PROJECT OBJECTIVE• To identify and evaluate a suite of management scenarios to address the Old Tampa Bay issues using integrated modeling tools

UNDERSTANDING & APPROACH

• Integrated set of models– response of key ecological

attributes and stressors to various scenarios

– spatial and temporal resolution – defensible, quantitative prediction– assessment of the net ecological

changes expected due to the scenarios examined

UNDERSTANDING & APPROACHTASK 1

Review & Select Preliminary Scenarios

TASK 2Data Review &

Adequacy Assessment

“Go-No Go” Decision

PointTASK 3

Integrated Model Plan

TASK 4Model Formulation &

TestingTASK 5

Model Applications

TASK 1

• Old Tampa Bay Management Action Scenario Report– Scenarios– Key ecological attributes

• OTB Working Group– Consensus building

TASK 2• Existing Information Summary Report–Data •Ambient WQ•Flows•Loadings•Seagrass

–Studies•PCEF•Safety Harbor Sediment Accumulation

TASK 2• Data Assessment Report–Data adequacy to predict ecological responses–Relative ranking of scenarios:•ecological benefits•constraints•project costs

Data Needs for ModelParameterization,

Calibration/Validation

• Much of the specific data/information needed in our data warehouse

• Issues with national databases• Data comparability• Resolution of data gaps • More detailed information in

the handout

How will proposed approach address wind-driven and

sediment dynamics?

• Shallow water wind-wave model integrated within hydrodynamic model

• Spatially/temporally varying wind field input

• Allowing computation of spatially and temporally varying bottom shear stress

• Linkage to water quality model and to optical model

How will proposed approach address both varying temporal and spatial scales? Implications of potential modifications on our proposed budget • Proposing a 10-year simulation• Hydrodynamic and water quality

models timesteps of 2-5 minutes – diel DO

• Proposed various spatial grids to address specific questions

• These considerations are built into our proposed budget

Hydrologic diversions, operational modifications, and causeway/bridge modifications

• Watershed modeling addresses operation of structures

• Sufficient data to address diversions directly

• Spatial resolution of model grids to resolve areas of impact

• Hydrodynamic and watershed models will pass changes to WQ model

Redirecting existing WWTP surface water discharges to

reuse or other beneficial uses• Grizzle-Figg Act - substantial

load reductions• 11% of OTB TN load from

WWTPs remains• Potential beneficial uses:

Northwest Regional Water Reclamation Facility Reuse System (Orange County, FL)

Implementation of non-structural and structural BMPs• Adjustment of EMCs for specific

land use types and jurisdictions• Development of a BMP layer• Feasibility analysis for regional

BMPs• Inclusion of LID practices for a

broader based plan

TASK 3• Integrated Model Plan– prioritized scenarios– modeling objectives– model selection– model calibration, validation, skill assessment, & uncertainty analysis– model output and analytical approaches

TASK 3• Modeling Strategy– A 10-year

hydrodynamic/water quality model run to capture wet, dry, and average years

– Able to examine variability in impacts of stressors on optical and habitat models

– Water quality model hindcast

Proposed Model Linkages(Question 4)

WatershedINTB

LIGHT & HABITATMODELS

Rainfall, Landuse,

BMPs, etc.

Water Quality/SFM

RCA

Hydrograph

Pollutograph

Hydro/SedTranECOMSE

D

Sal, T, H, Ux,y,z,Ex,y,z

Vsettling, Vdepo, Vresusp

Sal, T, H, Vshear

Chlorophyll, turbidity, DO, CDOM, Sediment %POC, H2S, etc.

Winds, Isolar,

Humidity, etc.

WWWTP,

Watmo, Isolar, etc.

TASK 3• Quality Assurance Plan– project organization (stakeholders, etc.,)– project tasks and schedule– project objectives– modeling and data quality objectives– model calibration, validation, and

skill assessment methods– model user’s manual– QC protocols

IntegratedNorthernTampa BayModel

ECOMSEDModelGrid