2

014

Mar

2014

May

2014

Jul2

014

Sep2

014

Nov

2014

Jan2

015

Mar

2015

May

2015

Jul2

015

Sep2

015

Nov

2015

Jan2

016

Mar

2016

May

2016

Jul2

016

Sep2

016

Nov

2016

Jan2

017

Mar

2017

May

2017

Jul2

017

Sep2

017

Nov

2017

Jan2

018

Mar

2018

May

2018

Jul2

018

Sep2

018

Nov

2018

Jan2

019

Mar

2019

May

2019

Jul2

019

Sep2

019

Nov

2019

Jan2

020

Mar

2020

May

2020

Mill

ions

Energy Industry

Downturn

Harvey

Hurricane Harvey Covid-19

Intersectional IssuesRegional Sales Tax





Population Growth SourcesWho is Coming to Houston?

P O P U L AT I O N G ROW T H S O U RC E S VS . TOTA L P O P U L AT I O N

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Natural Increase International Migration Net Domestic Migration

4,716,964

7,066,141 8MM

0

4MM

TOTA

L PO

PULA

TIO

NSO

URCES O

F POPU

LATIO

N CH

AN

GE

200K

0

100K

Energy Industry Downturn

Hurricane Katrina

Hurricane Harvey





• Regionalism is a muscle• Able to hunker down (not so well in a freeze)• Open space side of resilience a win-win-win

Covid RealityA New Shock, New or Same Lessons?




• Infrastructure hardening across transect• Political will and support from private sector

to adapt vs do just enough to get back to work? (Cost-Benefits)

What have past shocks taught us? What are we still learning?

FLOODING & FREEZING

• Real Estate: integrating land use,

infrastructure and resiliency

• BROADBAND - Long-term remote work,

remote schooling and telehealth is not an

option.

• Vulnerability of industry concentration

• Education, Digital skills gaps widening divides

• Social Impacts have very real economic

impacts

ECONOMIC DIVERSITY


Resiliency MindsetNot a Plan, A Way of Thinking




Bottom-Up Guideposts

Growth Mindset Needed

for Adaptability

For institutions, our workforce, populations, policy makers, Building resilient muscles to

resist disaster fatigue

Getting Leaner, Reorganizing

or Letting Go of Silos

Institutions, political boundaries, “Discrete” uses of critical

Infrastructure

If you can protect and plan for the lowest common denominator, smoother transition

and shortens recovery dramatically

h-gac.com Serving Today • Planning for Tomorrowh-gac.com Serving Today • Planning for Tomorrow

Thank youIf you have any questions feel free to contact:

Jillian DonattoSenior Planner

Houston-Galveston Area [email protected]

profiles in resiliency

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