progress report march 2010- march 2011. biodiversity scenarios a synthesis and assessment of...
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PROGRESS REPORT
March 2010- March 2011
Biodiversity ScenariosA synthesis and assessment of projections of 21st century changes in biodiversity and associated ecosystem services based on an analysis of a broad range of existing models, experiments and observations
Leadley et al. 2010 CBD TS50 http://gbo3.cbd.int,
Pereira, Leadley et al. 2010 Science
Lead Authors
Paul Leadley, Université Paris-Sud 11, FranceDIVERISITAS bioDISCOVERY co-chair
Henrique Miguel Pereira, Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal
Rob Alkemade, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Netherlands
Vânia Proença , Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal
Jörn Scharlemann, UNEP-WCMC, UKMatt Walpole, UNEP-WCMC, UK
Contributing Authors
John Agard, The University of The West Indies, Trinidad and Tobago
Miguel Araújo, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, SpainAndrew Balmford, University of Cambridge, UKPatricia Balvanera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de
México, Mexico Oonsie Biggs, Stockholm University, SwedenLaurent Bopp, Institute Pierre Simon Laplace, FranceWilliam Cheung, University of British Columbia, CanadaPhilippe Ciais, Laboratory for Climate Sciences and the
Environment, FranceDavid Cooper, CBD Secretariat, CanadaJoanna C. Ellison, University of Tasmania, AustraliaJuan Fernandez, Universite Paris-Sud XI, FranceEric Gilman, Global Biodiversity Information Facility
Secretariat, Denmark Sylvie Guenette, University of British Columbia, CanadaBernard Hugueny, Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle,
France George Hurtt, University of New Hampshire Henry P. Huntington, USAMichael Jennings, University of Idaho, USA
Fabien Leprieur, Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle, France Corinne Le Quéré, University of East Anglia, UKGeorgina Mace, Imperial College, UK Cheikh Mbow, Université Cheikh Anta Diop, Senegal Kieran Mooney, CBD SecretariatAude Neuville, European Commission, Belgium Thierry Oberdorf, Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle, FranceCarmen Revenga, The Nature Conservancy, SpainJames C. Robertson, The Nature Conservancy, SpainPatricia Rodrigues, Universidade de Lisboa, PortugalJuan Carlos Rocha Gordo, Stockholm University, SwedenHisashi Sato, Japan Agency Marine Earth Science & Technology, Japan Bob Scholes, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, South Africa Mark Stafford-Smith, CSIRO, AustraliaUssif Rashid Sumaila, University of British Columbia, CanadaPablo A. Tedescco, Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle, France
Feb 2010 - Trondheim Conference on Biodiversity, an encounter between CBD delegates & scientists. Trondheim, Norway.
March 2010 - Pre-COP 10 meeting of the CBD. Nagoya, Japan.
May 2010 - Official launch of the Global Biodiversity Outlook 3 (GBO3) Nairobi, Kenya.
October 2010 - • Presentation of GBO3• Presentation to launch the "Rio Conventions' Ecosystems and Climate Change Pavilion”…
T Lovejoy, Dir. Heinz Center
A Steiner, Exec. Dir. UNEP
M Silva, Brazilian Minister of Environment
• EU-COST “HARMBIO” project funded – COST action to harmonize data and scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services – Led by J. Scharlemann UNEP/WCMC
• “Planet under Pressure”, London 2012 - Tipping-points session proposal M. Williams (Global Environment Facility), A. Duraiappah (IHDP), P. Leadley (DIVERSITAS)
• Educational package for tipping-points – P. Leadley
• Paper on tipping-points in preparation
• Collaboration with German research community on tipping-points follow-up…
GBO3 Follow-up
TRY/BBS workshop
March 25-29, 2011, Paris
TRY: Refining Plant Functional Classifications for Earth System Modelling (www.try-db.org)
BBS: Advanced prediction of Biome Boundary Shifts in regional and global dynamic vegetation models
Co-organizers: Sandra Dìaz, George Hurtt, Jens Kattge, Sandra Lavorel, Paul Leadley, Heike Lischke, Colin Prentice, Hisashi Sato, Christian Wirth
DIVERSITAS, IGBP, MPI-Jena, GIS-Climat, French FRB, UK QUEST
Linking global change impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services at regional and global scales
Both “biodiversity” (e.g., GBO3, TEEB) and “biogeochemical” (e.g., IPCC) assessments are focusing on functional types / habitat changes / vegetation type
changes as the key to understanding global change impacts
Species
Ecosystem Function / Servicesand economic valuation
Functional Groups / Traits
GBO3, TEEB, IPCC, MA, etc.
GBO2 (dose-response)MA (species-area)etc.
Habitats / Vegetation TypeGlobal change
TRY: towards a unified global database of plant traits - DIVERSITAS, IGBP, MPI-Jena, GIS-Climat, French FRB, UK QUEST (Kattge et al. 2011 Global Change Biology)
All plants
Trees
Needle-leaved evergreen trees
Scots pine
Leaf Nitrogen ContentSpecific Leaf Area
• BBS Migration project – H. Sato, H. Lischke, P. Leadley
• BBS Fire project – D. Bachelet, D. Morton, P. Leadley
• Paper on BBS in preparation
• “Planet under Pressure”, London 2012 – “TRY” session proposal
• Push to get several “TRY” modeling projects ready for publication in 2011-2012
• Making links with other trait programs (TRAITNET, E. Garnier, etc.)
