project on commodity exchange

7/30/2019 project on commodity exchange

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CHAPTER-I

INTRODUCTION OF THE STUDY

INTRODUCTION

This chapter deals with introduction about the study, statement of problem,

objectives of the study, methodology, period of the study, importance of the study and the

limitation of the study.

1.1 INTRODUCTION

The project title Price Fluctuation of selected commodities in MultiCommodity Exchange was brought under the main head of Derivatives Management.

Before introducing the project, it is necessary to know about the concept of derivatives and

price fluctuation. Because, it gives some basic knowledge about this project and it enriches

your interest in related to these concepts. Derivatives concept is very simple.

1.1.1Derivatives

A financial contract whose value depends on a risk factor, such as

The price of a bond, commodity, currency and share A yield or rate of interest An index of prices or yields Weather data, such as inches of rainfall or heating-degree-days, Insurance data, such as claims paid for a disastrous earthquake or flood, and the like.

Derivative is generally defined as it is a financial instrument whose value depends on

(or derives from) the value of other, more basis underlying assets, such as stock price, interest

rate, commodity price index of the stocks.


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Derivative products are classified as follows:

Forward contract Future contract Option Swap and Warrants

In these products, forward contract, swap and warrants are generally traded on Over-

The-Counter (OTC) Market and others are in Exchange-Traded Markets.

The type of traders involved in the derivatives market is classified on the basis of nature as

follows:

Hedgers, Speculators

1.1.1.1 Exchange-Traded Market

A derivative exchange is a market where individuals trade standardized contract that

has been defined by the exchange. Derivative exchanges have existed for a long time. In India,

there are twenty-two exchangetraded markets for stock, two market for derivative and three

exchange-traded markets for commodity. Among them, National Stock Exchange (NSE),

Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) are famous for stock and also for derivative and Multi

Commodity Exchange (MCX) and National commodity and Derivative Exchange (NCDEX) for

commodity.

1.1.2Commodity Market

Commodity markets are markets where raw or primary products are exchanged. Theseraw commodities are traded on regulated exchanges, in which they are bought and sold in

standardized contract. In practice, commodity market deals spot trading and future trading.

In commodity future contracts, the underlying asset of the future contract is a commodity.

Commodity may be bullion, energy, agricultural products or others. In India, three exchanges are


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dealing the commodity future contracts and their activities are controlled and guided by the SEBI

through Forward Market Commission.

1.1.3 Spot Market

A market in which commodities, such as grain, gold, crude oil, or RAM chips, are

bought and sold for cash and delivered immediately. It is also called cash market. Generally all

exchange-traded market and over-the-exchange markets deal cash transactions.

1.1.4 About project

The determination of price fluctuation of the commodities in Multi Commodity Market is

a very difficult and interested one. This study is related to the determination of the price

fluctuation of selected commodities, which is traded in commodity exchange on the basis of

monthly contract, for selected period of time. Hence, the tools used in the study are suitable for

each type of traders in the commodity market.

1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

In this project, the following problems are taken into consideration:

1.2.1 Price fluctuation

Generally, the future price of a commodity, which is listed on exchange, depends on the

spot price of that commodity. But, there is some deviation available in price due to demand and

supply and other factors. The arbitrage is the opportunity to make profit from that deviation.

Therefore, the arbitrage takes careful steps to calculate actual future price of commodity, which

is derived from the spot price of that commodity. It is very difficult for every arbitrage to

calculate the actual future price arrived.

1.2.2 Volatility

Volatility is the measure of uncertainty about the returns provided by the commodity. The

volatility of the commodity price can be defined as the standard deviation of the return provided

by the commodity in one year when return is expressed using continuous compounding.


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Volatility is a very important indicator to speculators to speculate, which is to make profit from

price fluctuations. But, it is not possible that every speculator estimates the volatility of

variables.

1.3 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

The objectives of the study are as follows:

To find actual price fluctuation of selected commodity in MCX market, To provide technical advice to the investors with appropriate entry and exit level to invest

in commodity market, and

To estimate the volatility of commodity for a chance to the arbitragers.1.4 HYPOTHESIS

The hypotheses for this study are as follows:

There is an insignificant between the spot price and the open price There is an insignificant between the open price and the close price

1.5 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

1.5.1 Source of data

The study is mainly based on the secondary data, the data which have been collected

from websites and journals such as.

http://www.sharekhan.com/ http://www.bseindia.com/ http://www.nseindia.com/
http://www.sharekhan.com/http://www.bseindia.com/http://www.nseindia.com/http://www.nseindia.com/http://www.bseindia.com/http://www.sharekhan.com/


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http://www.ncdex.com/ http://www.mcxindia.com/ http://www.mutualfunds.com/

1.5.2 Methods of sampling

Four commodities are selected for analysis. Simple Random Sampling is used for

selection of commodities. The selection is based on the following criteria

Mostly traded commodities in MCX are selected. Availability of data also considered for selection.

1.5.3Tools used for Analysis

The following tools are used for analyzing the future price calculation and

calculation of effective hedging price of the commodities.

Moving average

Correlation Japanese candle stick
http://www.ncdex.com/http://www.mcxindia.com/http://www.mutualfunds.com/http://www.mutualfunds.com/http://www.mcxindia.com/http://www.ncdex.com/


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1.5.3.1 Moving averages

Moving averages are one of the most popular and easy tool to use. It most probably used

by the technical analysts. They smooth a data series and make it easier to spot trends, something

that is especially helpful in volatile markets. They also form the building blocks for many other

technical indicators and overlays.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): An indicator developed by Gerald Appel

that is calculated by subtracting the 26-period exponential moving average of a given security

from its 12-period exponential moving average. By comparing moving averages, MACD

displays trend following characteristics, and by plotting the difference of the moving averages as

an oscillator, MACD displays momentum characteristics.

Steps for calculating odd number of days (3, 5, 7, and9)

If we want to calculate the three-days moving average, then:

i. Compute the value of first three days (1, 2, and 3) and place the three year total againstthe middle year (i.e., 2nd day).

ii. Leave the first years value and add up the values of the next three days (i.e.,3rd day).iii. This process must be continued until the last months value is taken for calculating

moving average.

1.5.3.2 Volatility

A statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a particular security or market

index. Volatility can be measured by using the standard deviation or the variance between

returns from the same security or market index normally, the higher the volatility, the riskier the

security. A variable in option pricing formulas showing the extent to which the return on the

underlying asset will fluctuate between now and the options expiration date. Volatility, as

expressed as a percentage coefficient within option-pricing formulas, arises out of daily trading

activities. The way volatility is measured affects the value of the coefficient used. The term

volatility indicates how much and how quickly the value of an investment market or market

sector changes.


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1.6 PERIOD OF STUDY

The period of study is for three months i.e., from December 2011 to February

2012.

1.7 SCOPE OF THE STUDY

The area of study is determination of price fluctuation of selected commodities in

Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX). The commodities are selected on the basis of availability of

data and mostly traded on MCX platform are as follows:

Gold Silver Aluminium Copper

Among these products, Gold, Silver are the precious metals. Others are non-

precious metals.

1.8 IMPORTANCE OF THE STUDY

Stock market and trading system is a set of instruction which advice opening or

closing trading position based on technical analysis.

The investment in the commodity requires sufficient knowledge on the

behaviors of the commodity and future markets. The trend of each commodity provides a

barometer of how it is performing and captures market, perception and exception. Hence it will

enable investors and others to evaluate the commodity market to select the profitable

commodity.


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1.9 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

The limitations of the study are as follows:

The study related to the short span of time that is three months, Only MCX data are collected. The project depends on secondary sources and hence limitation of secondary source also

applies to the study.

1.10 CHAPTER SCHEME

The First Chapter deals with the introduction and design of the study.

The Second Chapter contains the profile of the company and review of the

literature.

The Third Chapter reveals measuring price fluctuations using moving average

and candle stick charts.

The Fourth Chapter reveals measuring price fluctuations and movements using

candle stick chart.

The Fifth Chapter deals with price fluctuation calculations using volatility.

The Sixth Chapter often findings, suggestions and conclusion.


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CHAPTER II

PROFILE OF THE COMPANY

2.1HISTORY OF THE COMPANY

Share khan ltd is Indias leading online retail broking house with its presence

through -1800+ share shops in over 600 locations and serving more than 1000000 customers-

across the nation. Share khan offers its clients trade execution facilities for cash as well as

derivatives, on BSE and NSE, depository services, mutual fund, initial public offerings (IPOs)

and commodities trading facilities on MCX and NCDEX.

Beside high quality investment advice from an experienced research team share

khan provides market related news, stock quotes fundamental and statistical information across

equity, mutual fund, IPOs and much more.

SSIK group also comprises institutional broking and corporate finance. While the

institutional broking division caters to the largest domestic and foreign institutional investors.

The corporate finance division focuses on niche areas such as infrastructure telecom and media.

SSIK holds a sizeable portion of the market in each of these segments.

Share khan ltd has set category leadership through pioneering initiatives like

Speed Trade, a net based executable application that emulates a broker terminal besides

providing information relevant to Day traders.

As the forerunner of investment research in the India market, we provide the best

research coverage amongst broking house in India. Our research team is rated as one of the best

in the country. Voted four times as the top domestic brokerage house by Asia money survey.

SSIK is consistently ranked almagest the top domestic brokerage house in India.


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Services provided:

Derivatives trading Commodities Derivatives Trading Initial public offer Mutual fund Portfolio management services Currency trading

Derivatives trading

Derivative trading includes trading of future contract and option on stock and index. They

offer derivative trading on the platform of Bombay Stock Exchange and National StockExchange.

Commodity Derivatives Trading

Commodity derivative Trading involves trading of contract relating to the commodity

market or products. DJS is a member of the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX).

Initial public offer

They are also collecting bid cum application for public issue for any company and bided

it instead of client. They are the authorized bidder for the CDSL in Coimbatore.

Mutual funds

They are dealing various mutual funds of fund managing companies such as Standard

Chartered, ING Vysya, Reliance, UTI Franklin Temple and the like.

Portfolio management services

They are also dealing with the portfolio management services to the clients of their

company.

Currency trading

They deal with all foreign exchange currencies for the purpose of their customers.


