0

PROFIT PREDICTION FOR BABY PRODUCTS

BASED ON CONSUMERS’ PURCHASING

BEHAVIOR

NURSYAZA BINTI HUSSIN

BACHELOR OF COMPUTER SCIENCE

(SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT) WITH HONOURS

UNIVERSITI SULTAN ZAINAL ABIDIN

2019

1

PROFIT PREDICTION FOR BABY PRODUCTS

BASED ON CONSUMERS’ PURCHASING BEHAVIOR

NURSYAZA BINTI HUSSIN

BACHELOR OF COMPUTER SCIENCE

(SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT) WITH HONOURS

FACULTY OF INFORMATICS AND COMPUTING

UNIVERSITI SULTAN ZAINAL ABIDIN

2019

I

DECLARATION

This dissertation is submitted as a partial fulfilment for the award of a Bachelor of

Computer Science (Software Development) with Honors at the University Sultan Zainal

Abidin (UniSZA), Terengganu, Malaysia. This work is a result of my investigation. All

section of the text and results, which have been obtaining from other sources are fully

referenced.

Signature : …………………

Name : Nursyaza Binti Hussin

Date : 12 May 2019

II

CONFIRMATION

This project report titled Profit Prediction for Baby Products Based On Consumers’

Purchasing Behavior was prepared and submitted by Nursyaza Binti Hussin and has been

found satisfactory in terms of scope, quality and presentation as a part of fulfillment of the

requirement for the Bachelor of Computer Science (Software Development) with Honours

in Universiti Sultan Zainal Abidin.

Signature : …………………………...

Supervisor : Mr. Mohd Isa Bin Awang

Date : 9 May 2019

III

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I would like to express my deepest appreciation to all who provided me the possibility

complete this report. A special gratitude goes to my supervisor, Mr. Mohd Isa Bin Awang

for guiding me in the development of this project. My warmest gratitude for my Final Year

Project panels for aiding my system and giving the feedback and valuable guidance.

I take this opportunity to thank my parents and my family for giving moral support

and encouragement. Special thanks to all lectures under Faculty of Informatics and

Computing for their attentions, guidance and advice in developing this project. I, sincere

thanks to my fellow friends for their help in finishing this project.

IV

ABSTRACT

Anakku is the trusted baby brand in Malaysia that offers all categories of childcare.

The company find it difficult to calculate profit based on baby products sales because of

the different cost and sale by each product. It also hard to estimate future business

performance. Profit prediction for baby products based on consumers’ purchasing behavior

system is a business method for Anakku baby brand. The system aims to facilitate customers

to make reservations and facilitate management to manage baby product stocks effectively.

The technique to be adapted in the project is to use the least square method which is a way

to generate profit forecasts in the future. Forecasting sales and profits is essential to

planning for business success. The result for this project is enable to estimate future

business performance based on the actual profits from prior periods and enables the baby

shop owner to modify the operation of the business on a timely basis. So, as a conclusion

this project allows the business to avoid losses or major financial problems should some

future results from operations not conform with reasonable expectations.

V

ABSTRAK

Anakku adalah jenama bayi yang dipercayai di Malaysia yang menawarkan semua

kategori penjagaan anak. Syarikat ini sukar untuk mengira keuntungan berdasarkan

penjualan produk bayi kerana kos dan jualan yang berbeza oleh setiap produk. Ia juga

sukar untuk menganggarkan prestasi perniagaan masa hadapan. “Profit prediction based

on consumers’ purchasing behavior” adalah kaedah perniagaan untuk jenama bayi

Anakku. Sistem ini bertujuan untuk memudahkan pelanggan membuat tempahan dan

memudahkan pengurusan untuk menguruskan stok produk bayi dengan berkesan. Teknik

yang akan disesuaikan dalam projek ini adalah menggunakan “least square method” yang

merupakan cara untuk menjana ramalan keuntungan pada masa akan datang. Hasil

daripada projek ini membolehkan untuk menganggarkan prestasi perniagaan masa depan

berdasarkan keuntungan sebenar dari tempoh sebelumnya dan membolehkan pemilik kedai

bayi mengubahsuai operasi perniagaan secara tepat waktu. Oleh itu, sebagai kesimpulan

projek ini membolehkan perniagaan untuk mengelakkan kerugian atau masalah kewangan

utama sekiranya beberapa keputusan masa depan dari operasi tidak sesuai dengan

harapan yang munasabah.

VI

CONTENTS

DECLARATION ............................................................................................................................. i

CONFIRMATION .......................................................................................................................... ii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ............................................................................................................. iii

ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................................... iv

ABSTRAK ....................................................................................................................................... v

CONTENTS .................................................................................................................................... vi

LIST OF TABLES ....................................................................................................................... viii

LIST OF FIGURES ....................................................................................................................... ix

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS / TERMS / SYMBOLS ............................................................... xii

CHAPTER 1 ................................................................................................................................... 1

1.1 Background ................................................................................................................................ 1

1.2 Problem Statement ............................................................................................................... 3

1.3 Objective .............................................................................................................................. 4

1.4 Scope .......................................................................................................................................... 5

1.5 Limitation of Works ................................................................................................................... 5

1.6 Expected Results ........................................................................................................................ 6

1.7 Activities and Milestones ........................................................................................................... 7

1.8 Summary .................................................................................................................................... 8

CHAPTER 2 ................................................................................................................................... 9

2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 9

2.2 Related Research Techniques and Tools .................................................................................. 10

2.3 Least Square Method ............................................................................................................... 12

2.4 Summary .................................................................................................................................. 14

CHAPTER 3 ................................................................................................................................. 15

3.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 15

3.2 Agile development ................................................................................................................... 16

3.3 Software and Hardware Requirement ................................................................................. 19

3.4 Framework ............................................................................................................................... 21

3.5 Context Diagram ...................................................................................................................... 22

3.6 Data Flow Diagram .................................................................................................................. 24

3.7 Entity Relationship Diagram .................................................................................................... 28

VII

3.8 Data Dictionary ........................................................................................................................ 29

3.9 Algorithm and Technique ........................................................................................................ 32

3.10 Summary ................................................................................................................................ 37

