progress toward global energy transitions: u.s. launch of ... · pv and bioenergy: only renewables...

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

Progress toward Global Energy Transitions: U.S. Launch of IEA’s Hydrogen and Nuclear ReportsDave Turk, Head of Strategic Initiatives Office, International Energy AgencyCSIS, 16 July 2019


2018 – a remarkable year for energy

Global energy demand last year grew by 2.3%, the fastest pace this decade, an exceptional performance driven by a robust global economy, weather conditions and moderate energy prices

Annual change in global primary energy demand, 2011-18

100

200

300

400

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mtoe

CoalOil

Gas

Nuclear

Renewables


World energy efficiency improvements are slowing

2018 saw a worrying slowdown in efficiency, despite IEA analysis showing huge untapped potential in all sectors

Average annual change in primary energy intensity, 2010-18

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018


Energy-related CO2 emissions hit a record high in 2018

The need to accelerate clean energy transitions is underscored by CO2 emissions reaching a record high in 2018

Annual change in global energy-related CO2 emissions

- 200

0

200

400

600

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

MtCO2


Where do we need to go? And how do we get there?

There is no single solution to our energy challenges: while efficiency & renewables account for the bulk of abatement, a host of other technologies including nuclear, CCUS, hydrogen & storage are also required

15

20

25

30

35

40

2010 2020 2030 2040

Gt C

O2-

eq

Efficiency

Renewables

NuclearCCUSFuel-SwitchingOther

New Policies Scenario

Sustainable Development Scenario


Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2019

Power Renewable power

Solar PV

Onshore wind

Offshore wind

Hydropower

Bioenergy

Geothermal

CSP

Ocean

Nuclear power

Gas-fired power

Coal-fired power

CCUS in power

Fuel supply Methane emissions from oil and gas

Flaring emissions

Industry Chemicals Iron and steel Cement Pulp and paper Aluminium CCUS in industry & transformation

Transport Electric vehicles Fuel economy Trucks & buses Transport biofuels Aviation Shipping Rail

Buildings Building envelopes Heating Heat pumps Cooling Lighting Appliances & equipment Data centres and networks

Energy storage Hydrogen

Smart grids Demand response

Energy integration


PV and bioenergy: only renewables fully “on track”

Despite PV’s stalling capacity expansion, prospects are optimistic for continuous growth;bioenergy’s tracking status is improved due to positive policy developments in China and India

Renewable electricity generation by technology

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

TWh

Ocean

CSP

Geothermal

Bioenergy

Solar PV

Offshore wind

Onshore wind

Hydropower

Historical Forecast SDS


Overall renewables growth hinges on solar PV

The main reason behind the lack of acceleration in PV’s growth was China’s policy change to control the pace of expansion, tackle subsidy cost and curtailment challenges and ultimately achieve a more sustainable PV growth

Global net renewable capacity additions

0

25

50

75

100

125

Solar PV Wind Hydro Bioenergy

GW

2015 2016 2017 2018


A significant scale-up of CCUS efforts will be required globally

With only 2 large scale projects operating today, CCUS remains well off track to reach SDS level of 350 MtCO2 per year

CCUS in power

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Mt C

O2

Existing capacity Current developments SDS


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 2025 2030

mill

ion

cars Others

United StatesEuropeChina

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 2025 2030

mill

ion

cars Others

United StatesEuropeChina

SDS

2018 was another record-breaking year for global electric car sales

The global electric car stock surpassed 5 million in 2018, of which nearly two-thirds are battery electric vehicles

Global electric car stock

BEV = battery electric vehiclePHEV = plug-in hybrid electric vehicle

Electric vehicles


Energy storage is again on track with the transition – but depends heavily on policy support

New markets have emerged quickly (SE Asia, South Africa) when policy became more favourable; continued growth in behind-the-meter storage depends on market frameworks

Annual battery storage installations

0

1

2

3

4

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Stor

age

capa

city

(GW

)