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2.1.1MISSION:

To educate and empower the individual investor to make better investment decisionsthrough quality advice and superior service.

2.1.2VISION:

To be the best retail brokering Brand in the retail business of stock market.2.1.3 ACHIEVEMENTS OF SHAREKHAN:

A wired company along with Reliance, Hcl, Infosys, etc by Business Today, January2004 edition.

It was awarded Top Domestic Brokerage House four times by Euro and Asia money.

It was Winner of Best Financial Website award. Indias most preferred brokers within 5 years. CNBC Awaaz customers Award 2005.

2.1.4STRATEGY:

The main strategies used in our training were as follow.

2.1.4.1DATA CALLING

In data calling the company provided data of mobile numbers and the trainees job was

to generate appointments. After that the trainee were required to convert that appointment

into closure. Apart from given data the trainee also brought latest business directory. The

trainee called to different business people and tried to generate appointments.

2.1.4.2 CALLED CALLING

Called calling means to go at different corporate houses and to meet different

people and to get their visiting card by it we get lead and the trainees immediate task

was to call them & to fix appointment.


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2.1.4.3 REFERENCE:

Another important strategy was to use the trainee reference means the trainees

family, friends, relatives etc. In marketing or selling the trainee can never neglect

references & they always play a major role.

2.1.4.4 STALL ACTIVITY:

Stall activity means to make stall at public place. Then the trainees job was to

give them a newspaper with brochures and to take their name and contact number. So it

was another process of generating lead. After that the trainees job was to follow up and

try for appointment and closure.

2.1.4.5 HIERARCHY IN SHAREKHAN:

Sales Side Dealing Side

Trainees Junior Dealer

Super Trainees Dealer

Sales Executives Relationship manager

Senior sales executives Senior Relationship manager

Business developmentexecutive

Equity advisor

Assistant sales manager Assistant Branch Manager

Deputy manager Branch Manager


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Territory manager Cluster Head

Area sales manager/ Clustermanager

Directors

Regional sales manager CEO

Regional Head

Vice president

Directors


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2.2REVIEW OF LITERATURE

James Johnson, On the funding side, Federal National Mortgage Association uses a

variety of risk management derivative instrument to reduce interest rate risk on its mortgage

portfolio and to reduce its debt costs, both of which help lower mortgage rates for American

homeowners.

S. Craig Pirrong, defined that Derivatives offer institutional investors a uniquely

efficient way to manage risk and enhance returns. Any investment strategy that allows pension

funds and other institutional investors to increase return, reduces risks, and cut costs can generate

enormous benefits to retirees and individual investors in mutual funds.

According to International Monetary Fund, The use of such dynamic hedging

methods can generate liquidity problems since they can trigger an avalanche of sales into a

relatively illiquid market for the underlying securities there by collapsing the prices of causing a

break down in trading.

Brain Quinn, said that There are no fundamentally new or different risks in derivative

products, rather familiar kinds of risk are presented and combined in novel ways.

1James Johnson, Letter to congress Henry B. Gonzalez, Federal National Mortgage Association,

December 9, 1993.

2Pirrong, S. of England. Craig, Regulation, Futures Trading and Institutional Investors the American

Enterprise, Vol.5.January/February 1994.

3Bank of England. Derivatives: Report of an internal Working Group, April 1993.


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According to John Board, Charles good hart & Charles Sutcliffe, There is no

significant evidence that spot volatilities have increased since the introduction of index futures.

Hamilton(2000) concluded in his study on different models predicting GNP growth

evolution with the variable of oil price change that theres not enough historical experience to

express this relationship in one clear model in order to make clear predictions. He emphasizes

that its less the level of oil prices suggested by production -function-based models to influence

economic growth than distribution in supplies or surprise in pricing as it proposed by dislocation

based interpretation. This is also evident from the stock market since the relationship has become

even stronger after 1986 when the high price volatility on oil market began.

4john Board, Charles Good hard and Charles sutclifee, Inter-Market volatility Linkages:

The London Stock Exchange and London International Financial Futures Exchanges, Securities

and investment Board, June 1992.

6Hamilton, Volatility and economic activity, IEA Research Paper.


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CHAPTER III

MEASURING PRICE FLUCTUATION USING MOVING

AVERAGE METHOD

3.1 INTRODUCTION

MOVING AVERAGE

This chapter deals with the analysis of price fluctuation of selected commodities using

Moving Average Analysis of 4 selected commodities.

The following are the description about the column used in the table, which showed the

analysis of moving average analysis.

Column Column Name Description

1 Date Trading Date

2 Close price Close Price in Rupees

3 Moving average

Moving average calculated for every month

available for trading in Rupees.


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MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD FROM DECEMBER 2011 TO MARCH

2012

MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2011

TABLE 3.1 CHART 3.1

27000

27500

28000

28500

29000

29500

30000

30500

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

DECEMBER 2011

GOLD DECEMBER 2011

Date Close Price(Rs) Moving avg

1-Dec-11 28888

2-Dec-11 28891

3-Dec-11 28943 28907.333

5-Dec-11 28943 28925.667

6-Dec-11 29772 29219.333

7-Dec-11 30090 29601.6678-Dec-11 30069 29977

9-Dec-11 29955 30038

10-Dec-11 29955 29993

12-Dec-11 29695 29868.333

13-Dec-11 29764 29804.667

14-Dec-11 29055 29504.667

15-Dec-11 28493 29104

16-Dec-11 28387 28645

17-Dec-11 28508 28462.667

19-Dec-11 28498 28464.33320-Dec-11 28753 28586.333

21-Dec-11 28904 28718.333

22-Dec-11 28646 28767.667

23-Dec-11 28662 28737.333

24-Dec-11 28716 28674.667

26-Dec-11 28716 28698

27-Dec-11 28716 28716

28-Dec-11 28286 28572.667

29-Dec-11 27602 28201.333


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MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012

TABLE 3.2 CHART 3.2

27000

27200

27400

27600

27800

28000

28200

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

JANUARY 2012

GOLD JANUARY 2012

Date Close(Rs) Moving avg

2-Jan-12 27382

3-Jan-12 27656

4-Jan-12 27852 27630

5-Jan-12 27821 27776.333

6-Jan-12 27755 27809.333

7-Jan-12 27762 27779.333

9-Jan-12 27578 27698.333

10-Jan-12 27537 27625.667

11-Jan-12 27657 27590.667

12-Jan-12 27665 27619.667

13-Jan-12 27427 27583

14-Jan-12 27507 27533

16-Jan-12 27484 27472.667

17-Jan-12 27588 27526.333

18-Jan-12 27475 27515.667

19-Jan-12 27347 27470

20-Jan-12 27448 27423.333

21-Jan-12 27490 27428.333

23-Jan-12 27510 27482.667

24-Jan-12 27383 27461

25-Jan-12 27589 27494

27-Jan-12 27957 27643

28-Jan-12 27990 27845.333

30-Jan-12 28059 28002

31-Jan-12 28078 28042.333


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MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2012

TABLE 3.3 CHART 3.3

27000

27500

28000

28500

29000

29500

30000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

FEBRUARY 2012GOLD FEBRUARY 2012

Date Close price Moving avg

1-Feb-12 28083

2-Feb-12 28155

3-Feb-12 27711 27983

4-Feb-12 27948 27938

6-Feb-12 28950 28203

7-Feb-12 28950 28616

8-Feb-12 29306 29068.67

9-Feb-12 29326 29194

10-Feb-12 29279 29303.67

11-Feb-12 29272 29292.33

13-Feb-12 29155 29235.33

14-Feb-12 29062 29163

15-Feb-12 29246 29154.33

16-Feb-12 29161 29156.33

17-Feb-12 29141 29182.67

18-Feb-12 29141 29147.67

20-Feb-12 29156 29146

21-Feb-12 29425 29240.67

22-Feb-12 29600 29393.67

23-Feb-12 29918 29647.6724-Feb-12 29780 29766

25-Feb-12 29730 29809.33

27-Feb-12 29739 29749.67

28-Feb-12 29957 29808.67

29-Feb-12 29091 29595.67


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INTERPRETATION

The above tables and charts reveal the price fluctuation of gold.

In the December month, the maximum price is Rs.30,090 and the minimum price is

Rs.27,602. In the January month, the maximum price is Rs.28,078 and the minimum price is

Rd.27,347. In the February month, the maximum price is Rs.29,957 and the minimum price is

27,711. It indicates that in the month of January there was high decline of gold because of the

recession and in the month of February there was a high fluctuation throughout the month.


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MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER FROM DECEMBER 2011 TO MARCH

2012

MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2011

TABLE 3.4 CHART 3.4

51000

52000

53000

5400055000

56000

57000

58000

59000

60000

61000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

DECEMBER 2011SILVER DECEMBER 2011

Date Close(Rs) Moving

avg

1-Dec-11 54953

2-Dec-11 55076

3-Dec-11 55270 55099.667

5-Dec-11 55501 55282.333

6-Dec-11 60101 56957.333

7-Dec-11 60525 587098-Dec-11 59656 60094

9-Dec-11 59656 59945.667

10-Dec-11 59656 59656

12-Dec-11 59851 59721

13-Dec-11 59800 59769

14-Dec-11 58777 59476

15-Dec-11 56810 58462.333

16-Dec-11 56922 57503

17-Dec-11 56922 56884.667

19-Dec-11 56423 56755.66720-Dec-11 56679 56674.667

21-Dec-11 56679 56593.667

22-Dec-11 56239 56532.333

23-Dec-11 56500 56472.667

24-Dec-11 57254 56664.333

26-Dec-11 56449 56734.333

27-Dec-11 56242 56648.333

28-Dec-11 54797 55829.333

29-Dec-11 52795 54611.333


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MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012