CHAPTER 4 ................................................................................................................................. 38

4.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 38

4.2 Implementation of the System ............................................................................................. 39

4.3 Programming Language ....................................................................................................... 40

4.4 Interface Design ................................................................................................................... 40

4.5 Chapter Summary ................................................................................................................ 72

CHAPTER 5 ................................................................................................................................. 73

5.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 73

5.2 Testing Analysis ................................................................................................................... 74

5.3 Test Cases ............................................................................................................................ 75

5.3 Chapter Summary .......................................................................................................... 79

CHAPTER 6 ................................................................................................................................. 80

6.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 80

6.2 Project Contribution ............................................................................................................. 80

6.3 Result Discussion ................................................................................................................. 81

6.4 Project Constraints and Limitation ...................................................................................... 81

6.5 Future Work ......................................................................................................................... 82

6.6 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................... 82

REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................. 83

VIII

LIST OF TABLES

TABLE TITLE

PAGE

Table 1.1 Gantt chart

7

Table 3.1 Software Requirement

19

Table 3.2 Hardware Requirement

20

Table 3.3 Gross profit example data

33

Table 3.4

Least square method example data

35

Table 3.5

Least square method Y’ result 36

Table 5.1 Test Case Fail Login

75

Table 5.2 Test Case Admin Success Login

76

Table 5.3 Test Case Customer Success Login

76

Table 5.4 Test Case Add Product

77

Table 5.5 Test Case Update Product

77

Table 5.6 Test Case Delete Product

77

Table 5.7 Test Case Manage Order

78

Table 5.8 Test Case Forecast Sales

79

Table 5.9 Test Case Forecast Profit

79

IX

LIST OF FIGURES

FIGURE TITLE

PAGE

Figure 3.1 Agile development

36

Figure 3.2

Framework 21

Figure 3.3

Context Diagram 22

Figure 3.4

Data Flow Diagram Level 0 24

Figure 3.5

Data Flow Diagram sign up Level 1 26

Figure 3.6

Data Flow Diagram manage product Level 1 27

Figure 3.7

Entity relationship diagram 28

Figure 3.8

Table user 30

Figure 3.9

Table product 30

Figure 3.10

Table orderpro 30

Figure 3.11

Table payment 31

Figure 3.12

Table profit 31

Figure 4.1 Login for Admin

41

Figure 4.2 Home (main page)

42

Figure 4.3 Add product (display product form)

43

Figure 4.4 Update product (display list of product)

44

Figure 4.5 Update product (display product form)

44

Figure 4.6 Delete product (display list of product)

45

X

Figure 4.7 Search customer details (display list of customer details)

46

Figure 4.8 Search customer details (result search)

46

Figure 4.9 Update order (display list of order details)

47

Figure 4.10 Update order (display update form)

48

Figure 4.11 Update payment (display list of payment)

49

Figure 4.12 Update order (display update form)

50

Figure 4.13 Select product name (sales by product)

52

Figure 4.14 Display report (sales by product)

52

Figure 4.15 Select product name (sales by month)

53

Figure 4.16 Display report (sales by month)

53

Figure 4.17 Select product name (profit by product)

54

Figure 4.18 Display report (profit by product)

54

Figure 4.19 Select product name (profit by month)

55

Figure 4.20 Display report (profit by month)

55

Figure 4.21 Select product name (forecast sales (quantity) by product)

56

Figure 4.22 Display report (forecast sales (quantity) by product)

56

Figure 4.23 Select product name (forecast profit by product)

57

Figure 4.24 Display report (forecast profit by product)

57

Figure 4.25 Home (before login)

58

Figure 4.26 Product display (before login)

59

Figure 4.27 Customer registration

60

Figure 4.28 Customer login

61

Figure 4.29 Customer home

62

Figure 4.30 Customer home (product category) 62

XI

Figure 4.31 Virtual Reality Store Main Menu

63

Figure 4.32 Virtual Reality Store Main Menu (info)

64

Figure 4.33 Virtual Reality Store Main Menu (plan)

64

Figure 4.34 Virtual Reality Store Main Menu (click product)

65

Figure 4.35 Add to cart

66

Figure 4.36 My cart

67

Figure 4.37 Shipping address (form)

68

Figure 4.38 Payment

69

Figure 4.39 Order status

70

Figure 4.40 Search product

71

XII

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS / TERMS / SYMBOLS

CD

Context Diagram

DFD Data Flow Diagram

ERD Entity Relationship Diagram

SDLC System Development Life Cycle

COGS Cost of Goods Sold

XIII

LIST OF APPENDICES

APPENDIX TITLE PAGES

1 Gantt Chart

84

1

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background

Anakku is the trusted baby brand in Malaysia that offers all categories of childcare.

The brand received recognition from the Malaysian Textile Manufacturer Association

(MTMA). Anakku started manufacturing and marketing a wide range of basic baby apparel.

Anakku has a wide variety of products that are competitively priced for a wide market

segment. Parents wanted more than just comfortable apparel that lasts. Then, Anakku went

the extra mile to further expand its range to include fashion wear for babies and toddlers,

feeding equipment, toiletries for both parents and babies, accessories, baby wipes, strollers,

playpens and more.

Profit prediction for baby products based on consumer purchasing behavior system

is a business method for Anakku baby brand. The system aims to facilitate customers to

make reservations and facilitate management to manage baby product stocks effectively.

2

In addition, this system becomes more efficient when work such as searching, storing,

updating information can be implemented more quickly and regularly.

The technique to be adapted in the project is to use the least square method which

is a way to generate profit forecasts in the future. Forecasting sales and profits is essential

to planning for business success. This process estimating future business performance

based on the actual profits from prior periods, enables the baby shop owner to modify the

operation of the business on a timely basis. This allows the business to avoid losses or

major financial problems should some future results from operations not conform with

reasonable expectations.

This project is developed specifically for baby shop owner who can help to facilitate

the online purchase process as well as assist future business plans to increase profitability

and avoid losses. They can make business planning based on the profit prediction result

and gain more profit in the future. Business planning is important to maintain the business

performance and makes business success.