Other

China

Japan

Korea

US 0

1

2

3

4

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Behindthe Meter

Grid-scale

Energy storage


Global public R&D investment in clean energy needs to rise further

Public R&D in clean energy increased to USD 22 billion, but amounts to just 0.1% of total government spending

Total public spending on low-carbon energy R&D

0

5

10

15

20

25

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

USD

(201

8) b

illio

n

0

5

10

15

20

25

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

USD

(201

8) b

illio

n

Rest of World

Canada

China

Japan

Europe

US


A record year for venture capital investment in clean energy

Early-stage VC investment in energy tech start-ups reached USD 6.9 billion, mostly focused on low-carbon (especially transport)

Global venture capital investment in energy technology companies

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Avg.2007-11

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

USD

(201

8) b

illio

n Other energy

Other clean energy

Energy efficiency

Other renewables

Bioenergy

Solar

Transport


The new geography of energy…

In 2000, more than 40% of global demand was in Europe & North America and some 20% in developing economies in Asia. By 2040, this situation is completely reversed

Energy demand

2000

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

United States

European Union

China

Africa

India

Southeast Asia

Middle East

Mtoe

2001

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

United States

European Union

China

Africa

India

Southeast Asia

Middle East

Mtoe

2002

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

United States

European Union

China

Africa

India

Southeast Asia

Middle East

Mtoe

2003

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

United States

European Union

China

Africa

India

Southeast Asia

Middle East

Mtoe

2004

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

United States

European Union

China

Africa

India

Southeast Asia

Middle East

Mtoe

2005

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

United States

European Union

China

Africa

India

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2006

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

United States

China

European Union

Africa

India

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2007

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

United States

China

European Union

Africa

India

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2008

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

United States

China

European Union

Africa

India

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2009

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

Africa

India

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2010

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2011

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2012

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2013

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2014

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2015

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2016

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2017

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2018

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2019

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2020

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2021

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2022

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2023

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2024

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2025

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2026

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2027

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2028

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2029

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

European Union

India

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2030

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

India

European Union

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2031

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

India

European Union

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2032

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

India

European Union

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2033

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

India

European Union

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2034

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

India

European Union

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2035

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

India

European Union

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2036

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

India

European Union

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2037

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

India

European Union

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2038

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

India

European Union

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2039

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

India

European Union

Africa

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2040

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

India

Africa

European Union

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe

2040

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

United States

India

Africa

European Union

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Mtoe


Nuclear Power in a Clean Energy System


Low-carbon electricity generation worldwide by source, 2018Low-carbon electricity generation in advanced economies by source, 2018

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

Nuclear Hydro Wind Bioenergy Solar PV

TWh

Nuclear is a leading source of clean electricity today

Nuclear power provided 10% of electricity supply worldwide in 2018, while in advanced economies, it has been the largest clean source of electricity for over 30 years


Nuclear power has avoided CO2 emissions for 50 years

Without nuclear power, CO2 emissions from electricity generation would have been almost 20% higher over the period

Cumulative CO2 emissions avoided by nuclear power worldwide, 1971-2018

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1971 1980 1990 2000 2010 2018

Gt C

O2 Developing economies

Other advanced economiesCanadaKoreaJapanUnited StatesEuropean Union


Share of non-fossil electricity is same now as it was 20 years ago…

The decline in nuclear power's share in electricity generation has entirely offset the growth in share of renewables since late 1990s

Share of energy sources in global electricity generation

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2018

Others

Oil

Natural gas

Coal

Renewables

Nuclear


0

10

20

30

40

50

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Ave

rage

age

(yea

rs)

Nuclear power capacity (GW)

The nuclear fleet is ageing

Many nuclear power plants in advanced economies are facing retirement as they approach the end of their original 40-year design lifetime.

Age profile of nuclear power capacity in selected regions

United States Canada European Union Japan India Korea China


Nuclear could face a steep decline in advanced economies

Without additional lifetime extensions or new projects, nuclear capacity in advanced economies would decline by two-thirds by 2040.

