PROJECT SIMULATION AND

ADVANCED DATA CALCULATION

IN EXCEL

Dr. Chachrist Srisuwanrat

สาขาวชิาการบริหารงานก่อสร้าง คณะวศิวกรรมศาสตร์และสถาปัตยกรรมศาสตร์ มหาวทิยาลัยเทคโนโลยีราชมงคลตะวันออก วทิยาเขตอุเทนถวาย

Topics

• Project Risk Analysis using Simulation

• Determine project duration under uncertainty

• Plot density and cumulative distribution of

project duration

• Advanced Data Calculation and Formatting

• Construct “Two-way Table”

• Apply “Conditional Formatting”

2

Project Risk Analysis using Simulation

3

Probabilistic Activity Duration

4

CPM Calculation Table

5

Use constant duration to verify formula

6

Forward Calculation (ESD, EFD)

• ESDj = MAX( EFDi )

• ESDj = ESDj + DURj

7

Backward Calculation (LSD, LFD)

• LFDj = MIN(LSDk)

• LSDj = LFDj - DURj

8

Float Calculation (TF)

• TF = LFD – EFD

• Is Critical = if(TF = 0, 1, 0)

9

Apply probabilistic duration

• Copy code in “Duration Description” to Duration column

• Note: your numbers will be different because of

randomization. Press F9 to view change.

10

So what is the project duration???

Best case? Most likely? Worst case?

11

Use “Home->Fill->Series” to create

project-duration collection table

12

Use “What-If Analysis->Data Table” to

collect data (project duration)

13

Use “countif” function to count project

durations that are less than or equal to

14

Plot Graph

15

Construct Is-Critical Table for Activities

to collect probability of being critical

Collection 2,000 data points

Using

Fill->Series

What-If Analysis->Data Table

16

Use “Data->What-If Analysis->Data Table”

to collect 2,000 Is-Critical data points

17

CountIf to determine %Critical

18

Project Duration Analysis

19

Do you? • Believe A-B-E-G almost being critical half of the time?

• Know that A -D-G could be critical?

• Think all 3 paths could be critical at the same time?

• Worst duration could be TWICE of best duration?

20

BREAK

21

Advanced Data Calculation and Formatting

22

Advanced Data Calculation and Formatting

• Main calculation table

• Two-way Table

• Text function

• Conditional Formatting

23

Simple Example:

Land Cost Valuation and %Profit

• Land Size 3 rais with Cost 200,000 Baht/sq.w.

• FAR = 3

• NFA/GFA = 65%

• Construction Cost 17,000 Baht/sq.m.

• Mgmt & Mkt Cost 10% of (Land and Construction Cost)

• Sale Price 75,000 Baht/sq.m.

• What is the %Profit?

24

Calculation Table

25

Two-way Table Example:

Land Cost Valuation and %Profit

• Land Size 3 rais with Cost 180,000 to 220,000 Baht/sq.w.

• FAR = 3

• NFA/GFA = 65%

• Construction Cost 17,000 Baht/sq.m.

• Mgmt & Mkt Cost 10% of (Land and Construction Cost)

• Sale Price 60,000 to 90,000 Baht/sq.m.

• What is the %Profit for each combination

of Land Cost and Sale Price?

26

Construct Two-way Table

• Land Cost 180,000 to 220,000 Baht/sq.w.

• Sale Price 60,000 to 90,000 Baht/sq.m.

27

Data->What-if Analysis->Data Table

28

After click OK and Formatting cells

29

Add Desired %Profit and

Minimum Required %Profit

for Conditional Formatting Only

30

Home->Conditional Formatting->New

Rule (selecting J5)

31

Select J5->Format Painter

• Select J5

• Click Format Painter

• Crop cells in the table for formatting

32

Conditional Formatting

for Minimum Required %Profit

33

Select J5->Format Painter

34

Now you can also change and study

• NFA/GFA from 65% to 60%

• Construction Cost from 17,000 to 18,000 Baht/sq.m.