TABLE 3.5 CHART 3.5

49000

50000

51000

52000

53000

54000

55000

56000

57000

58000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

JANUARY 2012Date

SILVER JANUARY 2012

Close Moving avg

2-Jan-12 51330

3-Jan-12 53109

4-Jan-12 52761 52400

5-Jan-12 52740 52870

6-Jan-12 51868 52456.333

7-Jan-12 51845 52151

9-Jan-12 51749 51820.667

10-Jan-12 52566 52053.333

11-Jan-12 52607 52307.333

12-Jan-12 52770 52647.667

13-Jan-12 52001 52459.333

14-Jan-12 52124 52298.333

16-Jan-12 52315 52146.667

17-Jan-12 53207 52548.667

18-Jan-12 53428 52983.333

19-Jan-12 53387 53340.667

20-Jan-12 54825 53880

21-Jan-12 55548 54586.667

23-Jan-12 55565 55312.667

24-Jan-12 55365 55492.667

25-Jan-12 56411 55780.333

27-Jan-12 57165 56313.667

28-Jan-12 57229 56935

30-Jan-12 56992 57128.667

31-Jan-12 56422 56881


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MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2012

TABLE 3.6 CHART 3.6

54000

55000

56000

57000

58000

59000

60000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

FEBRUARY 2012SILVER FEBRUARY 2012

Date Close

price

Moving

avg

1-Feb-12 56834

2-Feb-12 57023

3-Feb-12 56161 56672.67

4-Feb-12 56157 56447

6-Feb-12 56426 56248

7-Feb-12 57265 566168-Feb-12 56821 56837.33

9-Feb-12 57177 57087.67

10-Feb-12 56915 56971

11-Feb-12 56875 56989

13-Feb-12 56664 56818

14-Feb-12 56416 56651.67

15-Feb-12 56303 56461

16-Feb-12 56216 56311.67

17-Feb-12 55926 56148.33

18-Feb-12 56108 56083.33

20-Feb-12 56320 56118

21-Feb-12 57157 56528.33

22-Feb-12 57257 56911.33

23-Feb-12 58677 57697

24-Feb-12 58404 58112.67

25-Feb-12 58435 58505.33

27-Feb-12 58710 58516.33

28-Feb-12 60883 59342.67

29-Feb-12 57783 59125.33


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INTERPRETATION

The above tables and charts reveal the price fluctuation of silver.

In the December month, the maximum price is Rs.60525 and the minimum price is Rs.52795.

In the January month, the maximum price is Rs.57229 and the minimum price is Rd.51330. In the

February month, the maximum price is Rs60883 and the minimum price is 56108. The table and

chart indicates that in the month of December there was a decline in silver price and in the month of

January and February there was a slow and steady increase in silver price.


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MOVING AVERAGE OF ALUMINIUM FROM DECEMBER 2011 TO

MARCH 2012

MOVING AVERAGE OF ALUMINIUM FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2011

TABLE 3.7 CHART 3.7

105

106

107

108

109

110

111

112

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

DECEMBER 2011ALUMINIUM DECEMBER 2011

Date Close(Rs) Moving avg

1-Dec-11 110.85

2-Dec-11 112.15

3-Dec-11 111.6 111.5333333

5-Dec-11 110.9 111.55

6-Dec-11 111.2 111.2333333

7-Dec-11 110.8 110.9666667

8-Dec-11 109.85 110.6166667

9-Dec-11 110.5 110.383333310-Dec-11 110.5 110.2833333

12-Dec-11 110.05 110.35

13-Dec-11 110.3 110.2833333

14-Dec-11 109.45 109.9333333

15-Dec-11 108.7 109.4833333

16-Dec-11 108.2 108.7833333

17-Dec-11 108.3 108.4

19-Dec-11 107.35 107.95

20-Dec-11 108.15 107.9333333

21-Dec-11 108 107.833333322-Dec-11 108.1 108.0833333

23-Dec-11 108.85 108.3166667

24-Dec-11 108.85 108.6

26-Dec-11 108.85 108.85

27-Dec-11 108.5 108.7333333

28-Dec-11 109.05 108.8

29-Dec-11 108.15 108.5666667


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MOVING AVERAGE OF ALUMINIUM FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012

TABLE 3.8 CHART 3.8

108

109

110

111

112

113

114

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

JANUARY 2012ALUMINIUM JANUARY 2012

Date Close Moving

avg

2-Jan-12 110.05

3-Jan-12 110.6

4-Jan-12 111.85 110.83333

5-Jan-12 110.6 111.01667

6-Jan-12 110.45 110.96667

7-Jan-12 110.45 110.5

9-Jan-12 112.4 111.1

10-Jan-12 113.1 111.98333

11-Jan-12 113.55 113.0166712-Jan-12 114.05 113.56667

13-Jan-12 112.6 113.4

14-Jan-12 112.9 113.18333

16-Jan-12 112.85 112.78333

17-Jan-12 114.2 113.31667

18-Jan-12 113.25 113.43333

19-Jan-12 113.65 113.7

20-Jan-12 113.2 113.36667

21-Jan-12 113.2 113.35

23-Jan-12 113.25 113.2166724-Jan-12 113.85 113.43333

25-Jan-12 113.5 113.53333

27-Jan-12 113.75 113.7

28-Jan-12 113.5 113.58333

30-Jan-12 113.2 113.48333

31-Jan-12 113.4 113.36667


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MOVING AVERAGE OF ALUMINIUM FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2012

TABLE 3.9 CHART 3.9

105

106

107

108

109

110

111

112

113

114

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

FEBRUARY 2012ALUMINIUM FEBRUARY 2012

Date Close price Moving

avg

1-Feb-12 112.65

2-Feb-12 110.2

3-Feb-12 110.8 111.2167

4-Feb-12 110.8 110.6

6-Feb-12 110.9 110.8333

7-Feb-12 111.85 111.18338-Feb-12 112.25 111.6667

9-Feb-12 113.7 112.6

10-Feb-12 112.65 112.8667

11-Feb-12 112.85 113.0667

13-Feb-12 110.95 112.15

14-Feb-12 110.65 111.4833

15-Feb-12 110.3 110.6333

16-Feb-12 108.95 109.9667

17-Feb-12 108.25 109.1667

18-Feb-12 108.2 108.4667

20-Feb-12 108.6 108.35

21-Feb-12 111 109.2667

22-Feb-12 112.55 110.7167

23-Feb-12 112.2 111.9167

24-Feb-12 111.65 112.1333

25-Feb-12 111.55 111.8

27-Feb-12 111.24 111.48

28-Feb-12 112.1 111.63

29-Feb-12 112.65 111.9967


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INTERPRETATION

The above tables and charts reveal the price fluctuation of aluminium.

In the December month, the maximum price is Rs.112.15 and the minimum price is

Rs.107.35. In the January month, the maximum price is Rs.114.2 and the minimum price is

Rs.110.65. In the February month, the maximum price is Rs.112.85 and the minimum price is

Rs.108.2. The table and chart indicates that in the month of December there was a full decline and in

the month of January a slow and steady increase in aluminium. But in the month of February the

aluminium price was highly fluctuated.


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MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER FROM DECEMBER 2011 TO MARCH

2012

MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2011

TABLE 3.10 CHART 3.10

385

390

395

400

405

410

415

420

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

DECEMBER 2011COPPER DECEMBER 2011

Date Close(Rs) Moving

avg

1-Dec-11 412.1

2-Dec-11 414.4

3-Dec-11 415.2 0

5-Dec-11 419.45 416.35

6-Dec-11 416.15 416.93333

7-Dec-11 416 417.2

8-Dec-11 413.45 415.2

9-Dec-11 418.9 416.11667

10-Dec-11 420.05 417.46667

12-Dec-11 414.25 417.73333

13-Dec-11 415.6 416.63333

14-Dec-11 404.5 411.45

15-Dec-11 397.85 405.98333

16-Dec-11 397.75 400.0333317-Dec-11 400.5 398.7

19-Dec-11 397.55 398.6

20-Dec-11 403.75 400.6

21-Dec-11 405.35 402.21667

22-Dec-11 408.05 405.71667

23-Dec-11 413.6 409

24-Dec-11 414.35 412

26-Dec-11 414.25 414.06667

27-Dec-11 410.9 413.16667

28-Dec-11 407.5 410.8833329-Dec-11 407.5 408.63333


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MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012


390

395

400

405

410

415

420

425

430

435

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

JANUARY 2012

COPPER JANUARY 2012

Date close Moving avg

2-Jan-12 415.5

3-Jan-12 417.65

4-Jan-12 407.5 413.55

5-Jan-12 406.3 410.4833333

6-Jan-12 406.3 406.7

7-Jan-12 405.8 406.1333333

9-Jan-12 402.95 405.0166667

10-Jan-12 407.75 405.511-Jan-12 411.15 407.2833333

12-Jan-12 420.3 413.0666667

13-Jan-12 419.5 416.9833333

14-Jan-12 419.65 419.8166667

16-Jan-12 422.05 420.4

17-Jan-12 423.4 421.7

18-Jan-12 422.8 422.75

19-Jan-12 427.55 424.5833333

20-Jan-12 421.15 423.8333333

21-Jan-12 421.85 423.5166667

23-Jan-12 424.9 422.6333333

24-Jan-12 426.1 424.2833333

25-Jan-12 427 426

27-Jan-12 429.6 427.5666667

28-Jan-12 429.7 428.7666667

30-Jan-12 425.85 428.3833333

31-Jan-12 422.35 425.9666667


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MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2012


400

405

410

415

420

425

430

435

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

FEBRUARY 2012COPPER FEBRUARY 2012

Date Close price Moving

avg

1-Feb-12 423.45

2-Feb-12 416.8

3-Feb-12 424.15 421.4667

4-Feb-12 424.1 421.6833

6-Feb-12 423.8 424.0167

7-Feb-12 426.1 424.6667

8-Feb-12 429.8 426.5667

9-Feb-12 439.15 431.6833

10-Feb-12 429.9 432.95

11-Feb-12 430.15 433.0667

13-Feb-12 424.85 428.3

14-Feb-12 423.65 426.2167

15-Feb-12 421.7 423.4

16-Feb-12 421.3 422.2167

17-Feb-12 412.25 418.416718-Feb-12 413.15 415.5667

20-Feb-12 414.6 413.3333

21-Feb-12 421.9 416.55

22-Feb-12 422.9 419.8

23-Feb-12 418.9 421.2333

24-Feb-12 423.1 421.6333

25-Feb-12 422.6 421.5333

27-Feb-12 426.65 424.1167

28-Feb-12 428.65 425.9667

29-Feb-12 425.55 426.95


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INTERPRETATION

The above tables and charts reveal the price fluctuation of copper.