Nuclear power capacity (operational) in advanced economies in the Nuclear Fade Case, 2018-2040

50

100

150

200

250

300

2018 2025 2030 2035 2040

GW

Other advanced economies

Japan

Canada

United States

European Union


Lower nuclear raises CO2 emissions and supply costs

Lower nuclear raises fossil fuel use and power sector CO2 emissions by 5% to 2040,raising investment needs by close to $600 billion to 2040 and supply costs to consumers

Change in key indicator in advanced economies in the Nuclear Fade Case under current policies, 2019-2040

400

800

1 200

1 600

Fuel use

Mto

e

Coal Gas

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

CO2 emissions

Mt

Power plants

T&D

100

200

300

400

Investment

Billio

n US

D (2

017)

10

20

30

40

50

Total electricity supply costs

Billio

n US

D p

er y

ear (

2017

)


Nuclear lifetime extensions provide cheap clean electricity

Nuclear lifetime extensions are cost-competitive with new solar and wind, and provide a dispatchable source of clean electricity

Levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) in the United States by technology in 2018

0

50

100

150

200

New Lifetimeextension

Solar PV Windonshore

WindOffshore

Coal supercritical

Gas combined

cycleNuclear Renewables Fossil fuels

USD

per

MW

h

Levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) in the European Union by technology in 2018Levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) in Japan by technology in 2018


Policy recommendations for countries pursuing nuclear power

Ensure a sound framework for lifetime extensions:

• Value the clean nature of nuclear power and contributions to electricity security

• Clarify safety requirements for longer life and more flexible operations

Support new construction:

• Establish appropriate frameworks to reduce financial risks

• Maintain technical competencies related to nuclear power

• Pursue research & development of new technologies (e.g. small modular reactors)


The Future of Hydrogen


Hydrogen – A common element of our energy future ?

• Momentum currently behind hydrogen is unprecedented, with more and more policies, projects and plans by governments & companies in all parts of the world

• Hydrogen can help overcome many difficult energy challenges

Integrate more renewables, including by enhancing storage options & tapping their full potential

Decarbonise hard-to-abate sectors – steel, chemicals, trucks, ships & planes

Enhance energy security by diversifying the fuel mix & providing flexibility to balance grids

• But there are challenges: costs need to fall; infrastructure needs to be developed; cleaner hydrogen is needed; and regulatory barriers persist


Hydrogen is already part of the energy mix

Dedicated hydrogen production is concentrated in very few sectors today, and virtually all of it is produced using fossil fuels, as a result of favourable economics

0

20

40

60

80

2018

Mt/

yr

Hydrogen production

Other

Refining

Chemicals

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

2018

Mt/

yr

CO2

Gas

Oil

Coal

0

2

4

6

8

Natural gas Natural gasw/CCUS

Coal Renewables

USD

/kg

Hydrogen production costs, 2018


Hydrogen production with CO2 capture is coming online

Low-carbon hydrogen from fossil fuels is produced at commercial scale today, with more plants planned. It is an opportunity to reduce emissions from refining and industry

OperationalPlanned

Facilities with hydrogen production and CCUS


Global electrolyser capacity additions and average unit size

Electrolyser capacity additions and their average sizes have been growing rapidly in recent years, providing cost reductions from economies of scale and learning effects

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015-19

Aver

age

proj

ect s

ize (M

W)

MW

Alkaline

Proton exchangemembrane

Average project size(right axis)


Renewables hydrogen costs are set to decline

The declining costs of solar PV and wind could make them a low-cost source for hydrogen production in regions with favourable resource conditions

USD/kgH2Long-term hydrogen production costs from solar & wind systems


The challenge to 2030: expand hydrogen beyond existing applications

Dependable demand from current industrial applications can boost clean hydrogen production; policies & industry targets suggest increasing use in other sectors, but ambition needs to increase

Growth in hydrogen use based on announced policies, 2018-2030

New uses

BuildingsTrucksCarsOther

Growth to 2030, 24 Mt

Chemicals

Refining

Steel

New uses


Four key opportunities for scaling up hydrogen to 2030

progress toward global energy transitions: u.s. launch of ... · pv and bioenergy: only renewables...

Documents