• Mgmt & Mkt Cost from 10% to 15%

35

Com

parison

36

BREAK

Two-way Table

Conditional Formatting

37

Simulated Table Example:

Expected, Max, Min %Profit

• Land Cost 190,000 to 210,000 Baht/sq.w.

• NFA/GFA = 60-70%

• Construction Cost 17,000-21,000 Baht/sq.m.

• Mgmt & Mkt Cost 10-15% of (Land and Construction Cost)

• Sale Price 60,000 to 90,000 Baht/sq.m.

• What is the %Profit:

• Expected

• Max

• Min

38

39

Data->What-If Analysis->Data Table

40

Data Table runs and collects 10,000 data

of %Profit

41

Let’s get Land Cost, NFA/GFA,

Construction Cost, Mgmt&Mkt Cost, and

Sale Price

42

Data->What-If Analysis->Data Table

43

ORIGINAL

Land Cost 190,000 to 210,000 Baht/sq.w.

NFA/GFA = 60-70%

Construction Cost 17,000 to 21,000 Baht/sq.m.

Mgmt & Mkt Cost 10 to 15% of (Land and Construction Cost)

Sale Price 60,000 to 90,000 Baht/sq.m.

DESIRED

Land Cost 190,000 to 200,000 Baht/sq.w.

NFA/GFA = 60-70%

Construction Cost 17,000 to 18,000 Baht/sq.m.

Mgmt & Mkt Cost 10-15% of (Land and Construction Cost)

Sale Price 70,000 to 85,000 Baht/sq.m.

44

Example: Very Difficult Problem

• A group of consultant agrees to manage and sell a land.

• This land has 18 rais.

• They will be spited to 4 to 6 plots.

• These 4-6 plots will be sold at

• Plot 1: 190,000 Baht/rais for 2 to 4 rais or not at all

• Plot 2: 200,000 Baht/rais for 2 to 3 rais or not at all

• Plot 3: 200,000 Baht/rais for 2 to 3

• Plot 4: 210,000 Baht/rais for 2 to 3

• Plot 5: 210,000 Baht/rais for 2 to 3

• Plot 6: 200,000 or 210,000 Baht/rais depending on remaining land

• In the end, all 18 rais must be sold.

(continue next page)

45

Continue

• Consulting Fee 2% of all sale

• Performance Fee 15% of land sold above 195,000 Baht/rais

• If using sale agents, consultant must pay them 1% of the

land price sold by agents

• Probabilities:

• Plot 1 has 50% chance to be sold at this price or not at all

• Plot 2 has 50% chance to be sold at this price or not at all

• If sold, size of land (2, 3, or 4 rais depending), which is sold, has equal

chance (uniform distribution)

• There is 50% chance using sale agents in each plot

46

Questions

• What is the expected, max, min of:

• Land price per sq.w.?

• Net owner revenue after all fees in Baht?

• Net consulting + performance fees Baht?

• Absolute commission calculated from consulting +

performance fees in percent?

• Sale agent commission in Baht?

47

Calculation Table with Random Formula

48

Simulated Table with 30,000 Replications

49

Summary

50

Density and Cumulative Function of

Consultant Revenue

51

Consultant Revenue upon

Number of rais (0-18 rais) sold by Sale Agents

52

WHAT IF???

The consultant have already sold

3 rais at 200,000 Baht/sq.w. via sale agents

Can he increase number of rais to be sold at

190,000 Baht/rai?

If Yes, how many?

53

THANK YOU

Dr. Chachrist Srisuwanrat

สาขาวชิาการบริหารงานก่อสร้าง คณะวศิวกรรมศาสตร์และสถาปัตยกรรมศาสตร์ มหาวทิยาลัยเทคโนโลยีราชมงคลตะวันออก วทิยาเขตอุเทนถวาย