In the December month, the maximum price is Rs.112.15 and the minimum price is

Rs.107.35. In the January month, the maximum price is Rs.114.2 and the minimum price is

Rs.110.65. In the February month, the maximum price is Rs.112.85 and the minimum price is

Rs.108.2. The table and charts indicates that in the month of December and February the price of

copper was highly fluctuated and in the month of January there was a slow and steady fluctuation.


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CHAPTER IV

MEASURING PRICE FLUCTUATION USING CANDLESTICK

CHART

4.1 INTRODUCTION

This chapter deals with the analysis of price fluctuation of selected commodities

using Candle Stick Chart of 4 selected commodities.

The following are the description about the column used in the table, which showed the

analysis of moving average analysis.


1 Date Trading Date

2 Open Price Open Price in Rupees

3 High Price High Price in Rupees

4 Low Price Low Price in Rupees

5 Close Price Close Price in Rupees


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CANDLE STICK OF GOLD FROM DECEMBER 2011 TO MARCH

2012

PRICE FLUCTUATION OF GOLD FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2011

TABLE 4.1

Date Open(Rs) High(Rs) Low(Rs) Close(Rs)

1-Dec-11 29635 29140 28850 28888

2-Dec-11 28968 29028 28846 28891

3-Dec-11 28901 28964 28901 28943

5-Dec-11 29046 28800 28980 28943

6-Dec-11 29760 29820 29735 29772

7-Dec-11 30090 30090 30090 30090

8-Dec-11 30200 30200 29988 30069

9-Dec-11 29980 29980 29930 29955

10-Dec-11 0 0 0 29955

12-Dec-11 29680 29734 29672 29695

13-Dec-11 29817 29817 29714 29764

14-Dec-11 29607 29639 28872 29055

15-Dec-11 28750 28849 28300 28493

16-Dec-11 28209 28458 28036 28387

17-Dec-11 28487 28531 28487 28508

19-Dec-11 28450 28582 28448 28498

20-Dec-11 28687 28780 28671 28753

21-Dec-11 28885 28999 28800 28904

22-Dec-11 28615 28732 28603 28646

23-Dec-11 28680 28690 28655 2866224-Dec-11 28701 28725 28701 28716

26-Dec-11 0 0 0 28716

27-Dec-11 0 0 0 28716

28-Dec-11 28429 28429 28142 28286

29-Dec-11 28020 28020 27510 27602


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PRICE FLUCTUATION OF GOLD USING CANDLE STICK CHART

DECEMBER 2011

CHART 4.1

24000

25000

26000

27000

28000

29000

30000

31000

GOLD CANDLESTICK CHART DEC 2011


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PRICE FLUCTUATION OF GOLD FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012

TABLE 4.2


2-Jan-12 27300 27414 27271 27382

3-Jan-12 27448 27779 27414 27656

4-Jan-12 27701 27888 27540 27852

5-Jan-12 27812 27875 27540 27821

6-Jan-12 27830 27945 27652 27755

7-Jan-12 27764 27768 27732 27762

9-Jan-12 27737 27757 27551 27578

10-Jan-12 27538 27639 27476 27537

11-Jan-12 27595 27736 27585 27657

12-Jan-12 27689 27816 27632 27665

13-Jan-12 27600 27600 27390 27427

14-Jan-12 27450 27540 27450 27507

16-Jan-12 27540 27591 27463 27484

17-Jan-12 27519 27778 27495 27588

18-Jan-12 27550 27582 27327 27475

19-Jan-12 27490 27569 27308 27347

20-Jan-12 27365 27492 27222 27448

21-Jan-12 27488 27524 27475 27490

23-Jan-12 27489 27594 27408 27510

24-Jan-12 27487 27533 27342 27383

25-Jan-12 27394 27655 27170 27589

27-Jan-12 27580 28084 27580 27957

28-Jan-12 27991 28013 27975 2799030-Jan-12 28030 28094 27845 28059

31-Jan-12 28100 28199 28044 28078


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PRICE FLUCTUATION OF GOLD USING CANDLESTICK CHART

JANUARY 2012

CHART 4.2

26600

26800

27000

27200

27400

27600

27800

28000

28200

28400

GOLD CANDLESTICK CHART JAN 2012


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PRICE FLUCTUATION OF GOLD FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2012

TABLE 4.3


1-Feb-12 28125 28200 28040 28083

2-Feb-12 28045 28244 27997 28155

3-Feb-12 28151 28233 27445 27711

4-Feb-12 27525 27765 27500 27948

6-Feb-12 28950 28950 28950 28950

7-Feb-12 0 0 0 28950

8-Feb-12 29317 29367 29260 29306

9-Feb-12 29309 29419 29300 29326

10-Feb-12 29330 29330 29138 29279

11-Feb-12 29275 29294 29254 29272

13-Feb-12 29164 29185 29117 29155

14-Feb-12 29010 29104 28989 29062

15-Feb-12 29180 29293 29180 29246

16-Feb-12 29235 29236 29140 29161

17-Feb-12 29220 29220 29109 29141

18-Feb-12 0 0 0 2914120-Feb-12 29156 29156 29156 29156

21-Feb-12 29304 29465 29282 29425

22-Feb-12 29499 29700 29498 29600

23-Feb-12 29773 29968 29773 29918

24-Feb-12 29800 29820 29725 29780

25-Feb-12 29715 29746 29715 29730

27-Feb-12 29688 29781 29688 29739

28-Feb-12 29788 29988 29780 29957

29-Feb-12 30013 30017 29018 29091


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PRICE FLUCTUATION OF GOLD USING CANDLESTICK CHART

FEBRUARY 2012

CHART 4.3

INTERPRETATION

The above charts show the price fluctuation of gold for the month of December, January

and February. On 15th Dec, 4th Jan, 5th Feb White Candle is formed which shows the bullish

mood in the market, it indicates that the traders to buy and hold the stock. On 29 st Dec, 9th Jan,

29th Feb Black Candle is formed which indicate the trader to dispose the stock and the market is

bearish. Rest of the days Doji was formed where the market is uncertainty, i.e., there is

indecision bulls and bears.

27000

27500

28000

28500

29000

29500

30000

30500

GOLD CANDLE STICK CHART FEB 2012


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40

CANDLE STICK OF SILVER FROM DECEMBER 2011 TO MARCH

2012

PRICE FLUCTUATIONOF SILVER FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2011

TABLE 4.4


1-Dec-11 55900 55950 54806 54953

2-Dec-11 54517 56005 54515 55076

3-Dec-11 55126 55288 55096 55270

5-Dec-11 55300 55653 54850 55501

6-Dec-11 0 0 0 60101

7-Dec-11 60400 60650 60400 60525

8-Dec-11 59901 59901 59525 59656

9-Dec-11 0 0 0 59656

10-Dec-11 0 0 0 59656

12-Dec-11 59851 59851 59851 59851

13-Dec-11 59800 59800 59800 5980014-Dec-11 59602 59602 58006 58777

15-Dec-11 56426 57256 56000 56810

16-Dec-11 56950 57083 56820 56922

17-Dec-11 0 0 0 56922

19-Dec-11 56343 56450 56343 56423

20-Dec-11 56650 56803 56585 56679

21-Dec-11 0 0 0 56679

22-Dec-11 56182 56273 56182 56239

23-Dec-11 56309 56602 56309 56500

24-Dec-11 58760 58760 56497 57254

26-Dec-11 56449 56449 56449 56449

27-Dec-11 56149 56399 56144 56242

28-Dec-11 55700 55750 53608 54797

29-Dec-11 54012 54012 52060 52795


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PRICE FLUCTUATION OF SILVER USING CANDLESTICK CHART

DECEMBER 2011

CHART 4.4

50000

52000

54000

56000

58000

60000

62000

SILVER CANDLESTICK CHART DEC 2011


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PRICE FLUCTUATIONOF SILVER FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012

TABLE 4.5


2-Jan-12 51000 51381 51000 51330

3-Jan-12 51493 53500 51493 53109

4-Jan-12 53000 53420 52260 52761

5-Jan-12 52900 52988 51861 52740

6-Jan-12 52625 52758 51548 51868

7-Jan-12 51789 51892 51688 51845

9-Jan-12 51940 52150 51366 51749

10-Jan-12 51755 53019 51755 52566

11-Jan-12 52663 52968 52230 5260712-Jan-12 52710 53400 52603 52770

13-Jan-12 52600 52600 51871 52001

14-Jan-12 52134 52172 52100 52124

16-Jan-12 52249 52475 52056 52315

17-Jan-12 52392 53874 52392 53207

18-Jan-12 53099 53515 52845 53428

19-Jan-12 53428 53860 53232 53387

20-Jan-12 53489 55024 53170 54825

21-Jan-12 55040 55879 55040 55548

23-Jan-12 55666 56490 55232 55565

24-Jan-12 55700 55949 55235 55365

25-Jan-12 55555 56585 54671 56411

27-Jan-12 56573 57396 56573 57165

28-Jan-12 57250 57450 57183 57229

30-Jan-12 57090 57145 56425 56992

31-Jan-12 57055 57490 56112 56422


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JANUARY 2012

CHART 4.5

46000

48000

50000

52000

54000

56000

58000

SILVER CANDLESTICK CHART JAN 2012


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PRICE FLUCTUATIONOF SILVER FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2012

TABLE 4.6


1-Feb-12 56520 57168 56356 56834

2-Feb-12 56750 57381 56326 57023

3-Feb-12 57257 57370 55650 56161

4-Feb-12 55901 56178 55901 56157

6-Feb-12 56207 56539 55675 56426

7-Feb-12 56350 57400 56011 57265

8-Feb-12 57352 57777 56689 56821

9-Feb-12 56836 57724 56831 57177

10-Feb-12 57221 57375 56378 56915

11-Feb-12 56890 56951 56794 56875

13-Feb-12 56925 57038 56433 56664

14-Feb-12 56571 56956 56220 56416

15-Feb-12 56475 56975 56250 56303

16-Feb-12 56240 56396 55551 56216

17-Feb-12 56288 56499 55781 55926

18-Feb-12 56089 56133 55932 5610820-Feb-12 56240 56410 56211 56320

21-Feb-12 56348 57300 56242 57157

22-Feb-12 57171 57448 56856 57257

23-Feb-12 57243 58784 57218 58677

24-Feb-12 58580 58888 58254 58404

25-Feb-12 58414 58487 58364 58435

27-Feb-12 58540 58850 58311 58710

28-Feb-12 58560 61119 58525 6088329-Feb-12 60687 61488 57230 57783


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FEBRUARY 2012

CHART 4.6

INTERPRETATION

The above charts show the price fluctuation of silver for the month of December, January

and February. On 3rd

Dec, 2nd

Jan, 7th

Feb White Candle is formed which shows the bullish

mood in the market, it indicates that the traders to buy and hold the stock. On 25st

