Daniel Pazmiño (PhD student)!David Karoly (Supervisor)!

Alexandre Pezza (Co-supervisor)!

Forecasting Southern Hemisphere Seasonal Bushfire Potential

Taken from: http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/02/bushfires_in_victoria_australi.html

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2nd year PhD Project Presentation

• Key confirmation results

• 2nd year progress review

• Future work planned

Key confirmation results

1000 hPa air temperature

1000 hPa relative humidity

300 hPa zonal wind

Composites for seasonal (Sep-Oct-Nov) anomalies in Victoria (59 bushfire seasons considered in the period 1900–2010)

Data source: 20th Century Reanalysis Project and PeriAUS database

Key confirmation results

Data source: Daily FFDI data obtained from Lucas (2010)

McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI)

FFDI = f(T, Rhum, U, DF)

2nd year PhD Project Presentation

• Key confirmation results

• 2nd year progress review

• Future work planned

Bushfire versus heatwaves: 99 years of contrast in Victoria, Australia (1st research paper)

1000 hPa air temperature 300 hPa zonal wind

Victorian Seasonal Bushfire Index (VSBI)

T: 1000 hPa air temperatureRhum: 1000 hPa relative humidityUwnd: 300 hPa zonal wind

VSBI vs Bushfire events in Victoria, Australia for the period 1900-2010

Linear correlations (r values) for VSBI for the period 1972-2010

BE: Bushfire events

Seasonal bushfire danger using original reanalysis data

Seasonal bushfire danger using bias-corrected reanalysis data

Bias-correction of reanalysis data for FFDI variables

Additive linear scaling

Multiplicative linear scaling

At least 9,000 Ha destroyed by bushfires in Ecuador in 2012 summer season

Source: Ministry of Environment of Ecuador Photo taken from: http://www.larepublica.ec

Bushfire Danger in Ecuador: Variability

and southern hemisphere

circulation links

Seminar presentation in Ecuador, 14th December of 2014

2nd year PhD Project Presentation

• Key confirmation results

• 2nd year progress review

• Future work planned

Future work planned

• Confirmation of anomalies composites using Victorian Government’s bushfire database.

Short term Long term

• Writing the thesis!!!

• Bias correction of reanalysis data prior 1972, and calculation of seasonal FFDI for Victoria and Ecuador.

• 20th century investigation of relationship between VSBI, seasonal FFDI, climate modes of variability and bushfire events.

• Projection of seasonal bushfire potential in the 21st

century using CIMIP5 models for Victoria and Ecuador.

Stage reached in relation to the overall !research plan (compared to updated plan)!

2nd year PhD Project Presentation

• Key confirmation results

• 2nd year progress review

• Future work planned