3

1.2 Problem Statement

1) Difficulties to gauge profitability by baby products sales

The company find it difficult to calculate profit based on baby products sales

because of the different cost and sale by each product. Each product has their own

cost to be produced and the cost are including the cost of expenses and the cost of

goods sold. So, the calculation is different by each product and takes time to

calculate. Profit is income earned by the sales and it is very important part because

wrong calculation will affect the business future.

2) Arduous in estimates future business performance

Estimating future business performance based on the actual profits from

prior periods, enables the manager to modify the operation of the business on a

timely basis. Prediction for future profit can shows which product are profitable and

which product are making a loss. The business needs to avoid losses or major

financial problems should some future results from operations not conform with

reasonable expectations.

4

1.3 Objective

1) To design a system for ordering and manage baby products

This is an online shopping system for customer to make an order for baby

products and facilitate management to manage baby products stocks.

2) To implement least square method to forecast profit in selected period of times

The system using least square method to forecast profit by month. The

calculation is made by the actual past month profits sale and makes forecasting

profit.

3) To test the capabilities of the system and produce profit forecast based on sales

Customer can easily make an order for baby products and facilitate

management to manage baby products stocks effectively. The system can calculate

profit for baby products and profit forecasting for a next month.

5

1.4 Scope

The scope for this project is identified and divided by two which is Customer and Admin.

1) Customer

Customer can register to system before able to login the system using email

and password. Customer can view all the products and the details. Customer can

order the product and update the order before makes a confirmation. After makes a

confirmation, customer can make a payment based on their orders. Customer also

can check on their order status.

2) Admin

Admin can manage baby products stock with update the details and quantity

of availability baby products stock. Admin can view the customer’s order and

payment to manage the process of product delivery. Admin can view the profit by

the product categories and month. Admin can view the prediction of future profit

by product. Admin also can view the all system report.

1.5 Limitation of Works

The limitation of this system is the system can be used only in web based. In this

system, admin able to view the profit by categories and profit prediction only for the

next month.

6

1.6 Expected Results

The expected results of this system are:

Able to view profitability based on baby products sales

Forecasting profit for baby products based on the actual profits from prior

periods to estimates future business performance

7

1.7 Activities and Milestones

Using a Gantt Chart that describes key of activities and timescales involves in

implementing this project

Task

Week

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

1.0 Project Introduction Phase

1.1 Title Proposal

1.2 Proposal Writing (Introduction)

1.2.1 Background

1.2.2 Problem statement

1.2.1 Objectives

1.2.3 Scope

1.2.4 Limitation of work

1.2.5 Expected results

1.2.6 Activities and Milestones

1.2.7 Submission and Correction

2.0 Literature Review

2.1 Related Technique

2.2 System Technique

2.3 Submission and Correction

3.0 Design and Specification Phase

3.1 Project Methodology

3.2 Software and Hardware

3.3 Framework

3.4 Context Diagram

3.5 Dataflow Diagram

3.6 Entity Relationship Diagram

3.7 Data Dictionary

3.8 Submission and Correction

Table 1.1: Gantt chart

8

1.8 Summary

Overall in this chapter, it was briefly explained about the background, problem

statement, objectives, scope, limitation of work, expected outcome, activities and

milestones. Based on this chapter, we can see the aim and target that system should achieve

and overcome problem by the expected outcome.

9

CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Introduction

In this chapter, the significant literatures reviewed which described how this project

relates with existing research. The system related research is on forecasting technique.

Other forecasting methods are compared to for better understanding for method used in this

system. There are various technique and methods that had been used in order to make an

accurate forecasting. Each method is used for different approaches targeting for different

businesses.

10

2.2 Related Research Techniques and Tools

First article Is (CLAUDIMAR PEREIRA DA VEIGA, 2014) stated the present article aims

the comparison between two linear demand forecasting models which is The

Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and the Holt-Winters (HW)

model. These techniques have exceptional adaptive capacity to deal with the linearity in

problem solving. The ARIMA forecasting model does not always have the desired accuracy

for a given range. In addition, ARIMA model has many assumptions that cannot be met.

One of the most important assumptions is that the historical pattern of the data will not

change during the forecast period. The Holt-Winters model is simple and can provide

accurate forecasting results as those obtained with more complex techniques. However, it

is recommended that the horizon of the predictions made with the Holt-Winters method

does not exceed the seasonal cycle of the series, because the predictions with a larger

horizon tend to have reduced accuracy.

Second article is Kumar (2013) applied various statistical time series models to

observe forecast errors in the demand of juice production are within the expected limit and

to select a forecasting technique which has a less relative error and showed that Least

Square Method is more accurate than the others. To forecast milk production in India using

statistical time series modeling- Double Exponential Smoothing and Auto- Regressive

Integrated Moving Average and concluded that ARIMA performed better than the others.

11

Third article is (Sonia Akhter**, September 2016) stated a forecast is an estimate

of an event which will happen in future. The event may be demand of a product, rainfall at

a particular place, population of a country, or growth of a technology. Forecasting provides

a basis for coordination of plans for activities in various part of a company. Application of

different method for demand forecasting is Simple Moving Average Method, Weighted

Moving Average Method, Simple Exponential Smoothing Method and Least Square

Method. Forecasting of Coca-Cola production has done by using statistical methods,

(Moving Average method, Simple Exponential Method and Least Square Method).

Statistical methods are chosen because of their rich historic data and ease of their use.

Finally, their performance was evaluated by comparing the MAPE, MAD and MSE

obtained from the different methods. The results show that Simple Exponential Smoothing

method is more accurate than the other methods.

12

2.3 Least Square Method

To predict the mean y-value for a given t-value, the line which passes through the

mean value of both t and y and which minimizes the sum of the distance between each of

the points and the predictive line. Such an approach should result in a line which we can

call a "best fit" to the sample data. The least squares method achieves this result by

calculating the minimum average squared deviations between the sample y points and the

estimated line. A procedure is sued for finding the values of a and b which reduces to the

solution of simultaneous linear equations. Shortcut formulas have been developed as an

alternative to the solution of simultaneous equations.