Dec, 6th

Jan,

29rd

Feb Black Candle is formed which indicate the trader to dispose the stock and the market is

bearish. Rest of the days Doji was formed where the market is uncertainty, i.e., there is


52000

53000

54000

55000

56000

57000

58000

59000

60000

61000

62000

SILVER CANDLESTICK CHART FEB 2012


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CANDLE STICK OF ALUMINIUM FROM DECEMBER 2011 TO MARCH

2012

PRICE FLUCTUATIONOF ALUMINIUM FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2011

TABLE 4.7


1-Dec-11 110.4 112.1 110.35 110.85

2-Dec-11 112 112.6 111.8 112.15

3-Dec-11 111.6 111.6 111.6 111.6

5-Dec-11 110.7 111.6 110.5 110.9

6-Dec-11 111.35 111.35 111 111.2

7-Dec-11 111.7 112.1 109.8 110.8

8-Dec-11 110.65 110.65 109.6 109.85

9-Dec-11 110.25 110.75 110 110.5

10-Dec-11 0 0 0 110.5

12-Dec-11 110 110.35 109.55 110.05

13-Dec-11 110.7 110.7 110.1 110.3

14-Dec-11 110.4 110.6 109.05 109.45

15-Dec-11 109.75 109.75 108.4 108.7

16-Dec-11 108.05 108.5 107.85 108.2

17-Dec-11 108.3 108.3 108.3 108.3

19-Dec-11 108.3 108.3 106.8 107.35

20-Dec-11 107.55 108.6 107.45 108.15

21-Dec-11 108.75 108.75 107.5 108

22-Dec-11 107.9 108.55 107.5 108.1

23-Dec-11 109 109 108.7 108.8524-Dec-11 0 0 0 108.85

26-Dec-11 108.8 109 108.8 108.85

27-Dec-11 108.45 108.6 108.45 108.5

28-Dec-11 109 109.35 108.5 109.05

29-Dec-11 108.25 108.65 108 108.15


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PRICE FLUCTUATION OF ALUMINIUM USING CANDLESTICK

CHART DECEMBER 2011

CHART 4.7

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

ALUMINIUM CANDLESTICK CHART DEC 2011


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PRICE FLUCTUATIONOF ALUMINIUM FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012

TABLE 4.8


2-Jan-12 110.05 110.05 110.05 110.05

3-Jan-12 110.15 111.1 110.1 110.6

4-Jan-12 111.1 112.25 111.1 111.85

5-Jan-12 111.2 111.25 110.05 110.6

6-Jan-12 110.15 111 110.15 110.45

7-Jan-12 0 0 0 110.45

9-Jan-12 112.1 112.9 111.9 112.4

10-Jan-12 112.8 113.4 112.8 113.1

11-Jan-12 113.7 113.8 113.25 113.55

12-Jan-12 113.7 114.85 113.25 114.05

13-Jan-12 112.6 113.15 112 112.6

14-Jan-12 112.9 112.9 112.9 112.9

16-Jan-12 112.85 112.85 112.85 112.85

17-Jan-12 114.15 114.65 113.8 114.2

18-Jan-12 113.9 113.9 113 113.25

19-Jan-12 113.9 113.9 113.3 113.65

20-Jan-12 113.4 113.75 112.9 113.2

21-Jan-12 0 0 0 113.2

23-Jan-12 112.9 113.55 112.9 113.25

24-Jan-12 113.8 113.9 113.8 113.85

25-Jan-12 113.35 113.75 113.35 113.5

27-Jan-12 114.25 114.25 113.2 113.75

28-Jan-12 113.5 113.5 113.5 113.5

30-Jan-12 113.1 114.1 112.65 113.2

31-Jan-12 114.5 115.25 113 113.4


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CHART JANUARY 2012

CHART 4.8

108

109

110

111

112

113

114

115

116

ALUMINIUM CANDLESTICK CHART JAN 2012


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PRICE FLUCTUATIONOF ALUMINIUM FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2012

TABLE 4.9


1-Feb-12 111.8 113.95 111.8 112.65

2-Feb-12 113.05 113.05 110 110.2

3-Feb-12 110.4 111.1 109.4 110.8

4-Feb-12 0 0 0 110.8

6-Feb-12 111.2 111.4 110.3 110.9

7-Feb-12 110.3 112.15 109.8 111.85

8-Feb-12 111.95 113.5 111.85 112.25

9-Feb-12 112.25 114.1 112.2 113.7

10-Feb-12 111.85 114.25 111.85 112.65

11-Feb-12 112.5 113 112.5 112.85

13-Feb-12 112.65 112.65 110.7 110.95

14-Feb-12 110.35 111.15 110.1 110.65

15-Feb-12 111.5 111.5 110.15 110.3

16-Feb-12 109.9 110.2 108.6 108.95

17-Feb-12 109.25 109.25 108 108.25

18-Feb-12 108.15 108.35 108.15 108.2

20-Feb-12 108.95 108.95 108.3 108.6

21-Feb-12 109.15 111.1 109.15 111

22-Feb-12 111.3 112.75 111.1 112.55

23-Feb-12 112.35 112.8 112 112.2

24-Feb-12 109.7 111.9 109.4 111.65

25-Feb-12 111.8 111.8 111.45 111.55

27-Feb-12 111.45 112.85 111.4 111.24

28-Feb-12 112.6 113.3 111.7 112.129-Feb-12 112.25 113.05 112 112.65


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CHART FEBRUARY 2012

CHART 4.9

INTERPRETATION

The above charts show the price fluctuation of aluminium for the month of December,

January and February. On 1st Dec, 4th Jan, 1st Feb White Candle is formed which shows the

bullish mood in the market, it indicates that the traders to buy and hold the stock. On 7st

Dec, 6th

Jan, 3rd

Feb Black Candle is formed which indicate the trader to dispose the stock and the market

is bearish. Rest of the days Doji was formed where the market is uncertainty, i.e., there is


100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

116

ALUMINIUM CANDLESTICK CHART FEB 2012


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53

PRICE FLUCTUATION OF COPPER USING CANDLESTICK CHART

DECEMBER 2011

CHART 4.10

380

385

390

395

400

405

410

415

420

425

COPPER CANDLESTICK CHART DEC 2011


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PRICE FLUCTUATION OF COPPER FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012

TABLE 4.11


2-Jan-11 411.5 418 410.5 415.5

3-Jan-11 412 419 412 417.65

4-Jan-11 416.25 416.25 406.8 407.5

5-Jan-11 408.85 410.9 402.6 406.3

6-Jan-11 407.05 408 402.55 406.3

7-Jan-11 406.05 406.05 405.5 405.8

9-Jan-11 405 405 400.9 402.95

10-Jan-11 402.1 408.15 401.7 407.75

11-Jan-11 406.55 411.5 405.65 411.15

12-Jan-11 409.6 422.4 409.6 420.3

13-Jan-11 419.35 423.9 415.2 419.5

14-Jan-11 420.4 420.85 419.1 419.65

16-Jan-11 419.15 423.2 417.8 422.05

17-Jan-11 422.85 427.95 422 423.4

18-Jan-11 423.4 425.2 420.2 422.8

19-Jan-11 424.3 429.2 424.25 427.5520-Jan-11 428.6 430.2 420.3 421.15

21-Jan-11 421.15 422.05 421.15 421.85

23-Jan-11 421.8 426.65 419 424.9

24-Jan-11 424.45 426.5 421.4 426.1

25-Jan-11 427.1 428.6 422.6 427

27-Jan-11 429 434 428.1 429.6

28-Jan-11 428.9 429.9 428.85 429.7

30-Jan-11 428.05 428.05 423.25 425.85

31-Jan-11 426 428.8 420.9 422.35


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JANUARY 2012

CHART 4.11

380

390

400

410

420

430

440

COPPER CANDLESTICK CHART JAN 2012


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PRICE FLUCTUATION OF COPPER FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2012

TABLE 4.12


1-Feb-11 421.5 423.9 418.8 423.45

2-Feb-11 421 423.1 415.55 416.8

3-Feb-11 418.2 424.65 414.65 424.15

4-Feb-11 425 425.3 423.8 424.1

6-Feb-11 423.2 425.25 421.6 423.8

7-Feb-11 422.55 426.65 419.7 426.1

8-Feb-11 427 432.6 426.2 429.8

9-Feb-11 429.05 439.6 428.9 439.15

10-Feb-11 437.7 439.4 429.2 429.9

11-Feb-11 429.65 430.6 429.5 430.15

13-Feb-11 430.3 431.4 422.7 424.85

14-Feb-11 422.6 426.45 421 423.65

15-Feb-11 425.45 427.05 420.55 421.7

16-Feb-11 421.05 422.3 416.75 421.3

17-Feb-11 422.4 422.9 411 412.25

18-Feb-11 412.55 413.55 412.35 413.15

20-Feb-11 414.2 416.45 412.2 414.6

21-Feb-11 416 422.2 415.55 421.9

22-Feb-11 422.4 424.1 419.55 422.9

23-Feb-11 421.55 422 416.65 418.9

24-Feb-11 418.55 424.35 416.05 423.1

25-Feb-11 422.5 425.75 422.15 422.6

27-Feb-11 422.15 427 421.5 426.65

28-Feb-11 425.65 433 425.25 428.65

29-Feb-11 428.15 432.4 419.2 425.55


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57


FEBRUARY 2012

CHART 4.12

INTERPRETATION

The above charts show the price fluctuation of copper for the month of December, January and

February. On 3rd Dec, 2nd Jan, 1st Feb White Candle is formed which shows the bullish mood in the

market, it indicates that the traders to buy and hold the stock. On 1 st Dec, 4th Jan, 2nd Feb Black Candle is

formed which indicate the trader to dispose the stock and the market is bearish. Rest of the days Doji was

formed where the market is uncertainty, i.e., there is indecision bulls and bears.