• Searching for additional funding (French Foundation for Research on Biodiversity, French ANR DIVGRASS project, …)
• And of course looking towards IPBES
TRY/BBS Follow-up
Building a strong support base in France
Programme Phare: Modélisation et scénarios de la biodiversité
‘Humboldt’ project
Workshop "Eco-evolutionary approaches to understanding and
predicting the response of species and ecosystems to climate change" –
August 2010, Kyushu, Japan – bioGENESIS & bioDISCOVERY
Next workshop planned in Montreal, 2012 (A. Gonzalez, funding?)
WorkshopNovel Models for Biodiversity and ES Scenarios
Brainstorming meetingJune 2011, Portugal
M. Araujo, P. Leadley, I. Chuine, W. Thuiller
Contributions to GEO-BON (C. Krug)
• Cornelia Krug has been renewed as the science officer for bioDISCOVERY.
• Urgent need to renew SC bioDISCOVERY - see nominations
• bioDISCOVERY “office” be hiring two post-docs for scientific and technical assitance part-time on bioDISCOVERY projects (TRY / BBS)
People
BBS - Key needs for improving regional and global vegetation models:
• “Biodiversity” - more plant functional types- trait-based modeling - adding variance to means, etc.
• Dispersal and establishment
• Disturbance regimes- Forestry- Grazing- Fire and fire control
• Mortality
• Validation
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Mega-Database TRYDIVERSITAS – IGBP - AIMES – GLP – QUEST– MPG
BiolFlorLEDA
CEDAR-CREEK
Glopnet
DIVERSUS
VISTA
FET
WoodDensity
BIOPOP
KewGardens
CORDOBASEKurokawa
Soussana
Lavorel
Shipley
Reich
GarnierCraine
Chave
Cornelissen
ZLTP
Higgins
ECOCRAFT
RAINFOR
ECOQUA
SID
BROT
Swaine
Fang
Wright
Penuelas
TRY
Chapin
currently2.2 million trait entries for
62.000 plant species
TRY
Modeling component of TRYCurrently >20 proposals to use data from the TRY database
JULESSitchPlant Physiology
SPITFIRESpessa et al.Fire Dynamics
aDGVMHiggins et al.Forest-Savanna Boundary
TRICYCLEvan Bodegom, Brovkin et al.Trait based PFTs
JSBACHZaehle, Kattge, Knorr, Wirth, Reick, Raddatz Plant water balance, Acclimation of PS and Respiration, C-N
ORCHIDEE-NZaehle, KattgeC-N Dynamics
ED-JULESFisher, Woodward, PrenticeBiome-shifts
ORCHIDEEViovy et al.Parameter Evaluation
Global Biodiversity Outlook 3:• Publication of the GBO3 Report & GBO3 Biodiversity Scenarios Technical report - 10 May 2010• Proposed “GBO3” side event - May 2010, CBD SBSTTA 14, Nairobi• Two papers on the GBO3 biodiversity scenarios findings are in preparation Workshop on "Evolutionary responses to global change" - August 2009, Japan – bioGENESIS / bioDISCOVERY.
Workshop on “Biodiversity Assessement Methods” – October 2010, Europe (tbc) Workshop on “Novel modeling approaches to predicting biodiversity response to global change” - 3rd or 4th quarter 2010, Spain.
Workshop - TRY/BBS follow-up - 4th quarter 2010, France. - PROJECT / PRODUCT ORIENTED – New important sponsor is the FRB (French Foundation for Biodiversity Research)
Etc…
Plans for 2010-2011
TRY Database
PlantTrait DB 1
PlantTrait DB 2
PlantTrait DB 3 Plant
Trait DB 1
PlantTrait DB 2
PlantTrait DB 3
AnimalTrait DB n
User
User
AncillaryDB n
FUTURE
PlantTrait DB 1
PlantTrait DB 2
PlantTrait DB 3
TRY Database Manager (MPI)Extraction, quality control, etc.
User QueryFree access dataLimited access data
NOW: TraitNet& “CNRS”Currently working on Semantic Web and Ontologies
Semantic Web(intelligent search engine)
Ontology “Filter”Concepts, Nomenclature, etc.
Global Trait Portal
NOW
Ecological Forecasting Program at NASA
Ecological Model Web
Preparing for iPBES – integrated projections of biodiversity response to global change
IndirectDrivers Economics, Technology, Politics, etc.
DirectDrivers
CO2 & Climate change + Hydrology
Land Freshwater Marine
Bio- diversity response
Land Freshwater Marine
Land use N input etc. Physical
change P input etc. etc.Fishing Nutrient input
Ecosystem response Ecosystem functions and services
DIVERSITAS Strategic Plan
bioGENESIS
bioDISCOVERY
ecoSERVICES
bioSUSTAINABILITY
Evolution, systematics, biodiv informatics
Assessment, observation and modeling
BD <-> EF EF<->ES
BD <-> ES <-> HWB <-> Drivers
DIVERSITAS “Specificity” Among ESSP programs