The estimation of trend analysis can be use least square method as one of the time

series models. Least square method is a method of constructing a straight line equation

through data points to obtain the best fitting line. This is the mathematical method of

obtaining the line of best fit between the dependent variable and an independent variable.

In this, the sum of the square of the deviations of the various points from the line of best fit

is most minimum or least. For straight line,

𝑌′=𝑎+𝑏𝑡

where 𝑌′ is estimated value of the variable 𝑌′ for a given value of 𝑡 and 𝑡 is the number of

time periods from 𝑡 = 0, 𝑎 is the value of y at 𝑡=0 (y – intercept) and b is slope of the line.

Parameters a and b can be calculated using the least-squares method.

13

Steps to forecast using linear line:

First, calculate use this formula to get 𝑏

Second, calculate use this formula to get 𝑎

Third, generate the linear trend line

𝒀′=𝒂+𝒃𝒕

Lastly, to make a forecast, use the linear trend line equation and replace the t to get Y’

14

2.4 Summary

Overall in this chapter, the research study is for better understanding in method and

technique use in the system. The selection of accurate techniques is very important to make

sure that the system at the right place before implement the method to system. The system

will successfully develop if the method is suitable for the objective of the system. Based on

the research study, we conclude that the least square method is the best suit for this system.

15

CHAPTER 3

METHODOLOGY

3.1 Introduction

The methodology is the set of the complete guideline that includes the models of

tools to carry out activities in the Software Development Life Cycle (SDLC). SDLC splits

the work into phases of activity for better planning and management of the system

development. In order to achieve the objective of the project, a good planning and

methodology must be done before the later stage of the process began.

16

3.2 Agile development

The methodology that will be used in Profit Prediction based on Consumers’

Purchasing Behavior is Agile development. Agile development is an approach to

project management that is used in software development. This methodology assists the

unpredictability of constructing software and works as an iterative work sequences

which is the activities are repeated until the whole system is built.

There are six phases involved in the agile development which is requirements phase,

planning phase, design phase, development phase, release phase, track and monitoring

phase.

Figure 3.1: Agile development

17

3.2.1 Requirements Phase

At this phase, the process occurred is collecting the requirement and understand the

problems of the system. Find and analysis the existing system while determine their

technique and method involved. Brainstorming the project idea and proposed the title of

the project. Then, Profit Prediction based on Consumers’ Purchasing Behavior based on

consumers’ purchasing behavior was decided.

3.2.2 Planning Phase

During this phase, objectives of the system are identifying and all the requirements

are gathered in order to develop the system. Research for the system are being allocated

and research for the system is made by reading articles and journals related to the system

and the method used. System scheduling is created using a gantt chart to ensure that the

system will develop systematically and to make sure the project can be done on time.

3.2.3 Design Phase

Design phase of the system was developed based on the requirement and output

produced during analysis phase. Design the Context Diagram (CD), Data Flow Diagram

(DFD), and Entity Relationship Diagram (ERD) is build to translate the process flow of the

Profit Prediction based on Consumers’ Purchasing Behavior. These diagrams refer as

guidelines while develop this system. Then, designing the interface design of system as a

prototype before develop the system.

18

3.2.4 Development Phase

In this phase, all activities that have been planned during phase before are executed.

The system is developed using XAMPP, MySQL and Notepad++. Database and interface

designed during design phase are started to be developed. The process of writing the coding

are being done and the progress of the system are reported from time to time.

3.2.5 Release Phase

During this phase, the system is released to be used by the user. The users use the

system and give their feedback whether it needs to be improved or there is anything that

needs to be modify.

3.2.6 Track and Monitoring Phase

Track the error and modifications are being made based on the feedback from the

user to make sure the system is completely fulfilling the requirements. Then, monitor the

system to prevent the problem in the future.

19

3.3 Software and Hardware Requirement

In developing a system, hardware and software are required to develop a

successful system.

3.3.1 Software Requirement

Software

Function

Web Browser (Google Chrome) As a platform to run the system

Server (PHPMyAdmin) As a system database

Microsoft Office Word 2010 Used for documentation of the report

Microsoft Powerpoint 2010 Used for slide presentation

Visio To design context diagram and data flow

diagram

Table 3.1: Software Requirement

20

3.3.2 Hardware Requirement

Hardware

Type/

ASUS - Installed RAM : 8.00 GB

- Processor : Intel® Core ™ i7-

7700HQ @ 2.80- GHz

- System type : 64-bit Operating

System

- Windows edition : Windows 10

Home Single Language

Pendrive SanDisk 16 GB For backup and transfer data

Hard Disk Transcend 1 TB For backup system file

Printer HP Deskjet

For print out document

Table 3.2: Hardware Requirement

21

3.4 Framework

WEB Server Database

Customer Website Admin

Sign up

Order

Order status

Manage order

Order details

Figure 3.2: Framework

22

3.5 Context Diagram

Context diagram for Profit Prediction Based On Consumers’ Purchasing Behavior

is shown above. There are two entities are involves in the system which is ADMIN and

CUSTOMER.

Figure 3.3: Context Diagram

23

3.5.1 System Flow

System flow for Customer :-

1) CUSTOMER register to the system

2) CUSTOMER log in to the system

3) CUSTOMER update the user information

4) CUSTOMER order the product

5) CUSTOMER make the payment of purchase product

6) CUSTOMER get the order stastus

7) CUSTOMER get the order receipt

System flow for ADMIN :-

1) ADMIN log in to the system

2) ADMIN key in and update the product information

3) ADMIN get product report

4) ADMIN get user report

5) ADMIN get order report

6) ADMIN get payment report

7) ADMIN get result of forecast profit

24

3.6 Data Flow Diagram

3.6.1 Data Flow Diagram Level 0

Figure 3.4: Data Flow Diagram Level 0

25

There are six processes in data flow diagram that involves customer and admin

which is sign up, log in, manage order, payment, manage product, and generate report. First

user is customer. Customer need to sign up first, then login to the system as a first step to

get into the system. After login, Customer can make an order and payment. After that,

customer can check on order status. At the end on the process, customer can be logout from

the system.

Second user is admin. Admin need to login as the first step to get into the system.