395

400

405

410

415

420

425430

435

440

445

1-Feb-11

2-Feb-11

3-Feb-11

4-Feb-11

6-Feb-11

7-Feb-11

8-Feb-11

9-Feb-11

10-Feb-11

11-Feb-11

13-Feb-11

14-Feb-11

15-Feb-11

16-Feb-11

17-Feb-11

18-Feb-11

20-Feb-11

21-Feb-11

22-Feb-11

23-Feb-11

24-Feb-11

25-Feb-11

27-Feb-11

28-Feb-11

29-Feb-11

COPPER CANDLESTICK CHART FEB

2012


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58

CHAPTER V

PRICE FLUCTUATION CALCULATIONS USINGVOLATILITY

5.1INTRODUCTION

VOLATILITY

This chapter dealt with analysis and interpretation of volatility to estimate the uncertainty. The

following are the description about the column used in the table, which showed the analysis of

volatility.


1 Date Trading date

2 High Price High price in rupees

3 Low Price Low price in Rupees

4 (H/L) High price / Low price

5 (H/L)

Square of High price / Low price

6 Log Log of the calculated value

7 Sum of log Sum of all calculated values

8 1/n Sum of log values/ number of days

9 Sqrt Square root of the Calculated value

10 K*n K value * n value


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59

VOLATILITY OF GOLD FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2011

TABLE 5.1

DateHigh

PriceLow price (H/L) (H/L)2 Log value Sum of log 1/n sqrt k*n

1-Dec-11 29140 28850 1.010052 1.020205029 0.00868746 0.170371029 0.007098793 0.084254 0.05063

2-Dec-11 29028 28846 1.006309 1.012658542 0.00546303

3-Dec-11 28964 28901 1.00218 1.004364463 0.00189134

5-Dec-11 29800 28800 1.034722 1.070650077 0.02964755

6-Dec-11 29820 29735 1.002859 1.00572534 0.00072597

7-Dec-11 30090 30090 1 1 0

8-Dec-11 30200 29988 1.007069 1.014188967 0.00608078

9-Dec-11 29980 29930 1.001671 1.00334392 0.00881343

12-Dec-11 29734 29672 1.00209 1.00418339 0.00181286

13-Dec-11 29817 29714 1.003466 1.006944775 0.0061189

14-Dec-11 29639 28872 1.026566 1.053836789 0.00144986

15-Dec-11 28849 28300 1.019399 1.039174919 0.01668869

16-Dec-11 28458 28036 1.015052 1.030330717 0.00181286

17-Dec-11 28531 28487 1.001545 1.003091514 0.00300575

19-Dec-11 28582 28448 1.00471 1.009442885 0.02277344

20-Dec-11 28780 28671 1.003802 1.007617955 0.01668869

21-Dec-11 28999 28800 1.00691 1.013867189 0.01297677

22-Dec-11 28732 28603 1.00451 1.009040373 0.00134077

23-Dec-11 28690 28655 1.001221 1.002444347 0.0040818

24-Dec-11 28725 28701 1.000836 1.001673115 0.00329592

26-Dec-11 0 0 0 0 0

27-Dec-11 0 0 0 0 0

28-Dec-11 28429 28142 1.010198 1.020500565 0.00106012

29-Dec-11 28020 27510 1.018539 1.03742111 0.01595503


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60

VOLATILTIY OF GOLD FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012

TABLE 5.2

DateHigh

Price

Low price (H/L) (H/L)2 Log Sum of log 1/n sqrt k*n

2-Jan-12 27414 27271 1.005244 1.010514827 0.00454276 0.175415375 0.007016615 0.083765 0.050343

3-Jan-12 27779 27414 1.013314 1.026806002 0.0114884

4-Jan-12 27888 27540 1.012636 1.025432004 0.01090687

5-Jan-12 27875 27540 1.012164 1.024476216 0.01050179

6-Jan-12 27945 27652 1.010596 1.021304232 0.00915503

7-Jan-12 27768 27732 1.001298 1.002597964 0.00112683

9-Jan-12 27757 27551 1.007477 1.015009991 0.00647032

10-Jan-12 27639 27476 1.005932 1.011900094 0.0051376

11-Jan-12 27736 27585 1.005474 1.010977944 0.0047417

12-Jan-12 27816 27632 1.006659 1.013362234 0.00576461

13-Jan-12 27600 27390 1.007667 1.015392847 0.00663417

14-Jan-12 27540 27450 1.003279 1.006568127 0.00284312

16-Jan-12 27591 27463 1.004661 1.009343356 0.00403878

17-Jan-12 27778 27495 1.010293 1.020691502 0.00889471

18-Jan-12 27582 27327 1.009331 1.018749937 0.00806762

19-Jan-12 27569 27308 1.009558 1.019206626 0.0082624

20-Jan-12 27492 27222 1.009918 1.019935272 0.0085725

21-Jan-12 27524 27475 1.001783 1.00357006 0.00154767

23-Jan-12 27594 27408 1.006786 1.013618734 0.00587474

24-Jan-12 27533 27342 1.006986 1.014019978 0.00604652

25-Jan-12 27655 27170 1.017851 1.036019784 0.01536814

27-Jan-12 28084 27580 1.018274 1.036882167 0.01572934

28-Jan-12 28013 27975 1.001358 1.002718556 0.00117924

30-Jan-12 28094 27845 1.008942 1.017964685 0.00773285

31-Jan-12 28199 28044 1.005527 1.011084606 0.00478767


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61

VOLATILITY OF GOLD FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2011

TABLE 5.3

Date High price Lowprice

(H/L) (H/L)2

Log Sum of log 1/n sqrt K*n

1-Feb-12 28244 27997 1.008822 1.017722582 0.00762941 0.132905209 0.005316208 0.072912 0.043

2-Feb-12 28200 28040 1.005706 1.011444828 0.0049422

3-Feb-12 28233 27445 1.028712 1.058248316 0.02458759

4-Feb-12 27765 27500 1.009636 1.019365587 0.00832997

6-Feb-12 28950 28950 1 1 0

7-Feb-12 0 0 0 0 0

8-Feb-12 29367 29260 1.003657 1.007327112 0.00317052

9-Feb-12 29419 29300 1.004061 1.008139362 0.00352057

10-Feb-12 29330 29138 1.006589 1.013222086 0.00570465

11-Feb-12 29294 29254 1.001367 1.002736538 0.00118684

13-Feb-12 29185 29117 1.002335 1.004676265 0.00202614

14-Feb-12 29104 28989 1.003967 1.007949781 0.00343889

15-Feb-12 29293 29180 1.003873 1.007760027 0.00335713

16-Feb-12 29236 29140 1.003294 1.006599735 0.00285681

17-Feb-12 29220 29109 1.003813 1.007641048 0.00330585

18-Feb-12 0 0 0 0 0

20-Feb-12 29156 29156 1 1 0

21-Feb-12 29465 29282 1.00625 1.012538203 0.00541142

22-Feb-12 29700 29498 1.006848 1.013742738 0.00592776

23-Feb-12 29968 29773 1.00655 1.013142013 0.00567033

24-Feb-12 29820 29725 1.003196 1.00640214 0.00277155

25-Feb-12 29746 29715 1.001043 1.002087577 0.00090568

27-Feb-12 29781 29688 1.003133 1.006274971 0.00271667

28-Feb-12 29988 29780 1.006985 1.014017891 0.00604562

29-Feb-12 30017 29018 1.034427 1.070039027 0.02939962


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62

VOLATILITY RESULT OF GOLD

CHART 5.1

DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY

0.050637

0.050343

0.04382

GOLD

VALUES

MONTH VALUES

DECEMBER 0.050637

JANUARY 0.050343

FEBRUARY 0.04382


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63

INTERPRETATION

Theabove table and charts reveals the volatility of Gold

The volatility of the gold is high in December for 0.050637and low in February

for 0.04382. The standard error is high in December and low in February. The chance of

arbitrage starts from the December month to advise the investors.


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64

VOLATILITY OF SILVER FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2011

TABLE 5.4

Date High

price

Low

price

(H/L) (H/L)2

Log

Sum of

log

1/n sqrt K*n

1-Dec-11 55950 54806 1.020874 1.042183 0.017944 0.227874 0.009115 0.095473 0.057379

2-Dec-11 56005 54515 1.027332 1.055411 0.023422

3-Dec-11 55288 55096 1.003485 1.006982 0.003022

5-Dec-11 55653 54850 1.01464 1.029494 0.012624

6-Dec-11 0 0 0 0 0

7-Dec-11 60650 60400 1.004139 1.008295 0.003588

8-Dec-11 59901 59525 1.006317 1.012673 0.005469

9-Dec-11 0 0 0 0 0

10-Dec-11 0 0 0 0 0

12-Dec-11 59851 59851 1 1 0

13-Dec-11 59800 59800 1 1 0

14-Dec-11 59602 58006 1.027514 1.055786 0.023576

15-Dec-11 57256 56000 1.022429 1.04536 0.019266

16-Dec-11 57083 56820 1.004629 1.009279 0.004011

17-Dec-11 0 0 0 0 0

19-Dec-11 56450 56343 1.001899 1.003802 0.001648

20-Dec-11 56803 56585 1.003853 1.00772 0.00334

21-Dec-11 0 0 0 0 0

22-Dec-11 56273 56182 1.00162 1.003242 0.001406

23-Dec-11 56602 56309 1.005203 1.010434 0.004508

24-Dec-11 58760 56497 1.040055 1.081715 0.034113

26-Dec-11 56449 56449 1 1 0

27-Dec-11 56399 56144 1.004542 1.009104 0.003936

28-Dec-11 55750 53608 1.039957 1.08151 0.034031

29-Dec-11 54012 52060 1.037495 1.076396 0.031972


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65

VOLATILITY OF SILVER FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012

TABLE 5.5

Date High

Price

Low

price

(H/L) (H/L)2

Log Sum of

log

1/n sqrt K*n

2-Jan-12 51381 51000 1.007471 1.014997 0.006465 0.378196 0.015128 0.122996 0.07392

