Progressing the GCOS Implementation Plan

Paul Mason

GCOS Steering Committee

GCOS Strategy

Working with experts and partners to help plan and guide the

Implementation of Climate Observing Systems that meet needs for

climate information.

Engaging agents for action and for policy

• The GCOS Sponsors and their international bodies.

• UNFCCC / COP / SBSTA

• Other intergovernmental bodies, GEO, CEOS, etc, Partners, and

national bodies

Developing Strategies for Resource Mobilisation

• Voluntary Donor Fund - GCOS cooperation mechanism

Some GCOS Milestones

GCOS 2nd Adequacy Report in Support of the UNFCCC (2003): identified gaps and deficiencies in observing systems for climate

GCOS Implementation Plan in Support of the UNFCCC (2004) : the roadmap for the global climate observing system in the next 5-10 years (in situ, space-based, models, institutions, agents)

September 2006: Publication of GCOS-107 “Systematic Observation Requirements for Satellite-based Products for Climate” (‘Satellite Supplement’ to GCOS IP)

October/November 2006: Publication by Space Agencies (CEOS): “Satellite Observation of the Climate System”; as a response to space component of GCOS IP

Adoption by UNFCCC (2007) of revised national systematic observation reporting guide lines – matching the GCOS IP

SBSTA 23 Montreal

Under conclusions relating to the GCOS IP

“SBSTA invited the GCOS secretariat to provide a comprehensive report at its thirtieth session (June 2009), on progress with the GCOS implementation plan, in addition to the regular reporting requested by the Conference of the Parties (COP) in decision 5/CP.10”.

2009 IP Progress Report

Overview and Action by Action statement of progress

Acknowledging that progress is entirely due to national and partner organisation actions

Explicitly recognising some clear responses as examples but being careful to acknowledge the wider communities involved

Encouraging progress with the many actions that have made partial progress

Honest but diplomatic re some absence of action or changed GCOS goals

Not overly lengthy e.g. 30-40 pages with an executive summary aimed at UNFCCC, WMO etc delegates

2009 IP Progress Report

Writing strategy

Main drafting by Panel chairs and representatives of partner observing systems GOOS, GTOS, and WMO with the GCOS secretariat

Dealing with gaps in knowledge by email/telephone and use a few selected experts and the “IP update team” for initial review

Submitted to SBSTA while a draft and under open review

Finalised Summer 2009.

GCOS IP 2009 update

An update (not a rewrite) but making corrections, and providing extra detail where it is lacking

Incorporate much of satellite supplement (probably with very minor alteration)

More specific re Atmospheric composition, and Cryosphere but distinguishing between “continuous” global and decadal measurement needs, and supporting research observation needs

Aiming to include regional adaptation needs for ECV’s and raise needs for observations that will help link impacts to physical climate

Prepared with detailed partner consultation and open review.

GCOS IP 2009 update

Writing strategy Main drafting by Expert drafting team of about

30 meeting once, then by emails. Follow on with just chairs plus selected experts

and partners according to need Length of IP will increase but only to the extent

essential for new details Submitted to SBSTA while a draft and under

open review Finalised North Hemisphere Autumn 2009.

Time line for progress report and GCOS IP update

Action Time Period

1st meeting; Outline of Progress Report 30 June – 2 July 2008

Assessing progress against GIP Synthesis of Parties’ additional submissions

Ongoing; 15 Sep – Nov 2008

2nd meeting progress report drafting meeting 24-26 November 2008 (27 Nov: PM, JR)

Progress Report Draft v2.0 15 March 2009

Closure Meeting (Editor, Chair(s), Secretariat, experts) 2nd half of March 2009

Submission of Final Draft to UNFCCC Sec 15 April 2009

Final Draft Open Review 1 May – 20 June 2009/until after SBSTA-30

Finalize Report July 2009

Expert meeting on 2009 Update of the GIP 2-5 February 2009

Work on Draft at Progress Report Closure Meeting 2nd half of March 2009

IP update Closure meeting (Editor, Chair(s), Secretariat, experts)

May 2009

Draft v2.0 Open Review 1st June 2009 – 28th Aug

Finalize Report Oct 2009 or Feb 2010 depending on SBSTA wish to comment

Priorities

Needs to recognise many factors

Immediate science priorities

Benefits available from timely and “easy” actions

Vital long term time series

Maintaining a balance and recognising potential unexpected issues

Sydney review of IPCC FAR science and observation needs

4. Science Issues Underlined by the Workshop .......................................................................14 4.1 Abrupt Climate Change..............................................................................................................14 4.1.1 Ice Sheets ...........................................................................................................................14 4.1.2 Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) ..........................................................15 4.1.3 Methane Release................................................................................................................15 4.2 Detecting and Predicting Changes in the Hydrological Cycle, including Extremes ...................16 4.2.1 Improving Precipitation Observations, Products and Modelling .........................................16 4.2.2 Information on Components of the Hydrological Cycle (Soil moisture, Water vapour) ......17 4.2.3 Ocean Component..............................................................................................................18 4.2.4 Overarching Recommendations .........................................................................................19 4.3 Land Surface Processes, the Carbon Cycle and Biogeochemical Feedbacks..........................19 4.3.1 Carbon Cycle Models and Feedbacks................................................................................19 4.3.2 Carbon Cycle Observations ................................................................................................20 4.3.3 Urgent Needs in Carbon Cycle Research...........................................................................21 4.4 Aerosol-Cloud Interactions and Radiative Forcing.....................................................................21 4.4.1 Scientific Relevance and Importance..................................................................................21 4.4.2 Availability of New Data ......................................................................................................22 4.4.3 Model-model and Model-observation Comparisons ...........................................................22 4.4.4 Separation of Direct and Indirect Forcing ...........................................................................22 4.4.5 Regional Field Campaigns to Connect to Global Impacts ..................................................23 4.5 Ice-sheet Dynamics and Sea-level Rise ....................................................................................24 4.6 Ensuring the Observational Record for Climate.........................................................................26

Key climate change issues:Essential Climate Variables required

Key issues Key ECVs datasets

Hydrological cycle

Precipitation, soil moisture, water vapour, river discharge

Ice sheets Ice sheets, (solid) precipitation, sea level, sea-surface temp, surface temperature

Radiative forcing Earth Radiation Budget (including TSI), supported by cloud properties, aerosol properties, albedo

Carbon cycle CO2 (mean, fluxes), land cover, supported by fAPAR, fire disturbance, biomass, ocean colour

Regional impacts Precipitation, surface temperature, wind, supported by soil moisture, water vapour, sea-surface temp, sea ice, snow, glaciers, …

(identified by IPCC

4th Assess-

ment Lead Authors, GCOS-WCRP-IGBP

Workshop, Sydney,

Australia, October

2007

Sydney review and priorities

Comments firmly endorsed GCOS Essential Climate Variables as a priority list.

Recommended formally adding soil moisture

Implied more detail is needed for some ECV’s e.g. Ice sheets, cloud properties

The priority science area’s involve most if not all ECV’s

Conclusions

GCOS thanks CEOS members for their vigorous engagement of the GCOS Implementation plan: “The Climate Observations of the GEOSS Climate SBA”

GCOS would welcome agency staff being supported to participate in the preparation and the review of the Progress report and Implementation Plan update.