Then process that involve admin are manage order, manage product and Generate Report

from the system. At the end on the process, admin can be logout from the system.

26

3.6.2 Data Flow Diagram Level 1

3.6.2.1 Data Flow Diagram Level 1 for Sign Up:

There are two processes in data flow diagram level 1 for sign up that involve

customer which is register and update. Customer need to register and after register,

customer can update customer information.

Figure 3.5: Data Flow Diagram sign up Level 1

27

3.6.2.2 Data Flow Diagram Level 1 for Manage Product:

There are two processes in data flow diagram level 1 for manage product that

involve admin which is add and update. Admin can add new product and update the

product.

Figure 3.6: Data Flow Diagram manage product Level 1

28

3.7 Entity Relationship Diagram

An entity relationship diagram (ERD) illustrates an information system’s entities

and the relationship between those entities. ERD composed of three things such as

identifying and defining the entities, determine entities interaction and the cardinality of

the relationship. Five tables that are involved in this system which is user, product,

orderpro, payment and profit.

Figure 3.7: Entity relationship diagram

29

3.8 Data Dictionary

A data dictionary is a file or a set of files that contains a database's metadata. The

data dictionary contains records about other objects in the database, such as data ownership,

data relationships to other objects, and other data. The data dictionary is a crucial

component of any relational database. Ironically, because of its importance, it is invisible

to most database users. For most relational database management systems (RDBMS), the

database management system software needs the data dictionary to access the data within

a database.

1. TABLE user

2. TABLE product

3. TABLE orderpro

4. TABLE payment

5. TABLE profit

30

3.8.1 TABLE user

3.8.2 TABLE product

3.8.3 TABLE orderpro

Figure 3.8: Table user

Figure 3.9: Table product

Figure 3.10: Table orderpro

31

3.8.4 TABLE payment

3.8.5 TABLE profit

Figure 3.11: Table payment

Figure 3.12: Table profit

32

3.9 Algorithm and Technique

There are two calculation for this system which is use gross profit formula and least

square method.

3.9.1 Gross Profit

Gross profit is a calculation to calculate profit sales. Gross profit is not include other

expenses. This is the formula for gross profit:

Revenue – COGS = Gross Profit

Revenue is a cost used to produce the product

COGS stand for cost of goods sold which means price to sell

33

3.9.1.2 Example data and calculation

Type Example Data (RM)

Unit cost 80

Price 100

Revenue 400

First, calculate use this formula to get margin,

(Unit cost / price) x 100 = Margin

(80 /100) x100 = 80%

Second, calculate use this formula and to get COGS,

Revenue x Margin = COGS

400 x 80% = 320

Then, calculate use this formula to get gross profit,

Revenue – COGS = Gross Profit

400 – 320 = 80

The gross profit is 80.

Table 3.3: Gross profit example data

34

3.9.2 Least Square Method

This method is to predict the mean y-value for a given t-value, a line passes through

the mean value of both t and y and which minimizes the sum of the distance between each

of the points and the predictive line. The equation of straight line:

𝑌′=𝑎+𝑏𝑡

• 𝑌′ is the estimated value of the variable 𝑌′ for a given value of 𝑡

• 𝑎 is the intercept on Y-axis (estimated value of Y at 𝑡 = 0)

• 𝑏 is a slope of the line

• 𝑡 is any value of time that is selected

To estimate two unknown parameters (a and b) that give the straight line equation, two

equations need to be solved simultaneously.

35

3.9.2.3 Example data and calculation

This is an example of the data which is given month and profit. The t, tY and tt is

calculate based on the month and profit given.

Month Profit (RM Thousand) t tY tt

January 10 1 10 1

February 20 2 40 4

March 12 3 36 9

April 17 4 68 16

May 23 5 115 25

Σ 82 15 269 55

First, calculate use this formula to get b

Second, calculate use this formula to get a

So, the trend equation is therefore 𝑌′=11.6 + 1.6 𝑡

Then, use the trend equation and replace the t to get Y’.

269 – (82) (15) / 5

55 – (15^2) / 5

= 1.6

(82 / 5) – 1.6 (15 / 5) = 11.6

Table 3.4: Least square method example data

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Month Profit (RM Thousand) t Y’

January 10 1 11.6 + 1.6 (1) = 13.2

February 20 2 11.6 + 1.6 (2) = 14.8

March 12 3 11.6 + 1.6 (3) = 16.4

April 17 4 11.6 + 1.6 (4) = 18

May 23 5 11.6 + 1.6 (5) = 19.6

Y’ for January is 13.2, February is 14.8, March is 16.4, April is 18 and May is 19.6. So,

calculation Y’ for June is replace the t with 6.

11.6 + 1.6 (6) = 21.2

Forecast sales for June is 21.2.

Table 3.5: Least square method Y’ result

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3.10 Summary

Overall in this chapter, it was briefly explained about the methodology, framework,

Context Diagram (CD), Data Flow Diagram (DFD), Entity Relationship Diagram (ERD)

and show the data dictionary. The methodology is the set of the complete guideline that

includes the models of tools to carry out system activities. The selection of accurate

methodology is very important to make sure that the system is successful implemented and

achieved the objective. A framework is a set of functions within a system and how

communication should be standardized at some level of a network. A framework is

generally more comprehensive than a protocol and more prescriptive than a structure. Then,

Context Diagram, Data Flow Diagram (DFD) and Entity Relationship Diagram (ERD) are

diagram that show the flow of the system works. ERD composed of three things such as

identifying and defining the entities, determine entities interaction and the cardinality of

the relationship. Next, data dictionary is a file or a set of files that contains a database's

metadata. The data dictionary contains records about other objects in the database, such as

data ownership, data relationships to other objects, and other data. The data dictionary is a

crucial component of any relational database. Ironically, because of its importance, it is

invisible to most database users. For most relational database management systems

(RDBMS), the database management system software needs the data dictionary to access

the data within a database.

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CHAPTER 4

IMPLEMENTATION

4.1 Introduction

The implementation is the process of carrying out, execution, or practice of the

method, design or model according to the specification given by the user requirement.

The goal of this chapter is to show on the flow of the system during the development

process.