3-Jan-12 53500 51493 1.038976 1.079471 0.033211

4-Jan-12 53420 52260 1.022197 1.044886 0.019069

5-Jan-12 52988 51861 1.021731 1.043935 0.018673

6-Jan-12 52758 51548 1.023473 1.047498 0.020153

7-Jan-12 51892 51688 1.003947 1.007909 0.003421

9-Jan-12 52150 51366 1.015263 1.030759 0.013157

10-Jan-12 53019 51755 1.024423 1.049442 0.020958

11-Jan-12 52968 52230 1.01413 1.028459 0.012187

12-Jan-12 53400 52603 1.015151 1.030532 0.013061

13-Jan-12 52600 51871 1.014054 1.028306 0.012122

14-Jan-12 52172 52100 1.001382 1.002766 0.0012

16-Jan-12 52475 52056 1.008049 1.016163 0.006963

17-Jan-12 53874 52392 1.028287 1.057374 0.024228

18-Jan-12 53515 52845 1.012679 1.025518 0.010943

19-Jan-12 53860 53232 1.011797 1.023734 0.010187

20-Jan-12 55024 53170 1.034869 1.070954 0.029771

21-Jan-12 55879 55040 1.015243 1.030719 0.01314

23-Jan-12 56490 55232 1.022777 1.046072 0.019562

24-Jan-12 55949 55235 1.012927 1.02602 0.011156

25-Jan-12 56585 54671 1.035009 1.071244 0.029889

27-Jan-12 57396 56573 1.014548 1.029307 0.012545

28-Jan-12 57450 57183 1.004669 1.00936 0.004046

30-Jan-12 57145 56425 1.01276 1.025683 0.011013

31-Jan-12 57490 56112 1.024558 1.049719 0.021073


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66

VOLATILITY OF SILVER FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2012

TABLE 5.6

Date High

price

Low

price

(H/L) (H/L)2 Log Sum of

Log

1/n sqrt K*n

1-Feb-12 57168 56356 1.014408 1.029024 0.012426 0.371562 0.014862 0.12191 0.073268

2-Feb-12 57381 56326 1.01873 1.037811 0.016118

3-Feb-12 57370 55650 1.030907 1.06277 0.026439

4-Feb-12 56178 55901 1.004955 1.009935 0.004293

6-Feb-12 56539 55675 1.015519 1.031278 0.013376

7-Feb-12 57400 56011 1.024799 1.050212 0.021277

8-Feb-12 57777 56689 1.019192 1.038753 0.016512

9-Feb-12 57724 56831 1.015713 1.031673 0.013542

10-Feb-12 57375 56378 1.017684 1.035681 0.015226

11-Feb-12 56951 56794 1.002764 1.005536 0.002398

13-Feb-12 57038 56433 1.010721 1.021556 0.009262

14-Feb-12 56956 56220 1.013091 1.026354 0.011297

15-Feb-12 56975 56250 1.012889 1.025944 0.011124

16-Feb-12 56396 55551 1.015211 1.030654 0.013113

17-Feb-12 56499 55781 1.012872 1.025909 0.011109

18-Feb-12 56133 55932 1.003594 1.0072 0.003116

20-Feb-12 56410 56211 1.00354 1.007093 0.00307

21-Feb-12 57300 56242 1.018812 1.037977 0.016188

22-Feb-12 57448 56856 1.010412 1.020933 0.008997

23-Feb-12 58784 57218 1.027369 1.055487 0.023453

24-Feb-12 58888 58254 1.010883 1.021885 0.009402

25-Feb-12 58487 58364 1.002107 1.004219 0.001829

27-Feb-12 58850 58311 1.009244 1.018573 0.007992

28-Feb-12 61119 58525 1.044323 1.09061 0.03767

29-Feb-12 61488 57230 1.074402 1.154339 0.062333


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67

VOLATILITY RESULT OF SILVER

MONTH VALUES

DECEMBER 0.057379

JANUARY 0.073921

FEBRUARY 0.073268

CHART 5.2


0.057379

0.073921 0.073268

SILVER

VALUES


68/83


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69

VOLATILITY OF ALUMINIUM FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2011

TABLE 5.7

Date High

Price

Low

price

(H/L) (H/L)2

Log Sum of log 1/n sqrt K*n

1-Dec-11 112.1 110.35 1.015859 1.031969 0.013667 0.159682 0.006387 0.079919 0.048031

2-Dec-11 112.6 111.8 1.007156 1.014362 0.006193

3-Dec-11 111.6 111.6 1 1 0

5-Dec-11 111.6 110.5 1.009955 1.020009 0.008604

6-Dec-11 111.35 111 1.003153 1.006316 0.002734

7-Dec-11 112.1 109.8 1.020947 1.042333 0.018006

8-Dec-11 110.65 109.6 1.00958 1.019252 0.008282

9-Dec-11 110.75 110 1.006818 1.013683 0.005902

10-Dec-11 0 0 0 0 0

12-Dec-11 110.35 109.55 1.007303 1.014659 0.00632

13-Dec-11 110.7 110.1 1.00545 1.010929 0.004721

14-Dec-11 110.6 109.05 1.014214 1.028629 0.012259

15-Dec-11 109.75 108.4 1.012454 1.025063 0.010751

16-Dec-11 108.5 107.85 1.006027 1.01209 0.005219

17-Dec-11 108.3 108.3 1 1 0

19-Dec-11 108.3 106.8 1.014045 1.028287 0.012114

20-Dec-11 108.6 107.45 1.010703 1.02152 0.009247

21-Dec-11 108.75 107.5 1.011628 1.023391 0.010042

22-Dec-11 108.55 107.5 1.009767 1.01963 0.008443

23-Dec-11 109 108.7 1.00276 1.005527 0.002394

24-Dec-11 0 0 0 0 0

26-Dec-11 109 108.8 1.001838 1.00368 0.001595

27-Dec-11 108.6 108.45 1.001383 1.002768 0.0012

28-Dec-11 109.35 108.5 1.007834 1.01573 0.006778

29-Dec-11 108.65 108 1.006019 1.012073 0.005212


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70

VOLATILITY OF ALUMINIUM FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012

TABLE 5.8

Date High

price

Low

price


log

1/n sqrt K*n

2-Jan-12 110.05 110.05 1 1 0 0.140016 0.005601 0.07484 0.044979

3-Jan-12 111.1 110.1 1.009083 1.018248 0.007854

4-Jan-12 112.25 111.1 1.010351 1.020809 0.008944

5-Jan-12 111.25 110.05 1.010904 1.021927 0.00942

6-Jan-12 111 110.15 1.007717 1.015493 0.006677

7-Jan-12 0 0 0 0 0

9-Jan-12 112.9 111.9 1.008937 1.017953 0.007728

10-Jan-12 113.4 112.8 1.005319 1.010667 0.004608

11-Jan-12 113.8 113.25 1.004857 1.009737 0.004208

12-Jan-12 114.85 113.25 1.014128 1.028456 0.012186

13-Jan-12 113.15 112 1.010268 1.020641 0.008873

14-Jan-12 112.9 112.9 1 1 0

16-Jan-12 112.85 112.85 1 1 0

17-Jan-12 114.65 113.8 1.007469 1.014994 0.006463

18-Jan-12 113.9 113 1.007965 1.015993 0.006891

19-Jan-12 113.9 113.3 1.005296 1.010619 0.004587

20-Jan-12 113.75 112.9 1.007529 1.015114 0.006515

21-Jan-12 0 0 0 0 0

23-Jan-12 113.55 112.9 1.005757 1.011548 0.004986

24-Jan-12 113.9 113.8 1.000879 1.001758 0.000763

25-Jan-12 113.75 113.35 1.003529 1.00707 0.00306

27-Jan-12 114.25 113.2 1.009276 1.018637 0.008019

28-Jan-12 113.5 113.5 1 1 0

30-Jan-12 114.1 112.65 1.012872 1.025909 0.011109

31-Jan-12 115.25 113 1.019912 1.040219 0.017125


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71

VOLATILITY OF ALUMINIUM FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2012

TABLE 5.9

Date High

price

Log

price


log

1/n sqrt K*n

1-Feb-12 113.95 111.8 1.019231 1.038831 0.016545 0.282207 0.011288 0.106245 0.006385

2-Feb-12 113.05 110 1.027727 1.056223 0.023756

3-Feb-12 111.1 109.4 1.015539 1.03132 0.013393

4-Feb-12 0 0 0 0 0

6-Feb-12 111.4 110.3 1.009973 1.020045 0.008619

7-Feb-12 112.15 109.8 1.021403 1.043263 0.018394

8-Feb-12 113.5 111.85 1.014752 1.029721 0.01272

9-Feb-12 114.1 112.2 1.016934 1.034155 0.014586

10-Feb-12 114.25 111.85 1.021457 1.043375 0.01844

11-Feb-12 113 112.5 1.004444 1.008909 0.003852

13-Feb-12 112.65 110.7 1.017615 1.035541 0.015167

14-Feb-12 111.15 110.1 1.009537 1.019165 0.008245

15-Feb-12 111.5 110.15 1.012256 1.024662 0.010581

16-Feb-12 110.2 108.6 1.014733 1.029683 0.012704

17-Feb-12 109.25 108 1.011574 1.023282 0.009995

18-Feb-12 108.35 108.15 1.001849 1.003702 0.001605

20-Feb-12 108.95 108.3 1.006002 1.01204 0.005198

21-Feb-12 111.1 109.15 1.017865 1.03605 0.015381

22-Feb-12 112.75 111.1 1.014851 1.029924 0.012805

23-Feb-12 112.8 112 1.007143 1.014337 0.006182

24-Feb-12 111.9 109.4 1.022852 1.046226 0.019626

25-Feb-12 111.8 111.45 1.00314 1.006291 0.002724

27-Feb-12 112.85 111.4 1.013016 1.026202 0.011233

28-Feb-12 113.3 111.7 1.014324 1.028853 0.012353

29-Feb-12 113.05 112 1.009375 1.018838 0.008105


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72

VOLATILITY RESULT OF ALUMINUM

CHART 5.3


0.050637

0.050343

0.04382

ALUMINIUM

VALUES

MONTH VALUES

DECEMBER 0.048031

JANUARY 0.044979

FEBRUARY 0.006385


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73

INTERPRETATION

Theabove table and charts reveals the volatility of Aluminium

The volatility of the gold is high in December for 0.050637and low in February

for 0.04382. The standard error is high in December and low in February. The chance of

arbitrage starts from the February month to advise the investors.


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74

VOLATILITY OF COPPER FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2011

TABLE 5.10

Date High

price

Low

price


log

1/n sqrt K*n

1-Dec-11 420 410.6 1.02289 1.046311 0.019661 0.27934 0.01117 0.105706 0.063529

2-Dec-11 418.45 411.9 1.0159 1.032057 0.013704

3-Dec-11 415.5 414.9 1.00145 1.002894 0.001255

5-Dec-11 420.6 415.1 1.01325 1.026675 0.011433

6-Dec-11 416.9 413.5 1.00834 1.016758 0.007218

7-Dec-11 419.8 414 1.01401 1.028216 0.012084

8-Dec-11 419.25 412.5 1.01636 1.032995 0.014098

9-Dec-11 420 411.9 1.01966 1.039717 0.016915

10-Dec-11 420.25 419.7 1.00131 1.002623 0.001138

12-Dec-11 416.7 413.5 1.00774 1.015538 0.006696

13-Dec-11 418.45 415 1.00843 1.016941 0.007296

14-Dec-11 414.75 402.3 1.03108 1.063116 0.026581

15-Dec-11 404.65 395.6 1.02301 1.046541 0.019756

16-Dec-11 402.55 395.2 1.01873 1.037805 0.016116

17-Dec-11 400.95 399.5 1.00376 1.007524 0.003256

19-Dec-11 400 394.6 1.01368 1.027557 0.011806

20-Dec-11 405.65 397.1 1.02166 1.043789 0.018613

21-Dec-11 408.5 401.5 1.01743 1.035173 0.015013

22-Dec-11 408.75 403.9 1.01201 1.02416 0.010368

23-Dec-11 414 409.9 1.01013 1.020354 0.008751

24-Dec-11 414.5 414.1 1.00097 1.001933 0.000839

26-Dec-11 414.4 413.8 1.00157 1.003144 0.001363

27-Dec-11 412.9 410 1.00707 1.014196 0.006122

28-Dec-11 413.8 406.9 1.01696 1.034203 0.014606

29-Dec-11 409.35 402.5 1.01702 1.034327 0.014658


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VOLATILITY OF COPPER FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012

TABLE 5.11

Date High

price

Low

price

(H/L) (H/L)2

Log Sum of

log

1/n sqrt K*n

2-Jan-11 418 410.5 1.01827 1.036875 0.015726 0.30847 0.01234 0.11108 0.066759

3-Jan-11 419 412 1.01699 1.034269 0.014634

4-Jan-11 416.25 406.8 1.02323 1.047 0.019947

5-Jan-11 410.9 402.6 1.02062 1.041657 0.017725

6-Jan-11 408 402.6 1.01354 1.027261 0.011681

7-Jan-11 406.05 405.5 1.00136 1.002715 0.001177

9-Jan-11 405 400.9 1.01023 1.020559 0.008838

10-Jan-11 408.15 401.7 1.01606 1.032371 0.013836

11-Jan-11 411.5 405.7 1.01442 1.029051 0.012437

12-Jan-11 422.4 409.6 1.03125 1.063477 0.026728

13-Jan-11 423.9 415.2 1.02095 1.042347 0.018012

14-Jan-11 420.85 419.1 1.00418 1.008369 0.003619

16-Jan-11 423.2 417.8 1.01292 1.026017 0.011154

17-Jan-11 427.95 422 1.0141 1.028398 0.012161

18-Jan-11 425.2 420.2 1.0119 1.02394 0.010274

19-Jan-11 429.2 424.3 1.01167 1.023471 0.010076

20-Jan-11 430.2 420.3 1.02355 1.047664 0.020222

21-Jan-11 422.05 421.2 1.00214 1.004279 0.001854

23-Jan-11 426.65 419 1.01826 1.036849 0.015715

24-Jan-11 426.5 421.4 1.0121 1.024352 0.010449

25-Jan-11 428.6 422.6 1.0142 1.028597 0.012245

27-Jan-11 434 428.1 1.01378 1.027754 0.011889

28-Jan-11 429.9 428.9 1.00245 1.004903 0.002124

30-Jan-11 428.05 423.3 1.01134 1.02281 0.009795

31-Jan-11 428.8 420.9 1.01877 1.037891 0.016152


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VOLATILITY OF COPPER FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2012

TABLE 5.12

Date High

price

Low

price


Log

1/n sqrt K*n

1-Feb-11 423.9 418.8 1.01218 1.024504 0.010513 0.3312 0.01325 0.1151 0.069175

2-Feb-11 423.1 415.6 1.01817 1.036667 0.015639

3-Feb-11 424.65 414.7 1.02412 1.048815 0.020699

4-Feb-11 425.3 423.8 1.00354 1.007091 0.003069

6-Feb-11 425.25 421.6 1.00866 1.01739 0.007487

7-Feb-11 426.65 419.7 1.01656 1.033393 0.014266

8-Feb-11 432.6 426.2 1.01502 1.030258 0.012946

9-Feb-11 439.6 428.9 1.02495 1.050517 0.021403

10-Feb-11 439.4 429.2 1.02377 1.048095 0.020401

11-Feb-11 430.6 429.5 1.00256 1.005129 0.002222

13-Feb-11 431.4 422.7 1.02058 1.041588 0.017696

14-Feb-11 426.45 421 1.01295 1.026058 0.011172

15-Feb-11 427.05 420.6 1.01546 1.031151 0.013322

16-Feb-11 422.3 416.8 1.01332 1.026812 0.011491

17-Feb-11 422.9 411 1.02895 1.058746 0.024792

18-Feb-11 413.55 412.4 1.00291 1.005829 0.002524

20-Feb-11 416.45 412.2 1.01031 1.020727 0.00891

21-Feb-11 422.2 415.6 1.016 1.032262 0.01379

22-Feb-11 424.1 419.6 1.01084 1.021808 0.009369

23-Feb-11 422 416.7 1.01284 1.025846 0.011082

24-Feb-11 424.35 416.1 1.01995 1.040297 0.017157

25-Feb-11 425.75 422.2 1.00853 1.017128 0.007376

27-Feb-11 427 421.5 1.01305 1.026268 0.011261

28-Feb-11 433 425.3 1.01822 1.036781 0.015687

29-Feb-11 432.4 419.2 1.03149 1.063969 0.026929


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VOLATILITY RESULT OF COPPER

CHART 5.4


0.063529

0.066759

0.069175

COPPERVALUES

MONTH VALUES

DECEMBER 0.063529

JANUARY 0.066759

FEBRUARY 0.069175


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INTERPRETATION

Theabove table and charts reveals the volatility of Aluminum

The volatility of the gold is high in February for 0.069175 and low in December

for 0.063529. The standard error is high in February and low in December. The chance of

arbitrage starts from the February month to advise the investors


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CHAPTER VI

FINDINGS SUGGESTIONS AND CONCLUSION

INTRODUCTION

This chapter deals with findings, suggestions and conclusion.

6.1FINDINGS:

The study is based on the secondary data collected from the MCX website. Moving

average and candle stick chart are used for analysis price fluctuation.

Among the selected commodities, the silver is highly fluctuated compared with othercommodities. After that, the commodity of gold is better than the other two. The

commodity Aluminum is worse than the other commodities.

Among the selected commodities, the silver has the high volatility compared with othersand the gold has the lowest volatility.

Over all the moving average of gold is more, in all other scrip the traders are ready to buyand sell the commodity gold even though it fluctuates intraday.

Finally, aluminum is the best commodity among others in this study. During the period of December all the investors faced a good opportunity to buy and sell

their commodities. But during the period of January and February the investors faced

negative result in their investments due to recession and high level fluctuation.

Among the selected commodities, the copper has the highly volatility compared withothers and the gold has the lowest volatility.


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6.2SUGGESTIONS

Suggestion is based on the, Moving average calculation, Candle stick charts and

Volatility results the market news and company information is considered.

Aluminum is best for the investor who can bear less risk, because the candle stick rate isless and lot size is less.

The investors should limits the risk and earn for high return. The investor who can bear high risk can choose the commodity like silver to get more

return.

Taking high risk one or two days before the expiry date should be more aware about themarket news else there is chance for the trader to lose a lot.

According to risk bearing capacity the traders can trade in commodity market to getmore income.


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6.3CONCLUSION

From the last few months, the dollar has lost its currency value with other

currencies and the investors are shifting their investment to Gold. Hence , the price of the silver

increases gradually in the market. Therefore, there is a high demand for Gold. Due tomismatching of demand and supply of gold, it is estimated that the gold price will soon reach

nearly Rs. 32000 per 10 grams.

In the world market, Silver is also increased gradually in every day. These lead to

the investors to enter into the commodity market for obtaining maximum return on their

investments with safety as well as liquidity.


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BIBLIOGRAPHY

BOOKS

Avadhani.A.V., Investment Management, Bombay, Himalaya Publishing house,1996 S.L. Gupta., Financial Derivatives, Prentice Hall of India Privative Limited, New

Delhi,2005.

S.L. Gupta., Statistical Methods, Sultan Chand & Sons Education Publishers, NewDelhi,Thirty Third, 2004

Hull., Futures, Option and Other Derivatives, Presence Education. Fifth Edition, 1999

WEBSITES

http://www.sharekhan.com/ http://www.bseindia.com/ http://www.google.com/ http://www.ncdex.com/ http://www.mcxindia.com/
http://www.sharekhan.com/http://www.bseindia.com/http://www.ncdex.com/http://www.mcxindia.com/http://www.mcxindia.com/http://www.ncdex.com/http://www.bseindia.com/http://www.sharekhan.com/


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project on commodity exchange

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