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4.2 Implementation of the System

For developing the Profit Prediction for Baby Product Based on Consumer’s

Purchasing Behavior, several programming languages has been used. The Xampp version

1.8.3-5 (v 3.2.1) with Apache version 2.4.10 are used to run the localhost server. The

Notepad++ version 6.3.6 are used for writing the code.

The interface design is using the bootstrap template. The serverside programming

language is using the Hypertext Preprocessor (PHP). The PHP is a powerful tool for

making dynamic and interactive Web Pages and widely used because it is general purpose

scripting language which can be embedded into HTML.

The validation used in this system is HTML5, PHP and JavaScript. The validation

is important to avoid the user from input malicious data and ensuring the input is clean,

correct and useful. For example, the name can accept only the alphabet, if user input the

number system will give a warning for the user to input the alphabet only.

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4.3 Programming Language

• PHP – use for form processes

• HTML5 – use to design interfaces

• JavaScript – use for graph and validation

4.4 Interface Design

The interface design which will be used for developing the system is shown as

below. The interface is developed from the data decomposition and the system

requirements. This system can be divided into 2 users which admin and customer.

4.4.1 Admin

Admin must login to the system before they can access to their module. The

interface for Admin to login into the system as shown in Figure 4.1.

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4.4.1.1 Login Interface

Figure 4.1 show the login screen for admin. The first login asks the username and

password. If the username and password are wrong, the system will display an error

message “Wrong email and password!”.

Figure 4.1: Login for Admin

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4.4.1.2 Dashboard

In this module, only admin is permitted to perform this action. This module for

admin to manage the product, order and payment. Admin also can view report from this

module. The main button for this interface are home, sales, profit, forecast, manage and log

out. From this interface we can see the earning by monthly, earning by annual, total sales

and earning graph. This data is real time updated based on sales.

Figure 4.2: Home (main page)

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4.4.1.3 Manage Product

Manage product module also can be performed by admin only. This module provide

admin to add product, update product and delete product from the database. Add product

will involve process in Figure 4.3 that display add product form. To update the product,

system will show as figure 4.4, list all the product. Insert product id and click “Update”

button then it will redirect to update form in Figure 4.5. Figure 4.6 will show the interface

to delete product from product list. Insert product id and click “Delete” button then it will

display message “Successfully deleted!”, then it will display error message “Data Not

Valid” if insert wrong product id.

Figure 4.3: Add product (display product form)

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Figure 4.4: Update product (display list of product)

Figure 4.5: Update product (display product form)

45

Figure 4.6: Delete product (display list of product)

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4.4.1.4 Manage user

In manage user module, admin can manage to search customer information. Insert

the customer email and click “Search” button. Then it will display the full customer

information on figure 4.8. Admin use the customer information for shipping purpose.

Figure 4.7: Search customer details (display list of customer details)

Figure 4.8: Search customer details (result search)

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4.4.1.5 Manage Order

In manage order module, admin can manage to update customer order information

such as order status and tracking number on Figure 4.10. Figure 4.9 will display the list of

customer order then insert order id to update the information by click Update button. After

that, it will redirect to the update form on Figure 4.10 and admin need to choose order

status. There are three available order status which is “in process”, “to ship” and

“completed”. Admin also need to insert tracking number if order status changed to “to ship”

status. Click save button to update the information.

Figure 4.9: Update order (display list of order details)

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Figure 4.10: Update order (display update form)

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4.4.1.6 Manage Payment

In manage payment module, admin can manage to update customer payment

information such as payment status on Figure 4.12. Figure 4.11 will display the list of

customer payment then insert payment id to update and display the information by click

Update button. After that, it will redirect to the payment display and update form on Figure

4.12 and admin need to check the payment receipt details and choose payment status. There

are three available order status which is “in process”, “confirm received” and “complete”.

Click save button to update the information.

Figure 4.11: Update payment (display list of payment)

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Figure 4.12: Update order (display update form)

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4.4.1.7 Report

Report for admin separated into 6 type of reports that is customer sales report by

product, sales report by month, profit report by product, profit report by month, forecast

sales report and forecast profit report. Sales report by product are shown on Figure 4.14

that displayed list of all sales quantity and total sales by month for selected product name.

Then, sales report by month and are shown on Figure 4.16 that displayed list of all sales

quantity and total sales by product name for selected month.

Figure 4.17 need admin to select product for profit report by product and click Next.

Profit report by product are shown on Figure 4.18 that displayed list of all sales quantity,

total sales and total profit by month for selected product name. Then, Figure 4.19 need

admin to select month for profit report by month and click Next. Profit report by month are

shown on Figure 4.20 that displayed list of all sales quantity, total sales and total profits by

product for selected month.

Figure 4.21 need admin to select product for forecast sales quantity report by

product and click Next. Forecast sales quantity report by product are shown on Figure 4.22

that displayed list of all sales quantity, total sales and forecast sales quantity at the below

by month for selected product name. Then, Figure 4.23 need admin to select month for

forecast profit report by month and click Next. Forecast profit report by month are shown

on Figure 4.24 that displayed list of all sales quantity, total sales, total profits and forecast

profit at the below by product name for selected month.

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Figure 4.13: Select product name (sales by product)

Figure 4.14: Display report (sales by product)

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Figure 4.16: Display report (sales by month)

Figure 4.15: Select product name (sales by month)

54

Figure 4.18: Display report (profit by product)

Figure 4.17: Select product name (profit by product)

55

Figure 4.20: Display report (profit by month)

Figure 4.19: Select product name (profit by month)

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Figure 4.22: Display report (forecast sales (quantity) by product)

Figure 4.21: Select product name (forecast sales (quantity) by product)

57

Figure 4.24: Display report (forecast profit by product)

Figure 4.23: Select product name (forecast profit by product)

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4.4.2 Customer

4.4.2.1 Home

This module only can be access by customer. This module will show main menu

page that not required customer to login into the system to review the product as shown in

Figure 4.25. The main menu button is home, go shopping, about us, find us and sign in or

create an account. Figure 4.26 show that customer need to login their account to the

system to make an order. If click on stroller icon will lead to figure 4.27.

Figure 4.25: Home (before login)

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Figure 4.26: Product display (before login)

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4.4.2.2 Customer Registration

Figure 4.27 show form registration for new customer. Customer need to complete

their personal details before register on the system. Registration form required first name, last

name, email and password. After they make account registration, then they can login to the

system and make an order.

Figure 4.27: Customer registration

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4.4.2.3 Customer Login

Figure 4.28 show login form for customer to access their module. Only registered

customer can access it and make an order. Customer need to insert username and their

password as an authentication and verification.

Figure 4.28: Customer login

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4.4.2.4 Customer Main Menu

This interface will be display after customer has login into the system. This module

allow customer make an order, make a payment, view their order and order status as shown

on Figure 4.29. Click start in figure 4.29 will lead you to figure 4.30. It will show product

category, which is playtime, bathing, feeding, travel and apparel. If click playtime button

product category will lead you to figure 4.31.

Figure 4.29: Customer home

Figure 4.30: Customer home (product category)

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4.4.2.5 Virtual Reality Store Main Menu

This interface will be display after customer click playtime button product category.

Figure 4.31 show playtime product section in Anakku baby store. The main button is info,

sound, store section choice and plan. Click info button will display the info in figure 4.32,

sound button to mute and unmute sound and click plan button will display figure 3.33. All

of the product available to click for order. As an example click nasal aspirator product in

Figure 4.34.

Figure 4.31: Virtual Reality Store Main Menu

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Figure 4.32: Virtual Reality Store Main Menu (info)

Figure 4.33: Virtual Reality Store Main Menu (plan)

65

Figure 4.34: Virtual Reality Store Main Menu (click product)

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4.4.2.6 Product order

This page will display selected product information in figure 4.34 and customer can

make an order in this page. Customer need to insert quantity of selected product and click

on “Add to Cart” button as shown on figure 4.35. They need to click on button “My cart”

on the top page to view their order. The item order will be listed on shopping cart as shown

on figure 4.36. Customer can continue select crisp by click “Continue shopping?” and if

has complete, click on button “Checkout”. The order will be listed on order list.

Figure 4.35: Add to cart

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4.4.2.7 Shopping cart

This page will display item order list on shopping cart as shown on figure 4.36.

Customer can continue order product by click “Continue shopping?” and if has complete,

click on button “Checkout”. The order will be listed on order list. In this process, there are

4 main button which is My Cart, Shipping Address, Payment and Status. Click “Checkout”

will lead to figure 3.7.

Figure 4.36: My cart

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4.4.2.8 Shipping address

This page will display shipping address form which is includes first name, last

name, address, city, country, province, postal code and phone number. Click “Next” will

lead to figure 3.8.

Figure 4.37: Shipping address (form)

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4.4.2.9 Payment

This page will display payment page that need customer to upload payment receipt

as a proof payment. Then will be check by admin. Click confirm will lead you to figure

3.9.

Figure 4.38: Payment

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4.4.2.10 Order Status

This page will display order status page and tracking number. Customer can

continue shopping by click on “Continue Shopping” button.

Figure 4.39: Order status

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4.4.2.11 Search Product

This page will allow customer to search for any product. Click “Search” will show

the list of search result.

Figure 4.40: Search product

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4.5 Chapter Summary

This chapter ensures that the system is developed according to the requirement, the

framework (system modelling) and design. Each module involves in Profit Prediction for

Baby Product Based on Consumers’ Purchasing Behavior is described in the data flow. The

system developed must follow closely the DFD and ERD designed in the earlier phases.

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CHAPTER 5

TESTING AND RESULT

5.1 Introduction

In order to ensure the system developed according to the functional requirement

state by the user and fulfilled the main objective, the system testing is done throughout the

implementation process. Testing is conducted to uncover error that is inadvertently during

the coding phase. This is constructed by testing individual program component to get the

intended result from the system developed. The process involve in the system testing are

unit testing and environmental testing. This chapter outlines the steps necessary to verify if

the system is correctly done and performs to the required specifications. The system is also

being tested using two widely test methods, which is are white box testing and black box

testing.

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5.2 Testing Analysis

The system is tested using two techniques of software testing which are a black box

testing and white box testing after the complete implementation. The testing is must in order

to get the respective input and output for each process involve in this system.

5.2.1 Black Box Testing

The module involves in this testing are:

1) Login

2) Manage Product

3) Customer Order

5.2.2 White Box Testing

The module involves in this testing is Forecast sales and profit.

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5.3 Test Cases

A test case is a set of conditions or variables under which a tester will determine

whether a system under test satisfies requirements or works correctly. The process of

developing test cases also helps find the problems in the requirement or design of an

application. The table below shows the test cases for several processes of Profit Prediction

for Baby Products Based on Consumers’ Purchasing Behavior.

5.3.1 Login

Step Procedure Expected Result Pass / Fail

1 Go to login page

Preview page loaded Pass

2 Enter the following

details

Username:

syaza@gmail.com

Password: syaza124

Pass

3 Click login button Message “Wrong email and

password!”

Pass

4 Re-enter the correct

username and

password

Login page Pass

Table 5.1: Test Case Fail Login

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Step Procedure Expected Result Pass / Fail

1 Go to login page

Preview page loaded Pass

2 Enter the following

details

Username:

syaza@gmail.com

Password: syaza124

Pass

3 Click login button

Login successful

Display Admin Module Pass

Step Procedure Expected Result Pass / Fail

1 Go to login page

Preview page loaded Pass

2 Enter the following

details

Username:

syaza@gmail.com

Password: syaza124

Pass

3 Click login button

Login successful

Display Customer Module Pass

Table 5.2: Test Case Admin Success Login

Table 5.3: Test Case Customer Success Login

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5.3.2 Manage Product

Step Procedure Expected Result Pass / Fail

1 Click “Add Product”

Form to register new product

Pass

2 Enter the new

product details

Pass

3 Click “Save” button

Display fail or success

message

Pass

Step Procedure Expected Result Pass / Fail

1 Click “Update

Product”

Display list of crisp registered

Pass

2 Choose product to

be update and click

button “Update”

Form update product details Pass

3 Enter new updated

product details

Pass

4 Click “Save” button

Display fail or success

message

Pass

Step Procedure Expected Result Pass / Fail

1 Click “Delete

Product”

Display list of product Pass

2 Choose product to

delete and click

button “Delete”

Display fail or success

message

Pass

Table 5.4: Test Case Add Product

Table 5.5: Test Case Update Product

Table 5.6: Test Case Delete Product

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5.3.3 Manage Order

Step Procedure Expected Result Pass / Fail

1 Click on any

product on

Customer module.

Display product information Pass

2 Enter quantity and

click button “Add

to Cart”.

Pass

3 Click “My Cart”

Display list of customer

order

Pass

4 Click “Checkout”

button

Display fail or success

message

Pass

Table 5.7: Test Case Manage Order

79

5.3.4 Forecast

Step Procedure Expected Result Pass / Fail

1 Click on “Forecast

Sales” on Admin

module.

Display list of product sales

for previous 5 months.

Display predicted quantity to

produce on the next month

Pass

Step Procedure Expected Result Pass / Fail

1 Click on “Forecast

Profit” on Admin

module.

Display list of product sales

profit for previous 5 months.

Display predicted profit on

the next month.

Pass

5.3 Chapter Summary

The implementation of coding and testing of the system is discussed in this chapter.

For creating the robust and well function system, all test cases must be tested carefully to

ensure the intended result. The main process and the flow of module are discussed. The

system functionally had been tested and evaluated.

Table 5.8: Test Case Forecast Sales

Table 5.9: Test Case Forecast Profit

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CHAPTER 6

RESULT AND CONCLUSION

6.1 Introduction

In this chapter, the finding in the project is discussed and concluded. The content

of this chapter is summarized of the result or the project contribution, the limitation of

this project and some suggestion for the future work.

6.2 Project Contribution

Profit Prediction for Baby Products Based on Consumers’ Purchasing Behavior is

developed to help company to make a prediction and analysis on the upcoming stock

production. This system has been achieved the objectives and all scopes had been

fulfilled.

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The achievement of this project is outline below:

The systematic order system for customer to make product order.

This system will store past sales report that useful for company as reference.

It helps company in make a prediction on the future sales and profit.

6.3 Result Discussion

Generally, this project has been carried out and follow the objective that has been

stated in Chapter 1. The system helps the customer to make an order. This system also

assists the company to make analysis for future sales and help company to make a good

business planning based on forecast result. This project providing the function to predict

stock production that can help reducing the excessive production using Least Square

Method Techniques.

6.4 Project Constraints and Limitation

There are several problems and limitation while developing this project. These are

the problems and limitations in conducting the study are:

Lack of reference on existing system.

This system only allow ordering and purchasing but does not include stock

inventory.

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6.5 Future Work

There are few suggestions that can be made to upgrade the system to be more efficient in

future work. The suggestions are as below:

Able to view the profit for the next year.

Available on mobile application.

6.6 Conclusion

Profit Prediction for Baby Products Based on Consumers’ Purchasing Behavior

focus on facilitate customers to make reservations and facilitate management to manage

baby product stocks effectively. The suitable approach is implemented in this system which

is Least Square Method which is a way to generate profit forecasts in the future. Forecasting

sales and profits is essential to planning for business success. The result for this project is

enable to estimate future business performance based on the actual profits from prior

periods and enables the baby shop owner to modify the operation of the business on a timely

basis. This system only focus on calculation prediction for next month. So, for the future

work will add calculation prediction for the next year. This system also displaying the

analysis with graph. So user will see the flow of their sale and profit by month. So, this

project allows the business to avoid losses or major financial problems should some future

results from operations not conform with reasonable expectations.

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REFERENCES

[1] CLAUDIMAR PEREIRA DA VEIGA, C. R. (2014). Demand forecasting in food

retail: a comparison between the Holt-Winters and ARIMA models. WSEAS

TRANSACTIONS on BUSINESS and ECONOMICS.

[2] Kumar, R and Mahto, D 2013, ‘A case study: Application of Proper

Forecasting Technique in Juice Production’, Global Journal of Researches in

Engineering, vol. 13, no. 4, pp. 1-6.

[3] Sonia Akhter**, M. A. (September 2016). Selection of a Forecasting Technique for

Beverage Production: A Case Study. World Journal of Social Sciences, 148 – 159.

[4] Akhter, S., Rahman, M. A., Koushik, M. R. P., & Hossain, M. M. (2016). Selection of

a Forecasting Technique for Beverage Production: A Case Study. World, 6(3), 148-159.

[5] Barbosa, N de P, Christo, E da S and Costa, KA 2015, ‘Demand Forecasting for

Production Planning in a Food Company’, ARPN Journal of Engineering and Applied

Sciences, vol. 10, no. 16, pp. 7137-7141.

[6] Medhora, N. (n.d.). Kopywriting Kourse. Retrieved from Gross Profit Calculator:

https://kopywritingkourse.com/gross-profit-calculator/

[7] Bizmove Small Business Guides. (n.d.). Retrieved from Sales and Profit Forecasting

Methods: https://www.bizmove.com/finance/m3b4.htm

[8] smallbusiness.chron.com. (n.d.). Retrieved from How to Calculate Using the Gross

Profit Method: https://smallbusiness.chron.com/calculate-using-gross-profit-method-

10591.html

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Appendix 1

Task

Week

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

1.0 Project Introduction Phase

1.1 Title Proposal

1.2 Proposal Writing (Introduction)

1.2.1 Background

1.2.2 Problem statement

1.2.1 Objectives

1.2.3 Scope

1.2.4 Limitation of work

1.2.5 Expected results

1.2.6 Activities and Milestones

1.2.7 Submission and Correction

2.0 Literature Review

2.1 Related Technique

2.2 System Technique

2.3 Submission and Correction

3.0 Design and Specification Phase

3.1 Project Methodology

3.2 Software and Hardware

3.3 Framework

3.4 Context Diagram

3.5 Dataflow Diagram

3.6 Entity Relationship Diagram

3.7 Data Dictionary

3.8 Submission and Correction